Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone said:
Agreed, I didn't find him convincing. I think Putin considered this a one time golden opportunity to 'catch' Ukraine as it still wasn't in the NATO. An extremely brazen move, and we'll have to wait out the sanctions, but I don't see him attacking the Baltics.
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I think the response he has seen to the invasion of a non-Nato country have pretty much put to bed any chance attack on an actual Nato/EU country (e.g. Poland/Finland/Baltics).
 
Raoul said:
Probably because the presence of a NATO hostile US President was enough to help stall the spread of democracy.

Also, the price of oil was very low during much of Trump's term, which would've resulted in far less oil revenue for the Russian state.
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And, I never bought this Trump was in Putin’s pocket. Trump was the useful idiot but not on his pocket.

Trump was also extremely unpredictable. Safer to invade where the West is more rational. My thinking is that Putin has done the calculations (rightly or wrongly), and in the end it will end with him getting Ukraine. Just that the price is much higher than he anticipated. With Trump in the White House, doing the calculations would have been far harder. It could have ended with the US doing nothing with respect to Ukraine to the US starting shooting Russia’s airplanes. Which is why I think Putin waited.

Another possible scenario is that he waited just in case Trump wins and NATO dies. That makes the job much easier for Russians to invade.
 
MoskvaRed said:
The one thing I don’t get - why didn’t he invade 18 months ago when his mate was in the White House? If the US was on the sidelines, I doubt Europe would have felt emboldened to take such decisive action.
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Well, he actually did everything he wanted to do in Syria -with Trump's consent- and all the West watched from the sidelines. I honestly don't think a Trump reelection would have changed Putin's plans for Ukraine. How he sees it as a natural playground for Russia's influence.

During a G7 summit, Trump literally said that Crimea should belong to Russia because people there speak Russian. Nobody in the west has ever come close to expressing such a stupid thing.
 
VorZakone said:
And not only will Putin bring back Ukraine under Russian influence, he'll also have fueled another humanitarian refugee crisis. As a result of more refugees coming in, we might witness an even bigger increase in right-wing populism in the West.
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Not really sure. These are European refuges, not Arabic ones, so even conservative people in Europe are more willing/tolerant towards them.
 
I really don’t understand why dead bodies aren’t posted in this thread.

Shouldn’t everyone, everywhere be seeing this? Why cover up the atrocities?

Really don’t get it.
 
VorZakone said:
And not only will Putin bring back Ukraine under Russian influence, he'll also have fueled another humanitarian refugee crisis. As a result of more refugees coming in, we might witness an even bigger increase in right-wing populism in the West.
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No chance.
 
Red Dreams said:
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
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A NATO-inclined Ukraine is no threat to Russia. It's a threat - because of the freedom and democracy it sets as an example - to Putin's regime.

This is all about Putin's gangster-state, not Russia.
 
Climate crisis, Energy crisis, war, economical problems, pandemic, refugee crisis, now maybe wheat crisis and what the feck all that is happening, I think we will have to adjust to new realities in many aspects, all of us. I believe the world we had was the best part. I am happy I grew up in the 80s. Sorry for the pessimism but things do look a tad bleak at the moment. It is getting to me that we are so helpless and have to sit and watch this like some kind of realityshow with a sneaking bad ending :/ What kind of world will our sons and daughters inherit.. We fail as a species.
 
Revan said:
Not really sure. These are European refuges, not Arabic ones, so even conservative people in Europe are more willing/tolerant towards them.
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But for how long until people will complain about housing, welfare and such, and start feeling annoyed about them? Even if ungrounded in reality? Some right wing populist will come along and exploit these resentments.
 
Rajma said:
I think the response he has seen to the invasion of a non-Nato country have pretty much put to bed any chance attack on an actual Nato/EU country (e.g. Poland/Finland/Baltics).
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Yep. He may wondered before all this but there can be no doubt about the western resolve around NATO now.
 
Some thoughts on Putin’s supposed objectives:

1. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO/EU - he has advertised the benefit of full Western alignment such that Moldova and Georgia are also applying to the EU.

2. Ukraine is basically a region of Russia with a funny dialect - Ukraine has probably now the strongest sense of nationhood in Its entire history.

3. Securing the oil and gas pipeline - Europe is now committed to diversification, Nordstream is dead, and, if he does want to occupy or maintain control of southern Ukraine for the transit route, no one will buy it.

4. Projecting regional and global power - his army has performed poorly, shattering the myth of military might, and, in the process of invading, he is reducing his already under- sized economy to third world level.

All in all, a total mess facilitated by 20+ years in office and being surrounded by lackeys.
 
VorZakone said:
But for how long until people will complain about housing, welfare and such, and start feeling annoyed about them? Even if ungrounded in reality? Some right wing populist will come along and exploit these resentments.
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I'd say it's just as likely to swing the other way. Putin sympathy is strongly linked to the far right wing now.

What happened with right wing politics in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland?
 
B20 said:
Yep. He may wondered before all this but there can be no doubt about the western resolve around NATO now.
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I think that's a generous assessment, considering we're basically watching while Russia flattens a country of 40m people, too afraid to even send unmanned Migs, and our sanctions may be effective, but they still lack conviction, with all their loopholes for diamonds and 30 day warning period.
 
do.ob said:
I think that's a generous assessment, considering we're basically watching while Russia flattens a country of 40m people, too afraid to even send unmanned Migs, and our sanctions may be effective, but they still lack conviction, with all their loopholes for diamonds and 30 day warning period.
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We are only a week into this and I'd be shocked if in 30 days Kyiv wasn't rubble or surrendered
 
MoskvaRed said:
All in all, a total mess facilitated by 20+ years in office and being surrounded by lackeys.
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Which is a greater reason for my firm belief in term limits in any political domain in the world. No country can evolve nor learn to be better unless it moves on with younger leaders with fresh ideas over time.
 
B20 said:
Yep. He may wondered before all this but there can be no doubt about the western resolve around NATO now.
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I'm guessing it would be more about cyber attacks, propaganda and election tampering culminating in regime change more favourable to Russia.

I suspect if Ukraine goes according to Putin's (now revised) plans the thought process for the next targeted nation would be closer to Belarus than Ukraine.

The biggest miscalculation of course is that in my view nothing would make a country more impenetrable to fascist interference than seeing a neighbour's independence crushed and its people murdered with impunity by a fascist dictator.
 
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I haven't kept track of the thread today, is there anything major i've missed? Is Kharkiv still being heavily attacked and has the Russian convoy gotten any closer to Kyiv?
 
GlastonSpur said:
A NATO-inclined Ukraine is no threat to Russia. It's a threat - because of the freedom and democracy it sets as an example - to Putin's regime.

This is all about Putin's gangster-state, not Russia.
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Exactly. Are people only saying this because Putin keeps saying this? How exactly would Ukraine joining NATO be a viable threat to Russia? What does it threaten?
 
MoskvaRed said:
Some thoughts on Putin’s supposed objectives:

1. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO/EU - he has advertised the benefit of full Western alignment such that Moldova and Georgia are also applying to the EU.

2. Ukraine is basically a region of Russia with a funny dialect - Ukraine has probably now the strongest sense of nationhood in Its entire history.

3. Securing the oil and gas pipeline - Europe is now committed to diversification, Nordstream is dead, and, if he does want to occupy or maintain control of southern Ukraine for the transit route, no one will buy it.

4. Projecting regional and global power - his army has performed poorly, shattering the myth of military might, and, in the process of invading, he is reducing his already under- sized economy to third world level.

All in all, a total mess facilitated by 20+ years in office and being surrounded by lackeys.
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This just underscoes that here is no feaasible way out for Putin in all of this. He will never be able to return to pre-invasion normalcy, nor will he be able to intimidate anyone with his farce of a military. He is basically reduced to being an insecure, old man with nukes. Can't see him lasting much longer to be honest.
 
dal said:
I really don’t understand why dead bodies aren’t posted in this thread.

Shouldn’t everyone, everywhere be seeing this? Why cover up the atrocities?

Really don’t get it.
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Not posting graphic sex and violence is fairly standard across forums. Even more so with an ongoing situation where people might know some of the souls involved.

Mental health is not a trivial concern.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Which is a greater reason for my firm belief in term limits in any political domain in the world. No country can evolve nor learn to be better unless it moves on with younger leaders with fresh ideas over time.
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If a constitution is not enforced in the spirit, it’s not worth the paper it’s written on. Technically Putin had to step down after two terms but instead became prime minister under a puppet president (Medvedev). After 4 years, he then dropped the pretence and returned as president.
 
How protected is Putin? Is it possible that in near future we see some special forces Ukranian killing him with a sniper or some bomb taliban style? I know it's a long shot and that he is almost impossible to reach but surely many would happily do it, there are many people who hate him even in Moscow.

At least that's seems like Ukraine's and world's biggest hope.
 
Pintu said:
Just saw this on my Twitter feed. Is this real? Could Putin get anymore isolated than when the US’s enemies are calling him out publicly?



i went to his profile and this was yesterday.
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Does he know Zelensky is Jewish? World is a weird place these days.
 
The Firestarter said:
Does he know Zelensky is Jewish? World is a weird place these days.
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It's for an other thread but isn't he against Israel as a state and not against jewish people themselves? Anti-zionist and not antisemite?
 
Kremlin-Backed RT America Lays Off Most Of Its Staff


The Kremlin-backed network RT America is effectively shuttering after the cable station laid off most of its staff, CNN reported on Thursday.

RT America’s production company, T&R productions announced it will cease operations “as a result of unforeseen business interruption events.”

In a memo to staff, T&R general manager Misha Solodovnikov told employees, “Unfortunately, we anticipate this layoff will be permanent, meaning that this will result in the permanent separation from employment of most T&R employees at all locations.”

CNN reports that the layoffs “would mean an effective end to RT America.”

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week, the network has come under increasing scrutiny and pressure given its ties to Moscow. On Tuesday, DirecTV said it will be dropping RT from its list of channels.

“In line with our previous agreement with RT America, we are accelerating this year’s contract expiration timeline and will no longer offer their programming effective immediately,” the carrier said in a statement. For its part, Apple removed the RT app from its app store in all countries except for Russia.

Formerly known as Russia Today, RT has several sister stations around the world, including United Kingdom and France.

RT America launched in 2010 and has since offered a steady diet pro-Russia coverage.
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JPRouve said:
It's for an other thread but isn't he against Israel as a state and not against jewish people themselves? Anti-zionist and not antisemite?
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Some of the rhetoric that has come from Iran during the years doesn't point to that but I guess things are changing.
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Amar__ said:
How protected is Putin? Is it possible that in near future we see some special forces Ukranian killing him with a sniper or some bomb taliban style? I know it's a long shot and that he is almost impossible to reach but surely many would happily do it, there are many people who hate him even in Moscow.
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He's definitely not untouchable regardless of how much he wants to project it. If Putin is about to do something that pushes a top government official and member of his inner circle over the edge, what happened to South Korean president Park Chung-hee in 1979 may well happen in Russia.
 
Amar__ said:
How protected is Putin? Is it possible that in near future we see some special forces Ukranian killing him with a sniper or some bomb taliban style? I know it's a long shot and that he is almost impossible to reach but surely many would happily do it, there are many people who hate him even in Moscow.

At least that's seems like Ukraine's and world's biggest hope.
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Would almost be disappointed if this isn’t something the CIA has been working on for a while. Probably it’s not possible though - just look how far he sits from his advisors in meetings.
 
VorZakone said:
This is likely why the Ukrainians are doing so well on the ground, I reckon.

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I think that was obvious. They are clearly getting access to satellite intel, probably getting some access to Russian comms, and must be getting tactical advice.
 
Chairman Woodie said:
Perhaps Iran. In terms of isolation, North Korea too.
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A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.
 
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