Thread by Australian military expert:
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Just read up as I didn't know what happened to him exactly and it seems like we don't really know for sure. But of all the possibilities that caused Gaddafi's death, I highly doubt Putin's death will be close to that. Also I hope he won't be publicly displayed like an animal trophy for everyone to enjoy some voyeurism.
If the main thing the sanctions will do according to her is defund the military and police well that's seems like it will be doing a very great thing
It is as far as Putin's propaganda is concerned, it is 'his truth'.. he uses the 'closeness' between NATO and the Ukraine government as his excuse to justify his special operation, to the Russian people...only the rest of the world refers to it as an invasion of a sovereign country.
This is what I dont get about these dictators. They are dumb as fk. The West tried this dictatorship and oligarchs sht - we just called it Kings, Queens, colonialism, elites, billionaires etc. We already figured it all out years ago. No point keeping slaves just pretend they are free and give them minimum wage. No point colonizing a country just loan them a sht load of cash they cant repay, move in your companies to build their infrastructure at ridiculous rates, move in your mining companies and plunder their natural resources, affect their politics either by straight out bribery or infiltrating politicians etc, make them westernized by sending them our movies and food etc. This whole dictatorship is so old school. They didnt need to bomb the sht out of Ukraine. They just needed to offer a better deal than the West for their resources.
Watching live footage from Prezmysl, I’m so disgusted by the Home Office’s policies relating to refugees. We have friends who have no real connections to go anywhere else in continental Europe and we cannot invite them here. I hope the Opposition real start to tear into the Government next week over this.
China is a step ahead of Russia with this. Issue with the last part is that Russia is unable to offer a better deal than the West and likely don’t want 3m Russian speakers on their direct border being exposed to supposed Western ideals (higher wages and democratic elections relative to the Russian system). Russia is inherently unequal and that suits the current power structure massively. Just massively unsustainable in the long term.
Absolutely NO chance of either of these happening! He has vast majority backing.
If he goes it’ll be with him stepping down on some faux moral front and then being protected in Russia for the rest of his life.
That was my first thought too. Was it just him that did that or did other Russian competitors also do it? If they all did it then it'll be forced from the top. If only he did it then clearly its due to him and his coaches. Hard to really know given it can be used a propaganda stunt whether this was his idea or being forced to do it. If he says no, what happens to his family and career?
I read about him not doing it voluntarily but russian officials that equip the national team did this beforehand.
It is time for the Russian people living in Russia to step up. Sure, the repercussions are scary, but that is still nothing compared to what the Ukrainians are going through. What kind of society do you want to live in? Get out and fight for it.
Is this not a bad thing for the west in the long run?
The second part shows how far you are from understanding the reality of Russian politics. And the first one is certainly not as clear cut as you seem to suggest.
that's a lot easier said than done and I understand it fully. The situation for the russian people needs to worsen a lot more for them to do anything meaningful in that regard
Everyone keeps talking about nuclear Armageddon like china is passively going to watch the end of the world...
If there is a nuclear Armageddon, what can China do?
Man up Russians!
I would imagine that his post suggests an earlier intervention by China.
Of course it is easier said than done, that is the whole point. The "easy way" for Ukraine would have been to lay down their guns and become a puppet state like Belarus. But they didn't, they are fighting for their freedom and f-ing earning it.
I have so far seen this war as Putin vs. Ukraine, not Russia vs Ukraine. In my eyes, Russians and Ukrainians are friends, colleagues and family. But if nothing substantial happens soon, I will be questioning that stance. Are they going to stand up for their friends and family? Or is this war actually Russia vs Ukraine?
At the risk of starting WWIII and ending all human life I wanted to spread this bit of gossip.
This former MI6 chief and associate of Tony Blair fields a question about whether the UK will be looking into clandestine ways to directly help Ukraine that will fall short of escalating broader armed conflict, and mentions MI6 and "cyber-capabilities".
He responds, "Its the sort of question I find hard to answer, and I hope you'll understand my reasons for that. It's important we don't allow Putin to frame this as the west trying to topple his regime, and some of the things you mention could come close to that."
This former MI6 chief and associate of Tony Blair fields a question about whether the UK will be looking into clandestine ways to directly help Ukraine that will fall short of escalating broader armed conflict, and mentions MI6 and "cyber-capabilities".
He responds, "Its the sort of question I find hard to answer, and I hope you'll understand my reasons for that. It's important we don't allow Putin to frame this as the west trying to topple his regime, and some of the things you mention could come close to that."
I obviously won't argue against her knowledge of Russia. But these analyses that simplify everything to the extreme and state things in absolutes always irk me.
For example she describes oligarchs and strongmen almost as if they were a single person and Putin is the only person who could ever be in charge for them.
It's similar to others, who state that the public will never make a difference, because of the oppressive police force.
I think reality is so complex with so many interconnected moving parts, that you can't really predict it in such a short text (or maybe at all). For example they must be playing the blame game internally, who knows what people will do when they have to fear that it will be them, who have to carry the weight for certain failures? Some generals must be absolutely livid, seeing the logistical failures and the loss of (Russian) life and equipment, as well as the Russian army's reputation in general. Some strategist must be livid that over night Russia made the rest of Europe rally around Nato and Germany arm itself / push to emancipate itself from Russian energy. The economic consequences of sanctions, combined with friends and family getting locked up will see public discontent grow over time. Someone will have to (indirectly) pay for this war and the sanctions, they will be pissed off.
Any of these factors can probably be explained away on its own, but who knows what happens when they combine with each other? For example she says herself that it will only be a matter of weeks, before the state can't pay its employees anymore. What would that mean for the effectiveness of the police state that is the reason why strong men won't desert Putin, according to her own words? How would that play into protests? How would these potential protests exert pressure on middle management? How would middle management deal with that pressure?
Not sure Putin would be so happy to be referred to as 'Little Putin' -- it may be a bit insulting if you ask me culturally from a Chinese's perspective.
Do people use Tot browsers in Russia or just VPNs to bypass the authorities?
I hope that cnut suffers a career ending injury.
John fecking Daly.
To my surprise there were Russians publicly voiced their complaints on live TV shows and Youtube vids. I didn't know about Russia very much before this war. I thought they were still in an era where if you said something bad about the government, you or your family member will disappear. But most would rather shut up I reckon. It's easy to say this from the outside but if you live there you probably wouldn't take the risk.
I was thinking this earlier.
I'd imagine all "kingship" and elite "nobles" are started and led by a figurehead who is persuasive to both the close elite and the wider population. And any decent salesman or psychologist would tell you that persuasion is in using nuances in language to allow the listener to uncover the "truth" themselves. He must be doing this in Russian to Russians.
To start a movement with a locked in figurehead, that figurehead has to be eloquent in the different types of persuasion for both the "elite" level and at the "pleb" level, and when Putin did his switch between President and PM and back again, he declared himself to be, and was accepted as, the locked in figurehead.
You could say he was coronated as "King" for life, not by hailing him, but by not revolting enough when he usurped the throne.
So, if he got himself to "King" status, he must have had have that unique persuasion style for both the "elites" and the "plebs", in Russian, so we don't know to what degree he has his elites enthralled.
I think we have to stop looking at Russian as anything other that the Putinian Empire, a monarchy with supreme power.
I don't know the chain of command between him and the red button, but he's had time enough to position his most fanatical, zealot supporters into those positions.
Don't know if this remix of a Ukrainian folk song has been shared here. Amazing listen and all royalties go towards supporting Ukraine
Yeah I agree, the fact that she says they won't be able to pay the police or military as if that won't have any effect on Putin or his allies is a bit bizarre. The assumption that the elites control everything and that can never change no matter how extreme the social and economic circumstances get has been proved wrong time after time throughout history. Ok technology advances and insurgency might arguably be more difficult now but eventually if the people are poor and unhappy and continue to get moreso, eventually the people you rely on to enforce your authority will turn.
Depends on your technical prowess & previous experience with technology. Most use VPN.
Unconfirmed reports that missile came out of Transnistria