Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It’s so sombre watching some of the live webcams. It doesn’t look like anything is happening at all in Kyiv, then you realize that normally the city would be lit up entirely. It’s haunting thinking what must be going on in the shadows.
 
Interesting point about how public everything has become. It's one thing to deliver weapons covertly, and no doubt Russian intel would know, but we have countries openly saying it. Future meetings between Russians and Western officials will be awkward.

 
frostbite said:
You are saying that Putin is crazy enough to use nukes instead of giving up the invasion.

Perhaps he is not that crazy. Most thugs give up when someone is stronger than them. But even if Putin is completely crazy, his lackeys will get rid of him before he uses nukes.
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You would hope so, but I wouldn't want to find out.

Biden is entirely sensible when he says:

"You have two options. Start a third world war, go to war with Russia, physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law pays a price for having done it," Biden said.
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Nuclear superpowers cannot engage each other directly even though they engage each other indirectly all the time.
 
Boycott said:
That's fair enough but there are problems with social media too whereby a lot of lies go viral. Some of the most viewed videos including one on tiktok with over 10 million views have nothing to do with this war but were filmed years ago in some other part of the world. The correction never gets widespread as the lie which can itself do a lot of damage as a form of propaganda.
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Oh for sure, the guy saying goodbye to his child for example being completely out of context etc.. I'm not saying its right by the way, just surreal that random Joe is pulling up to broken down Russian vehicles asking them it they want to be towed home etc.. We've learned with covid just how weird social media can be.
 
frostbite said:
You are saying that Putin is crazy enough to use nukes instead of giving up the invasion.

Perhaps he is not that crazy. Most thugs give up when someone is stronger than them. But even if Putin is completely crazy, his lackeys will get rid of him before he uses nukes.
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When I was thinking about it, surely nuclear war means the end of Russia? I mean I don’t think anyone would actually want to nuke Moscow, it’s not like everyone or even majority are crazy there but if they started throwing nukes it would have to happen. Don’t even want to imagine that.
 
In terms of cutting Russia off from Swift is this the news everyone was waiting for? Looks like a select group of banks are going to be hit with the sanctions now.
 
UncleBob said:
some?
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So from the sounds of it, SWIFT 'members' are on a bank by bank basis, not on a country basis.

They are targeting specific banks, Russian central bank is being talked about as being included, which if so is devestating enough on its own.
 
Random thought, but I wonder what Schmeichel and the others who promoted Russia before and during the 2018 World Cup are thinking now.
 
Simbo said:
So from the sounds of it, SWIFT 'members' are on a bank by bank basis, not on a country basis.

They are targeting specific banks, Russian central bank is being talked about as being included, which if so is devestating enough on its own.
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Yes, just thought it was a bit weird to state "some" instead of simply stating they're banning Russian banks
 
Mike Smalling said:
Random thought, but I wonder what Schmeichel and the others who promoted Russia before and during the 2018 World Cup are thinking now.
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Probably happy they secured the bag because even if they wanted to now, Russia cannot pay them.

And we know Schmeichel is a turncoat, so nothing new there.
 
Aviation nerds from around the world on their way to Ukraine now to sign up...

This thing had its own hanger at one of the airports that has seen heavy fighting.

 
Walrus said:
I maintain what I have said over the last couple of days - NATO should enforce a no fly zone, especially in the wake of indiscriminate Russian bombing.

Putin and the Russian state media are covering up this entire thing. They claim it’s a special operation in the Donbas. They claim to the troops it is training exercises. A no fly zone does not interfere with these things. Putin can’t even try to pretend to his own people what is going on, if he contests it.

Are we seriously saying we are allowing Putin to bomb and destroy major urban population centres, just because he claims he will nuke anyone who intervene? A line has to be drawn somewhere and bombing the shit out of Kyiv is well over it.
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Putin could easily spin it as NATO aggression taken too far against training exercises, even gives him an out for all the dead bodies too.

If we try and enforce a no fly zone then out of the silos/into their positions come the nukes. It's really that simple. Unfortunately if that means he shells Kyiv to smithereens then that's his want.

The world will watch on in horror if he does because shelling civilians is barbaric and a war crime but it's better than nuclear war.

I suppose the counter argument is that you pull the nukes out and he stops because of MAD, but it takes one slip then, one misinterpretation and we're all fecked.
 
CNN said:
Russian invasion runs into stiff resistance, supply lines 'definite vulnerability,' US officials say
From Jim Sciutto and Oren Liebermann

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is encountering "stiffer than expected" resistance from the Ukrainian military as well as unexpected difficulties supplying its forces, two senior US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.
On the battlefield, Russia is suffering heavier losses in personnel, armor and aircraft than expected. This is due, in part, to the fact Ukrainian air defenses have performed better than anticipated in pre-invasion US intelligence assessments. In addition, Russia has yet to establish air supremacy over Ukraine, a senior defense official said, as the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense systems fight for control of the airspace.

Ukrainian air defenses, including aircraft, do continue to be operable and continue to engage and deny access to Russian aircraft in places over the country,” the official said.
Without uncontested control of the skies, it becomes more difficult for an army on the move to see and strike targets from the air.

Officials caution this picture of the battlefield is just a moment in time, and the situation on the ground could change very quickly as Russian forces keep up their assault.

The Ukrainian military has a number of different anti-aircraft weapons, including radar-guided and heat-seeking missiles, as well as anti-aircraft guns, according to IHS Janes. The US has also provided Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in recent weeks, as have other NATO allies.

As of Saturday evening, the US had not seen any indication the Russian military has taken control over any Ukrainian cities, the official said, even as Russian forces have moved to surround some population centers, including the capital of Kyiv.
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My last post for now, because the sun will rise soon and I have not slept yet. Why in my extremely armchair opinion Putin started the war now:
1.His rating is at all time low. Whenever it drops, he starts a war and nation applauds him.
2. He thought it was the right time. Obviously he hates Ukraine as a sovereign state. Having annexed Krym and get out of this crime with little to no punishment, he was hoping for similar consequences.
3. He thought that people within Ukraine will support him being divided historically. Turned out that the cnut united them and have turned himself into their ultimate enemy.
4. He underestimated Ukraine's army and preparedness. Ukraine, having little to no significant airborne capabilities, was supposed to be a walk in the park. Ukraine was trained, prepared and supported well.
5. The cnut has bribed many politicians in the west and was hoping for their practical support. Turned out that the people he bribed were also cnuts and managed to get his money but did not support him as it would ruin their own careers.
6. He never thought that draconian sanctions would be applied. Post covid times, Europe needs Russia's oil money and natural gas, US have a president who prefers negotiations to wars. Troops are out of Afghanistan, Biden would not want another war against Mighty Russia.

Well, he was wrong on all of that. He failed. Hope all the wishes of all the people dying and suffering because of him come true. Glory, glory Ukraine and its friends. Putler and his cronies burn in hell. May you have slow, long and extremely painful deaths.
 
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Suv666 said:
Anonymous are a joke. Just a bunch of kids who dont know shit about cybersecurity. Certainly no match for Russian hackers.
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Yet they've done what they've set to do so far. Taken down the Russian propaganda websites and seemingly done this as well.
 
Simbo said:
Aviation nerds from around the world on their way to Ukraine now to sign up...

This thing had its own hanger at one of the airports that has seen heavy fighting.

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My reaction when I read this...

I'm an asshole.
 
led_scholes said:
At this point you have to wonder what Intel did Russia have. Did they think that Ukraine is Andorra or something?
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It does seem that Putin pushed this war and simply has lost his mind. According to the Guardian:

"Western defence attaches have claimed that Valery Gerasimov, Putin’s most senior commander and the chief of the general staff of Russia’s armed forces, had warned the president that invading Ukraine might not be straightforward. And so it has proved. For now, though, Russia’s military and political leadership are firmly behind the operation.
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So how did we get here? One explanation is the increasingly erratic behaviour of Putin himself. Speaking before the invasion, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said Russia’s president lived in a strange parallel reality. He had succumbed – like dictators before him – to believing his own version of the world.

“Putin thinks that Ukraine’s government is corrupt, western and irredeemably Russophobic,” the official said. “He understood the Ukrainian people, by contrast, would welcome Russia and intervention. He considers us to be rural Russians.” Putin’s spy agencies had told him what he wanted to hear, he added.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/how-ukrainian-defiance-has-derailed-putins-plans
 
VorZakone said:
Interesting point about how public everything has become. It's one thing to deliver weapons covertly, and no doubt Russian intel would know, but we have countries openly saying it. Future meetings between Russians and Western officials will be awkward.

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I think they’re all sensing this an opportunistic time to get rid of Vlad and don’t really care anymore. If Ukraine pull this off, it’s not just crushing to Russia, it absolutely humiliates Putin and probably begins calls from vultures to remove him including the oligarch’s. This is almost becoming Hitlers last days in Berlin.
 
With these sanctions and cutting Russia off from the world, is it all lifted if Russia retreat? Or has a line been crossed that cant go back
 
clarkydaz said:
With these sanctions and cutting Russia off from the world, is it all lifted if Russia retreat? Or has a line been crossed that cant go back
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All of them is certainly not going to be lifted anytime soon, slow progress
 
clarkydaz said:
With these sanctions and cutting Russia off from the world, is it all lifted if Russia retreat? Or has a line been crossed that cant go back
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No idea what would happen, but I would hope they keep the sanctions going until enough pressure is created for Putin to be removed.
 
mariachi-19 said:
I think they’re all sensing this an opportunistic time to get rid of Vlad and don’t really care anymore. If Ukraine pull this off, it’s not just crushing to Russia, it absolutely humiliates Putin and probably begins calls from vultures to remove him including the oligarch’s. This is almost becoming Hitlers last days in Berlin.
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There must come a time, soon enough if Russian forces get bogged down in Ukraine, when people decide to remove Putin from office. The question is how long will that take and who could feasibly do it? @harms any ideas?

Would be the quickest way out of the sanctions and perhaps even to a negotiating table regarding the neutrality of Ukraine.
 
Simbo said:
Aviation nerds from around the world on their way to Ukraine now to sign up...

This thing had its own hanger at one of the airports that has seen heavy fighting.

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Only slightly related, but this whole war is actually due to the movie 2012, where one of the kids says "wow that's a big plane" and the fat oligarch proudly says "eez russian". Putin watched that movie and thought to himself "I'm a massive twat" and the rest is history.
 
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