Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

What percentage of the Russian army are conscripts as distinct from volunteer professionals?
 
Interesting article. The lack of air-force is just one of a few things that is difficult to explain with the information we have. This leaves me open to the idea their are serious issues within their ranks we don't know about.

Probably wishful thinking on my part.
Or they need to do CAS and on every other rooftop there is s guy with a stinger?
 
Damn some right wing groups/organizations gathered in Serbia and suddenly those numbers represent whole country. Guess only in Serbia right wing fecks are pricks.

Found some reactions to it a bit amusing, some are really scary.
 
Damn some right wing groups/organizations gathered in Serbia and suddenly those numbers represent whole country. Guess only in Serbia right wing fecks are pricks.

Found some reactions to it a bit amusing, some are really scary.
I get your point, but have you seen similar demonstrations by other countries right wing groups? In those numbers?
 
Damn some right wing groups/organizations gathered in Serbia and suddenly those numbers represent whole country. Guess only in Serbia right wing fecks are pricks.

Found some reactions to it a bit amusing, some are really scary.

It's not just the right wing groups though. The Serbian president is very sympathetic to Russia and refuses to implement sanctions.
 
It is nice to read such a positive thread, but it suggests that they have almost eliminated the ground forces which is not the case even though they have suffered many casualties.
I think it is also not clear what % of their air force they have used.
The hypotheses about independence movements in all those territories also seem a bit utopian.

They haven't eliminated, but tied up a significant number. Ofcourse on the south some parts of the Russian army are still moving and advancing. But I'm a firm believer the longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Russia, if Ukraine can hold on to their east. If Mariopol and Kharkiv can stay for a month or two (it might happen Mariopol falls in a few days, but siege of Sarajevo was, what for years) in Ukranian hands, I can see Ukranians launching a counter offensive, particularly if they are still backed by the west. It might be optimistic, but at the end of it all, I won't be surprised if Ukranians retake Crimea (although that would be very hard).

Russian military is in disarray, poor communication, poor logistic and no supply. The only thing working properly for them is now artillery and air superiority (but they are not demonstrating the latter). I might be wrong, but I don't think artillery alone wins you a war. You need infantry. And the more time passes Ukraine will have advantage in manpower. Volunteers from abroad are coming plus their own mobilization efforts. To have any chance, I believe Russians need to speed up on eastern and southeastern front and cut off the forces from there with the western Ukraine. But they have to be quick, because with every day Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia weaker. Although in Kharkiv and Mariopol Russian positions are getting better with every day. So it's kinda race against the time for both forces. Ukraine needs to buy time, for their mobilization efforts and arming from west to kick in.

Also a good point is that if Russia overcommits in Ukraine, all the *stan regions might get ideas about independence and there might be a full scale revolt. Don't know how that is realistic.

Of course, all of this is my opinion and I might be completely wrong. In that case please correct me, but I do base it a lot on Yugoslavia war in the 90s which was similarly asymmetric and quite similar in propaganda I believe. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised by similar results.
 
Apologies. I'll explain.

Weapons amu factory goes off. Raul states a thermo bomb had gone off. But posts video that had been recorded several days previously. Look at the panic. In those posts afterwards..

sounds like a genuine mistake and not something to get all worked up about
 
thanks, nice article.
His theory seems quite reasonable. Something like planes that have been for decoration and as he says, seeing how the situation was, they could have used them before.
In fact, on the first day of the war, a video appeared of a plane, alone and flying very low as he also said (a video in which a girl is heard crying)
 
Attacking clearly marked and identified press is outrageous. It’s the sort of thing that could escalate this. A country whose press have been attacked would be well within their rights to retaliate.

They probably have no idea they're press considering they're shouting in English to Russians, but they clearly aren't army. Modern body armour is amazing.
 
Attacking clearly marked and identified press is outrageous. It’s the sort of thing that could escalate this. A country whose press have been attacked would be well within their rights to retaliate.

Pity the weather man no longer has those little sun and rain magnets for the map, could use them as ninja stars on those scummy russians
 
Interesting article. The lack of air-force is just one of a few things that is difficult to explain with the information we have. This leaves me open to the idea their are serious issues within their ranks we don't know about.

Probably wishful thinking on my part.

I don't think it's too wishful thinking. I mean we see what is happening with their ground forces.
 
I get your point, but have you seen similar demonstrations by other countries right wing groups? In those numbers?

Nope, didnt look for it nor i care about them, always thought that extreme right act in same way just with different agenda in different countries.
 
They probably have no idea they're press considering they're shouting in English to Russians, but they clearly aren't army. Modern body armour is amazing.

I think you can hear one of them screaming in Russian in the beginning of the video.
 
It's not just the right wing groups though. The Serbian president is very sympathetic to Russia and refuses to implement sanctions.
Serbia is traditionally close to Russia. Both are slavic orthodox countries using cyrillic. I'd say Serbia sees Russia as their big brother who protects them. As far as I understand, Russia is right now the only major player supporting Serbia on Kosovo issue, which is of vital importance to them. Basically, Serbia can't afford to turn away from Russia because of national(istic) interests. Of course, EU and USA might not like it, so Serbia might suffer serious consequences. Their neighbors are always willing to pounce on stuff like that for political gain. So Serbia needs to tread carefully and play both sides. They've been trying to do it for some time, but not sure if it's possible after this war.
 
It's not just the right wing groups though. The Serbian president is very sympathetic to Russia and refuses to implement sanctions.

Dunno how you know that but thats funny because they were also chanting that Serbian president is Albanian and he betrayed Russia, so go figure now. Refusal of implementing sanctions might not be due sympathy. More like our views towards sanctions because we felt it on our own skin in the past, same goes why Serbia voted vs Russia when it comes to invasion and supports Ukranian sovereignty, yes you can say its due Kosovo but when it comes to politics, we are really dumb, they really believe in international law while all big players call on upon it and ignore it when it fits them.
 
How do you see the video's if they don't survive?

Well, one surviver.

Dad+son where they come under fire from up the road. Dad gets out of driver side and is riddled with bullets, son gets out other side and escapes.
Couple leaving mariupul find cars of dead bodies, try to help before getting ambushed themselves, guy survives, wife dies.
Then there's multiple instances of others being found dead in their cars.
 
Serbia is traditionally close to Russia. Both are slavic orthodox countries using cyrillic. I'd say Serbia sees Russia as their big brother who protects them. As far as I understand, Russia is right now the only major player supporting Serbia on Kosovo issue, which is of vital importance to them. Basically, Serbia can't afford to turn away from Russia because of national(istic) interests. Of course, EU and USA might not like it, so Serbia might suffer serious consequences. Their neighbors are always willing to pounce on stuff like that for political gain. So Serbia needs to tread carefully and play both sides. They've been trying to do it for some time, but not sure if it's possible after this war.

And this is exactly reason why we getting fecked in politics, Greeks are brothers, Russians are brothers, when in reality their gov, aint, today we good, tomorrow they gonna sell you out for their own interest and they still dont get that.

Edit: Will leave thread now, dont wanna derail it with non Ukraine stuff. Here is regarding Ratko Mladic, they wrote that he is a hero, then citizen gathered and started covering with signs that he is war criminal. https://www.blic.rs/vesti/beograd/p...mladicu-policija-legitimise-okupljene/ez831pf
 
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Extremely optimistic opinion, but let us dream for a minute.

The incompetance, defeats and lack of progress could be signs of deeper rooted problems within the Russian military that we aren't aware of just yet... maybe.


Nuclear-laced optimism.

I really don’t know. I knew the spirit and the fight of the Ukrainian people would serve them in good stead. I’ve seen the opposition with my own eyes to Putin’s Russia for over a decade, especially post-Maidan. Rationally though a well-oiled Russia should overpower them, especially if they are willing to follow a path of maximum destruction, nuclear or otherwise. Have they really fecked up so badly?

Ukraine has to prevail or this world is going to be a horrible place to live in.
 
I believe they still had more casualties than the enemy in every battle almost till the end. Not necessary due to competence, but also leadership.

Plus the West helped them a lot. Basically all their trucks were American made. But for the Russians, the myth is that they beat the Nazis basically alone.
 
Well, one surviver.

Dad+son where they come under fire from up the road. Dad gets out of driver side and is riddled with bullets, son gets out other side and escapes.
Couple leaving mariupul find cars of dead bodies, try to help before getting ambushed themselves, guy survives, wife dies.
Then there's multiple instances of others being found dead in their cars.

That's sad