Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[dal]

That eventuality is unlikely not to trigger some response from NATO, so it would be unlikely to continue every successive day. It would simply escalate the conflict in terms of Western involvement.

The western Armies will not step one foot in Ukraine, ever. Russia can do whatever they want to Ukraine, a no fly zone will never be implemented by NATO.

Even if Russia use a nuclear weapon, NATO still doesn’t enter while Russia exists. Nukes will just go off and 99 percent of people on the world die.

I do however have a sneaking (1 percent) feeling that if Russia used a nuclear weapon would the west even retaliate,?? Would we retaliate, I mean really, would we, would we take the hit and just let Russia exist, is Putin even thinking this?

 

[RedorDead21]

I hear lots of people are booking in Ukraine AirBnBs just to give those in Ukraine money direct to help them get the essentials if they can. Good effort.

 

[Blodssvik]

I don't think he's being racist? He's suggesting that the idea of it being used in the continent where he lives is stomach churning, which it is.

Not sure I see the issue in this report to be honest. People can see what they want I guess

There have been many occasions in news reports over the last few days where europeans have casualy been portrayed as more civilised and less deserving of being hit by bombs.

 

[Water Melon]

Say, if Russia were to win this war very fast. Would sanctions remain in place for the next, say ,5 years?

 

[Champ]

There have been many occasions in news reports over the last few days where europeans have casualy been portrayed as more civilised and less deserving of being hit by bombs.

I don't doubt that,

But What have those reports got to do with the one I was quoting on?

 

[hellhunter]

Say, if Russia were to win this war very fast. Would sanctions remain in place for the next, say ,5 years?

If they stayed, I'm not sure there's much Russia left in five years time

 

[fergieisold]

@golden_blunder i thought I’d get a warning for abuse. But homophobia wtf.
It’s a reference to this image that is banned is Russia because Putin is homophobic

These guys got it

I do love that painting.

 

[Rajma]

Say, if Russia were to win this war very fast. Would sanctions remain in place for the next, say ,5 years?

I think sanctions are there to stay, otherwise we have learnt shit all.

 

[RedorDead21]

Say, if Russia were to win this war very fast. Would sanctions remain in place for the next, say ,5 years?

the Russian government yesterday were saying the west would get over this so I thinkthey should be coming together and saying if military action doesnt cease by x date we all sign something so sanctions will remain for 10 years, 20 years

 

[Sarni]

The western Armies will not step one foot in Ukraine, ever. Russia can do whatever they want to Ukraine, a no fly zone will never be implemented by NATO.

Even if Russia use a nuclear weapon, NATO still doesn’t enter while Russia exists. Nukes will just go off and 99 percent of people on the world die.

I do however have a sneaking (1 percent) feeling that if Russia used a nuclear weapon would the west even retaliate,?? Would we retaliate, I mean really, would we, would we take the hit and just let Russia exist, is Putin even thinking this?

100% they would, if nukes were used on a Western country. Nope if in Ukraine.

 

[sglowrider]

Its scary how common or pervasive this propaganda has affected so many people. My mate in Moscow said eveactly the same things.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

I hear lots of people are booking in Ukraine AirBnBs just to give those in Ukraine money direct to help them get the essentials if they can. Good effort.

Doesn't Airbnb get a cut? Seems pretty ineffective. There's so many better ways to help, no?

 

[Water Melon]

I think sanctions are there to stay, otherwise we have learnt shit all.

I bloody hope so.

the Russian government yesterday were saying the west would get over this so I thinkthey should be coming together and saying if military action doesnt cease by x date we all sign something so sanctions will remain for 10 years, 20 years

If sanctions are not lifted, Russian will turn into Iran and drop down even worse. Unfortunately, I am not sure if they are going to be enforced propely.

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

Surely the Russian people must know something is up when every foreign/neutral tv news channel is being shut down and only state tv is being broadcasted and any protesters are being rounded up and sent to jail? Or are they oblivious to it all?

 

[Bepi]

Russians brainwashed… after four years with Trump leading the US and a failed coup, after all the Brexit thing aimed at dividing Europe, after having had Russian funded leaders and parties in all the EU to shift its geoplitics… after all that we are now complaining about Russians apathetically accepting their country becoming North Korea 2.0? A bit precious, maybe. Fortunately for us in the West, Biden’s apparatus is keeping all proportionally in touch, for now. What comes tomorrow, we can’t know yet… No one is expecting Putin just to backdrop with a snarl, that’s where people really knowing and managing warfare sh*t will hopefully come apt.

 

[dal]

100% they would, if nukes were used on a Western country. Nope if in Ukraine.

Guess I’d agree, is USA the only country to have the missile defence system?

Regardless I’ve heard stories of friends who live in Slovakia, when the Chernobyl cloud appeared over the skyline, so many stories of strange radiation related deaths. It’s best to just hope nothing happens.

We are within an inch however of something nuclear occurring which is just unbelievable.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Surely the Russian people must know something is up when every foreign/neutral tv news channel is being shut down and only state tv is being broadcasted and any protesters are being rounded up and sent to jail? Or are they oblivious to it all?

I think it’s very clear most are aware of what’s happening (just look at the protests before the crackdown) but the majority don’t want to go to jail or worse. Russians haven’t been censored anywhere near the levels of the Chinese, although it’s getting more and more strict now.

 

[VorZakone]

Have we reached our limits when it comes to sanctions or can we afford even harsher ones? If the latter, then what's holding us back?

 

[Varun]

The western Armies will not step one foot in Ukraine, ever. Russia can do whatever they want to Ukraine, a no fly zone will never be implemented by NATO.

Even if Russia use a nuclear weapon, NATO still doesn’t enter while Russia exists. Nukes will just go off and 99 percent of people on the world die.

I do however have a sneaking (1 percent) feeling that if Russia used a nuclear weapon would the west even retaliate,?? Would we retaliate, I mean really, would we, would we take the hit and just let Russia exist, is Putin even thinking this?

Of course they'd retaliate. They're not going to let just Russia live so that the human race goes on.

The more interesting question is what happens if Putin actually goes for a small non nuclear NATO nation. I'd expect retaliation via troops, air etc but what if Putin sends a nuke or 2 to flatten it and threatens nukes for the entire world if they don't back down?

Will US, UK, France etc say, 'Well, country X isn't worth ending the world for even though they're NATO' and let it be? I'd be surprised if Putin hasn't thought of this and push comes to shove, there's a part of me that thinks he'd be right and the west would back down.

 

[MTF]

Is America the only country to have the missile defence system?

NATO has a project of one, with a few pieces implemented. These things are always a bit unclear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_missile_defence_system

 

[Varun]

Say, if Russia were to win this war very fast. Would sanctions remain in place for the next, say ,5 years?

I'd be surprised if the truly harsh ones remain in place even 5 months but I understand that's an unpopular opinion

 

[Water Melon]

Surely the Russian people must know something is up when every foreign/neutral tv news channel is being shut down and only state tv is being broadcasted and any protesters are being rounded up and sent to jail? Or are they oblivious to it all?

Unfortunately, because of Soviet era and Russian empire times, many Russian people that I know have that feeling of supremacy and arrogance with regards to other nations that were part of USSR. How many Russians bothered to learn Ukranian while having lived there decades? The words from USSR anthem: "союз нерушимый республик свободных сплотила навеки великая русь... (unbreakable union of free republics were united forever by great Russia...)"

 

[dal]

Of course they'd retaliate. They're not going to let just Russia live so that the human race goes on.

The more interesting question is what happens if Putin actually goes for a small non nuclear NATO nation. I'd expect retaliation via troops, air etc but what if Putin sends a nuke or 2 to flatten it and threatens nukes for the entire world if they don't back down?

Will US, UK, France etc say, 'Well, country X isn't worth ending the world for even though they're NATO' and let it be? I'd be surprised if Putin hasn't thought of this and push comes to shove, there's a part of me that thinks he'd be right and the west would back down.

This is exactly what I’m referring to. I assume though if Mexico was targeted, the USA would retaliate.

 

[Zehner]

Yup, that's why I said it's too late and risky now. Only way this ends is if there's a coup or if there's a settlement which he can 'sell' as a win.

The time to intervene and stop this was when he hadn't started and could have gone 'I already said it was just training'.

That's my take, too, but if you really think about it, does he really need such a settlement? If he's forced to retreat, he could just spin it like "see? We denazified Ukraine and took out their military. There's no threat to Russians anymore". It would probably weakens his political position against people who know what really happens. But if the sanctioned didn't lead to a coup, this wouldn't either I suppose. Russia has moved past facts, they'll just sell to their public whatever suits their narrative the most.

I think the real question is: How much is the population willing to accept? We see at North Korea that "modern" dictatorships can completely dominate the population but in contrast to North Korea, the Russians actually got a glimps what freedom and luxury (relatively speaking) tastes like.

 

[nimic]

100% they would, if nukes were used on a Western country. Nope if in Ukraine.

I don't think Nato would nuke Russia if the Russians set off a nuke in Ukraine, but I think you'd see Nato air raids and missiles on Russian targets in Ukraine immediately. Possibly land forces as well.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

I don't think Nato would nuke Russia if the Russians set off a nuke in Ukraine, but I think you'd see Nato air raids and missiles on Russian targets in Ukraine immediately. Possibly land forces as well.

I'd say so, too. But I wouldn't be surprised if we pressed our main button if Russia nukes Ukraine either.

 

[Ananke]

I'm still confused what Putin thinks will happen once he 'controls' Ukraine after battering it with artillery + missiles and forcing the entire population against him? Anyone?

The whole nation is going to be ravaged. It'll be a wasteland.

 

[Zehner]

Of course they'd retaliate. They're not going to let just Russia live so that the human race goes on.

The more interesting question is what happens if Putin actually goes for a small non nuclear NATO nation. I'd expect retaliation via troops, air etc but what if Putin sends a nuke or 2 to flatten it and threatens nukes for the entire world if they don't back down?

Will US, UK, France etc say, 'Well, country X isn't worth ending the world for even though they're NATO' and let it be? I'd be surprised if Putin hasn't thought of this and push comes to shove, there's a part of me that thinks he'd be right and the west would back down.

I don't think the way Russian conducted this operation fits to the idea that Putin is that indifferent to using nukes. He clearly fears the West and the NATO, that much is obvious. I believe it is much more likely that he just thinks of a new Soviet empire than about world domination. Nukes are just contrary to his goals as they are to ours.

 

[JJ12]

Is Crimea the only/main reason why Ukraine aren’t already part of NATO?

 

[Varun]

That's my take, too, but if you really think about it, does he really need such a settlement? If he's forced to retreat, he could just spin it like "see? We denazified Ukraine and took out their military. There's no threat to Russians anymore". It would probably weakens his political position against people who know what really happens. But if the sanctioned didn't lead to a coup, this wouldn't either I suppose. Russia has moved past facts, they'll just sell to their public whatever suits their narrative the most.

I think the real question is: How much is the population willing to accept? We see at North Korea that "modern" dictatorships can completely dominate the population but in contrast to North Korea, the Russians actually got a glimps what freedom and luxury (relatively speaking) tastes like.

Yeah, the settlement could be anything really. Maybe he even gets to keep some part of Ukraine while fighting insurgents for years.

 

[Rightnr]

Have we reached our limits when it comes to sanctions or can we afford even harsher ones? If the latter, then what's holding us back?

Unfortunately, democracy. And also Putin's effective campaign to compromise and/or idiotise Anglo-Saxon nations.

People are too short-sighted and politicians in the West know it. Huge inflation was already here and if you cut off the blood of the Putin regime, oil and gas, you'll see huge increases in prices on top of what's already here. Biden is already under pressure and things won't look rosier for leaders in Europe.

Now this is not coincidence, Putin knows all this. And unfortunately, this somewhat confirms his worldview that democracy breeds weak countries. Until last week, his whole strategy was working up until last week and the main reason is that he can afford not to care, Western leaders cannot because they are always being judged.

Europe may have decided to change course but it doesn't mean it'll happen quickly.

 

[Ayoba]

Sanctions seem to be hurting. We should increase them then.

Exactly what I was thinking. Looks like the sanctions are getting to him and the russian economy and for the first time, he's pleading !

 

[Fearless]

Have we reached our limits when it comes to sanctions or can we afford even harsher ones? If the latter, then what's holding us back?

As you read this, the US is importing 700,000 barrels of Russian oil per day.
Next week, the Biden admin sits down with Russian counterparts to remove sanctions form Iran and give them an absurd Nuke deal.

Let that sink in.

 

[RedorDead21]

Doesn't Airbnb get a cut? Seems pretty ineffective. There's so many better ways to help, no?

how? Through a charity where fortunes are spent on admin and staffing and then there was oxfam and what their staff were up to abroad. How much of your donations gets to make any real difference is hard to tell. No apparently they are not taking any cut.

 

[harms]

I was saying from day one, Russian citizens are responsible for what is happening, I read somewhere that Putin’s popularity increased by 11% based on this war against Ukraine. It should tell you everything you need to know. Sure there are plenty of decent Russians that have gone to protests etc., but majority has been brainwashed or have complete apathy towards what’s happening, unfortunately.

Let me guess, you’ve read a study that was done by Putin’s sociological institution. That really tells you everything you need to know.

 

[Varun]

I don't think the way Russian conducted this operation fits to the idea that Putin is that indifferent to using nukes. He clearly fears the West and the NATO, that much is obvious. I believe it is much more likely that he just thinks of a new Soviet empire than about world domination. Nukes are just contrary to his goals as they are to ours.

Sure he wants to avoid nukes because he wants. To live as much as anyone else but just like Ukraine, does he believe the world is ready to end itself over a different non nuclear nation even iff they're NATO? If not, there's little stopping him from doing to them what he's doing to Ukraine and cry 'nukes' if there's retaliation or worse still, actually use a small one to show he means business. My point is, NATO or not, is Latvia really worth ending the world for to the US just because they're NATO?

 

[CraftySoAndSo]

Can't see that you got an answer so from what i've seen of the day:

Kharkiv situation not changed. Kyiv convey barely moved and looking less of a threat, but that could change in an instant. The town to NE of Kyiv, Chernihiv, now being focussed by Russian forces (amazing Ukraine still holds it tbf).

Mariupol surrounded and receiving heavy bombardment for going on 2 days uninterrupted. Russian fleet gearing up to assault Odessa.

Ukraine still seeing success hitting supply convorys with air force/TB2/Special Forces. A few more instances of Russian desertion/surrender.

Cheers, i hadn't seen any major updates on the news but this thread is very good at breaking any news quicker than a lot of places so wondered if i'd missed anything.

 

[groovyalbert]

I'm still confused what Putin thinks will happen once he 'controls' Ukraine after battering it with artillery + missiles and forcing the entire population against him? Anyone?

The whole nation is going to be ravaged. It'll be a wasteland.

I guess look at how civilian rights and free-speech is being cut in Russia right now as a bit of a guide.

Take control, instate a puppet government, oppress the public into submission, instil utter fear in the government, and rig elections. It's basically the dictator's handbook to running a country.

 

[TMDaines]

 

[do.ob]

I was saying from day one, Russian citizens are responsible for what is happening, I read somewhere that Putin’s popularity increased by 11% based on this war against Ukraine. It should tell you everything you need to know. Sure there are plenty of decent Russians that have gone to protests etc., but majority has been brainwashed or have complete apathy towards what’s happening, unfortunately.

And what is that? Propaganda works! Everywhere. Just look at how far US Republicans have come during just one term for Trump. In Europe you can see his influence as well, most notably in Brexit. And those are free democracies, where he started out with the mainstream against him and without the tools of a dictatorship available to him.
Now imagine what it must be like in Russia, where he has had a relatively free hand for decades.