US and UK are guaranteed to intervene at some stage. I have no doubt that lots of preparation is going on behind the scenes right now. Russia's economy is dead, and it will be difficult to finance this war for a long period of time. Lukashenko is next. Belarussian economy will rest in peace very soon too.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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EU application without referendum and Ukraine's democracy being weak to put it mildly? What could possibly go wrong? We'll have another Hungary or Poland in our hands, just great.
I think it will be very hard for people to accept that after the international treaties which guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty in the 1990s were violated by Russia. You will inevitably run into people who ask why they should trust Russia to comply with a new international treaty when they ignored the last one.
I just cannot see how any deal giving up Ukrainian territory is not spun as rewarding Putin for his violations of international law.
Perhaps one blessing of Brexit is that we can't now block it as I'm sure patel would be firmly against it
The most we will do will be funnel endless supplies of intelligence and arms. It will be like the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
They won't join the EU anytime soon, it's purely symbolic and doesn't mean anything substantial.
I understand your point and do not want to reward the aggressor either but I don’t think an absolute victory is feasible here. In my scenario Ukraine has definitively swung to the West via EU accession and Russia has to face the full force of NATO if it tries any further encroachments. That’s really the key thing here - no one wants Ukraine as a NATO member launchpad from which to invade Russia. As for Crimea, I don’t think any Russian leader can concede and remain in power.
This group is being asked to stay where they are at the time of the video, unless you have a translation of what's being said? Framing this as Ukraine refusing the key Africans leave the country is propaganda likely of Russian origin, don't you think?
When you say rewarding Putin do you mean his ego because honestly who gives a feck what Putin thinks. The only concern should be would it bolster his support and/or encourage him to do this again but right now it doesn't seem like either would be true, he's embarrassed himself and NATO will now step in to ensure he cant' take any further action.
Sweden is going to send/have sent weapons as well and we're in the same boat.
Some Russian minister warned us a couple of days ago that they would have to take action if we and/or Finland were to consider joining NATO.
I could see Crimea potentially being used. But I just cannot see Ukraine agreeing to restrictions in what military organisations they do or don't join on the back of an invasion. I guess if they become a NATO member in all but name in regards to protection, that might satisfy them.
I'm of the same mind, I don't know what middle ground there is that ultimately is going to be acceptable to both sides.
Not gonna happen.
Unless Ukraine surrenders or gives concessions, I fear this will be a meat grinder for months, and maybe years if an insurgency mounts. Russia is not backing down I'm afraid.
We desperately need Putin to be overthrown by his circle.
I fully agree regarding the reliability of Putin’s word. The question is how do we get to deal with a less unpredictable leader (who will still be a bastard to some degree by the way - it’s Russia after all) without prolonging Ukraine’s current suffering beyond endurance. I don’t know the answer.
I saw this first on Aljazeera. If you scroll back ca 17/20 mn on this youtube feed you'll see the woman being interviewed after the incident. She is still stuck in Lviv.
Specifically I think that those concessions would be opposed by NATO, as they would set a precedent, as well as Ukraine. The US may be concerned at the message it sends to China too in relation to Taiwan. I don't see diplomacy working without both sides give ground, and I just am very sceptical that ground will be given.
I was being sarcastic, because we all know no one will have much of a crap if they did invade in that area (they had Olympic games in Moscow while they were invading Afghanistan). Sorry if it didn't come across that way.
If you don't believe me, have a look at my previous posts in this thread where I have criticized the West for being hypocritical in their action towards Russia while invading and destroying countries in the middle east themselves (and still actively supporting Saudi destroying Yemen).
I'm from Pakistan so I would be the last person to encourage invading that region, given how it negatively effected my country as well. The 88 is my year of birth incase you were wondering it was some secret affiliation to USSR or right wing politics
I meant east of Ukraine.
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I hope so, sometimes people get carried away in these stressful moments.
Finally watched it — it's a brilliantly researched video although not without a few misconceptions. The biggest one, I believe, is the overaccentuation on the economy as the main motivation for Putin's actions which lead to the comments like this. It's certainly a big part of any decision-making but prioritising economy is more of a capitalistic concept while Putin had shown that he's certainly willing to sacrifice it in order of reaching his main goals. This is why Putin's actions are so hard to predict by any Western analytic (or even western-oriented Russian experts).
And I can't say it enough, the word "oligarchs" shouldn't be used in discussions about current Russia. Oligarchy is a term that is related to a political hierarchy of power. It was widely and appropriately used in discussions about Russia of mid-90's to early 00's but the beginning of Putin's rule was defined by 2 major wars — the war on terror & the war on oligarchy. Khodorkovsky was imprisoned, Berezovsky was exiled (eventually either committing suicide or getting killed if don't believe the former), signalling the change of the system. Very few original oligarchs remain from that time and none have any say on Russian politics whatsoever — not Abramovich, not Mikhelson, not Usmanov, not Potanin... And most are immensely reliant on Putin to keep their wealth & status — the only one who had earned a decent chunk of autonomy is Abramovich.
I saw on a news site that our indian army general has said this type of behavior is expected when the whole country is in a war. Considering the state of the situation, you also need to feel the stress this guards are going through.
Did he specifically go to Ukraine because it was kicking off, or did he happen to be there anywhere? I haven't been keeping track of his videos but last time I watched him he wasn't in eastern Europe at all.
We're long past setting that kind of precedent, deals or just a blind eye make up much of international politics unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your view).
I agree with you that the Ukraine leadership appear unlikely to give that much concession but it's hard to judge as their public views right now are typical propaganda to keep fighting spirits up. Even if they weren't i'm not sure others wouldn't lean on them to accept the terms, it really depends how much the world wants to push Russia towards regime change and how likely they think it actually occurs.
You on about nazi occupation of WWII? Im sure if there was a treaty, it was in a similar manner to the one crimea signed. We did want the independence, and they did say no, you think we had it gifted and acknowledged, not even by russians, but freakin soviets?
How is a transfer not legal, if it's soviet state, they are transferring it under no threat or pressure, to another soviet state? Also, most of the actual crimeans aren't there anymore, thanks to Stalin, but that's irrelevant for our discussion.
Bottom line is, yet again, the Budapest agreement, where Russia is putting pen to the paper saying to Ukraine that crimea is theirs.
I don't know if there is a translation. Is it any non-Ukrainian national? As there is more than just African ethnicity there.
So recognising Ukrainian territories in the East as independent isn’t?
He hasn’t asked for the territory of Ukraine he has invaded it and trying to take it by force to remove the elected government.
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Don't underestimate the commonality of racism in Eastern Europe & especially in Ukraine & Russia (in this particular case we really are very much alike). It doesn't make Ukraine a nazi state like Putin claims, but those traits do tend to show up quite often, sadly — especially in stressful situations like that where those armed men are choosing between them & their own women and children.
So, to those who entertain the idea of Putin having, at least in part, rightous motives against Nazis in Ukraine, He allegedly asked the Wagner group (most of you know whose favourite composer he was) to step in. A Neonazi group tracking a jewish president, that surely sounds like a denazificaiton operation...
the EU is one of the most bureaucratic apparatusses in the world - no need to worry. This will take a minimum of 5 years.
I'm not sure if they are a neonazi group — just like Ukraine having some neonazis in their army doesn't make them a nazi state (or nazi occupants as Putin now decided to call them). War criminals is what they* are — and one of the very worst out there.
*The Wagner Private Military group if it wasn't clear
I think recent unrests in Belarus and the way Putin and Lukashenko have dealt with them by totally oppressing almost any form of opposition have given Putin a belief that he can replicate that in Ukraine. Basically he feels that once you remove all the activists/leaders in communities the rest will get demoralized by the threats of concentration camps and no way out of the oppression machine.
From what I've read, Ukraine told foreign students to leave Ukraine weeks ago. There are a lot of Indian students stuck there too. Now that they're having to escort people out of danger areas they're prioritizing Ukrainians which kind of makes sense. Unless they're prioritizing white Ukrainians over black Ukrainians, but I don't think that's happening here
biggest issue here is the potential oil and gas reserves in Donbas and Crimea. Nobody is going to try and march an army into Russia, nato isnt going to fire rockets after russia, and i honestly dont think he really cares about the fact that Ukraine used to be part of Russian federation(at least not enough to invade it) , to me its all about the benjamins and securing Russia as the dominant gas station for Europe so it can use that as its way to stay relevant.
I read somewhere that Americans/other non Ukrainians are getting out with less issues though. I dunno, it is something that needs to be addressed or clarified at least
You would be surprised at how many Serbs felt the same even at that time. I was 11 in 1999 but clearly remember what my parents and their friends thought.
Unfortunately, the actions of Serbia were dictated by what would be called a vocal minority nowadays. But we all have to leave with the fallout.
Lots of clips about Ukrainians preparing molotovs. Whole rows and stacks of them.
Well it's a military group led by a Nazi with members carrying copies of My Kampf on their tablets. So if it's not a neonazi group, it's at least a group with many nazis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/8iaz6xit26/the-lost-tablet-and-the-secret-documents