Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I'm not saying otherwise. Russia has legitimate beef with NATO, and it's clear to understand they don't want NATO parked on their doorstep, but those nations are still self-determining nations, unless we are claiming NATO forced them to sign up at gunpoint.

Can we acknowledge reality without having to go to weird extremes like NATO forcing someone at gunpoint? NATO leading nations knew perfectly that the expansion of NATO would be interpreted as hostile, the same way they would interpret a similar expansion toward their borders as hostile. I don't blame those smaller nations for taking a good deal, I understand why they would do it but it doesn't mean that NATO don't know what they are doing. And if needed be I really hope that they will protect those nations.
 
I know it’s almost meme level joking about this being enough to end the war but these sorts of things are going to add up to the Russian public over time. No Eurovision, no Grand Prix, no Champions League, the list is going to go on and on and over time the public is going to begin to massively resent being cut off from the rest of the world.
While this may indeed be the case, you are underestimating the strength of Russian stubbornness supported by Putin's propaganda machine.
 
I doubt there would be a message. Once one goes they probably all go.
It would be tactical nuclear weapons aimed at destroying a large military build up. Bombing cities like Hiroshima would be the very last option.
 


Has there been talks of consequences for Belarus as well?

Allowing the Russians free entry gives them a huge strategic benefit in being able to attack from an additional front. Belarus has blood on their hands as well.
 
Rospotrebnadzor has just announced a partial blockage of Facebook in Russia because it violates basic human rights and freedoms... by limiting their access to Russian media.
 
It would be tactical nuclear weapons aimed at destroying a large military build up. Bombing cities like Hiroshima would be the very last option.

Simply deploying nuclear weapons at all crosses such massive red lines, that I dont think it matters at that point. Once one of them has been fired, a chain of events has been started that likely results in the end of the world as we know it.
 


If I were Finland I think I would join now before its too late

Threat after threat to basically everyone but we still fight over nonsense like selling them diamonds or gucci's or whatever instead of actually putting them to their place. We have the power to severely damage Russia's economy and if we cannot agree now, we never will.
 
I know it’s almost meme level joking about this being enough to end the war but these sorts of things are going to add up to the Russian public over time. No Eurovision, no Grand Prix, no Champions League, the list is going to go on and on and over time the public is going to begin to massively resent being cut off from the rest of the world.

The other end of that spectrum would be increased hatred for the west for taking these things away.
 
This is a very valid point. The best answers I have is that these things are not binary. There was no NATO that caused WW1 or 2. We are talking about a democratic country who peacefully disarmed their nuclear deterrent in exchange for guarantees of security from UK, US and Russia. I can’t say I am an expert, but do those guarantees not still stand? We are talking about a country who aspired - and even wrote into their constitution - to join NATO.

The only difference between the current situation and Hitler is that the latter didn’t have nukes. It’s unfortunate that we live in a world where mutually assured destruction is a possibility, but it is. The question is, is Putin really prepared to destroy the world (since I’m damn sure they would be the ones to make the first strike if it happened)? And would the Russian people and military let him? Until troops are marching on Moscow, I can’t see it happening. As long as NATO was clear about retaking Ukraine (and maybe Belarus while we are there), there is no reason to escalate.

My other idea was to enact a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Putin publicly claims that this is a special military operation, focused on the Donbas. With that in mind, a no-fly zone over the rest of Ukraine (ie Kyiv) should not interfere with his plans. Ukraine has the right to request their airspace be protected.
In practice, this would either mean Putin ceding that this is a full invasion, or sacrificing air operations - which would give the Ukrainians a much better fighting chance, if nothing else.

Alternately, tell Ukraine to sacrifice the Donbas and Crimea region in exchange for immediate NATO membership. If this conflict is about Donbas (which publicly, it is, according to Russia) then the conflict is over and you get Ukraine into NATO immediately. Again, is Putin going to start throwing nukes around for the sake of Western Ukraine? Not convinced.

Just my own personal opinion but I don't think (hope) nuclear weapons will ever actually be used in a conflict again. There are no winners, it would be the end of life as we know it or maybe just the end full stop. And I think everyone with the capability even the likes of Putin is well aware of that.

But even taking the nuclear element off the table war between Russia and one or more of the major Western powers with conventional weapons would likely be much more bloody and result in many times more deaths.

I think there have been so many proxy wars fought since ww2 because warfare has evolved to the point where the superpowers see direct war between themselves only as a last resort when they have no other choice. Eg if Russia had attacked a NATO member only then US/UK/etc would have to intervene. And vice versa.

And sadly in the case of Ukraine they do have the choice to just not get involved directly. I like many people wish Ukraine had more help, it seems wrong that no one is helping them and would love to see Putin put in his place. But maybe for the sake of the long term wider peace it's best that the conflict doesn't escalate with other countries getting involved.

I still have no idea what putin really wants so I'm not sure how this could be resolved quickly at this point. But I can't imagine Ukraine will be joining NATO any time soon.
 
Can we acknowledge reality without having to go to weird extremes like NATO forcing someone at gunpoint? NATO leading nations knew perfectly that the expansion of NATO would be interpreted as hostile, the same way they would interpret a similar expansion toward their borders as hostile. I don't blame those smaller nations for taking a good deal, I understand why they would do it but it doesn't mean that NATO don't know what they are doing. And if needed be I really hope that they will protect those nations.

It's not a weird extreme. It's a figure of speech. It also seems like you're not disagreeing with anything I said.
 
They were but that's just a common thing rather than any particular readiness for this invasion.

I was morbidly thinking who the first country Russia would try nuke if they wanted to send a message. It would probably be the UK wouldn't it.
They wouldn't nuke a nato member who has their own nukes first

Taiwan... gives China an excuse to send in the military for humanitarian reasons

or possibly Bosnia / Finland as neither is in nato and does not have nukes
 
Rospotrebnadzor has just announced a partial blockage of Facebook in Russia because it violates basic human rights and freedoms... by limiting their access to Russian media.
Got to the think public pressure is growing for that to happen (given assume there is already a lot of censorship and fear of posting certain things?)
 
Simply deploying nuclear weapons at all crosses such massive red lines, that I dont think it matters at that point. Once one of them has been fired, a chain of events has been started that likely results in the end of the world as we know it.

Nuclear weapons are currently deployed and you can bet that a few of them are in the area.
 
That is why I was of the opinion that tough sanctions should've been imposed straight away. No messing around. Go all in, and then negotiate steps back if necessary.

But you are probably right, unfortunately, dark days ahead. Putin tried to reassure the oligarchs yesterday when he said that the state will give them more freedom. Meaning more burden on ordinary people.
Putin & his goons have enough money to withstand any external economical pressure and he doesn't care about Russian people enough for them to really influence his decisions. It's very egoistical of me, of course, but I just know that he's going to be just as good as he was before and we're going to struggle while Russian stance on the matter of Ukraine won't change even a bit.

The only possible scenario where those sanctions would actually lead to anything is if the whole entirety of Russian population riots and overthrows the current regime but somehow I doubt that it's possible :(
 
I know it’s almost meme level joking about this being enough to end the war but these sorts of things are going to add up to the Russian public over time. No Eurovision, no Grand Prix, no Champions League, the list is going to go on and on and over time the public is going to begin to massively resent being cut off from the rest of the world.
Yep, see Tom Peck's article that I just posted from The Independent. He calls for RB Leipzig to refuse to play Spartak and for all other clubs in the competition to align with them. His argument is the blazers will do nothing, so we have to call on clubs and players to act, no matter how unfair that expectation is. Sporting boycotts work.

If United were playing Zenit in the CL, I would 100% want them to refuse to play the tie. 100%.
 
Biden said a couple of weeks ago that he would not send in US troops into Ukraine because Americans and Russians shooting at each other would mean a world war. That was an elaboration about his messages to Americans in Ukraine to leave the country immediately at a time when a lot of people thought the warnings were hysteria. I think the Afghanistan withdrawal weighed heavily on his thinking because there was criticism of the US being slow to evacuate their own people.
 
So, Germany is sending help in the form of helmets but the exchange cannot take place in Ukraine. I'm seriously struggling to understand the difference here, either way, Russia knows Germany supplied Ukranians with aid (much like other countries have been doing) Yet Russia continues with this "If you interfere you will face consequences" rhetoric. I think its safe to say the West has interfered. It may be time to call their bluff entirely, and impose the toughest sanctions possible immediately.
 
I have grave doubts that this war will remain contained to being between Russia and Ukraine only.

Putin is just so all in on this, there seems to be a readiness to escalate even further at the drop of a hat. Combine this with the feeling of disgust felt by publics across the west.

I'm not knowledgeable about this stuff though and am probably off the mark. I hope so.
 
Those Russian flights over Ireland & the U.K. a few months ago, were no training were they? Seems to me they were checking response times in the event that the U.K. in particular might go to war

More concerning is the Russian ship off of Ireland that was loitering around the transatlantic internet cables.
 
It's not a weird extreme. It's a figure of speech. It also seems like you're not disagreeing with anything I said.

I disagreed with the insinuation that nations choosing to join NATO is an alternative to the idea that NATO expanded to the east. Both are true not one or the other.
 
So, Germany is sending help in the form of helmets but the exchange cannot take place in Ukraine. I'm seriously struggling to understand the difference here, either way, Russia knows Germany supplied Ukranians with aid (much like other countries have been doing) Yet Russia continues with this "If you interfere you will face consequences" rhetoric. I think its safe to say the West has interfered. It may be time to call their bluff entirely, and impose the toughest sanctions possible immediately.
I think it is a joke of Germany sending them 5000 helmets 2 weeks ago.