Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Ekkie Thump]

No disrespect but I think that Russian empire narrative is made up one from the west and I don't think many people actually believed this.
About other requests I think they are more request for negotiations than actually wishlist.

It is quite literally part of the narrative that Putin himself used to justify this war to his Russian audience. He's written numerous tracts and articles detailing the reasons why Ukraine and Russia should be one. He even wrote a manifesto on the subject and made it required reading throughout the armed forces.

Here's an article he penned in 2021 - hosted on the Kremlin.ru website (wayback machine, Kremlin.ru is down).

You might even find you agree with it, but how is this a western invention if Putin wrote it and Putin speaks it?

 

[Revan]

In principle, yes of course.
But as with everything, putting it into practice has proven to be next to impossible.
Think about N Korea. Are they going to agree.
Russia will never ever agree. It is their primary leverage, as we have just seen.

It has been tried and tried over the years. And Russia for example still had them by the thousands.
CND was a massive movement a few decades ago, but got nowhere.

To be fair, both the US and Russia went from over 30K to around 6K each. That's a massive reduction.

Of course, we should aim to reducing them more. It should be in the hundreds as soon as possible, and ideally to just a few under UN (to hit asteroids or whatever). The former could be done if there is willingness.

 

[Balljy]

Yeah, one of the weirdest sanctions is Western universities kicking Russian students out/taking back their scholarships etc. Surely it works for Putin, not against him?

I get most of the sanctions even though they feck me over massively as a Russian citizen as they put a burden on Russian economy and instigate public unrest. How sanctioning poor students that got out of there to get a proper education, fleeing Putin’s regime, I have no idea.

It'll be to create a long-term brain drain in the country, similar to how the EU also want to poach educated Russians to reduce the education levels in the country itself. The worry would be they go back and help the Russian economy after education. I agree, that it is a step too far and the Russian people are being massively impacted for something that's not their fault though.

 

[IWat]

It'll be to create a long-term brain drain in the country, similar to how the EU also want to poach educated Russians to reduce the education levels in the country itself. The worry would be they go back and help the Russian economy after education. I agree, that it is a step too far and the Russian people are being massively impacted for something that's not their fault though.

Yeah, I can't comment on the state of Russian unis, but the fact a lot of those wealthy enough to do so seemingly want to send their children elsewhere speaks volumes to me.

 

[Jerch]

He said that on live TV. Did you watch it?

Or did you read his essay about solving the Ukrainian question that he published last July (and then Medvedev published something similar a few months later).

It is quite literally part of the narrative that Putin himself used to justify this war to his Russian audience. He's written numerous tracts and articles detailing the reasons why Ukraine and Russia should be one. He even wrote a manifesto on the subject and made it required reading throughout the armed forces.

Here's an article he penned in 2021 - hosted on the Kremlin.ru website (wayback machine, Kremlin.ru is down).

You might even find you agree with it, but how is this a western invention if Putin wrote it and Putin speaks it?

I will just replay with one of his quotes:
Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain - Putin

 

[Abhinav]

Tbf only 44% of countries in the world is free and democratic. Arguably even less true democratic countries.
When the world peace is at stake I don't think we should push free and democratic narrative no matter what.

So for ‘world peace’, Ukraine should lose its right to self determination. I am sorry but this narrative that west and Russia should be able to decide the fate of another country, just because it doesn’t have the same resources, is coming off as supremacist. Ukraine is fighting for its independence and self determination - their future course cannot be decided on whether someone in the western world feels safe and assured.

 

[matt10000]

Tbf nuclear has been responsible for alot of war not happening... until the day it doesnt...

Without nuclear nato would have jumped on and bombed russia to stone age.

Indeed, this is what Churchill wanted to do at the end of WW2.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...d-churchill-want-fight-stalin-1945-152596?amp

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I will just replay with one of his quotes:
Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain - Putin

Just read the goddam article and then come back and claim with a straight face that Putin doesn't pine for empire.

 

[Smithy89]

The great Russian army is a bit of a myth now, without the threat of nuclear and illegal bombs they've supposedly used, they'd have been picked off and decimated during this invasion. All Nato and US would have needed to do is take control of the airspace and the convoys wouldn't have made it past east Ukraine.

 

[matt10000]

To be fair, both the US and Russia went from over 30K to around 6K each. That's a massive reduction.

Of course, we should aim to reducing them more. It should be in the hundreds as soon as possible, and ideally to just a few under UN (to hit asteroids or whatever). The former could be done if there is willingness.

Noce idea but as soon as war started countries just build them again.

 

[IWat]

To be fair, both the US and Russia went from over 30K to around 6K each. That's a massive reduction.

Of course, we should aim to reducing them more. It should be in the hundreds as soon as possible, and ideally to just a few under UN (to hit asteroids or whatever). The former could be done if there is willingness.

How does that work in reality though? Everyone disarms, some are put under the control of UN. North Korea or whoever decides to screw it and develop them again. Countries go to the UN with the view of stopping them via the nukes under their control. China vetos as an ally of NK. What do you do then?

 

[11101]

Yeah, one of the weirdest sanctions is Western universities kicking Russian students out/taking back their scholarships etc. Surely it works for Putin, not against him?

I get most of the sanctions even though they feck me over massively as a Russian citizen as they put a burden on Russian economy and instigate public unrest. How sanctioning poor students that got out of there to get a proper education, fleeing Putin’s regime, I have no idea.

I know that UK private schools have together agreed not to take money from Russians. I'm not sure what it means for the kids but there are a lot of very wealthy Russians with kids in places like Eton and Harrow.

 

[ShoePolish]

Personally, I think the real question is this: if the West knew that NATO membership talks would make Russia invade Ukraine, should we have advocated for Ukraine neutrality for Ukraine's own good will? We can talk about sovereignty all we want but the fact is Ukraine is now in a war with Russia and people are dying.

In other words, should we have disappointed Ukraine by saying "we're sorry but we won't be discussing NATO membership, not now and not in the future, period.".

That's the thing, it wouldn't be their own good will. They would become Russia regardless, but it's name. If they can't make a fundamental decision like that by themselves, that's not being sovereign, and that is again a war won without shooting a bullet, as ukrainian people would essentially be under russian ruling.
It would save him a war here, but this would likely be happening elsewhere right now, perhaps not in a full scale war, but an escalation away from starting, Finland is not in NATO too, maybe he'd actually be trying to poke and prod NATO members right now, who knows? Or destabilizing the treaty further until he can pounce? Building a war chest further, nord stream 2 about to open and flood his pockets more and more.
And if you think this war is bloody, it's a hard sell for russian people to attack Ukraine, it wouldn't be elsewhere.

 

[Carolina Red]

I will just replay with one of his quotes:
Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain - Putin

There was a whole ass Russian Empire before the Soviet Union.

 

[JuveGER]

No disrespect but I think that Russian empire narrative is made up one from the west and I don't think many people actually believed this.
About other requests I think they are more request for negotiations than actually wishlist.

Putin has explicitly questioned the legitimacy of a Ukraine state and particularly its current borders, claiming that the east of Ukraine is Russian land and that Russia was robbed. He has repeatedly stated that Belarus, Ukraine and Russia are a Russian unity, and we can all guess who he sees as leading that "Union". In addition to Ukraine, he has meddled in Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan among others to bring regions or entire countries under his thumb. Belarus is a full on puppet state. No disrespect, but you are (willingly?) naive if you cannot see the imperialist mindset behind these actions.

 

[Mihai]

No disrespect but I think that Russian empire narrative is made up one from the west and I don't think many people actually believed this.
About other requests I think they are more request for negotiations than actually wishlist.

No disrespect, but i think you are misinformed on this topic.

The thread below will give you a bit of insight.

 

[11101]

In principle, yes of course.
But as with everything, putting it into practice has proven to be next to impossible.
Think about N Korea. Are they going to agree.
Russia will never ever agree. It is their primary leverage, as we have just seen.

It has been tried and tried over the years. And Russia for example still had them by the thousands.
CND was a massive movement a few decades ago, but got nowhere.

They are going nowhere.

The solution is to build defences against them. The US is some of the way there, as we discussed in the military thread according to them it's 97% effective. Whether that's true or not, it needs to be 99%+ and with blanket geographical coverage before we can go head to head with a nuclear armed country.

 

[gorky_utd]

We definitely need to do more on nuclear disarmament. We can't have despots wanting to blow up the world every 50 years.

Why? The only reason India and Pakistan have not gone into a complete war in recent times is nuclear bomb. Same for China vs India. On the other hand, look what is happening to Ukraine. It may sound weird, but I feel having nuclear bomb is the only guarantee that your country will not face full blown invasion.

 

[IWat]

They are going nowhere.

The solution is to build defences against them. The US is some of the way there, as we discussed in the military thread according to them it's 97% effective. Whether that's true or not, it needs to be 99%+ and with blanket geographical coverage before we can go head to head with a nuclear armed country.

Then you have an arms race though. As we are already starting to see with hypersonics etc.

 

[FootyGirl88]

 

[Smithy89]

Why? The only reason India and Pakistan have not gone into a complete war in recent times is nuclear bomb. Same for China vs India. On the other hand, look what is happening to Ukraine. It may sound weird, but I feel having nuclear bomb is the only guarantee that your country will not face full blown invasion.

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

 

[IWat]

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

An astonishingly uninformed post.

 

[harms]

It'll be to create a long-term brain drain in the country, similar to how the EU also want to poach educated Russians to reduce the education levels in the country itself. The worry would be they go back and help the Russian economy after education. I agree, that it is a step too far and the Russian people are being massively impacted for something that's not their fault though.

It’s the complete opposite — giving promising Russian students/academics an opportunity to study/work abroad would lead to brain drain way more effectively. Just like it did in the 90’s.

If all of those students (mostly top of the pile, as it’s not that easy to get a foreign scholarship) are forced back to Russia, you’re giving all of that potential back to Putin.

 

[VorZakone]

Australian military strategist gives his thoughts, says Ukraine awaits 3 big military decisions:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...s-will-have-to-make-soon-20220301-p5a0ly.html

 

[tomaldinho1]

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

A bit naive to think if everyone got rid of their nukes, no one would make them in secret though surely? We don’t live in a perfect world and I don’t see how it’s better to disarm unless you can 100% guarantee everyone stays nukes free which to me seems impossible.

 

[matt10000]

Why? The only reason India and Pakistan have not gone into a complete war in recent times is nuclear bomb. Same for China vs India. On the other hand, look what is happening to Ukraine. It may sound weird, but I feel having nuclear bomb is the only guarantee that your country will not face full blown invasion.

I am pretty sure that without nuclear weapons the West would have been involved in a major war at some point over the last 70 years

 

[RoyH1]

You mean Sweden? Norway were a founding member.

I think Putin has hugely miscalculated the after effects of this. He's likely to get another one or two Nato members on his doorstep, made China realise he's not a reliable partner, and created a fourth military superpower in a united EU.

Agree. If Finland/Sweden join Nato, almost nothing Putin gains in the Ukraine could be worth the war for him. I wonder how the German rearmament announcement was received in Russian political circles. With he size of their economy and industrial capability, that's a massive boost to NATO and an eventual EU force.

 

[Revan]

How does that work in reality though? Everyone disarms, some are put under the control of UN. North Korea or whoever decides to screw it and develop them again. Countries go to the UN with the view of stopping them via the nukes under their control. China vetos as an ally of NK. What do you do then?

I don't think there is any willingness for that to happen anyway.

Russia and the US downgrading to just a few hundred nukes should be the target though. They can still kill a few hundred millions, probably a billion with them, but no need to try to kill almost everyone. China realizes that which is why they have not gone crazy and have stopped building more. Same for France and the UK.

 

[harms]

I know that UK private schools have together agreed not to take money from Russians. I'm not sure what it means for the kids but there are a lot of very wealthy Russians with kids in places like Eton and Harrow.

Oh, it’s a different point. Wealthy kids that have their parents pay for Eton & the likes are, mostly, children of Putin’s elite. This is absolutely justified (well, almost as there’s this children not being responsible for the actions of his parent ethical conundrum… but it’s their parent’s money).

I’m talking about genuine student scholarships that you have to work for to get one. They’re cancelling them all over Europe.

 

[Smithy89]

An astonishingly uninformed post.

They're cowardly, it's just my opinion.

 

[Dans]

Russia has said for years that it wont allow Ukraine to become a Nato country. Thats the whole reason for the war. If it remained a neutral state then this war would not have happened. On one hand its a democracy and they should damn well be able to choose if they want to be Nato or not. On the other hand if they just let it be and remained a neutral state they wouldn't have been flattened by Russia. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont. They cant and will not back down now. The endgame is Russia neutralizes Ukraine. They make it impossible for it to become Nato and at the same time sets up president that any of the other countries cant as well - Latvia, Estonia, Finland and yes even Belarus (they could elect a West leaning politician in the future). They have already achieved this objective no matter what happens in Ukraine. I cannot see any of those countries joining Nato. If they do they risk the same treatment as Ukraine. Maybe Finland would get away with it.

The Wests endgame is to demonize Russia. This will make it so all these countries dont lean towards Russia like Belarus has. Russia could even be influencing countries like Czech, Poland etc and trying to elect pro Russian governments. Its the game that has been played since the second world war. Also they have legitimate reasons to fk up the Russian economy and turn the world against them.

You really think so? He just crushed the demos last year. Not likely to be any democratic elections there any time soon.

 

[Sarni]

Australian military strategist gives his thoughts, says Ukraine awaits 3 big military decisions:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...s-will-have-to-make-soon-20220301-p5a0ly.html

All valid points I think. Russia is bound to take over Eastern Ukraine by force quite soon and it is essential that Ukraine keep enough resources out West to regroup and try to take it back. I think we are close to entering a point where the war slows down and instead of constant fire we are going to see slower developments that will take weeks/months to form. Inevitably that will also cause West public opinion to shift their attention to elsewhere. It will be a long war.

 

[Interval]

I find it hilarious that Putin prepared for this for 3-4 years. He wanted the world to see the majestic Russian forces and power it still wields. He wanted to strike fear.

what on earth went on during the preps? How could logistics be this badly fecked in the first week? Did they play candy crush during military exercises? Did they assume they’ll drive into Kiev and there’s no need for plan B?

Embarrassing his nation for his ego.

I want to see the cognitive dissonance in his rationalisations.

fecking dickwad.

 

[africanspur]

Oh, it’s a different point. Wealthy kids that have their parents pay for Eton & the likes are, mostly, children of Putin’s elite. This is absolutely justified (well, almost as there’s this children not being responsible for the actions of his parent ethical conundrum… but it’s their parent’s money).

I’m talking about genuine student scholarships that you have to work for to get one. They’re cancelling them all over Europe.

That for me is a really really shitty thing to do.

 

[Danny1982]

FAO @Danny1982

Expected, seeing European countries already taken that stance. Similar to banning Russian media in Europe, expect Russia to ban Western media too in the coming days.

 

[harms]

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

Why? The only reason India and Pakistan have not gone into a complete war in recent times is nuclear bomb. Same for China vs India. On the other hand, look what is happening to Ukraine. It may sound weird, but I feel having nuclear bomb is the only guarantee that your country will not face full blown invasion.

It’s a bit of a catch-22. Nuclear bombs are a horrible invention that introduced a consistent threat of an imminent apocalypse and yet it’s the only thing that’s stopping it.

 

[IWat]

They're cowardly, it's just my opinion.

Fair enough, respect that. But they're probably the reason you've not had to be drafted so far in your life.

 

[Sarni]

I find it hilarious that Putin prepared for this for 3-4 years. He wanted the world to see the majestic Russian forces and power it still wields. He wanted to strike fear.

what on earth went on during the preps? How could logistics be this badly fecked in the first week? Did they play candy crush during military exercises? Did they assume they’ll drive into Kiev and there’s no need for plan B?

Embarrassing his nation for his ego.

I want to see the cognitive dissonance in his rationalisations.

fecking dickwad.

I honestly think their expectation was to be welcomed by Ukrainians and that there would be a significant division among Ukrainian people, which would basically make their task much easier.

 

[matt10000]

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

If your enemy has them then you also need them.

If you arm yourself with a knife and your neighbour points a machine gun at you, you are at their mercy.

If you have a machine gun too that you point back then assuming you have an early warning system to warn you as he/she starts to pull trigger, then you are both fecked.

 

[sullydnl]

I will just replay with one of his quotes:
Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain - Putin

You don't need to want to Soviet Union back to long for a Soviet empire. Again, something Putin's recent speeches have made clear, as he harkened back to imperial Russia repeatedly while actively criticising nearly every leader of the Soviet Union.