Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

oh I do but they’ve had to get involved anyway so would it have made a difference if they’d done it sooner?

Apart from the SWIFT system most European countries were in on the sanctions straight away as I recall. I don't see how sanction earlier would have made a big difference here.
 
The region has been conflict ridden since before the US even existed. At the very least since the Ottomans started carving territories up.

I'm not sure I really like this approach to be honest.

The entire world has been conflict ridden for ever? Europe was probably one of the most violent continents and as they spread out, started dragging the rest of the world into their local conflicts as well.

The borders there, so precise (and only recently broken down thankfully due to the EU), were painstakingly created after centuries of war to reflect partly the reality on the ground, unlike the borders in the ME, which have been drawn without any real input from the locals and without thought as to the demographics.

Arguably, that constant violence was only stopped after the 2 most brutal wars in history until that point, as well as the decision to ethnically cleanse Germans from across Europe and push them back into one country.
 
What time is the State of the Union? And can we expect the POTUS to announce some further involvement but the US, possibly an opening to a partial no fly zone over the west of Ukraine?
 
Yeah you will be gone quickly.
Actually, the fireball likely won't hit me. So I guess there is some chance of surviving.

I guess I am going buying some cans and some water, and if the worst happens, go in the basement for a couple of weeks.
 
To be fair it'd be quite idiotic from them to do all these posturing and then not even be able to hit their no. 1 enemy.

I agree. It would almost be pointless for them to even have nukes if they "couldn't reach" their #1 adversary, which would negate MAD and make them entirely vulnerable.
 
What time is the State of the Union? And can we expect the POTUS to announce some further involvement but the US, possibly an opening to a partial no fly zone over the west of Ukraine?

9pm EST. Don't hold your breath on any new policy.
 
Just conjecture from me but I reckon it would be the UK first. He's especially pissed off with us at the moment and blamed our foreign secretary when he raised his nuclear alert level.

I think he sees Britain as America's main partner and would love to punish us.

Just hunch though, no science to anything I'm saying.

I honestly still think nuke talk is ridiculous but if it did come to that, they're not going to just nuke one country in isolation like that.
 
You cant trap someone in his words, who has no honesty or good faith in him. Putin would just come up with new lies. And by this point I doubt that anyone with access to the internet still genuinely believes that this is a surgical operation.
He’s been talking absolute shite for decades. Russians are either used to it or won’t challenge (doubt I would to be fair).

Other countries have known he’s been talking shite for decades and know he’s irrational/delusional.

Probably true. Either way, I don’t think shooting down a few planes = nuclear war. Saying “it’s a declaration of war by NATO” - nah, same way that Vlad claimed that his current attack is not an invasion, but a “special operation”. It works both ways. Need to toughen up and start fighting fire with fire.

Putin isn’t going to destroy the world over a few shot down aircraft. Nobody is threatening Russia, nobody is attacking Russia, nobody has any intention of doing so. Defending Ukrainian airspace simply isn’t a cause for nukes, and that bluff needs to be called, in my view.
 
I don't buy the whole UK is safe from Russia talk that a lot of people here are saying. I'd say if it were to go tits up we're probably one of the first names on Putins list.

There's also this if anyone remembers:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/raf-ukraine-russia-war-b2006812.html

Could've been gauging RAF reaction time in case of war.

Oh we'd get destroyed. At that point, it would hardly matter. The rest of NATO would be getting the same treatment and the CO and XO onboard the Vanguard would be going through the authentication and verification procedure to launch back.
 
Ok, well the other option is for us to sit back and let Putin do whatever he wants whenever he mentions he has nukes.

He can't do whatever he wants. Russia is struck hard by the sanctions. The Ukraine resists the Russian advances so far for a number of reasons. Heroics by the Ukrainian people, military support (weaponry and intelligence) by the NATO but first and foremlst because Russian didn't want to use their most devastating firepower.

And that's because Putin is afraid from the resistance this may cause and of the reaction of his own population. It is already going downhill for him and Russia. We're witnessing are signs that the house of cards is falling apart. While Putin is in a race of time, the West can play the waiting game and hopefully witness how the system Putin tumbles.

Of course it is terrible what's happening to Ukraine but let's be clear, even the worst that can be expected absolutely pales in comparison to what a nuclear war would look like. And it would affect the whole world. I don't think that we want to risk this escalating when an aging, isolated and nostalgic dictator is already spiralling downwards and there's a chance that he's becoming paranoid and irrational.
 
To be fair it'd be quite idiotic from them to do all these posturing and then not even be able to hit their no. 1 enemy.
They were able to reach US with ICBMs since the end of the fifties. Add now the SLBMs and they should be able to throw a couple thousand nukes in the US.
 
I despise Bojo, but in fairness he has been crystal clear with what we can/can't/are going to do in his press conferences.
 
I honestly still think nuke talk is ridiculous but if it did come to that, they're not going to just nuke one country in isolation like that.
I agree. And even if they did nuke just 1 country it surely wouldn't be one of those that can actually retaliate in a meaningful way.

But Putin is just trying to scare us all into letting him do what he likes. This might become a disaster for him, or if he's successful he'll be isolated for the rest of his life. Both a lot better than being nuked into oblivion. People are acting as if we were the only ones with anything to lose.
 
Please let’s not be cryptic

Different countries in the West have been played from within by Putin’s monies and cronies… just see how pervasive is their network at all levels of Western life, from media to sports and, in the end, politics. Under the pretence it was trade and mutual relationships, they have substantially bought the UK out of the EU, massively helped get Trump in place and one inch from a coup last year, enrolled former EU head of state personalities like into their whitewashing businesses, blatantly funded firms and parties here in Italy. Can you see a pattern?
 
I'm not sure I really like this approach to be honest.

The entire world has been conflict ridden for ever? Europe was probably one of the most violent continents and as they spread out, started dragging the rest of the world into their local conflicts as well.

The borders there, so precise (and only recently broken down thankfully due to the EU), were painstakingly created after centuries of war to reflect partly the reality on the ground, unlike the borders in the ME, which have been drawn without any real input from the locals and without thought as to the demographics.

Arguably, that constant violence was only stopped after the 2 most brutal wars in history until that point, as well as the decision to ethnically cleanse Germans from across Europe and push them back into one country.

I don't disagree with any of that, my post was saying it's a little tiresome when every war in the Middle East is claimed to somehow be the fault of the West. It's a tribal region that doesn't suit national boundaries and never has from long before the US started getting involved.
 
So I have been trying to get people from border/any other place where they arrive for the last few days, and I was just in touch with someone who was looking for a drive for two Americans who have just arrived here and wanted a lift near the border so they can go to Lviv and join Ukrainian Forces. I didn't mind that as I would be going that direction anyway today or tomorrow but I just asked what their military experience is and it turned out they don't have any.

Do these people not realize they will be more burden than help? It's one thing to fight as a civilian in your own country, knowing the language, maybe knowing people around you. It's not Call of Duty, you won't be able to do anything there if you don't have any military training and you are just sentencing yourself to either death or lifelong PTSD.

Not taking them anywhere.
 
Where is that coming from? Pretty sure that is not true.

Might well be and I don't want to downplay the affects an escalation could have on the US. But it's simply not comparable to what Europe would have to go through which is why I'm hesitant to fully support the calls for "doing" more at the moment when that means sending NATO troops.
 
Ye, and I am within 3km of the center (Marienplatz), so probably dead immediately.

I used to be 2kms from Marienplatz. Now 25 kms away so will live 10 seconds or so longer than you. Woo hoo.
 
The reply ... not what she wanted but perhaps realistic (given consequences of such actions)


politicians really need to shut this idea down. No fly zone doesnt just mean shooting down planes, it also entails shooting down anti aircraft weapons, including those inside of russia. No fly zone is not a middle ground, Its going to war with Russia. Simple as that.
 
Well to the original post, it arguably goes back to the Iranian Revolution (the seeds for which were sown in 1953). As a result, Saddam opportunistically invaded Iran, with literally the entire world - USSR and US on the same side - backing Iraq. (Apart from Syria, who allowed Iranian planes to fly over its airspace to decimate Iraqi airfields on the border of Saudi Arabia - pay back for which came in the 2010s).

That turned into a quagmire after eight years of WW1 style tactics with modern weaponry. A million odd deaths and a broke Iraq later, Saddam now couldn't pay back the Arab states that had backed him. Saddam blamed Shiites and Kurds for siding with Iran, committed atrocities against them and that would have been all well and good but he decided to invade Kuwait to write off the debt he owed. Then it's the Gulf War with his very allies from 1980-88 firmly against him and Saddam is booted out of Kuwait. However, they make the decision of not toppling Saddam because of the worry of who would replace him. Saddam continues to gas the Kurds in revenge for helping the coalition, no one really minds in the West other than an odd air strike here and there (e.g. Clinton in 97, I think).

So between 1979 and 2003, you had the West (and Soviets) heavily arm Iraq from 1980-88. Then you had 35 countries, but mainly USA, intervene in 1990-1. Then shit loads of sanctions on Saddam. Then he's overthrown in 2003 and the country turns to chaos.

What's this got to do with Russia and Ukraine? Well, very little in the same way that previous right or wrong foreign policy of any of the "Great" powers in 1939 had to do with declaring war on Hitler. To your point around the quality of journalism - I partially agree, the statements that have been made regarding the victims are ridiculous and insensitive. However, Western cases for intervening in Iraq, Syria and Libya whilst horrifically criminal in the case of Iraq and deeply misguided in the latter two were done in countries where the leaders - without any impetus from the West - regularly committed war crimes and genocide on their own people. There's a reason why for all three the West at least went to the UN to get a resolution.

Something that is true - we have never seen in our lifetime a member of the UN Security Council unilaterally invade a democratic and free country. There is no hypocrisy in being absolutely shocked by what has happened and calling it what it is - an unprecedented modern military action.
Good Post. A lot of people seem to forget who backed and allied with those same 'tyrannists' to begin with. I wonder who funded and helped create the Taliban.
 
Just spoke to a Ukrainian colleague again. Really interesting to hear it directly from someone involved. She is in Kyiv, where it is now relatively quiet and safe after a few rough days.

An interesting thing she mentioned, which may be forgotten, is that so many Ukrainians have Russian relatives. She was, for example, no longer speaking to her aunt because she supported Putin and didn't believe any of the reports coming out of Ukraine about the war. It's fully messed up.
 
So I have been trying to get people from border/any other place where they arrive for the last few days, and I was just in touch with someone who was looking for a drive for two Americans who have just arrived here and wanted a lift near the border so they can go to Lviv and join Ukrainian Forces. I didn't mind that as I would be going that direction anyway today or tomorrow but I just asked what their military experience is and it turned out they don't have any.

Do these people not realize they will be more burden than help? It's one thing to fight as a civilian in your own country, knowing the language, maybe knowing people around you. It's not Call of Duty, you won't be able to do anything there if you don't have any military training and you are just sentencing yourself to either death or lifelong PTSD.

Not taking them anywhere.

Hats off to you for showing that much support.

Also you are totally right with that. Some seem to be crazed up war mongers that think this will be fun.
 
I used to be 2kms from Marienplatz. Now 25 kms away so will live 10 seconds or so longer than you. Woo hoo.
You are pretty safe 25 km out. Probably nothing will happen in your vicinity.
 
Probably true. Either way, I don’t think shooting down a few planes = nuclear war. Saying “it’s a declaration of war by NATO” - nah, same way that Vlad claimed that his current attack is not an invasion, but a “special operation”. It works both ways. Need to toughen up and start fighting fire with fire.

Putin isn’t going to destroy the world over a few shot down aircraft. Nobody is threatening Russia, nobody is attacking Russia, nobody has any intention of doing so. Defending Ukrainian airspace simply isn’t a cause for nukes, and that bluff needs to be called, in my view.
Also, He really doesn't seem to care about life of his soldiers so, not sure he'd risk nuclear wat over a few pilots.
 
Hats off to you for showing that much support.

Also you are totally right with that. Some seem to be crazed up war mongers that think this will be fun.
I bet most of these folks wouldn't even want to try and spend 3 days in Eastern Ukraine right now even without war going on. It is pretty rough terrain.
 

More on Russian logistical problems




One to keep an eye on. There's couple of russian transmitted recordings in the tweet thread.

was about to post this

I'm just logging on. Not sure if this has been shared here, yet.
Chilling perspective of bewildered Russian soldier.



The narrative of the Russia military as bumbling could simply be that Russia doesn’t want to kill civilians where possible and instead wants to hold Ukraine as peacefully as possible by using its least important and capable military assets - a bit like playing the youth players in a League Cup match, if you will.

I’m starting to feel like a lot of the immediate media from this invasion has essentially just been propaganda, albeit brilliantly coordinated propaganda. Much of it in unverifiable and also aimed at getting an emotional response, but there isn’t really much substance when you take a step back.

I think it’s been designed to try and force an uprising or coup in Russia while there’s a chance to spin such narrative, but it hasn’t (and won’t) worked - that’s why Putin is sat with that insufferable smirk across his face - they’ve planned EXACTLY for these sanctions, they’ll already know their response around it - it’s just that we don’t. They’re multiple steps ahead…

This is a well thought out, long game tactical move from Russia rather than the desperate actions of a weakened dictator imo.

Putin has infiltrated U.S elections, Brexit, funded up much of the far-right brain-washing across Europe and is now invading neighbouring countries while staring down the World.

The reality is that the developed World has been weakened by his meddling and actions over the last 10 years and he will emerge from this more powerful, not less.

The depressing truth is that for all our supposed sophistication, a little Orwellian thug and glorified hitman is probably the single most powerful individual person on Earth.

We should take a look at ourselves in the mirror as a species. If it wasn’t so depressing it’d be comical.
 
Where is that coming from? Pretty sure that is not true.

It's not. Their main land based missile has a range of over 10,000km. Even if that didn't exist, there are still the submarines that almost certainly spend their lives going up and down the American coastline.