Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

NATO aren’t going to militarily get involved, the window of opportunity for that has passed. They could roll in and wipe out this much publicised military column heading for Kyiv if they really wanted to, but imagine what the ramifications of that would be. If anything, they’re banking on and enabling the inevitable insurgency to eventually push Russia out.

Agree with that.
 
Russia is already now starting to call-up reservists. If a general call-up follows, as rumoured, I wonder how Putin's propaganda will square all this with his pretence to the Russian public of a limited military engagement - and definitely not an "invasion"?

They won't have to. They will be giving up to15 years for anyone who spreads "fake information" about the army. There are also rumors about them imposing martial law.
 
Indeed but that's just signalling. I was more thinking whether it makes sense beyond scare tactics.

Apparently Russia have a strategy called 'escalate to deescalate' which essentially means using a tactical nuke to show their enemy that they're ready to push a conflict further than their enemy is willing to. The idea that their enemy will then come to the table to negotiate rather than risk escalating into a full nuclear war.

Personally I tend to agree that the west that we wouldn't escalate in such a case. The ultimate question becomes are we going to end our own civilisation (I'm talking about the actual nuclear armed states here) for another country. I'm even sceptical that the like of the US, France and UK would escalate for most non-nuclear NATO states.
 
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Schools and ambulances are the most dangerous places

They are the first targets by the russians

 
Report in German news suggesting that Zelenski has survived another assasination attempt thanks to someone in the russian secret service who is against the war.

Could be propaganda, would be nice if it was true though.

Makes hope.


There is no benefit unless you apply modern psychology regarding the thought processes of psychopathic narcissists like Putin.

Essentially it goes like this:. Putin sees himself as Russia. Russia is him and everyone belongs to him in it including the Ukraine. This is part of the "allure" of narcissistics - if you're empathic you get swept up in the feeling of being part of his success and his world.

If Russia loses, Putin suffers. If Putin suffers then why does he care if Russia suffers - Russia is him. So if he's suffering, and Russia is suffering, why not make the world suffer in response, and inflict MAXIMUM suffering on everyone else. So thermonuclear war and the end of everything is an option for him to that end. To punish everyone for his suffering. And thus the end of everything because of one pathetic man and his fragile ego.

Which is why we should consider always leaving him something to lose, shouldn't we? At least unless we're very, very sure we can finish him before he can press the kamikaze button
 
“Tactical” nukes are still 5x larger than Hiroshima (like 100kt - Little Boy and Fat Man were 21kt).

There’s nothing small about tactical, it’s just that they’re usually aimed at “tactical” targets rather than strategic nuclear bombs that target cities.

They are smaller than strategic, which are significantly more powerful than the WW2 bombs.

Putin drops any nuke, it’ll be met with a proportionate response regardless if it’s in NATO or not.

Not that I think he will use nuclear weapons of any sort.
But just to point out that the bombs used on Japan were Atomic Bombs.
Whereas modern nuclear weapons, including tactical ones are Thermonuclear or Hydrogen Bombs. Because they are smaller and significantly more powerful than an Atomic Bomb.
 
The is very little benefit in NATO getting involved at this point. The invasion is going terribly, the economy is being crippled, the whole world is turning against them, and all this against a third tier army. Let him die on his own sword. All NATO getting involved gives him is an excuse.

Sad but true I am afraid.
I just hate seeing innocent people being murdered and a democratic nation being bombed and starved into submission, for no good reason at all.
 
People seem very assured that Putin won't use a nuke, presumably those with such a belief think none of the western states would ever use a nuke if losing a war against Russia?
 
I can’t figure out what the motive is in shelling the nuclear plant.

Are they trying to bait NATO to join the fight, and what would they gain from that? Or are they simply just that stupid?

Seems completely irrational, which is scary.
Personally, i think they have been trying to bait NATO in to fight, and not just for this reason. There have been numerous examples
 
People seem very assured that Putin won't use a nuke, presumably those with such a belief think none of the western states would ever use a nuke if losing a war against Russia?

Russia isn't losing a war against us. Nobody has invaded them. There is no threat to the country.

If somebody actually invaded Russia they would be well within their rights to use nuclear weapons to defend themselves.

Personally, i think they have been trying to bait NATO in to fight, and not just for this reason. There have been numerous examples

I said upthread Nato joining gives Putin an excuse. At the moment they're being embarrassed on the global stage by a third tier military. Nato countries are providing quite a lot of important assistance in terms of modern weaponry and intelligence but it's on the quiet, if Nato get openly involved he can shift blame for the Russian military's failures to them and stoke up nationalism domestically.
 
Apparently Russia have a strategy called 'escalate to deescalate' which essentially means using a tactical nuke to show their enemy that they're ready to push a conflict further than their enemy is willing to. The idea that their enemy will then come to the table to negotiate rather than risk escalating into a full nuclear war.

Personally I tend to agree that the west that we wouldn't escalate in such a case. The ultimate question becomes are we going to end our own civilisation (I'm talking about the actual nuclear armed states here) for another country. I'm even sceptical that the like of the US, France and UK would escalate for most non-nuclear NATO states.
Correct. Apparently developed by Putin, after the Kosovo war where the US air-force was able to easily neutralize important parts of Yugoslavian defense/forces, that before was thought to be possible by using only nukes.

Putin realized that they cannot win a war with NATO and that the balance of power now is completely in favor of US/NATO, so if Russia is put into a corner (be it invasion, or something extremely strategic for them like Ukraine), the idea is to escalate (e.g., use a tactical nuke) to bring NATO to the negotiation table to end the conflict (de-escalate).
 
Not that I think he will use nuclear weapons of any sort.
But just to point out that the bombs used on Japan were Atomic Bombs.
Whereas modern nuclear weapons, including tactical ones are Thermonuclear or Hydrogen Bombs. Because they are smaller and significantly more powerful than an Atomic Bomb.
Both fission (Hiroshima/Nagasaki) and fusion (thermonuclear) are called atomic bombs. I think that nowadays most countries use fusion ones cause they are significantly more powerful.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?
 
This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?
Russia is doing quite well in the south. But they are literally stuck in the mud in the north.

And in general they are advancing, they are just performing worse than expected while the Ukrainians are doing much better than expected.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?
I don't think I've seen anything that suggests they're losing the war, more so that they are meeting much fiercer resistance than they anticipated and it's not going at all to plan. Obviously they will overcome Ukrainian forces eventually but it has clearly been a much more difficult and costly fight than they'd hoped it would be, and they've been punished by the west far more than they probably would have expected, too.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?
Sorry - who from the west has said Russia aren’t going to take the major cities in Ukraine? It’s inevitable they’ll take Kyiv. That doesn’t mean they’re going to “win” the war in the long term.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?

We are not at war with Russia. They're invading Ukraine which is being backed in a limited sense by the west. I'm not sure anyone sensible thought that any Russian invasion would fail. Most sensible people thought that it would've been easier for Russia than it has been. Most people hope that Ukraine can prevail against the odds.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?
Russia is suffering much heavier casualties than anyone thought they would, they're also being held back by heavy resistance that is doing a much better job than anyone thought. Just because he captured a power plant, doesn't mean he's beaten the West, because if it came down to it, the West would win the war before Putin could even take a piss.
 
The economic sanctions are beginning to take effect. Russian debt is crashing and they have started missing interest payments. Doesn't count as a default yet but it's not good and they will be paying for it in the form of higher interest rates for years.

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The economic sanctions are beginning to take effect. Russian debt is crashing and they have started missing interest payments. Doesn't count as a default yet but it's not good and they will be paying for it in the form of higher interest rates for years.

1646210228788
Wonder if Jacob Rees Mogg has been advising the Oligarchs on disaster capitalism.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?
Why doesn’t it make sense?

Narrative has been the same since about day 2. Russia will eventually take over all the Eastern big cities and likely Kyiv but have underestimated resistance levels and suffered a lot of casualties (how many we don’t know but Russia said 500 and currently Ukraine says 6000+). Anything near a hostile border will be taken by Putin. We don’t know if they’ll stop at Kyiv and then push onto Lviv but it would arguably be amongst the biggest military feck ups ever by Russia if Ukraine could actually ‘win’ on its own given the military difference in every single department that Russia has.
 
Citizens from the west: Putin knows he ain't winning a war against us

Putin: Captures biggest nuclear facility in Europe.



This shit isn't making sense. Been told everyday that Russia is losing this war by the worst figures ever, and now this?

Make no mistake, being able to just bombard the hell out of cities and destroy them isn't 'winning the war'.

I think it more or less looks like this, based on what I've read and discussed with people who know way more than me:

  • Russia tried to take the country quickly and install their own government, it turned out resistance was much harder than they expected and they were not as welcome there as they thought
  • Russia have now entered a strategy of just hammering cities, to which Ukraine can put no resistance
  • There is no realistic chance of Russia holding all of Ukraine over the long term, so most likely they will sit on the Eastern Ukraine where the resources are, and may give less attention to Western Ukraine
  • Ukraine are keeping a lot of their resources on the West of the country too, in order to ensure that supplies keep coming
  • NATO and US have done their work in terms of equipment and sanctions but will not make any further steps in order to not escalate this into WW3. They are most likely hoping that over the long term sanctions are going to impact Russia and cause change in order. Chances of global military conflict are miniscule.
  • It was a grossly miscalculated invasion which has gone much worse than Russia had planned for
  • In the meantime thousands if not millions of civilians are going to die just because Putin does not like how hard it is to invade a sovereign country and make it yours.