Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RedorDead21 said:
Based on absolutely nothing from the past 20 years?
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Based on everything the past 20 years. Despots and tyrants haven fallen all over the world. Some replaced by other despots and tyrants, and some not replaced at all.
Russia is a mafia state. Their political core of corrupt gangsters are turning on the leader. Will the people finally turn on the gangsters in the aftermath?

I really don't see why this is such an unrealistic outcome.
 
Garethw said:
This is going to escalate to WW3 isn’t it?
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Provided that a war is always unpredictable, the Guardian is now reporting this, which at least suggests they are trying to agree a playbook:

  • The Pentagon has established communication with the Russian ministry of defense, “for the purpose of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation”, a defense official told the AP. That such a “deconfliction” line has been established has not been officially announced yet, but multiple news organizations have confirmed the news. The line was reportedly established on 1 March.
 
RedorDead21 said:
The sad thing is Britain and American for all their rhetoric about “Putin must lose”couldn’t really be doing more to ensure Ukraine is defeated…whilst walking the tightrope of saying and doing just enough to pacify some listeners. Its never enough to even come close to risking Putin not getting what he wants. Watching the playground bully beat a kid to death but can’t intervene because attention will turn to you. They’ve decided to let putin have Ukraine that’s obvious, they are up against an undefeatable force, even without the 5000 nuclear weapons they have. A line of military vehicles 40km long has been stationary for 3 days and isn’t even under threat of attack front the air. That fact alone says it’s over already. It’s WW3 to our leaders if they shoot at Russians but what the fcuk is it now for anyone Ukraine. Soon it will be the same for other countries. If it was a boxing match the white towel would be getting thrown in by now on their behalf. I mean the white flags are flying around the world already because you can’t beat a nuclear powerhouse.
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It’s more like Ukraine is just the latest, unfortunate, underserving warground in a more general list of wargrounds scattered on the entire planet, with any interested party playing their part.
 
What are these stupid cretins doing near that nuclear power plant? It's like they are either on a suicide mission or so utterly dumb they don't understand if that thing goes on meltdown they're all dead.
 
RedorDead21 said:
The sad thing is Britain and American for all their rhetoric about “Putin must lose”couldn’t really be doing more to ensure Ukraine is defeated…whilst walking the tightrope of saying and doing just enough to pacify some listeners. Its never enough to even come close to risking Putin not getting what he wants. Watching the playground bully beat a kid to death but can’t intervene because attention will turn to you. They’ve decided to let putin have Ukraine that’s obvious, they are up against an undefeatable force, even without the 5000 nuclear weapons they have. A line of military vehicles 40km long has been stationary for 3 days and isn’t even under threat of attack front the air. That fact alone says it’s over already. It’s WW3 to our leaders if they shoot at Russians but what the fcuk is it now for anyone Ukraine. Soon it will be the same for other countries. If it was a boxing match the white towel would be getting thrown in by now on their behalf. I mean the white flags are flying around the world already because you can’t beat a nuclear powerhouse.
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You might be right, but I can guarantee you that if your view prevailed at any point during the Cold War, human civilization wouldn't exist today. People aren't using "they've got nukes" as an excuse, it's the end game. War sucks, but even for the Ukrainians this is infinitely better than it would get if a genuine nuclear exchange took place, with World War 3. And even if everyone manages to restrain themselves enough to keep it a limited nuclear exchange and not the total destruction of humankind, the War that follows is going to be worse than anything we've seen yet.
 
Eurotrash said:
The whole thing summarizes my feelings exactly. The longer we wait to take action, the higher the price will be.
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The bit about choosing lower risk today for higher risk tomorrow is very poignant. That was basically Merkel's approach to governing Germany (and by extension setting the general direction for the EU), for all her supposed successes.

And now the chickens are coming home to roost.

VorZakone said:
There's probably many things the public doesn't know. Maybe Putin felt it wasn't the right moment yet. Maybe he wanted to wait out the pandemic.
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I thought there were rumours he was shit-scared of dying (in general as well) of Covid. Now he feels safer that he (probably) has the Western vaccine (no way he uses the Russian one :lol: ).

So he's up for the 'challenge' of making a historic mark, especially because he's lost two years of the very few he's probably got left, withou the speculated illness and other threats around him.

Raoul said:
This just underscoes that here is no feaasible way out for Putin in all of this. He will never be able to return to pre-invasion normalcy, nor will he be able to intimidate anyone with his farce of a military. He is basically reduced to being an insecure, old man with nukes. Can't see him lasting much longer to be honest.
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I didn't reply to your earlier post and I'd love for you to be right about him being cooked but I don't see it (no expert, just my opinion/feeling).

Suffice to say, for the past 15 years, whenever I've felt things can get worse, no matter how far-fetched, it's happened. I feeling dread about this guy and all the cronies too afraid to raise a hand against a geriatric.
 
nimic said:
You might be right, but I can guarantee you that if your view prevailed at any point during the Cold War, human civilization wouldn't exist today. People aren't using "they've got nukes" as an excuse, it's the end game. War sucks, but even for the Ukrainians this is infinitely better than it would get if a genuine nuclear exchange took place, with World War 3. And even if everyone manages to restrain themselves enough to keep it a limited nuclear exchange and not the total destruction of humankind, the War that follows is going to be worse than anything we've seen yet.
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It's all a big pile of shite this world we live in with all these super power nations finding themselves in the need of producing nuclear bombs. They can all go feck themselves. For what purpose other than to obliterate the planet would you ever need such a thing?
 
Cardboard elk said:
A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.
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The thing is to what end goal? The USSR-Afghanistan war nearly bankrupted and eventually broke up the USSR.

With all the current sanctions, how long can he maintain that posture?
 
Rightnr said:
This is giving me PTSD. Another Chernobyl would be too much...

The incompetent feckers can poison Europe before even getting into a real conflict.
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I actually have PTSD and all of this shit show has made it worse. I am trying to stay away from all this but it's almost impossible not to follow as it feels the entire planet is on the line here.
 
BlueHaze said:
I actually have PTSD and all of this shit show has made it worse. I am trying to stay away from all this but it's almost impossible not to follow as it feels the entire planet is on the line here.
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It's fecked up. I've learnt to ignore a lot in my life to stay sane but this is a step too far.

My family may be in the way of another nuclear disaster, happening in the same country as Chernobyl. But this time because of a rabid egocentric maniac with an incompetent army.

Meanwhile, Roman is getting praise for donating to charity and being a good owner of Chelski. Just too much.
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
Can we hope Putin gets a bad case of covid or is that frowned upon?
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I hope he gets a case of the Covidchok.

I'm curious what his precautions are right now for meetings aside from the two week isolation. I wonder if they have to go through metal detectors, etc. to be near him. Would be a real shame if the Kremlin received a bunch of nasal swabs covered in novichok for their COVID testing. Or maybe spike his Botox so he gets botulism.
 
Green_Red said:
Putin is a coward. I just watched a video of a village destroyed by Russian Air strikes. Children! Putin is a monster.

NATO needs to respond with military. I believe right now troops are being deployed in preparation of a response.

Even if people in the Ukraine identify as Russian the West has a responsibility to respond to this.
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Can't see it happening mate. Putin is already backed into a corner by sanctions, at this stage, he could be looking for any excuse to use his nuclear weapons. NATO intervention is highly unlikely.
 
atkar83 said:
What the hell is there to gain from destroying something so dangerous. This would probably make you lose any support you had. Wreckless
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If this thing blows up, this is a death sentence for most of Eastern Europe if it's truly that much bigger than Chernobyl.

It's also much further south. Depending on the winds, the whole of Europe could be turned into a contaminated site.

Someone needs to stop these feckwits.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Russia is already now starting to call-up reservists. If a general call-up follows, as rumoured, I wonder how Putin's propaganda will square all this with his pretence to the Russian public of a limited military engagement - and definitely not an "invasion"?
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Simple. He will tell the reservists that the West is coming to invade Mother Russia. They need to get prepped up. Some will go westwards towards Nazi Ukraine to stop them from killing their fellow Russians as we did in WW2.

The key is to set the initial premise -- Nazis to the west and the US wanting to kill Russians. The rest after is easy.
 
Of all the places to be fighting at night, this is absolutely crazy.

 
atkar83 said:
What the hell is there to gain from destroying something so dangerous. This would probably make you lose any support you had. Wreckless
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Russian’s propaganda has been adding some new lines to their bs: (“the Nazi rulers of Ukraine are developing nuclear weapons”)

So I guess it’s part of the “demilitarisation”
 
In case anyone has the nerves, here's livestream.

At least it appears the fighting has stopped for now but unconfirmed reports say there's elevated levels of radiation, possibly because of the emergency shut down procedure.

 
Rightnr said:
If this thing blows up, this is a death sentence for most of Eastern Europe if it's truly that much bigger than Chernobyl.

It's also much further south. Depending on the winds, the whole of Europe could be turned into a contaminated site.

Someone needs to stop these feckwits.
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It's also yet another reason why nuclear power plants are a bad idea ... aside from being unnecessary.

All risk equations have two parts: the estimated chances of event X happening + the consequences of event X happening, if it happens.

If the 2nd part is massive beyond almost imagination, it matters little if the 1st part is alleged to be tiny.

So the risk equation for nuclear power doesn't - and never did - make sense.
 
GlastonSpur said:
It's also yet another reason why nuclear power plants are a bad idea ... aside from being unnecessary.

All risk equations have two parts: the estimated chances of event X happening + the consequences of event X happening, if it happens.

If the 2nd part is massive beyond almost imagination, it matters little if the 1st part is alleged to be tiny.

So the risk equation for nuclear power doesn't - and never did - make sense.
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Disagree. Without nuclear power, we have nuclear Putin over our heads in Europe.

I am very much pro-Nuclear and outside of madness like Ukraine occuring, they are very, very safe.

Edit: my point is for the short and medium term where the transition to green can be smoothed.

If we had nuclear, Putin would not be in the position he's in now strategically.
 
Green_Red said:
I know for a fact that troops are being deployed to border regions in the event of the worst case scenario.

The only corner he's backed into is the one with China waiting to prop him up.
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I can see Art 5 kicking in as Russian troops make an incursion into say Poland. I cannot see NATO making the first move.
 
The speculation is that the Ukrainian forces have surrendered.

If the Russians really played a game of chicken with a huge power plant, I'm not sure how NATO can just sit back and watch. They're literally happy to risk turning Europe into a waste land, so they can wipe out a nation.

Now, there's reports one of the reactors is on fire but it's currently not operational but still has fuel.
 
Rightnr said:
Disagree. Without nuclear power, we have nuclear Putin over our heads in Europe.

I am very much pro-Nuclear and outside of madness like Ukraine occuring, they are very, very safe.

Edit: my point is for the short and medium term where the transition to green can be smoothed.

If we had nuclear, Putin would not be in the position he's in now strategically.
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Nuclear power stations are "very, very safe"? I've no idea how you can claim this at the very moment when Russian missile/artillery attacks appear to be threatening a catastrophic release of radiation that could potentially render half of Europe uninhabitable for centuries.

It's pointless saying safe "outside of madness like Ukraine occurring", because the potential for military strikes on nuclear reactors are part of our reality .... not some impossibly improbable occurrence.

Moreover, what is happening in Ukraine has very little to do with electricity generation. It's all about freedom and democracy vs control and oppression. This would not be changed if Europe had 10 times as many civil nuclear reactors than now.
 
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