Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

MoskvaRed said:
No, there is no normalisation as long as Putin stays in power. This is not Crimea 2014 - there is a clear shift in European attitudes with even Germany reversing 80 years of pacifism. Until he goes, they will be treated as a pariah.

As for the Russians deciding who leads their country, I don’t think that has ever genuinely happened once in their entire history (even in the 90s). The next leader will be the choice of the ruling clique of siloviki and energy sector interests.
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I agree.

I worded it poorly.
 
Red Dreams said:
I do not think it will be that similar at all.
There is a power structure.

Russia depends on trade with the West. Putin knows this. He is gambling on the West blinking first.

Others want to go back to some form of 'normality'. Hopefully they persuade him.
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Who is in his orbit to pursuade him?
 
NoLogo said:
These pesky Ukrainian neo-Nazis building houses in the flight path of his bombs, tatata. :nono:
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If you look at it from another angle, those Ukrainians really do use civilians as a human shield. It's just that they are that human shield :(
 
Red Dreams said:
Where in those sanctions does it say he needs to be removed?
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They don't say it outright, but the impact will incentivize his removal due to the chaos they cause within Russia. They could of course also be a valuable tool if Putin decides to capitulate because he wants to remain alive, which would then be a basis for negotiating a withdrawal in exchange for a phases removal of sanctions.
 
stefan92 said:
Of course. It is absolutely the right of the NATO to encircle Russia and it is the right of Russia to be pissed about it (to be clear: not the right to wage war because of it).

But the point is, it was a deliberate decision by the old NATO members to include East Europe and apply pressure on Russia, it is not a decision unilaterally made by the newer members, but some people make it sound like that here, and thst is just wrong.
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But why would Russia be pissed off about countries wanting to join a defensive alliance if they are a peaceful nation and have no plans to invade those countries...

...oh wait.
 
Raoul said:
They don't say it outright, but the impact will incentivize his removal due to the chaos they cause within Russia. They could of course also be a valuable tool if Putin decides to capitulate because he wants to stay alive, which would then be a basis for negotiating a withdrawal in exchange for a phases removal of sanctions.
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Well of course.

I mentioned 'loss of face'.
Lets remember that whoever ends up leading Russia would not want to be seen as weak.
Submitting.

It has to look on the surface at least as a win win.
 
Red Dreams said:
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
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Go away and take your stupid lies with you.
 
Unbelievable what’s happening inside Russia itself.

Non state run media being shut down with parliament to pass a law that anyone spreading misinformation about the war to face 15 years in prison.

That’s to go along side anyone protesting or speaking openly against the war to face 6-8 years.

The whole country is being oppressed here and the irony is Putin speaks about De-Nazification of the Ukraine… the whole thing is fecked. I don’t see any way back for Russia led by Putin now. The sanctions in place have crippled the Ruble and as @harms pointed out are having an impact on the Russian people already; they’ll only get harsher and more impactful.

You can’t help but feel something is going to break from within.
 
Ananke said:
Funny how you haven't mentioned Putin's huge role. "I can't justify Putin invading Russia...but it's mainly the wests fault" right...

If you were thinking about putting a headguard on, can I punch you in the face before you do and say you had a huge role in my actions?
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:lol:
 
Red Dreams said:
@Cardboard elk

Thanks.

But I was saying Putin is using that treaty as his dateline to start from Russia giving up what was theirs.

As I said it was his so called 'reason'.
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Yes I understand that you meant that :) It is just that he has no limits, Russia in the old days did not either. If he got everything from 1918 he would just invent another reason to even grab more land.
 
sun_tzu said:
TBF they will be killed long before they actually have to fight... Probably pretty brutally by their own side and then their tortured bodies will be proof of the neo Nazi drug addict ukranian war crimes forcing putin to have to use chemical weapons / tactical nukes for the greater good...
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I see you have the requisite tactical nous to join the Federal Security Services! Big brother Vlad is tied of working with those who lack such vision.
 
Red Dreams said:
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
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As soon as the Ukrainians voted out Putin's Stooge and elected a guy that wasn't being bought, Putin made the decision to take Ukraine over. Unless the EU/Nato had something to do with that election, this is more about Putins reaction to him losing his puppet than anything else. Plus Putin took over crimea while it was under the watch of his stooge, so its not like he didn't have this plan before
 
sun_tzu said:
Possibly but the likelihood might be overplayed because we all hope it's going to happen
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I just can’t think of a country being placed under such pressure and isolation in the modern world. It will only get worse too.

How much will the Russian people take too?
 
Red Dreams said:
The way to get these former Warsaw Pact countries to 'join the west' is not to make NATO any kind of condition.

In fact the goal should be to eventually disband the need for NATO.
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There will always be a need for NATO, as Putin has proved.

There is a reason the former Soviet satelites want to jpoin NATO, can you guess what that is?
 
Somewhat positive news from the peace talks today:

BBC -
'Understanding' reached on evacuation corridors - Ukraine negotiator
We have some more details from the Ukraine-Russia talks.
Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak says the sides have reached an understanding on "jointly securing humanitarian corridors to evacuate peaceful civilians, and also on supplying medicine and food to the places of the most fierce fighting".
He adds there is a possibility, "I stress, with a possibility of a temporary ceasefire for the evacuation period in certain sectors".


Both sides also reached an understanding on the delivery of medicines and food to the places where the fiercest fighting was taking place. Without elaborating, Podolyak said the outcome of today’s talks had fallen short of Ukraine’s hopes.

On the Russian side, Russia’s main negotiator and former culture minister, Vladimir Medinsky, said: The main question that we decided on today was the issue of saving people, civilians, who are in the zone of military clashes. Russia calls on civilians who find themselves in this situation, if military actions continue, to use these humanitarian corridors.
Another Russian negotiator, the nationalist lawmaker Leonid Slutsky, said the agreements will be “implemented in the near future”. Today’s talks mark the first time Ukraine and Russia have agreed to any form of progress on any issue since Russia invaded Ukraine a week ago. A third round of talks is set to take place at the start of next week, the Belarus state news agency Belta cited Podolyak as saying.
 
Jerch said:
Yeah it's great news especially since Russia will definitely think "oh look at that brave civilians from Nato countries armed with Nato weapons who are definitely casual brave civilians and not trained Nato solders". This will definitely deescalate the crisis.

And before someone says to me Sweden is not a Nato member, I know that but those Foreign Legion solders comes from all Europe including Britain for which Johnson said that they will arm every man who volunteers to fight in those legions.
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Let's give them Ukranian citizenship, I'm sure the EU would be happy to help speed that up if there are any bureaucratic issues.

Putin's entire argument is based on BS, a propaganda narrative he's been pushing for years and years. What right to face Ukraine with no allies can he claim, especially when he's bringing in soldiers from other countries?

Russia hasn't been able to stop the flow of supplies into Ukraine, all they have are threats to use. If he could actually do anything, he'd be doing it to stop that. Even Turkey is thumbing their nose at him.

If the world doesn't help Ukraine, you're telling China and Russia they can take over and non-nuclear country in the world that's not in NATO. All off the back of a bluff. We did the cold war, no body wants to end the world by launching. If he's "crazy" enough to launch then it doesn't really matter what we do, but I think he's made a horrible mistake and threats of nukes are all he has left. To let him turn that into a win would be tragic.

How do you tell North Korea they don't need nukes to protect themselves from Russia, now?
 
The more I think of it, the more I believe we're witnessing a sort of revolution in Russia.
The oligarchs are turning. Putin won't stick around for long.
But who emerges from the power vacuum? I reckon it's going to be the people. Somehow.
 
Why on earth are they fighting near nuclear power plants? Does Putin and Russia not realize any damage to that will have devastating effects on Russia as well?
 
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