Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

30 Nukes are enough to destroy all the people in this planet.
of course not.

In fact, it is close to virtually certain that even detonating all the nukes that exist right now (13-14k) won't destroy all the people in the planet. Some will survive.

It gets trickier if states start developing salted nuclear weapons (with cobalt). In that case, probably the entire life is toast (similar to Dr. Strangelove).
 
Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.
Without Ukraine handing them over, this invasion never happens.
 
Oh, it’s a different point. Wealthy kids that have their parents pay for Eton & the likes are, mostly, children of Putin’s elite. This is absolutely justified (well, almost as there’s this children not being responsible for the actions of his parent ethical conundrum… but it’s their parent’s money).

I’m talking about genuine student scholarships that you have to work for to get one. They’re cancelling them all over Europe.

It's probably not done centrally though?! Maybe just a lot of institutions that want to pause their cooperation with the Russian side or they think they'd rather spend the money on Ukraine directly.
 
That's what worries me. I don't think for a minute that Putin will actually use his. He is a tyrant who has made a big mistake with Ukraine but he's not a lunatic. If a genuine loose cannon like Kim Jong Un gets his hands on them though?

He's a puppet of China and as far as I konw, China has absolutely zero interest in anybody nuking anybody. That's the beauty of globalisation: In an interconnected world, you can't hurt somebody seriously without hurting yourself as well.
 
of course not.

In fact, it is close to virtually certain that even detonating all the nukes that exist right now (13-14k) won't destroy all the people in the planet. Some will survive.

It gets trickier if states start developing salted nuclear weapons (with cobalt). In that case, probably the entire life is toast (similar to Dr. Strangelove).

I had to check the numbers, 528 have been detonated above ground and 1,528 under during the period testing was allowed + NK etc since.
 


Even pretty outdated plants are designed to be able to take impacts. I know the more modern ones in the UK are designed to be able to withstand a direct hit by an airliner and will gracefully shutdown if such an impact or anything close is registered on sensors.

To cause a meltdown, they will need to take intentional actions which would be an act of war on not just Ukraine considering the implications.
 
That's what worries me. I don't think for a minute that Putin will actually use his. He is a tyrant who has made a big mistake with Ukraine but he's not a lunatic. If a genuine loose cannon like Kim Jong Un gets his hands on them though?
He has his hands on them already.
 
I hate to break it, but North Korea already have nuclear warheads and they now seem to have the delivery system. He won't use them though unless he really does want to meet the grave.

Fortunately nothing that is yet plentiful or reliable enough.
 
of course not.

In fact, it is close to virtually certain that even detonating all the nukes that exist right now (13-14k) won't destroy all the people in the planet. Some will survive.

It gets trickier if states start developing salted nuclear weapons (with cobalt). In that case, probably the entire life is toast (similar to Dr. Strangelove).

What about the radiation? I have never seriously considered this, but wouldn't detonating ie 1000 nukes effectively end life via radiation? The same way as the initial asteroid strike killed some of the dinosaurs and the consequences of the ensuing cloud killed what was left of them?
 
Latvia and Estonia are already part of NATO, and Finland are probably joining. I don't know how you expect your opinion on the "whole reason for the war" seriously when you don't even know that the Baltic countries are in NATO. It's pretty fundamental to the conflict.

Also, how could Belarus act a West leaning politician when they aren't a democracy? If they were a democracy they wouldn't be helping Russia invade Ukraine.
Yes thanks I stand corrected. It was Sweden and Finland that Russia threatened. Its still a battle between Russian and Western democracy. Belarus cant elect a West leaning politician but they can protest and try and oust the current administration. Just like Czech did. Im not a historian or political expert but as I work in Czech I see the influence still of the Russian government and the battle between Russian and West democracies and the history of the influences of both sides. Russia cant all out attack these countries but they can try and destabilize them politically and vice versa in the case of Belarus.
 
They might have. That's the entire point of nukes, don't attack me or I use them.
Putin is the type that would sacrifice a city of two and then retaliate by sending them into oblivion.

If Ukraine used them the counter strike would end them as a nation after 5 minutes. Using them first will free Putin to strike back..
 
Even pretty outdated plants are designed to be able to take impacts. I know the more modern ones in the UK are designed to be able to withstand a direct hit by an airliner and will gracefully shutdown if such an impact or anything close is registered on sensors.

To cause a meltdown, they will need to take intentional actions which would be an act of war on not just Ukraine considering the implications.
12 of the 15 reactors were connected to the grid pre 1990 - so i wouldnt be too confident they align with the more modern standards
 
Russia must thinks about soft powers too. At the moment, I only see hard powers from the aggressive Putin. Right now, the best way he can do is to add more powers in negotiation. If Russia soldiers retreat, you know what happen.

The reasons he can't conquer Ukraine

1. Russian economy is destroyed in a lot of ways from many sources and countries.
2.Ukraine is fecking unity.
3.Ukraine has a lot of supports from a lot of western countries especially in weapons.
4.He can't end in short terms due to Kyiv's landscapes, if he wants to win in Kyiv, he must seize both entire and exit and he couldn't do it.
5. I'm not even sure, he will have enough money to retains military operations in 3-4 months.
 
That's what worries me. I don't think for a minute that Putin will actually use his. He is a tyrant who has made a big mistake with Ukraine but he's not a lunatic. If a genuine loose cannon like Kim Jong Un gets his hands on them though?

Thing is, I actually don't think Kim Jong Un is even that irrational. If anything he's utterly predictable - grab the world's attention, test a bomb, get some sort of concession/attention or whatever, calm down aaaand repeat.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a clear example as to how difficult it is to successfully and cleanly move into a country without the very best planning, training and experience. NK would be so fecked if they attempted anything (plus anything less than full blessing from China would mean they'd probably get invaded by China, looking at their reaction to Putin's war). NK are far less likely to nuke anyone than Russia.
 
Maps


Base on only Kyiv's landscape, it's very tough to occupy from Russia.
 
Russia has said for years that it wont allow Ukraine to become a Nato country. Thats the whole reason for the war. The endgame is Russia neutralizes Ukraine. They make it impossible for it to become Nato and at the same time sets up president that any of the other countries cant as well - Latvia, Estonia, Finland and yes even Belarus (they could elect a West leaning politician in the future). They have already achieved this objective no matter what happens in Ukraine. I cannot see any of those countries joining Nato. If they do they risk the same treatment as Ukraine. Maybe Finland would get away with it.

The Wests endgame is to demonize Russia. This will make it so all these countries dont lean towards Russia like Belarus has. Russia could even be influencing countries like Czech, Poland etc and trying to elect pro Russian governments. Its the game that has been played since the second world war. Also they have legitimate reasons to fk up the Russian economy and turn the world against them.

So true. Before you know it the Americans across the pond will also want to join NATO.
 
What about the radiation? I have never seriously considered this, but wouldn't detonating ie 1000 nukes effectively end life via radiation? The same way as the initial asteroid strike killed some of the dinosaurs and the consequences of the ensuing cloud killed what was left of them?

I'm no expert but I've seen a documentary video on YouTube a year ago or so. Exploding all nukes that currently exist would make earth hostile and inhabitable as far as the authors are concerned. It came across as if that was commonly agreed on. Not sure where the critical point was but it was surrly much higher than 30 nukes. 1000 is a different question.



We’re all going to fecking die!!


At this point it is very obvious what they are trying to do, IMO. Russia sees democracies as weak because the leadership depends on the population which is quite moody and easy to manipulate in their eyes. So they publicly use phrases like WW3 and nukes to freak us out and increase the pressure on our political leaders who aren't that easy to intimidate.
 
12 of the 15 reactors were connected to the grid pre 1990 - so i wouldnt be too confident they align with the more modern standards

I've just had a quick look at Zaporizhzhia. That's using WWER. So primary and secondary water-based cooling circuits with vessel walls and containment building wall that are thick steel and concrete (which Chernobyl does/did not have)

In those reactors, the water is actually the moderator, so if you lose both the primary and secondary cooling circuits you have a negative void coefficient where without water, the reaction slows.

But that was commissioned in the 90s, I'll find the time to read more about their older ones.

EDIT: They're all using WWER.
 
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