Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I can only see two outcomes....Putin escalates a european or world war....or Russia fails and he gets murdered.
Not to provide an excuse for them but from what I've read the company that supplies Russia is only 23% owned by Coca-Cola. What I read being suggested is that Coca Cola can still stop the delivery of syrup which is the main ingredient.
It's absolutely frightening on so many fronts.
First, the fact the West has just pulled the proverbial plug on the Russian economy. Of course, it's their own fault they're so dependant on other countries for, well, anything beyond oil and other commodities.
Second, Russia can literally become North Korea's big brother and then you just never know. I hope the US has calculated the pressure exerted so far and planned does not lead to the opposite reaction. They are toeing a fine line and the fact they are avoiding the war crime accusation so far (and were quick to shut down the one from their Ukrainian embassy) appears to confirm that.
At some point, they will claim they are pulling out.... only when they cant get paid anymore.
The Russian oligarchs that had their properties seized by governments around Europe and at least a good portion of their stocks decimated can't happy with how this has turned out.
As inappropriate as Lindsey Graham's public comments were about assassinating Putin, I wouldn't be surprised if there are attempts at mutiny at some point.
Fixed that post for you. Garbage company that promotes bad habits
Well I don't know about any of you but I'd like to know if Hugo Boss have come out against this war? They have alot of making upto do still and cancel Russians looking dapper
Those are two pretty unlikely extremes in fairness.
Unless you're being sarcastic. I'm not even sure in this thread anymore.
Saw that a poll in Sweden showed 51% of the population supporting joining NATO now.
Wow, is that true?
All I've been seeing from officials today is basically condemning Russia for attacking a nuclear plant and then in the next sentence saying, oh, BTW please don't do it again, like it's a smack on the wrist.
It's crazy how scared everyone seems to be of Putin right now.
It's crazy how scared everyone seems to be of Putin right now.
This is no excuse, targeting of civilians is also a war crime. So to say "well we didn't know who they were so we just opened fire" is not an excuse, its a confession.
During the Second World War, the US established a trade embargo against Nazi Germany, making the export of Coca-Cola syrup difficult.[2] To circumvent this, Max Keith, the head of Coca-Cola Deutschland (Coca-Cola GmbH), decided to create a new product for the German market, using only ingredients available in Germany at the time
Putins masterplan could bankrupt his country, potentially lead to more civil unrest (and possibly removal of him… literally or figuratively, I’m easy) and see NATO get stronger.
Genius.
Add to the list.
Has Nestle said anything?
Guys, this might be our chance to cancel Nestle!
Guys, this might be our chance to cancel Nestle!
Quite.
I'm putting my optimists hat on. This is going terribly for Russia both in terms of in the theatre but also economically and politically. They may have poorly trained reserves in Russia they could try to deploy, but I'm not sure what the point would be, I doubt they could supply them or how effective they would be.
My wife said to me a few days ago "Russia are going to win aren't they?" and I said emphatically "No". The kind of force Russia has available is not enough to both conquer and occupy a country of 45 million people when those people are motivated, which they clearly are. I saw an estimate there are 8 million working aged men in Ukraine, if you can mobilize just 10% of those, that's 800k men who are fighting for their very existence. And let's be frank, when a country faces an existential thread, I think 10% is conservative and we're not even counting the very real impact that the older men and women could have.
I see this ending very badly for Russia and for Putin, I think he has miscalculated very badly here and its going to be the end of him.
#NoFlyZone trending on Twitter as both the BBC and CNN mindlessly and unsubtly push for it.
Fecking idiots.
Fecking idiots.
Assuming that Putin is not somehow removed from office by internal powers in Russia, and regardless of how the situation in Ukraine turns out (whether further partition, or ongoing insurgent resistance against a Russian "victory"), direct military conflict between NATO and Russia now looks inevitable in the medium term .
This is because Russia has set out red-lines that NATO and the EU simply can't live with ... red lines which say that Russia has the right to exercise a veto on whether additional sovereign nations can join NATO and/or the EU.
Sooner or later, and probably sooner, Finland or Sweden or some other European country is going apply to be accepted into NATO membership. Before the application is accepted, Putin will then be obliged to take action to avoid his threat being exposed as a bluff.
At this point, I believe NATO will respond by sending military units into the country concerned, regardless of whether the NATO membership application has still to be formally accepted.
Then things will become really dangerous in terms of a real WWIII potentially breaking out.
This is because Russia has set out red-lines that NATO and the EU simply can't live with ... red lines which say that Russia has the right to exercise a veto on whether additional sovereign nations can join NATO and/or the EU.
Sooner or later, and probably sooner, Finland or Sweden or some other European country is going apply to be accepted into NATO membership. Before the application is accepted, Putin will then be obliged to take action to avoid his threat being exposed as a bluff.
At this point, I believe NATO will respond by sending military units into the country concerned, regardless of whether the NATO membership application has still to be formally accepted.
Then things will become really dangerous in terms of a real WWIII potentially breaking out.
Trending where?
I view world wide trends and the war / Ukraine hardly gets mentioned in top trends aside from the first 2 days.
The short term (today to next 6 months) pressures like economic/financial pressures on Russia will be enormous. Then the bodybags will start to take its psychological toll after that.
So whats medium term in your scenario? Will Putin last till that 'medium term'?
They would deserve it, have you seen how small their Quality Street tins have become? Cancel immediately
I dunno, just logged in to Twitter and clicked on 'news' and this was the highest trending hashtag:
Medium term is maybe 6 months to 3 years from now. Unless he dies from natural causes, my guess is that Putin will still be in power during this period.
Based on the recent polling that has come out about 74% of Americans in favor of no-fly zone, I feel that Western leaders may be forced to reconsider if Russia uses biological/chemical/thermobaric weapons or level cities to the ground indiscriminately. I think Russia suspect this so that's why they haven't gone full Aleppo yet.
BBC explained earlier that the public don't understand what a NFZ is. Most think that it's a polite request and fail to realise that it means shooting down Russian planes.
As for thermobarics, doubt Russia using them will mean much since, despite being awful, they're not illegal and have been used in recent conflicts by both the US and Russia.
NATO are taking a reactive approach to all of this, hoping that supporting the Ukrainians with intel and weapons will stave off Russian advances long enough to where they run into logistics and morale issues, and at the same time, Russia implodes from within and in the process forces Putin into some sort of negotiation.
I do agree that the harder Putin goes after civilians, the harder it will be for NATO to not intervene in some way.
I don't know how he remains in power say 2 yrs from now with the economic pressures building up.
He is trying to make it like some North Korean propaganda hermit kingdom when the cat's already out of the bag and they have had all the exposure to western lifestyles.
The only option is slowly and begrudgingly, cap in hand and ask China for some major financial support. And that's a tough one since Russians see themselves as superior or at worst equal to the Chinese.
He has basically checkmated himself.
Funny but I was just looking at the (still up and not banned) Putin twitter account:
He is trying to show that he's busy and hard at work for the Russian people. ''Everything's normal'' basically.
Still referring to it as 'Special Military Operations'' *
* not sure why he would still use that term? Its not for domestic consumption since the Hermit KindomNorth Koreans Russians have no access to it now. And certainly, we aren't fooled by this ''training exercise''.
An interesting tweet from a yesterday:
Assuming the call to Salman was because he was looking for a new supplier for bone saws?
He is trying to show that he's busy and hard at work for the Russian people. ''Everything's normal'' basically.
Still referring to it as 'Special Military Operations'' *
* not sure why he would still use that term? Its not for domestic consumption since the Hermit Kindom
An interesting tweet from a yesterday:
Assuming the call to Salman was because he was looking for a new supplier for bone saws?
I hope you are right. But he has been in power for a long, long time now - long enough to ensure that he is totally surrounded by loyalists, with everyone else under his thumb. Moreover, his career background is KGB/FSB, so he knows all about security, threats to that security and how to nullify those threats, whether through assassination, blackmail or financial inducements.
Yes but 22yrs in power makes him 'fat' and out of touch. There must be some laws of diminishing returns for any dictator on how long they can stay in power before landing up dying painfully like a Gaddafi.
No Fly Zone?
You want WW3?
Nuclear armageddon.
About the same believe in angels so I'm not sure that it is a good metric.
no just sick of it
