Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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with no deal in place Iran are more likely to build nuclear capabilities I think is the logic.
My best guess is that if Russian nukes some NATO country, there is going to be a small retaliation, a bit of tit for tat. Likely not nuking Moscow, but nuking some random Russian base, and putting deterrent forces in the highest alert, using the backchannels to tell Russian generals in no uncertain terms that the next time is going to be a full retaliation.
And then either someone puts Putin down, or we have a nuclear Holocaust.
Not retaliating with nukes if you get nuked makes no sense.
Could be a Ukrainian tactic to seed doubts within the Russian security services. If it's real that elements within the FSB helped...then that's interesting to say the least.
To be honest Stoltenberg is saying things in public which he is supposed to say. However, the main question is to what extent NATO have helped the Ukraine with arms.
Then they would retaliate, whatever the outcome. No way Russia would be allowed to vaporize lets say Vilnius without a proportionate response.
I even think that Russian direct intervention on some non-Nato countries would provoke Nato to strike back. While Nato won't go to war for the Ukraine, I'm not so sure about EU members Finland and Sweden.
This is interesting - can @harms chime in here - is this about how it is?
Appreciate your clarification.
I was born in USSR, am native Russian speaker, but not Russian by nationality. Let me give you an example. US ambassador in my country gives a speech in local language when he congratulates citizens on some national hoilidays. The Russian ambassador gives a similar speech in Russian. An absolute majority of Russian people never learnt languages of the ex-USSR republics, despite having born and lived there for 2-3 generations.
China standing with Vlad…
I agree but the 'you' here would be say Latvia, not the US, UK etc. What you're saying is more probable btw but I do think there's a possibility of it going the other route and Putin may take the world up on that question if the cnut doesn't die soon.
Hope so because it's been pathetic to see what's happened at Ukraine. More importantly, I hope Putin believes this
Risk worth taking though. Otherwise, next time he sees a bad dream it is going to be London or Washington.
Pulling matches because there will be support for Ukraine on show
EPL clubs are going to show support over Ukraine, so China not televising those matches.
More like China killing off any modicum of protest based on anything before it gets to China.
This is why they're much, much more dangerous than Russia. More money, more people and actual competence in evil studies.
Two separate issues: the PL no longer wants to broadcast in Russia, and separately China won't broadcast the PL whilst there is a big focus on paying respect to Ukraine before matches.
What I got from it was him saying that it's not so stomach churning being used in the middle East..... Take from that what you will
So Nato saying going to discuss a no fly zone in Ukraine today, but we already know this can't happen unless Nato are prepared to kill Russian troops and destroy Russian planes etc
It's just crazy.
Do we really believe that even if attacked, Putin would seriously launch a Nuclear war?
He will just carrying on evading other nations just by waving his Nuke banner each time.
Nato are prepared to launch nuclear war if they attack a nato country but not if its Ukraine.
Doesn't sound realistic either.
It's just crazy.
Do we really believe that even if attacked, Putin would seriously launch a Nuclear war?
He will just carrying on evading other nations just by waving his Nuke banner each time.
Nato are prepared to launch nuclear war if they attack a nato country but not if its Ukraine.
Doesn't sound realistic either.
Concerning at the very least
We are still yeh to pull Anastasia off of Disney+
I'm not sure that would be wise. I could see a full scale air attack going for every known missile launching site in Russia. Probably the biggest air attack in history. If it required putting special forces in to disable facilities then so be it. The problem would be the Nuclear Subs.
I think the intention would be to try and limit the amount of sites they could launch more Nukes from. Rather than us simply trading one Nuke with another.
Why?
Just means the rest of the world gets to wake up and see how these countries act to murder.
As i say, people will read into it what they want, from my perspective it was suggesting that the bombs being used on civilians in a European capital is slightly different (and more relatable) then being used on caves in Afghanistan against potential terrorist threats, which really for a western reporter living/working in Europe it is!
Certainly doesn't make it racist, also doesn't mean that using bombs of such destruction is right in any situation, but there you go.
I'm speaking to my friend in Moscow and she says it's getting pretty bad there. The price of basic things like milk etc goes up everyday and they're shutting down all independent TV and radio.
She can't access her savings in Euros/dollars and can only use russian currency, which is getting worse and worse.
A lot of the population, especially older folk are completely brainwashed. Half her friends have already fled the country. Some others are trying to pretend like nothing is happening and others are still trying to protest but people are more and more afraid because of jail sentences. People on the streets generally look scared and afraid, avoiding eye contact etc.
Says her friend works high up in government and nobody expected this to happen, it was kept very secret. Apparently only 5 people have close access to Putin and they're all very much under his influence. All the elite are scared of him.
She can't access her savings in Euros/dollars and can only use russian currency, which is getting worse and worse.
A lot of the population, especially older folk are completely brainwashed. Half her friends have already fled the country. Some others are trying to pretend like nothing is happening and others are still trying to protest but people are more and more afraid because of jail sentences. People on the streets generally look scared and afraid, avoiding eye contact etc.
Says her friend works high up in government and nobody expected this to happen, it was kept very secret. Apparently only 5 people have close access to Putin and they're all very much under his influence. All the elite are scared of him.
Any sign of them backing Russia is a bit concerning to our civilisation.
Maybe there’s another angle?
Wasn't aware of that - thanks. Then no need for Harms to chime in
Harms is an absolutely terrific person, that much I am pretty sure of. It takes some courage to go out and protest like he did. Hats off to him.Wasn't aware of that - thanks. Then no need for Harms to chime in
As for China, given what they have done to the Uighurs, why would we expect anything less than their support for Russia?
What the west needs to be doing is investing in self sufficiency. Stop buying China tat, invest in renewables, in short do everything to minimise reliance on anything produced or extracted from either China or Russia. If that means selling fewer fecking phones, then so be it.
What the west needs to be doing is investing in self sufficiency. Stop buying China tat, invest in renewables, in short do everything to minimise reliance on anything produced or extracted from either China or Russia. If that means selling fewer fecking phones, then so be it.
I share your opinion based on his posts, absolutely. I was only asking that he verify what you said as a Russian (not knowing your background).
He might be of completely opposite opinion to that of mine though. We all hate Putin, we all want peace and prosperity in our countries.
They are correct, based on my experience. I am from Moldova and we have a big russian ethnic minority. It's quite widespread that Russian speaking people don't bother to learn Romanian, which is the official language.
An attack on nuclear forces is called a first-strike, and because the message is loud and clear ("I'm taking your nukes away"), it is to be prosecuted with nuclear weapons not conventional ones, to maximize the chances of destroying all of the launchers and bases.
That guarantees a full retaliation from Russia though. It takes longer to shoot Russian ICBMs (and we don't know where many of them are) deep in Russia, then for Russia to throw them. And as you said, there are the Russian subs, who then would retaliate.
So, if Russia nukes Ukraine, I think there are two options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does massive non-nuke air strikes in Russian troops in Ukraine.
If Russia nukes some NATO country, I guess we have 3 options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does tit for tat to de-escalate the situation; c) NATO fully retaliates which means Russia fully counter-retaliates.
If Russia nukes US, then I think we expect a full immediate retaliation, in fact before the ICBM/SLBM hits the US, the US has thrown hundreds of nukes towards Russia with thousands being prepared.
@harms How is everything with you my friend? And how is the situation in Russia right now?
A dictator lives and dies based on his (projected) strength. Brainwashing his own population is one thing, but if he were to leave Ukraine empty handed after more or less humiliating his military, losing thousands of soldiers and wrecking his own economy, then I assume the people around him would get their daggers out.
The same goes for his foreign policy: I assume Nato could relatively easily stop his forces in Ukraine, but it's this image of a strong and unscrupulous leader that makes them too afraid to get actively involved.
And even this idea that he has absolutely nothing to fear about on the domestic front might be a bit naive. It sure doesn't feel like it, but we're just a couple of days into the war and the sanctions, war enthusiasm and emotions are probably at their peak. But that doesn't mean it will always be like that, once the economy deteriorates further and the coffins come home, going on and on about Nato and Nazis in Ukraine might not be so effective anymore.
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