Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

To all the economically informed, what's 70% inflation exactly? I believe next year everything costs 70% more, right? But how does that translate to day-to-day consequences?

I think it depends of how they measure it. You can have a 70% increase yearly or monthly. But we have extreme occasions where there were actually daily 70% increases in prices (again it depends on what they count in their basket:normally food, fuel, various commodities). That happened alot in the Balkan in the 90s (esp in Yugoslavia and Albania) also in Germany in the 20s :nervous:
But it's also a typical thing in war torn countries (Greece-Hungary in ww2). And also we then talk about hyperinflation.

In short, I can't answer because I didn't find any articles specifying if it's daily, monthly or yearly. But if you find an article and doesn't say hyperinflation, I think we can assume it's yearly or monthly at least. So if it is monthly and the bread costs 100 rub, roughly means that by then end of the month it will cost 170. So each day the price goes almost up 2 rub or something like this.
 
I think it depends of how they measure it. You can have a 70% increase yearly or monthly. But we have extreme occasions where there were actually daily 70% increases in prices (again it depends on what they count in their basket:normally food, fuel, various commodities). That happened alot in the Balkan in the 90s (esp in Yugoslavia and Albania) also in Germany in the 20s :nervous:
But it's also a typical thing in war torn countries (Greece-Hungary in ww2). And also we then talk about hyperinflation.

In short, I can't answer because I didn't find any articles specifying if it's daily, monthly or yearly. But if you find an article and doesn't say hyperinflation, I think we can assume it's yearly or monthly at least. So if it is monthly and the bread costs 100 rub, roughly means that by then end of the month it will cost 170. So each day the price goes almost up 2 rub or something like this.
Ah thanks bud
 
What's happening in Russia today... are banks closed or is there queues as people look to withdraw savings

Protests? (Anti putin or anti West for the sanctions )

Or life as normal
Banks aren't closed. A lot of people are cashing out though. Some day-to-day services that people come to rely upon aren't working anymore (for example, you can't pay with ApplePay/GooglePay for a subway ticket as the system is managed by VTB that got hit really bad by the Western sanctions).

There are anti-war protest all over the country but not many people are actually going out on them as police brutally stumbles them out. There's a lot of public discussion on the matter though. I don't think that there were any anti-Western protest so far although I don't doubt that there will be some in the future — usually it's government workers and people from other regions who are mobilised and paid/requested to go out to protest (although there's always some % of genuine believers).
 
A question from my end undoubtedly discussed in prior pages but I am trying to keep up.

If we assume the worst and Putin goes trigger happy on nuclear attacks, is there a chain of command or committee of sorts to put him in check? Seems really far fetched to have such key man risk operating in the world. I am sure the majority of Russians don't quite agree with his approach too. Or at least I would like to think this.

Nobody knows but most likely if he wanted to use them he'd be able to do it.
 
To all the economically informed, what's 70% inflation exactly? I believe next year everything costs 70% more, right? But how does that translate to day-to-day consequences?

It's year on year and published monthly. 70% will be an estimate and I don't see any major sources publishing it yet. It looks like a guy on Twitter has calculated it himself.

In other words nothing changes this morning but as it filters down the supply chain things will begin to cost more. It will cost more to buy raw materials as the money you are using is worth less and the interest rates a business has to pay to borrow money goes up.
 
I mean i knew he wouldn't actually fight himself, not many "leaders" are cut from the same cloth Zelensky seems to be cut from.

We really, really, don't know.
Ukraine and their PR stuff has been spot on so far, but how much of it is true is a very different matter. By all means, could be true.
 
To all the economically informed, what's 70% inflation exactly? I believe next year everything costs 70% more, right? But how does that translate to day-to-day consequences?
Don’t go on random numbers. Inflation isn’t 0pct yesterday and 70pct today. Unless every single item in Russia got suddenly marked up by 70pct over night. That doesn’t happen.

for instance, their gas prices will be the same as yesterday. Their food stock, if domestically supplied won’t change for months until wage inflation starts happening.

their inflation can only be directly impactedby the Ruble depreciation to the extent there are imports. On the flip side, exports where allowed will earn that much more.

moreover, the entire thing will be muddied by the Govt intentionally trying to kill imports and other demand that may leave them better off in the near term but worse off in the long run.

dont go by flippant one liners. There’s a lot that goes into this but be rest assured that a good way to figure if economic sanctions are working is to see if large companies there/ local govt are unable to match interestpayments.
 
What does this achieve. No value whatsoever.
As much as your post. And continued support of your post.

Flapping around for someone other than Russia (Putin) to be the culprit in this situation. Even after everything that’s been presented on here/in the world media.

A man who is now threatening nuclear war because he has been hit by sanctions. Who has stated he doesn’t see Ukraine as a sovereign country. Who already annexed Crimea back in 2014, condemned by the UN of course. We’re talking about a guy who will do what he wants, when he wants. And you’re saying you can see why he’s done it?

Rather than point the finger at NATO for ‘expanding’ its territory, or the possibility of, maybe ask the question why countries would want/seek to join. Judging from current events I’d assume you’d get to the answer quickly.
 
We really, really, don't know.
Ukraine and their PR stuff has been spot on so far, but how much of it is true is a very different matter. By all means, could be true.

The fact he is just staying in the city is enough for me, take Macron, Boris or Biden for example they'd be in the cayman islands by now.
 
It's year on year and published monthly. 70% will be an estimate and I don't see any major sources publishing it yet. It looks like a guy on Twitter has calculated it himself.

In other words nothing changes this morning but as it filters down the supply chain things will begin to cost more. It will cost more to buy raw materials as the money you are using is worth less and the interest rates a business has to pay to borrow money goes up.
Don’t go on random numbers. Inflation isn’t 0pct yesterday and 70pct today. Unless every single item in Russia got suddenly marked up by 70pct over night. That doesn’t happen.

for instance, their gas prices will be the same as yesterday. Their food stock, if domestically supplied won’t change for months until wage inflation starts happening.

their inflation can only be directly impactedby the Ruble depreciation to the extent there are imports. On the flip side, exports where allowed will earn that much more.

moreover, the entire thing will be muddied by the Govt intentionally trying to kill imports and other demand that may leave them better off in the near term but worse off in the long run.

dont go by flippant one liners. There’s a lot that goes into this but be rest assured that a good way to figure if economic sanctions are working is to see if large companies there/ local govt are unable to match interestpayments.
Thanks!
 
But, did he know he was lying? To what end? Or did the psychopath just wake up one morning and thought - it's time for armageddon?
I don't even think he was lying. When he values stability he couldn't have liked the often broken, fragile peace in eastern Ukraine. His invasion intented to get rid of the anti-Russian government and therefore bring peace, stability and predictability to Ukraine (read: just obey Putin)
 
If his lieutenants arrest him, they could negotiate a removal of all new sanctions in exchange for Putin and a withdraw from Ukraine and the border. That's a win for everyone but Putin.
I can't see this happening - they are all under his spell. He needs to be taken out, but that will not happen from within I am quite sure.
 
I mean i knew he wouldn't actually fight himself, not many "leaders" are cut from the same cloth Zelensky seems to be cut from.
There's a lot of criticism that you can aim at Kadyrov but I don't think that he lacks individual bravery. Which isn't a good thing — bravery with anger, stupidity and corruption is a very bad combination. He did fought against Russia in the First Chechen War, for example.
 
The fact he is just staying in the city is enough for me, take Macron, Boris or Biden for example they'd be in the cayman islands by now.
Was speaking to my partner about this yesterday. Having a leader that stays in your country to defend it when they could have been taken to safety…must be truest inspiring and a huge morale boost to its occupants. We also came to the conclusion that our MPs/Boris would have left high n dry by now.
 
A question from my end undoubtedly discussed in prior pages but I am trying to keep up.

If we assume the worst and Putin goes trigger happy on nuclear attacks, is there a chain of command or committee of sorts to put him in check? Seems really far fetched to have such key man risk operating in the world. I am sure the majority of Russians don't quite agree with his approach too. Or at least I would like to think this.

I don't think anybody really knows the checks in place at government level, but we know from past close calls there are checks at the military level. Putin could possibly authorise an attack on his own but somebody else has to actually push the button, and somebody else has to tell them to do it.
 
I don't think anybody really knows the checks in place at government level, but we know from past close calls there are checks at the military level. Putin could possibly authorise an attack on his own but somebody else has to actually push the button, and somebody else has to tell them to do it.

Yeah what gives me hope is US intel do not seem to be freaking out about it, or changing their approach so they must know the threat is not immediate. On the other hand them not stepping in physically in Ukraine by sending troops probably means they admit there is an eventual threat under some circumstances.

BTW found out today they have 6,000 nuclear warheads in total but no data on how many of these deployed ones are strategic ones.
 
Was speaking to my partner about this yesterday. Having a leader that stays in your country to defend it when they could have been taken to safety…must be truest inspiring and a huge morale boost to its occupants. We also came to the conclusion that our MPs/Boris would have left high n dry by now.


Can't imagine the likes of Raab, Mogg or Sunak picking up arms or strutting about in military body armour. One of the biggest morale boosters is nearly everyone, from neighbours to friends to people you might not even like all going in one direction to protect something.
 
I don't think anybody really knows the checks in place at government level, but we know from past close calls there are checks at the military level. Putin could possibly authorise an attack on his own but somebody else has to actually push the button, and somebody else has to tell them to do it.
The problem of somebody else is that there are likely hundreds of people who can launch nuclear weapons. Even if most of them refuse the order, it suffices one of them throwing a bomb, for a massive US retaliation which will mean a massive Russian counter-retaliation.

I am talking for a bomb hitting the West, not a tactical one in Ukrainian army, or one in Arctic to scare the West.

Considering that for most part Russia is not targeting civilians, and they still haven’t started using thermobaric bombs, I still think that we are a few steps away from the worst.
 
I'm in the UK and this morning there's delays in online bank transactions, is that to do with what's going on with the Russian banks?
 
A question from my end undoubtedly discussed in prior pages but I am trying to keep up.

If we assume the worst and Putin goes trigger happy on nuclear attacks, is there a chain of command or committee of sorts to put him in check? Seems really far fetched to have such key man risk operating in the world. I am sure the majority of Russians don't quite agree with his approach too. Or at least I would like to think this.
It doesn't matter what the majority of Russians think. Not one jot.
 
The problem of somebody else is that there are likely hundreds of people who can launch nuclear weapons. Even if most of them refuse the order, it suffices one of them throwing a bomb, for a massive US retaliation which will mean a massive Russian counter-retaliation.

I am talking for a bomb hitting the West, not a tactical one in Ukrainian army, or one in Arctic to scare the West.

Considering that for most part Russia is not targeting civilians, and they still haven’t started using thermobaric bombs, I still think that we are a few steps away from the worst.

I'm talking from a very hazy memory here but i don't think they can launch them without first being given a target by higher command and that won't be Putin who knows how to do all that. They literally have nothing to aim them at otherwise. They used to have a default target list during the Soviet era but they adapted their doctrine numerous times since then.
 
Whatever happens from now on, it will be very, very tough for Russian economy. I doubt that the talks will lead to something meaningful. Ukraine will not recognize Crimea as a part of Russia, nor will they consider the separatist areas as independent. Putin will not bow down either. He can probably wihdraw the troops, but sanctions will be there to stay. It really is amazing to see, how fast the West crippled Russia's economy. Their military support has also been priceless. Zelenskyy staying in the country is a heroic action. Hats off to everyone opposing the invasion of Ukraine.
 
It doesn't matter what the majority of Russians think. Not one jot.
Yeah. I think we need to stop thinking about hypotheticals like Putin caring about his family dying, or Russian people dying or anything other than himself. Also a very slim chance that any of his command men are the type of people to defy his orders. If he really resorts to nukes, the only hope is that there is someone powerful enough in his inner circle to overthrow him. And that we do not know.
 
Whatever happens from now on, it will be very, very tough for Russian economy. I doubt that the talks will lead to something meaningful. Ukraine will not recognize Crimea as a part of Russia, nor will they consider the separatist areas as independent. Putin will not bow down either. He can probably wihdraw the troops, but sanctions will be there to stay. It really is amazing to see, how fast the West crippled Russia's economy. Their military support has also been priceless. Zelenskyy staying in the country is a heroic action. Hats off to everyone opposing the invasion of Ukraine.

If he withdraws the troops, sanctions will be gone. He will not do that without getting anything and as you say, Ukraine will not back down. Part of me thinks under current circumstances the wise thing to do would be to recognize independence of Donetsk and Luzhansk, give Crimea back to Russia (I understand their population is mostly pro-Russian anyway) and get this over with. That would be something Putin could pitch as victory to his country, and in a way would be, but fighting over it may not be worth the loss of life. But obviously I may be talking dumb shit as they've been fighting over this for the last 8 years and to back down now would be wrong.

Then slowly work on removing him from his power, as his inner circle and oligarchs will have realized to what lengths he's willing to go to feed his ego.