Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Not something I am an expert in. But the only way I see this working is if you had a number of subs scattered across the north coast of Russia that simultaneously launched from right off the coast, they might just be able to hit the launch sites before the info could work its way through the chain of command to authorise, back to the launchers and for them to get the weapons away.

It doesn't solve the sub problem though, and it doesn't solve the mobile launchers.
In theory their own SSBNs you target with attack subs and other anti-sub capabilities, which at all times are looking for Russian subs and trailing them when found. The mobile launchers you target with stealth bombers if those are able to survive over Russian airspace and look for targets as they're identified by any means. Again, entirely theoretical and obviously best case.
 
Could be a Ukrainian tactic to seed doubts within the Russian security services. If it's real that elements within the FSB helped...then that's interesting to say the least.


"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022 :lol::lol::lol:



It was a pretty good speech. Although not entire unexpected that internet trolls will focus on the verbal gaff.
 
There needs to be a new law in place 69 is the oldest age at which you can still become president, I mean if you get two terms you will still be an old fart at the end with 77 but the candidate's age in the last election was abysmal 74, 77 and 78? For the love of god, just retire.
It's stuff like this that helps the Republican crazies because there definitely is a grain of truth in the fact the Democrats are planning for Harris to succeed him.

That by no means it's a bad thing but the lack of transparency is what further fuels conspiracy theorists and lends credibility to their ideas.
 
I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.

That's exactly what the guy I was driving to the border yesterday said. You have to approach it as if you were approaching a 13-year old bully, at the same time knowing that he is sick enough to stab you.
 
Russia has a massive army and, unless they are faced with a larger NATO led army, they will eventually take major cities in Ukraine. But it certainly may be true that it hasn't been as easy as they anticipated at the start (or as easy as the west thought).

That being said, this will go the way of the Soviets and US in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq. They might take over but they'll have hell to pay, the locals will hate them and eventually they will want to leave because it will be too much of a nuisance to retain.

Bang on. And especially as it becomes progressively more difficult to defend and Putin is no longer in power.
 
Russia has a massive army and, unless they are faced with a larger NATO led army, they will eventually take major cities in Ukraine. But it certainly may be true that it hasn't been as easy as they anticipated at the start (or as easy as the west thought).

That being said, this will go the way of the Soviets and US in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq. They might take over but they'll have hell to pay, the locals will hate them and eventually they will want to leave because it will be too much of a nuisance to retain.

The US still has thousands of troops in Iraq in the present, at the invitation of the democratically elected Iraqi government. But that's probably a better topic for the thread next door.
 
I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.
They are very careful about the messages they are sending - intentionally or not - about escalation. The message all along is NATO is not going to escalate this situation. It's why Biden wisely cancelled the ballistic missile test. I believe US forces are currently at Defcon 4, while Defcon 3 means the US Airforce is ready to mobilise in 15 mins. That would be quite an escalation for a jittery paranoid Russian president.

(Thank God Trump is not President).
 
They are very careful about the messages they are sending - intentionally or not - about escalation. The message all along is NATO is not going to escalate this situation. It's why Biden wisely cancelled the ballistic missile test. I believe US forces are currently at Defcon 4, while Defcon 3 means the US Airforce is ready to mobilise in 15 mins. That would be quite an escalation.

Aha, I always forget that it's at 4 and for some reason always assume it is at 5! That makes a bit more sense.
 
Tbf he mumbled thru the Uk..rain....part of the word. Sounded like Iranian instead.
His dentures probably got in the way.

Yeah I initially thought he said Iranian but then assumed he had tried to pronounce it more correctly with a long U at the beginning.
 
They are very careful about the messages they are sending - intentionally or not - about escalation. The message all along is NATO is not going to escalate this situation. It's why Biden wisely cancelled the ballistic missile test. I believe US forces are currently at Defcon 4, while Defcon 3 means the US Airforce is ready to mobilise in 15 mins. That would be quite an escalation for a jittery paranoid Russian president.

(Thank God Trump is not President).
This give the DEFCON level worldwide.
US is at 4
Europe is 2 !!

https://www.defconlevel.com/
 
There should not be such a law. Plenty of incredibly smart people who are much older (the likes of Warren Buffet or Leonard Susskind for example).
Buffet works for himself though, and the worst thing Susskind can do is misplace a mathematical symbol in a physics paper. I have come around to the view that our elected representatives should be far better trained and prepared for public administration, and part of that should include a mandatory retirement age. Bit like term limits in some countries.

Too many of them, at least here in the UK, seem to know far too little about all kinds of crucial stuff. Boris Johnson, for example, with his classics degree and no management experience of anything, is just badly out of his depth (and he's relatively young). Can't be a coincidence that Merkel was so good when you consider her very impressive academic background.
 
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It really is horrifying to be seeing this in the 21st century in the center of European continent.
its horrific anywhere but against ISIS there is at least some semblance of a reason albeit not explicit.

In a peaceful country its so desperately sad and scary
 
I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.
The probably did, just that there is no reason to do it in public.

The US also has much higher defcon forces to start with. They have at least 4 subs always in water, but probably many more. And B2s can fly over Moscow without Russians knowing it.
 
Personally, i think they have been trying to bait NATO in to fight, and not just for this reason. There have been numerous examples

Why do you think so? In my impression they clearly avoid a direct confrontation with NATO. Think there's very little speaking for that.

Sure he wants to avoid nukes because he wants. To live as much as anyone else but just like Ukraine, does he believe the world is ready to end itself over a different non nuclear nation even iff they're NATO? If not, there's little stopping him from doing to them what he's doing to Ukraine and cry 'nukes' if there's retaliation or worse still, actually use a small one to show he means business. My point is, NATO or not, is Latvia really worth ending the world for to the US just because they're NATO?

I think the key thing right here is preparation. Putin clearly exploited Europe's military weakness and seized the moment for his attack. If we just continue like that, it's very dangerous and I wouldn't put it past him to do the same to Latvia, e. g. But if the West is prepared to defend Latvia, it's an entirely different matter. It's essentially a Mexican standoff. You can't allow him to take one out without catching a bullet himself. @Raoul said something similar by arguing it would be best if MAD would be automated. Putin is playing the opponent so it is important that it is clear which actions lead to which reactions. Make it so that pressing the red button means he's firing one on himself. Make it calculatable and don't give him room to maneuver in.

That being said, the whole situation is (logically) very hysterical right now. For Putin, Kyev is just another Aleppo or Grozny. He launched his attack talking about "unseen consequences" for anybody who would intervene and we did intervene not only by the most severe sanctions a major country has seen in modern days but also by directly and openly supplying weaponry and intelligence to Ukraine, contributing majorly to the death of thousands of Russian soldiers and probably billions of military equipment - something which in combination at least seems possible to end Putin's reign. And Russia accepted it teeth grindingly, only signaling us to not go too far. I think it's a very long stretch from going from there to "you know what, let's invade Latvia and see what the NATO does".

Think the most important part is that nowt hat NATO has finally woken up to the threat, we won't allow ourselves to be lulled in again and remain vigilant while Putin's autocracy implodes gradually. Our strength is that we are econimically far ahead of him. And if we drag this out and continue to translate this economic advantage into a technological/military one (e. g. by developing fully reliable missile defense systems and deploying them) we might even be able to eliminate the risk of Russia's nuclear threat altogether.


A dictator lives and dies based on his (projected) strength. Brainwashing his own population is one thing, but if he were to leave Ukraine empty handed after more or less humiliating his military, losing thousands of soldiers and wrecking his own economy, then I assume the people around him would get their daggers out.
The same goes for his foreign policy: I assume Nato could relatively easily stop his forces in Ukraine, but it's this image of a strong and unscrupulous leader that makes them too afraid to get actively involved.
And even this idea that he has absolutely nothing to fear about on the domestic front might be a bit naive. It sure doesn't feel like it, but we're just a couple of days into the war and the sanctions, war enthusiasm and emotions are probably at their peak. But that doesn't mean it will always be like that, once the economy deteriorates further and the coffins come home, going on and on about Nato and Nazis in Ukraine might not be so effective anymore.

I want to believe that as well but fear I'm not as convinced as you are. I don't know if Putin's grip on his inner circle is so firm that they won't stage a coup regardless of what happens, or if that is even possible to begin with (I hope not, obviously). But I have the fear that dictactors with modern technology can build such a brainwashing, surveillance and suppression machinery that it immediately suffocates even the earliest signs of revolution. And my thinking was that if the sanctions won't do the job, I have my doubts if a retreat which can be sold to the public as a finished mission and kept promise ("see, we never were that bad and just did what we proclaimed, NATO lied to you") will tips it over.
 
Could be a Ukrainian tactic to seed doubts within the Russian security services. If it's real that elements within the FSB helped...then that's interesting to say the least.



Find it hard to believe that Russian neo-Nazis are talking to that paper...
 


"I told her there were casualties among civilians. 'But that's what we had too when Ukraine attacked Donbas!', she said, laughing. For a moment I couldn't breathe. Hearing my mum say this with such cruelty just broke my heart."


Propaganda is truly scary.. Imagine your own mother starting to laugh when you tell her that your city is being bombed and civilians are dying all around you.
 


Built one year after Chernobyl.

Luckily a totally different type of reactor. The WWER concept is much closer to western designs and optimized for civilian usage, just producing a lot of energy safely. Chernobyl's RBMK on the other hand was optimized for creating plutonium for the military and therefore inherently unsafe.
 
I'd probably expect Zelensky to be well outside of Kyiv already.
Right wing Twitter is claiming he tucked tail & fled the country. Obviously this claim is being made with no factual basis or credible linking.
 
The probably did, just that there is no reason to do it in public.

The US also has much higher defcon forces to start with. They have at least 4 subs always in water, but probably many more. And B2s can fly over Moscow without Russians knowing it.

Not quite. They will know there is something up there, they just won't know exactly what/where. It can't be hidden totally.
 
Luckily a totally different type of reactor. The WWER concept is much closer to western designs and optimized for civilian usage, just producing a lot of energy safely. Chernobyl's RBMK on the other hand was optimized for creating plutonium for the military and therefore inherently unsafe.

Thanks.
 
Not quite. They will know there is something up there, they just won't know exactly what/where. It can't be hidden totally.
I know. It doesn't matter though, they won't even need to be in Russia to nuke Moscow.
 
Buffet works for himself though, and the worst thing Susskind can do is misplace a mathematical symbol in a physics paper. I have come around to the view that our elected representatives should be far better trained and prepared for public administration, and part of that should include a mandatory retirement age. Bit like term limits in some countries.

Too many of them, at least here in the UK, seem to know far too little about all kinds of crucial stuff. Boris Johnson, for example, with his classics degree and no management experience of anything, is just badly out of his depth (and he's relatively young). Can't be a coincidence that Merkel was so good when you consider her very impressive academic background.

I know she was well liked but was she that good? Germany has sleep walked into this situation totally reliant on Russian energy and with a depleted military that couldn't defend it's own borders.
 
I know she was well liked but was she that good? Germany has sleep walked into this situation totally reliant on Russian energy and with a depleted military that couldn't defend it's own borders.
This is correct but she more reflects the wider Western penchant for delaying the solution, as opposed to addressing problems head-on.
 
This is interesting - can @harms chime in here - is this about how it is?
I was born in USSR, am native Russian speaker, but not Russian by nationality. Let me give you an example. US ambassador in my country gives a speech in local language when he congratulates citizens on some national hoilidays. The Russian ambassador gives a similar speech in Russian. An absolute majority of Russian people never learnt languages of the ex-USSR republics, despite having born and lived there for 2-3 generations.
Yeah, it’s certainly the case. To be fair, the Rus’ from the anthem is Kievskaya Rus’ (Kyiv’s Rus’), but not many Russians remember that.
 
@harms How is everything with you my friend? And how is the situation in Russia right now?
It’s hard to complain when Ukraine is literally getting bombed as we speak, but pretty shit. Putin decided to get a world record on a turning into North Korea speed run.
 
I'd wager none of the people going on about this have ever done live TV.
I, during a talk about museums I did whilst working at a museum, while standing right in the centre of the museum said the word 'musician' instead of the word 'museum'. It's not a sign of advanced old age, it's just a slip of the tongue.