Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

ShoePolish said:
Ok read last bit too, not much to add apart from his thoughts on whether Putin could press the red button:
He says no and gives 3 reasons -
1. There is no "red button", but a chain of command. It won't be just Putin blowing shit himself,
2. Few doubts about whether it properly functions (chain of command i think). My lack of russian forbids me translating this, but think he means there might be breaks in that chain, where somebody doesn't really know how and what to do exactly (not sure on this),
3. He doesn't believe that somebody, who is afraid to let his closest advisors and ministers, be it because of covid or assassination attempt, is going to off himself like that. If you're that scared to die, how are you going to kill yourself and everyone around you like that?
Click to expand...

Thanks. I do wonder if, given abject failure of the invasion and attempts to seize Kyiv or other major targets, Putin tries to use tactical nukes and the military command staff refuses. Rather than the oligarchs rising up, I can only really see potential for the military chain of command or FSB to try to end the war and potentially depose Putin.
 
ShoePolish said:
Mentions Kadyrov built an all conquering powerful figure, but if things start going south, chechens are likely to take him out themselves.
Also important point I missed, says a "localized" nuclear explosion might be possible in Ukraine, but need to find a way how to pin it on them.

Don't know validity of the letter, but I take Cristo Grozev as a reputable source.
Click to expand...

Agreed on Grozev. He's been fantastic over time, even before the invasion.

Kadyrov probably knows he is fecked if Putin gets deposed.
 
Sky News leading on their website with a report from a Mariupol hospital. Text (and video) covering the moment an 18 month old child was brought to the emergency room having been struck with shrapnel. Doctors were unable to save the child's life. Warning: the video is graphic on the website.
 
Right now the one thing I worry about is a localised nuclear bomb in Kiev. The west need to increase rhetoric and sanctions, the weaker it looks the more likely Russian will do it.

They’ll probably spin it off ala the Americans, “weapons of mass distraction”.
 
ShoePolish said:
Seen a report yesterday or 2 days ago, saying they went in, got to first checkpoint/town/village and are refusing to go further. They were meant to link up on Kyiv front.
Click to expand...

It could well be true, because those troops will have had a lot more access to social media than the Russians - and seen more of the reality of what they'd be going into.
 
ShoePolish said:
Ok read last bit too, not much to add apart from his thoughts on whether Putin could press the red button:
He says no and gives 3 reasons -
1. There is no "red button", but a chain of command. It won't be just Putin blowing shit himself,
2. Few doubts about whether it properly functions (chain of command i think). My lack of russian forbids me translating this, but think he means there might be breaks in that chain, where somebody doesn't really know how and what to do exactly (not sure on this),
3. He doesn't believe that somebody, who is afraid to let his closest advisors and ministers, be it because of covid or assassination attempt, is going to off himself like that. If you're that scared to die, how are you going to kill yourself and everyone around you like that?
Click to expand...
Your efforts here are appreciated
 
I don’t believe the sabotage bs. But the state of German defence in general seems to be horrendous.

 
Carolina Red said:
The performance of Ukrainian air defenses vs Russian air power has been astonishing
Click to expand...

Can we however assume if they didn't have US/NATO equipment and more importantly intel (knowing exactly when, where and how many Russians are coming) that this battle would have been a lot different?
 
atkar83 said:
Can we however assume if they didn't have US/NATO equipment and more importantly intel (knowing exactly when, where and how many Russians are coming) that this battle would have been a lot different?
Click to expand...
NATO assistance has definitely helped shape the battle… but even with that assistance, it’s still astonishing considering the relative size of the Russian Air Force compared to what the Ukrainians have at their disposal. That Russia has yet to establish full air superiority is a feat unto itself.
 
atkar83 said:
Can we however assume if they didn't have US/NATO equipment and more importantly intel (knowing exactly when, where and how many Russians are coming) that this battle would have been a lot different?
Click to expand...
Imagine what would happen if Russia actually went up against NATO and not just Ukrainians being coached by them on the fly.
 
Every statement I've seen from Putin is moving me closer to rejecting the null hypothesis that he is sane or acting rationally (p > 0.06)

He said Ukraine is at danger of losing its statehood? What kind of statement is that? There is no feasible way that happens :wenger:
 
How long do we think does the Russian army have to remain bogged down in Ukraine before some of the other regions which have been peacekept by Russia start getting ideas?
 
Make sure you carry some change in your pocket for the Londongrad lads who may need it:

 
Unbelievable!!! Trump in his second term would take US out of NATO, that's what Putin was waiting to invade Ukraine, says John Bolton.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.