Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[IWat]

Re: Crimea.

I swear if Brexit Britain were to stage a coup in the Republic of Ireland and were then to claim possession of the territory pointing to A) the result of a sham referendum, B) mother tongue demographics of the population, and C) historical ownership of the territory, some would go along with it.

That is exactly what happened in Crimea.

I think there is a balance here of reality vs ideal. The regular Ukrainian army runs the risk of dwindling and more and more of the heavy lifting is going to need to happen via reserves or civilians. They are not going to hold the Russian army off nearly as well.

It could be perhaps that Ukraine is capable of holding the line for months, in which case they should hold out for the best terms. If they're going to collapse at some point in the next few weeks, then Russia is going to have more and more leverage over time as the Ukrainian position deteriorates.

 

[Oly Francis]

Yes, this was brought to light yesterday.

Sorry for the repost, i might have missed it.

 

[Carolina Red]

So Finland's PM announced they will send weapons too? Bold move considering they're not a NATO-member as of this moment.

They took on the full might of the Soviet Union before. I doubt they're afraid of this version of Russia they're watching in Ukraine.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[GodShaveTheQueen]

Be great if they went a step ahead and banned Russian players from competing in any leagues as well. IOC did recommend banning athletes as well and not just teams.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Pintu]

So Finland's PM announced they will send weapons too? Bold move considering they're not a NATO-member as of this moment.

There is a misconception regarding non-NATO membership. Sweden and Finland are not neutral. We are not members of NATO but we are allied with NATO and have always been.

 

[Frosty]

Can you stop posting his tweets please, I am getting worried at how much I am agreeing with him and I am starting to question who I am...

 

[Oly Francis]

I have a very hard time seeing where we go from here. I mean of course a siege is terrible, but what about Putin's other military options? Urban warfare and Kyiv bombing wouldn't be any better.

At least it buys the parties involved some time to figure out where to go and to see the impact of the sanctions.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Not gonna happen.

Unless Ukraine surrenders or gives concessions, I fear this will be a meat grinder for months, and maybe years if an insurgency mounts. Russia is not backing down I'm afraid.

We desperately need Putin to be overthrown by his circle.

I think Putin could very well be ousted

Russia will go to shit and its his fault

Why the feck would the inner circle accept that!
He'll get a knife in the back its not 1935

 

[gorky_utd]

biggest issue here is the potential oil and gas reserves in Donbas and Crimea. Nobody is going to try and march an army into Russia, nato isnt going to fire rockets after russia, and i honestly dont think he really cares about the fact that Ukraine used to be part of Russian federation(at least not enough to invade it) , to me its all about the benjamins and securing Russia as the dominant gas station for Europe so it can use that as its way to stay relevant.

It certainly looks like the plan from this video. Get yourself a nice buffer from NATO as well as take all the oil and gas reserves from Ukraine. All the other talks are just big BS.

 

[Walrus]

One has to wonder if the Oligarchs secretly approached the US/EU and offered to 'get rid' of Putin (or better, hand him over) in return for the sanctions being lifted. Would you go for it?

 

[Raoul]

I have a very hard time seeing where we go from here. I mean of course a siege is terrible, but what about Putin's other military options? Urban warfare and Kyiv bombing wouldn't be any better.

At least it buys the parties involved some time to figure out where to go and to see the impact of the sanctions.

I don't think the world is going to stand by while 2.5m people are starved to death. Some sort of action will be taken imo.

 

[calodo2003]

Did not realise it had.
And having lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis, that felt much more serious.
Just my perception.

Amazing that the CMC wasn’t the closest to midnight we’ve been.

 

[tomaldinho1]

The worry is how much normal Russian people are going to feel this massive economical fallout. Crazy that it seems one human being stands in the way of peace for millions, if any good comes from this it’s hopefully that Russia never gives one person such extreme power (and pay the small price of having their own version of EU countries messed up politics with all its inefficiencies and inadequacies).

 

[Raoul]

Can you stop posting his tweets please, I am getting worried at how much I am agreeing with him and I am starting to question who I am...

I know it is strange agreeing with Little Marco isn't it.

 

[Schmiznurf]

One has to wonder if the Oligarchs secretly approached the US/EU and offered to 'get rid' of Putin (or better, hand him over) in return for the sanctions being lifted. Would you go for it?

On the condition Putin is executed, the top leaders completely replaced and they begin nuclear disarmament.

 

[calodo2003]

Lots of clips about Ukrainians preparing molotovs. Whole rows and stacks of them.

Front page of today‘s NYT was civilians bringing full chests of empty bottles to town centers so they could be used for Molotovs.

 

[Sky1981]

One has to wonder if the Oligarchs secretly approached the US/EU and offered to 'get rid' of Putin (or better, hand him over) in return for the sanctions being lifted. Would you go for it?

Wouldn't trust the west. You'll end up leaked viw twitter anr probabaly got done by putin.

 

[calodo2003]

I know it is strange agreeing with Little Marco isn't it.

Spooky.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Kyiv Airlift?

 

[esmufc07]

War is brutal

 

[Fearless]

Amazing that the CMC wasn’t the closest to midnight we’ve been.

From the BBC:

When it was created in 1947, the clock's hand stood at seven minutes to midnight. Since then it has changed more than 20 times, ranging from two minutes to midnight to 17 minutes before midnight in 1991.
But during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis - considered by many analysts to be the closest the Cold War face-off between the US and the USSR came to escalating into a nuclear war - the Doomsday Clock stood still at seven minutes to midnight.
The BAS says: "The answers to this seeming anomaly are that the Doomsday Clock captures trends and takes into account the capacity of leaders and societies to respond to crises with reasoned actions to prevent nuclear holocaust.
"The Cuban Missile Crisis, for all its potential and ultimate destruction, only lasted a few weeks; however, the lessons were quickly apparent when the United States and the Soviet Union installed the first hotline between the two capitals to improve communications, and, of course, negotiated the 1963 test ban treaty, ending all atmospheric nuclear testing."
In fact, the Doomsday Clock was moved back to 12 minutes to midnight in 1963.

 

[stefan92]

There is a misconception regarding non-NATO membership. Sweden and Finland are not neutral. We are not members of NATO but we are allied with NATO and have always been.

Especially as they are members of the EU and the EU treaties also make it mandatory for its members to support each other in case of war. It's even more clear than the NATO treaty in that regard.

Whoever goes to war against a single member state will have to face the full EU.

 

[calodo2003]

War is brutal

Christ.

 

[harms]

Well it's a military group led by a Nazi with members carrying copies of My Kampf on their tablets. So if it's not a neonazi group, it's at least a group with many nazis.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/8iaz6xit26/the-lost-tablet-and-the-secret-documents

I think it's a better label, yeah, as they're not really defined by this ideology — they're paid guns for Putin's regime. And don't forget war criminals — that's the most important thing about them.

 

[TMDaines]

From what I've read, Ukraine told foreign students to leave Ukraine weeks ago. There are a lot of Indian students stuck there too. Now that they're having to escort people out of danger areas they're prioritizing Ukrainians which kind of makes sense. Unless they're prioritizing white Ukrainians over black Ukrainians, but I don't think that's happening here
[/]
Whilst I don’t doubt for a second that many are experiencing racism and prejudice, a lot of these videos appear to be in bad faith. War will after all bring out the worst of people – as well as the best. Many of the videos, however, claim to depict one thing, but show something else far more ambiguous.

Ultimately, it has to be fully expected that police and border guards will be prioritising people based on their passport, and then gender and age. Foreign student or working age men who have the relative luxury of still leaving the country will be of the lowest priority. That’s not racism, unless people are being prioritised based on race or skin colour.

 

[Raoul]

War is brutal

Tragic. Most of Putin's conscripts seem very young.

 

[calodo2003]

From the BBC:

When it was created in 1947, the clock's hand stood at seven minutes to midnight. Since then it has changed more than 20 times, ranging from two minutes to midnight to 17 minutes before midnight in 1991.
But during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis - considered by many analysts to be the closest the Cold War face-off between the US and the USSR came to escalating into a nuclear war - the Doomsday Clock stood still at seven minutes to midnight.
The BAS says: "The answers to this seeming anomaly are that the Doomsday Clock captures trends and takes into account the capacity of leaders and societies to respond to crises with reasoned actions to prevent nuclear holocaust.
"The Cuban Missile Crisis, for all its potential and ultimate destruction, only lasted a few weeks; however, the lessons were quickly apparent when the United States and the Soviet Union installed the first hotline between the two capitals to improve communications, and, of course, negotiated the 1963 test ban treaty, ending all atmospheric nuclear testing."
In fact, the Doomsday Clock was moved back to 12 minutes to midnight in 1963.

Yep.

 

[TMDaines]

Kyiv Airlift?

What?

 

[LARulz]

Be great if they went a step ahead and banned Russian players from competing in any leagues as well. IOC did recommend banning athletes as well and not just teams.

I would be against that to be honest - teams and stuff is fine but banning players who are probably against it when they are playing in the UK or France etc. I wouldn't like. Also cannot imagine any of those clubs would be for it either

 

[TheReligion]

Especially as they are members of the EU and the EU treaties also make it mandatory for its members to support each other in case of war. It's even more clear than the NATO treaty in that regard.

Whoever goes to war against a single member state will have to face the full EU.

There’s only France in the EU with a nuclear deterrent. That’s why NATO is where the strength is (adds UK and the US).

The EU as a separate entity isn’t that powerful in a military sense.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

What?

Probably infeasible, but basically, dropping supplies from the air as in the Berlin Airlift

 

[Oly Francis]

There’s only France in the EU with a nuclear deterrent. That’s why NATO is where the strength is (adds UK and the US).

The EU as a separate entity isn’t that powerful in a military sense.

I guess a 100b investment by germany might shift things a bit in the next few years.

 

[nimic]

Tragic. Most of Putin's conscripts seem very young.

Most soldiers are young, always have been. Are these conscripts, or professional soldiers?

 

[Winrar]

Putin clearly looks fidgety and even embattled. Haven't seen him like this.

This hasn't been as easy for him as he thought it would be.

 

[Dante]

There's no way this will end with a total victory for either side. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will give in to all of the other's demands.

The only way out of this is to give Putin a face-saving option that he can repackage as a win - but one that's also mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the West.

Expecting Putin to withdraw forces and admit defeat is unrealistic because he has nothing left to lose right now. And expecting Ukraine to willingly end ambitions of joining the ranks of western Europe are also unrealistic because too much water has passed under the bridge.

The best solution to this mess is for Ukraine's EU application to be rejected, but with promises of non-military trade deals and greater western economic investment. That way, both leaders can have a symbolic victory (although Ukraine's will be much more concrete).

Given that Ukraine seems unlikely to lose at this stage of the war, some kind of pretence to a two-way agreement is the only way to prevent Putin using nukes. As distasteful as it might be to make him look good on some level, saving lives should be the priority.

It wouldn't surprise me if Zelenskyy wrote that application precisely because he knew it would get rejected. It's not like Ukraine meet all of the requirements for EU membership anyway.

 

[Yagami]

Why can't people (Putin) learn from history that this isn't the way

 

[Dante]

Putin clearly looks fidgety and even embattled. Haven't seen him like this.

This hasn't been as easy for him as he thought it would be.

Putin's a cornered and wounded animal, with nukes for teeth and thermobaric missiles for claws.

He's in flight or fight mode. We need to back off a bit and give him an escape route. Because he's never going to back down from his snarling rhetoric otherwise.

 

[Siorac]

So Finland's PM announced they will send weapons too? Bold move considering they're not a NATO-member as of this moment.

Let's face it: if Finland ever asks to join NATO, the application process will take about ten minutes. Same goes for Sweden.

Exactly. Ukraine giving Donbas and Crimea (as in, a Security Council resolution voting it), making a deal with Russia and US/NATO that guarantees their defense (similar to Budapest one) in exchange for their military neutrality, with a clear short path to EU, IMO is the least painful solution.

Not what Ukraine wants, but they get a very good deal considering the current situation, and it gives Putler the ability to sell it home as 'we prevented genocide in Donbas, extended Russia's territory and we will be forever safe with Ukraine never joining NATO).

My question is: Russia and Putin in particular have shown wanton disregard for such irrelevant details as international treaties or international law so could there be any guarantees of them holding up their end of any prospective deal?