Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Sky News tonight saying Putin has shut down all non state media and freedom of speech is now banned.

Russians trying to leave the country if possible
 
A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.

I think the "he fecked up" theory is a lot more likely than the "he's an evil genius who planned everything just the way it's happening" theory.
 
A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.
Isn’t the Soviet Union a better analogy than North Korea?
 
A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.

Interesting. I heard a similar analysis recently. But I can't remember where or who.
 
A lot of words to try and argue that the nuclear threat has no meaningful line to draw on either side. But of course it has. Pure sophistry.

To try and argue that Putin would ignore the threat of NATO if they don't intervene in Ukraine is just naive. As is imagining that Putin would ignore NATO overtly joining the war in Ukraine. Yet Kasparov openly steps into both obvious blunders.

And no, while war is terrible this is not (yet) genocide. I guess Kasparov can't really sense proportions very well.

I think the book he's flogging at the top of his twitter probably might have a lot to do with the extent of some of his statements. Just a guess.
 
I think the "he fecked up" theory is a lot more likely than the "he's an evil genius who planned everything just the way it's happening" theory.
The constant effort to paint every failure as a calculated NP-Chess move is getting tiresome and is reminiscent of a similar effort by a group named after a letter of the alphabet.
 
It's for an other thread but isn't he against Israel as a state and not against jewish people themselves? Anti-zionist and not antisemite?
Does he know Zelensky is Jewish? World is a weird place these days.


I don't think he ever cared about that. The regime in Iran has been in a cold war with Israel for 40 years, he was just a more virulent president than the other ones. His tenure didn't change things for Iranian jews. There are still circa 10 thousands Jews living in Iran what is some sort of a normal life...

His antisemitic remarks about the holocaust were often just his version of "All lives matter", before BLM and ALM became a thing.
 
A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.

It was already nationalistic. He didn’t need to destroy the economy to bolster that sentiment. The most logical explanation is that he thought he could waltz in like Czechoslovakia in 1968, replace the leader and then present the world with a fait accompli.
 
The whole thing summarizes my feelings exactly. The longer we wait to take action, the higher the price will be.
I'm not sure I agree. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets strategically and the more vulnerable Putin becomes to body bags, a collapsing economy, an army running out of spares and willing fighters. At the moment the pressure is all on Ukraine but in the next 2-3 weeks, Putin is going to come under very substantial pressure indeed. Even if Ukraine capitulates formally, there's no way they are going to be able to hold such a large country against an insurgency armed with the very best weapons the US/EU can afford. I hope Ukraine can hold on though, it could get very very bad.
 
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I think the book he's flogging at the top of his twitter probably might have a lot to do with the extent of some of his statements. Just a guess.

How so? He released it 7 years ago.
He was quite active politically against Putin after retiring from chess and he's been wording strong warnings about where things are heading if the West don't stop him for a long while.
 
The one thing I don’t get - why didn’t he invade 18 months ago when his mate was in the White House? If the US was on the sidelines, I doubt Europe would have felt emboldened to take such decisive action.
He did. That's when the convoy started moving from east Russia.
 
Not sure how long it takes to build these things but surely they can just up the production in their factories?
Surely they can, but they will never be able to produce modern precision weapons as fast as they are using them, especially not if they have trouble getting electronics etc imported.
 
It was already nationalistic. He didn’t need to destroy the economy to bolster that sentiment. The most logical explanation is that he thought he could waltz in like Czechoslovakia in 1968, replace the leader and then present the world with a fait accompli.
Exactly. Ukraine was a very divided country, he thought the East and some in Kyiv would welcome him.

That being said, he certainly would have expected a certain level of sanctions after what happened in 2014. And he's been preparing the cash for that. The main question is whether he will have access to that cash. Now he will also use these sanctions and whatever is said about Russia in the western media to bolster the nationalistic sentiment. The propaganda called "Russia-wide online lesson" this morning was a good example of that.
 


Even if they succeed in installing a puppet government, the reality is that occupying Russian forces will be subjected to endless hit-and-run attacks, guerilla warfare, IED bombings, assassinations, kidnappings etc ... all fuelled by an endless supply of weapons smuggled in from NATO countries. This will continue without end until they leave.

It's one thing to round up and arrest a small minority of protestors in Moscow or St. Petersburg. It's entirely something else to try and do that when surrounded by a hostile population numbering in the tens of millions.
 
I think the "he fecked up" theory is a lot more likely than the "he's an evil genius who planned everything just the way it's happening" theory.

I did not say he was a genius, you said so in your reply. I referred to a russian citizen that talks to her people back home, and referred some of the things she said. You have a tendency to deliberately misunderstand things Nimic.
 
The constant effort to paint every failure as a calculated NP-Chess move is getting tiresome and is reminiscent of a similar effort by a group named after a letter of the alphabet.


You guys need to learn to read and stop twisting narratives to suit your needs ! THAT is getting really tiresome. What a cnut!

Edit:

For you to read, here is what the woman wrote in the local newspaper:

...

My grandfather is still alive. He still lives in Moscow, while I have moved to a much safer country. On February 24, we both understood that we would never meet again.

I well remember the impression it made on me as a six-year-old little girl, when my grandfather took me outside the Kremlin for the first time, to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. I remember the seriousness of his face, the strong steady hand in mine when he told me about World War II and everyone who had lost their lives in the years 1939-1944.

Grandfather was ten years old when the war broke out. I remember he told me that he was not allowed to go to school during the years of the war. The feeling is still in me from when my grandfather told me - I who was just about to start school.

He lost several of his loved ones in the war. Grandpa's face was heavy and sad when he told about the war. Now Europe is at war again. My grandfather is still alive. He still lives in Moscow, while I have moved to a much safer country.

On February 24, we both understood that we would never meet again.

It is written that Russia has invaded Ukraine. The words are like splinters into the heart. Does the West really not understand that the Russians knew as little about Putin's vicious plans as they did? I called my relatives the day after the war broke out. The panic on the other hand was suffocating.

I asked if they knew anything before it slammed. They shouted from the other side that of course we knew nothing . Nobody knew anything until Putin invaded. Later, there has also been information that even the soldiers did not know where or who to take. I can understand that as a Western, it's almost hard to believe, but I do not just think, I know, how the regime there works. Cruelty, brutality and fear.

There are daily reports of deaths. The number of dead Ukrainians is reported, before mentioning how many Russian soldiers have been killed. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, more than 5,300 Russian soldiers have been killed in Putin's invasion so far. This makes me think back to my grandfather's hand in front of the unknown soldier's grave. These soldiers have a mother, who every day for the rest of her life has to live with an indescribable grief.

Many have children of their own. Children who no longer have a father. I have seen several YouTube clips in recent days, where Russian soldiers meet civilians. They talk civilized together, they openly make fun of each other, as we can jokingly do of the neighbor when we meet each other if, for example, he has not managed his driveway properly. They laugh brotherly together.

Enemies do not talk to each other, they do not laugh together! Ukrainians and Russians are not enemies! They are a brother people! Many wonder why the soldiers do not resist, why more Russians do not protest openly in the streets. They do, you just do not hear their voice. They will be imprisoned indefinitely, they will no longer have a future in Russia and many will lose their lives. On February 25, the Russian regime proposed reintroducing the death penalty.

The Russians are banned from all arenas, planes are stopped, imports of goods are stopped. Russia is being canned. Completely closed to the outside world. Russia's economy is being crushed. This is calculated by Putin. He is willing to sacrifice the future prospects and lives of his own. Millions of people on the Russian side will suffer in the foreseeable future because of Putin's actions.

What does he hope to achieve with this? Yes, he wants you to hate the Russian, he wants you to show your hatred so he can show it on all his propaganda channels then in Russia.

And why, you ask? He wants a growing nationalism. He wants the people to feel oppressed and attacked. This is how his ideology can grow and he can emerge as their only great salvation against the evil they now see from all over the world.

Does this sound familiar?

But Putin will not get his way! Putin has miscalculated. He has no support among his people! The people do not want war.

Ukrainians do not hate Russians and Russians do not hate Ukrainians. Most recently today, I read that Russian soldiers contacted Ukrainians for food. They did not threaten, they prayed. Ukraine's UN ambassador recently read out a text message from a young Russian soldier. The mother asks him where he is. They do not know and think he is on the Crimean peninsula. He replies that he is in Ukraine and that there is no exercise. He did not know he was going to go to war. Sacrificing his life for something he does not believe in. He says he's scared. A few minutes later he loses his life.

Putin makes his people suffer, let's suffer with them. Suffer with them all. All those who do not want war, all those who lose their lives, all mothers, fathers and children who for the rest of their lives must mourn an indescribable loss, both Ukrainians and Russians.

The world is holding its breath. We have never been so close to a third world war as now. Let us never forget the value of a human life! Always let humanism and love defeat hatred.

My identity must remain unknown for the sake of the safety of my own family, but I will continue to write, no one will be allowed to threaten me to silence. This is my war! War for humanity!

"Elisabeth" is a pseudonym for the safety of her Russian family. The editors know the article author's identity.
 
I did not say he was a genius, you said so in your reply. I referred to a russian citizen that talks to her people back home, and referred some of the things she said. You have a tendency to deliberately misunderstand things Nimic.

Don't be so defensive, I didn't say you said he was a genius. I was characterizing what you described a Russian national as saying as essentially boiling down to him being an evil genius. She's not the first to say it by a long shot, and she won't be the last, but the fact that she's Russian doesn't make her an expert (unless she's an actual expert). Plenty of people have been proven wrong on their assumptions in the last two weeks.
 
Looking forward to people now telling in a few years’ time that there has always been a strong separatist movement for a Russian-facing Kherson People’s Republic.

 
She is just getting a preemptive defense in when everyone starts asking why the Saudis are allowed to run Newcastle but Russians are not.

Yep and this whole debacle really highlights why Gulf states with appalling human rights records and Russian gangsters with close ties to authoritarian dictators should have never been allowed to own English football clubs.
 
Not sure what’s left to ban… Russian dolls?



This is a bit ridiculous to be fair…..
Looking forward to people now telling in a fee year’s time that there has always been a strong separatist movement for a Russian-facing Kherson People’s Republic.



When apologists blame the West‘s “harsh“ treatment of Russia in the 90s for the current mess, they forget that we could have played these games as well. The Caucuses and Tatarstan were all ripe for (genuine) independence.
 
I haven't kept track of the thread today, is there anything major i've missed? Is Kharkiv still being heavily attacked and has the Russian convoy gotten any closer to Kyiv?

Can't see that you got an answer so from what i've seen of the day:

Kharkiv situation not changed. Kyiv convey barely moved and looking less of a threat, but that could change in an instant. The town to NE of Kyiv, Chernihiv, now being focussed by Russian forces (amazing Ukraine still holds it tbf).

Mariupol surrounded and receiving heavy bombardment for going on 2 days uninterrupted. Russian fleet gearing up to assault Odessa.

Ukraine still seeing success hitting supply convorys with air force/TB2/Special Forces. A few more instances of Russian desertion/surrender.
 
Looking forward to people now telling in a few years’ time that there has always been a strong separatist movement for a Russian-facing Kherson People’s Republic.





Would sure be a shame if Ukrainian troops still in the area could start counter-insurgency tomorrow.
 
When weapons that can destroy a planet are being used, assassinating him or bombing the feck out of Kremlin until it's a 300 meter hole is not even close to being fanciful.
What's the other way, send nukes all over the world? This is not a game or a movie.

The US bombing the Kremlin to kill Putin and avoid Russia using nukes? That is a batshit crazy idea.
 


He also said this
"The federal government is working towards getting rid of gas, coal, and oil from Russia"

But it sounds like a long-term thing...

And he told the population to be more frugal in their energy consumption: "if you want to harm Putin, then you have to save energy."