Is that not part of a negotiation?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Is that not part of a negotiation?
Or as requested by Zelensky he is the intermediary between Zelensky and Putin?
Because it makes you uncomfortable none of us should talk about causes of war? okay.
At this point, it looks more likely they'll blow a nuclear power plant by chance than (or rather before) they use nukes.
If those around Putin want a way back in the near future, they need to act now.
A nuclear power plant disaster would be an absolute tragedy for Europe.
If those around Putin want a way back in the near future, they need to act now.
A nuclear power plant disaster would be an absolute tragedy for Europe.
You guys have a different thread to discuss in. Can you please move it over there.
again, for the situation to reach that point, do you realize how many lives will be lost in the process?
Yes. Putin isn't going home empty handed.
The West will be wanting an off ramp for Putin. Public belligerent statements from each don't mean that they aren't establishing private contact through back channels as a matter of priority (Macron seems to be chatting to Putin an awful lot). They'll need to come up with something that Putin can paint as some sort of victory back home and will resolve in dropping sanctions. feck knows what that looks like, but they'll be trying to.
Russia being quick to open negotiations with Ukraine (even if it is through Belarus and heavily one sided) does indicated that diplomacy is still being dangled and considered, which is a glimmer of hope.
The reason Putin gave for invading Ukraine was about as fictional as the reason Bush told everyone his reason to invade Iraq was.
Putin says hes there to kill Nazis and decommunise Ukraine. This is not me speculating his actual reason this is what he is saying. When GW wentto invade Iraq i was a young teenager and remember being scared that a brutal Dictator like Saddam had WMDs. I remember seeing Iraqis thrilled that Saddams regime was toppled and to me looked like they were happy the Americans finally came in. But the reason they came in was made up. No WMDs, just like Putin isnt there to defeat fecking nazis. I know now that the americans should never had went into iraq they should have left it alone and let the people living under saddam living under his brutality in peace. The lied and committed crimes and invaded a country and it was worng. We should have done more to stop them as humanity but we didnt, they have the biggest most advanced military in the world, they have the biggest economy in the world and they were all united under 9/11 with Bush seeing 80% aprproval rating. Nobody was going to sanction them because nobody could. Everything is about power and nobody had the power to stop them save for some anti war demonstrations.
As for Ukraine, like most invasions , All this ever is about, is natural resources and strategic military locations. The nato expansion to me is a boogie man Putin likes to brandish around as if he's actually concerned about an invasion into russia by Nato. He knows Nato would never ever attack him or russia, not in a million years. Its why he knew he could go into Georgia and Ukraine untouched because before feburary 22 Nato was a feckless orginasation that we could argue probably wouldnt go and defend the baltic states if they were under attack. This whole nato expansion being threatning to putin is just one big pile of non sense. End of the day he just wants to be seen as the next Peter the Great and go coquor land in the name of Russia so he can make them seem relevant again.
As I've said, it's a very weird case of connotational development that mirrors a much bigger picture of cultural transformation executed by Putin's government over the past 2 decades. I'll link this article, it was decent if I'm not mistaken, on how the myth of the great patriotic war was shaped into a myth of new Russia's creation (like the October revolution was for USSR, the signing of declaration of Independence is for USA etc.). So this term, originally used in a reference to specific ideology (Italian -> Spanish -> German etc. in terms of fascism, German in terms of Nazi/nazism), now simply means enemy... but not just an enemy, the worst possible enemy that you have to fight with all your strength, leaving all hesitation behind. When we were walking through Moscow changing "No to war" a few people (it was always middle-aged women for whatever reason) cursed at us and shouted "fascists" which would seem like an odd choice of words for any non-Russian, I would think — describing people that literally ask for the violence to stop.
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...riotic-war-a-tool-kremlins-great-power-policy
But they haven't though, have they? Instead Cuba is sanctioned to the eyeballs to the consternation of the rest of the world.
In Putin's speech he referred to the 1918 treaty and the regions that were part of the old Russian empire.
That was his so called 'reason'.
Its clear this is his big 'push back' to the West.
What the US and the West now have to think about is how get back to 'normalization' of some sort.
Thanks for that insight. When I think about it, it actually is not much different to some political discussions in Germany. There is a sad tendency to call everyone "Nazi" who disagrees to something while slightly leaning to the right. But while in Russia that seems to be widespread, here you can use it as a safe indicator who you shouldn't discuss with as it is useless - at some point you will get called a Nazi and the other one feels to be the moral winner, but this is still a minority of stupid leftist people (a lot of them - so far - liked Putin, so even in that regard it fits well).
Why won’t you say where you’re from? The fact you’re hiding it suggests an agenda given your contributions here to date.
There simply can’t be a normalisation after this, not with Putin still in charge of Russia.
Businesses can’t simply restart trading with them, nations can’t simply restart trading and negotiating with them.
This event has permanently changed the landscape of the planet and as far as I see it, there’s only two ways to end it.
thanks for clearing that up, we had a discussion in the office today about this. ( Zelenskiy and Nazi )
Its not so much going back 'empty handed'
The trick is about how to back down without it looking like you are backing down.
It must look like both sides want the final outcome.
There's no such thing as normalization with Putin. He is an authoritarian dictator with nukes who has to go on the attack to prevent democracy reaching Russia, resulting in the toppling of his regime and his own execution. He must therefore always go on the attack of neighboring states to destabilize or invade them to prevent Russia going democratic. The only way to reach a normal equilibrium is for Putin to be removed through the pressure of sanctions,
without a no fly zone at the least (which would be madness in the context of nato vs russia), other than russia taking over ukraine eventually regardless of the human cost, there is no other way of this ending. surely the issue is the timescale. economic pressure on russia will obviously build, but can anyone really see it harming putin to the extent he pulls back.
Yeh he made mention of the deep roots they have but his actually given reason to go there as he's currently telling the world is to de Nazify Ukraine whatever that means...it's an absurd claim...even more absurd than looking for wmds that don't exist.
Also I have no clue how they normalise this. Everything is fecked.
Even so, Cuba held their ground long enough until the Obama administration began to open up and basically accept that it is impossible for the US to draw Cuba back into the American sphere of influence. They are still holding on even though there were recent protests from Cubans asking their government to do their job in times of COVID, totally unrelated to geopolitical games.
0 chance he pulls back accepting defeat. If a face saving option which he can sell as a 'win' can be found, yes.
If there is an agreement, things will go back to normal as much as it can do.
The Russians will decide who they want to lead their country.
ha yes because dictators stay in power due to the overwhelming love of their people.
Are you seriously saying we can dictate that he be removed?
Even if internally the consensus there is they want Putin removed, do you think Russia will accept our dictates?
We agree on a lot but I'm curious how do you think Putin gets removed? The old-fashioned way?
Is it through secret service back channels or through applying pressure on those around him? Seems like the much-despised weakness and lack of backbone (by Putin) is just as present at the top of the Putin regime as it is in the much-despised West.
This was the point I was trying to make. How does a country in this part of the world safely go about the journey of joining the NATO and EU without merely becoming a target for Russian interference and invasion in the meantime? Once we extend the hand out, don’t we take on some further obligation to them?
I’m one of the people who have been most obviously wearing the Ukrainian part of my heart on my sleeve here, so I’m definitely not trying to be contrarian.
He may however be going back to an empty home.
Pity Vlad didn't give the Ukainians the luxury of having that choice.
This would probably require a toppling of the government similar to the 1917 revolution. Many lives will also be lost in that process
It's fine they have history
It is time to stand up to the big bully that is Putin. If we don't, we are all doomed anyway.
These pesky Ukrainian neo-Nazis building houses in the flight path of his bombs, tatata.
Think about half of the electricity in ukraine is generated from their 15 nuclear reactors
Almost half of these reactors are in one plant ... So I'd guess they pretty much have to keep them running
No, there is no normalisation as long as Putin stays in power. This is not Crimea 2014 - there is a clear shift in European attitudes with even Germany reversing 80 years of pacifism. Until he goes, they will be treated as a pariah.
As for the Russians deciding who leads their country, I don’t think that has ever genuinely happened once in their entire history (even in the 90s). The next leader will be the choice of the ruling clique of siloviki and energy sector interests.
I do not think it will be that similar at all.
There is a power structure.
Russia depends on trade with the West. Putin knows this. He is gambling on the West blinking first.
Others want to go back to some form of 'normality'. Hopefully they persuade him.
If you take the time to read this guys historical posts about Russias genocides and invasions the last 100-150 years, you will see that they did not sit quietly in the boat after 1918.
This is a few of the examples of Russias behaviour after 1918. There are more posts like this if you scroll. There is a pattern and it goes way back, and Putin is continuing this now.
Putin is well known to have been spooked by the spectacle of Qaddafi's public demise. Short of someone within his inner circle taking matters into their own hands, I think there's a legit chance he could go down like this.