I think it's more likely that Russia take Kyiv and then insurgency continues for years with US and NATO turning a blind eye than them intervening and risk nukes being used.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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That Olga creature is a right nasty piece of work. Yet more evidence that being a twisted scumbag also makes you hideous on the outside too.
Either way it's a very grim reality. Sadly I think your scenario is pretty realistic currently. We may get to a point where splitting Ukraine into East and West may be the least terrible outcome, though still absolutely awful.
Going by what's happening so far Russians seem to have very little interest in Lviv etc.
That's what Putin will be banking on. Establish the facts and, after a cooling off period, get back to business. The West has been way to complacent for a long time. We watched, when the Russians took Crimea and established proxies in Luhansk and Donetsk. We did not do much, when these proxies murdered hundreds of people on an aircraft. We protested a little, when Russian operatives committed murders in the hearts of London and Berlin. We let them influence our elections and referenda, establish state funded propaganda media outlets as well as armies of internet trolls. We let them buy off and corrupt our politicians. This has been going on for a long time, but we were asleep. Hopefully, Putin made too much noise this time. Everyone is awake now and, hopefully, we stay awake.
Yeah, it's tragic that one cnut can destroy so many lives like this.
Nice rant but I am not sure what you are trying to say. All my points are valid, Putin is a criminal to the world but above else, his people.
The problem with that is two things:
1. The Russian people will think it's directly aimed at them -- and not Putin. It will only harden their resolve.
2. Russian people are tough cnuts. They have no problem going through hardships -- even take pride in it like some macho dare and will draw on their historical past of suffering and then coming out ahead later.
My initial expectations was for them to take Ukraine and for the West to forget about it in not so long. However I think it may have got past the point of no return.
She is not actually wrong about the mayhem being caused by criminals with weapons. Subtle dig at Putin
?This is a realistic scenario indeed.
Yeah I think the ones living in smaller cities or out east/north may be like that. However you have a pretty big community in big cities working for international companies, going to Europe on holidays, having estate around Europe. They won't last long before unrest starts.
the second claim is just a cheap show by the hun. gov , really don't know why , but its not true , The Airfield in Papa is used for Nato transport
"Chaos , panic and mayhem caused by criminals with weapons."
She has no idea how right she is, just add "war criminals with weapons".
While I think that nukes now are an option, still think that they are by far the least likely (realistic) option.
How I think this goes, from most likely to least likely:
1) Kyiv is surrendered during this month, probably during this week, and then a process of demilitarization happens, with Ukraine slowly becoming a puppet Russian-controlled country. 50%
2) Total destruction of Ukraine, in a very lengthy war, not much unlike Lybia. 30%
3) Putin is ousted from his inner circle after something crazy goes on. 18%
4) Thermonuclear war. 2%
5) Russia loses and Putin orders withdrawal. 0%
Probabilities are not real probabilities, just me posting nonsense.
How I think this goes, from most likely to least likely:
1) Kyiv is surrendered during this month, probably during this week, and then a process of demilitarization happens, with Ukraine slowly becoming a puppet Russian-controlled country. 50%
2) Total destruction of Ukraine, in a very lengthy war, not much unlike Lybia. 30%
3) Putin is ousted from his inner circle after something crazy goes on. 18%
4) Thermonuclear war. 2%
5) Russia loses and Putin orders withdrawal. 0%
Probabilities are not real probabilities, just me posting nonsense.
I realised I knew little of Russias history of colonialism and history regarding expansion of state etc. And found this guy on twitter that have set up posts for everything systematically.
Interesting but terrible reading you could say. If anyone has the time and are interested, there is a lot of historical info to be read here (some posts in between is new posts but mostly historical info posts with links to wikipedia):
https://twitter.com/search?q=#RussianColonialism @maximeristavi&src=typed_query&f=top
Interesting but terrible reading you could say. If anyone has the time and are interested, there is a lot of historical info to be read here (some posts in between is new posts but mostly historical info posts with links to wikipedia):
https://twitter.com/search?q=#RussianColonialism @maximeristavi&src=typed_query&f=top
I'd probably agree with that.
Thing is, I always thought that chances of a nuclear war are infinitesimally small. Now, I just think that they are small.
Which is scary. But still think that most likely we will have a Grozny/Aleppo scenario. With it being in Europe, I think that there will be a ton of pressure from European people for Nato to do something. And NATO doing something might well be the end of the world as we know it. But then, I think NATO not doing anything is more likely than NATO risking a nuclear war.
The scary thing is that if Russia would invaded some NATO member, NATO would be forced to do something.
I don't feel comfortable at all with the rumors of Polish airports being used by Ukrainian air force to fly our planes into warzone. This is basically very close to us joining the war. I reckon it will be dismissed by our Defense forces...
I think the EU won't accept a solution (or shouldn't) where at least part of Ukraine is not independent, so people can stay.
Otherwise, you could easily see 20m people heading to Europe.
Otherwise, you could easily see 20m people heading to Europe.
I do not fully understand why European Union is being so open about this. Just give them the planes without saying that we are giving them the planes.
I reckon that would be fine by Russia, Putin himself does not consider Western Ukraine to be Russian.
It is Ukrainians saying that, EU have not said anything I think. Ukrainian Defense said we were giving them all our MIG-29 planes and were allowing them to be flown out of Polish airports. I do not like that one bit considering the one closest to Ukrainian border is literally 8 km from my house.
I think EU needs to quickly squash these rumours. It's not helpful.
I thought this was what he was going for at the beginning but now....
One thing is for sure though, unless Putin withdraws, sanctions should stay.
Is the stock market opening today?
Our forces giving up half of our combat planes and openly letting them operate out of Poland is just recipe for disaster. We are going to be left with almost no combat planes. Maybe I am overreacting but this sounds just dumb.
Mentioned this before. By all means send an army but don't broadcast it on TV.
Otherwise, you might as well join the war as far as Putin is concerned.
I think closed til the 5th now
Fox News is child’s play compared to this.
Don't know if it's been posted, but this is an interesting, sobering interview with Fiona Hill. You might remember her testimony in the Trump impeachment inquiry. She was the Senior Director for Europe and Russia of the National Security Council and who's made an entire career out of analysing and spying on Russians. She's definitely something of a hawk.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
Where are most of the Ukrainian natural resources like gas, uranium etc? Western or the eastern side of Ukraine?
This is no longer in the consideration phase - they have just publicly announced that they are suspending all container shipments to and from Russia. Couldn't find an updated news story in English though.
Not sure how big a share of Russia's import and export that is, but it must be a huge blow for their economy. Most likely other shipping companies will follow suit.
I don't think Putin has any idea what he has actually done. More and more sanctions from governments and companies will follow. The economy will be in ruins very shortly.
Depends on which 'borders' Putin wants to redraw. It could be to reclaim the old Soviet states, its could be looking back to the early 1900's, or even further back to the 1700's. I do think there's going to be a massive issue if Finland is accepted into NATO. At worst he could be seeking a New World Order and global domination.
That Fiona Hill interview..
What about a partial withdrawal - say to the donbass region only.... or withdrawing to crimea
would that get a partial removal of sanctions?
Its a really difficult line to draw as no removal = no insentive
Any withdrawal is basically saying something along the lines of its kinda ok to take parts ok ukraine but not other parts
Perhaps recognition of Crimea will be enough for him - but perhaps thats still a red line for ukraine
Perhaps he wants everything east of the river? - which I would have thought is for sure too much for Ukraine to concede?
Sadly I think now the probability is that he simply pounds civilian populations with lots of conventional artillery looking to force Ukraine into a quick settlement and im not convinced that will be enough to bring nato into the conflict - horrible prospect
I think, the EU is taking a calculated, but pretty dangerous risk in a similar way how Putin tried to take a risk with banking on EU and NATO not getting involved.
They're trying to call his bluff now, for example, if he doesn't attack Poland for helping Ukraine, we can assume that he has no interest in escalating this any further towards a World War - if he does attack, well, he would have done it anyway, sooner or later.
Think the EU themselves were talking about Jets, just not in detail
How convenient, it's mostly in the East.