Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

They haven't eliminated, but tied up a significant number. Ofcourse on the south some parts of the Russian army are still moving and advancing. But I'm a firm believer the longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Russia, if Ukraine can hold on to their east. If Mariopol and Kharkiv can stay for a month or two (it might happen Mariopol falls in a few days, but siege of Sarajevo was, what for years) in Ukranian hands, I can see Ukranians launching a counter offensive, particularly if they are still backed by the west. It might be optimistic, but at the end of it all, I won't be surprised if Ukranians retake Crimea (although that would be very hard).

Russian military is in disarray, poor communication, poor logistic and no supply. The only thing working properly for them is now artillery and air superiority (but they are not demonstrating the latter). I might be wrong, but I don't think artillery alone wins you a war. You need infantry. And the more time passes Ukraine will have advantage in manpower. Volunteers from abroad are coming plus their own mobilization efforts. To have any chance, I believe Russians need to speed up on eastern and southeastern front and cut off the forces from there with the western Ukraine. But they have to be quick, because with every day Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia weaker. Although in Kharkiv and Mariopol Russian positions are getting better with every day. So it's kinda race against the time for both forces. Ukraine needs to buy time, for their mobilization efforts and arming from west to kick in.

Also a good point is that if Russia overcommits in Ukraine, all the *stan regions might get ideas about independence and there might be a full scale revolt. Don't know how that is realistic.

Of course, all of this is my opinion and I might be completely wrong. In that case please correct me, but I do base it a lot on Yugoslavia war in the 90s which was similarly asymmetric and quite similar in propaganda I believe. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised by similar results.

Don't worry my friend,I won´t correct you, your theories are perfectly valid. I am certainly not an expert and am basing myself on bits of information here and there.
A few days ago I also thought about some kind of counterattack (when the mega convoy was getting closer). Looking at the map, I assumed that they would try to put pressure on Vinnytsia, Kirovograd, Cherkassy to prevent them from locking up Kiev, but seeing the bombing in Irpin, those supposed troops may be focusing on defending the west of Kiev.
Perhaps right now they prefer to be entrenched and maintain organization and calm than to go out into the "open field". Using a football simile, like the team that plays with the lines close together without leaving gaps instead of venturing and leaving spaces :D

I don't know if the Crimea thing would be dangerous and perhaps it could be used by Putin to justify bombings as well as to sell the propaganda that the Russians are being massacred.
 
Russia see themselves as the grandaddy and protector of all Slavs and that extends all the way to Serbia, whom they seem to have a special affection for. Quite possibly due to historic rivalries between their imperial leaders way back in the day.
Russia might see themselves like that, but I doubt southern or western Slavs see them like that. After this, maybe just Serbians and possibly Bulgarians?
 
Even with state control of all TV, press and radio, you have wonder at how many ordinary Russians truly believe what they're being told when:

* Laws are being passed with severe penalties for criticising Russia's military "involvement" in Ukraine.
* Access to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and more has been blocked.

After all, wouldn't a lot of people figure that, if it's all going swimmingly well and they're being told the truth, why would such measures even be needed?

You can be sure this will be very effective when the prevailing idea prior to the start of this 'military exercise' was quite pro-Putin to start with. He had laid the propaganda groundwork much earlier -- It's a 'moral crusade' to rid the Ukrainians of the evil powers in Kyiv and to stop the genocide of their Russian brethren in the Eastern borders regions.

So it's easy to rationalise those laws: 'the Russian govt is just passing those laws to combat and protect against American efforts to spread fake news within the Russian society.'

Simple rule for dictators: If fails, always use a foreign entity and in this case their best enemy the US or the Brits (for colonial countries)

One (Putin) hand will claim to 'protect' the Russian people and the other hand to 'combat' against foreign aggression. He will look like a hero.
 
You'd have to imagine that many, if not a majority, know what is going on since they still have access to the outside world via social media, VPNs, messaging apps etc. Its almost impossible for the Government to block every form of communication.

How will Russians pay for VPNs next month with currency/payment restrictions?
 
It didn’t even really work in WW2. They were pulverised until the German’s became overstretched.

This might be what the Ukrainians have to do to buy time --- employ an insurgency tactic to over-stretch the Russian forces so thin that it becomes easier to pick them off bit by bit. Then it becomes a political issue for the Russians with increasing bodybags returning back to Moscow.
 
Don't worry my friend,I won´t correct you, your theories are perfectly valid. I am certainly not an expert and am basing myself on bits of information here and there.
A few days ago I also thought about some kind of counterattack (when the mega convoy was getting closer). Looking at the map, I assumed that they would try to put pressure on Vinnytsia, Kirovograd, Cherkassy to prevent them from locking up Kiev, but seeing the bombing in Irpin, those supposed troops may be focusing on defending the west of Kiev.
Perhaps right now they prefer to be entrenched and maintain organization and calm than to go out into the "open field". Using a football simile, like the team that plays with the lines close together without leaving gaps instead of venturing and leaving spaces :D

I don't know if the Crimea thing would be dangerous and perhaps it could be used by Putin to justify bombings as well as to sell the propaganda that the Russians are being massacred.

Crimea is tricky, but in best case scenario I see Russia falling apart much like Germany in WW1. I wouldn't be surprised (although it's a longshot) that at that point the things are so grim that Ukrainians would just have to drive in to places to conquer them. If Crimeans wouldn't mind it strongly (perhaps they'd rather be in Ukraine at that point). It's a really really longshot. But I can see the scenario.

As you've said, I do think that Ukranians are digging up and entrenching their position. Right now, Russia is still the favourite. So absorbing the initial pressure in the first 15 minutes and then looking to counter is a sensible strategy. We'll see as the days go by how it will go with sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv (and Kyev of course). I think that really is the key.
 
Going to dinner and some nutter on the metro is talking on loudspeaker about Europe lying a
Ukrainian armed forces drop the sickest beats of 2022 :lol:



When social media and war collide. :wenger:

This is really bizarre. Almost trivializing it.
Is it really all that surprising though? If my history doesn't fail me, one of the first instances where television/radio were used widely with the general public was for WWI propaganda.

Nowadays, we have social media and as much as people are saying this has been seen in other wars, the scale here is completely different. It's so public and visible.

It's peak irony that Russia has been employing disgusting social media propaganda (and still does) but is now getting schooled at their own game by their smaller neighbouring country. You'd have expected the US to take on and beat Russia at this but no, it's Ukraine.
 
They'll have Russia in the dictionary definition of cancel culture at this point. Boy, oh, boy.
 
Coca Cola refusing to join in with the rest of the world is sad. Hopefully they come to their senses if the backlash of that decision is huge. Another reason to get Cristiano to proclaim drink water instead.
 
They'll have Russia in the dictionary definition of cancel culture at this point. Boy, oh, boy.
Canceling an entire country. Scary to think about.

I do worry that this will only just make Russia that much more reliant on China.
 
Coca Cola refusing to join in with the rest of the world is sad. Hopefully they come to their senses if the backlash of that decision is huge. Another reason to get Cristiano to proclaim drink water instead.
Pepsi is a better company due to Mountain Dew alone.
 
Coca Cola refusing to join in with the rest of the world is sad. Hopefully they come to their senses if the backlash of that decision is huge. Another reason to get Cristiano to proclaim drink water instead.

I believe McDonalds haven't either (as of yesterday)
 


Given how badly the US coalition beat Wagners' forces in Syria, I can understand why Western volunteers would worry Russia.
 
Serbia is traditionally close to Russia. Both are slavic orthodox countries using cyrillic. I'd say Serbia sees Russia as their big brother who protects them. As far as I understand, Russia is right now the only major player supporting Serbia on Kosovo issue, which is of vital importance to them. Basically, Serbia can't afford to turn away from Russia because of national(istic) interests. Of course, EU and USA might not like it, so Serbia might suffer serious consequences. Their neighbors are always willing to pounce on stuff like that for political gain. So Serbia needs to tread carefully and play both sides. They've been trying to do it for some time, but not sure if it's possible after this war.
I have many many Serbian friends an ex colleagues. They want this to end ASAP. They don't want NATO or anyone to get involved, they have seen the backlash in their own country.
 


Given how badly the US coalition beat Wagners' forces in Syria, I can understand why Western volunteers would worry Russia.



Russians might also see breathing as stealing oxygen from their troops and therefore intervention. Who is really the paranoid side if you're constantly worrying about nuclear consequences, even when you're talking about doing things on your own soil? If everyone was thinking like that there wouldn't be any help for Ukraine at all.
 
Russians might also see breathing as stealing oxygen from their troops and therefore intervention. Who is really the paranoid side if you're constantly worrying about nuclear consequences, even when you're talking about doing things on your own soil? If everyone was thinking like that there wouldn't be any help for Ukraine at all.
You can only cry nuke so many times. At some point people would stop caring and gerrowithit.