Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Then they've got no chance with the current forces they're being faced with.

They'd be better off standing-down and ensuring enough of the anti-Putin sentiment is left alive. I'm being genuinely serious.

Fight whatever government is instated in Ukraine at the polls, not with makeshift weapons against a highly trained killing force.
I mean for clarity are you expecting free and fair democratic elections to facilitate that ?
 
I'm not saying he's right in what he's doing but that's the way he sees it. Nato expanded influence Eastwards via membership agreements so he wants to expand his influence West via tanks.

Fair enough. In that case Putin is ignoring the reason why those countries wanted to be a part of NATO and it's precisely because they don't want to be vassal states again.

In a nutshell it's a weak excuse for this action and he knows it.
 
Not really, I reckon. If no ceasire/diplomatic solution is reached, then Ukraine will fall anyhow. But then what happens? If Ukrainians can organize a proper insurgency, this can take a long while.

And you would think they would get quite a bit of support in organising an insurgency in terms of finance and supplies, even tacitly. Not like there's any benefit for the other major European countries in Russia not being bogged down in an expensive occupation.
 
I asked this before, but what stops him from marching on to other countries as well? Are the UK, US, Germany, France etc. going to sit by and watch as every non NATO country in Europe becomes Russian territory?
I'd like to see them try to suppress tens of millions of people into accepting their rule. Yes they can beat their armies, but the underground movements will cost them massively.

NATO will be forced to act eventually. Putin is currently lording it over them, someone will eventually draw a line in the sand and lord knows what'll happen.
 
Is this verified? And if so, is this as a result of a decision made policy towards Ukrainian refugees, or due to system overload?
They are only processing family visa applications and not tourism or other more general visas. So we couldn't apply for our in-laws to come because parents of a UK national are not in scope. They would a tourism visa which cannot be applied for from Ukraine currently.

Anyone who expected Britain to be one of the easier countries to get a visa to is very, very naive. Our policies have been designed to keep families apart and make it way more difficult than it should be for people to even bring their partners to the UK. It is very expensive and you need to meet a certain barrier financially. We got married in Ukraine and I had to move back to the UK alone to earn a salary over the threshold to be able to apply for my wife to then move here.
 
Invading through Norway? Now, that would be stupid for sure. But given the very strategic Norwegian coastline, I can imagine we're a priority in a case where war actually breaks loose. For both sides.

Speaking of Kaliningrad - how did Russia manage to keep that exclave?
Speaking Russia invading Norway. We've got the last series of Okkupert to watch, but it has always been a very uncomfortable watch given how close to the bone it is.
 
Invading through Norway? Now, that would be stupid for sure. But given the very strategic Norwegian coastline, I can imagine we're a priority in a case where war actually breaks loose. For both sides.

Speaking of Kaliningrad - how did Russia manage to keep that exclave?

After WW2 when Germany was forced to give up territory Russia wanted it as its a strategic port city and it wasn't a priority for anybody else.
 
Well said.

Can't believe how many are buying Putin's public reasoning.
"Expanding NATO" meant "welcoming newly democratic states into our alliance of democratic states when they asked to join". Let's not forget that.
 
Even if Ukraine stayed neutral, Russia would have tried to conquer them, or rule them the way they rule their puppet state Belarus. Is that really a better option for the people? Finlandization is unrealistic. It's a real shame that the west doesn't defend a country trying to stand up for western values. They were quick enough to meddle in Syria and the middle east. It's just all about the money.

It's not just money. Fighting weak middle Eastern countries is no risk. A few thousand soldiers die over a decade - nobody even notices. Back home the war exists only in the news reports.

Fight Russia and its bombs landing in your cities, £100m worth of fighter jets being shot down, £300m worth of ships being sunk - the cost of war runs into billions of damages a week as well as hundreds of lives lost daily.
 
Speaking Russia invading Norway. We've got the last series of Okkupert to watch, but it has always been a very uncomfortable watch given how close to the bone it is.

I watched season 1, and for sure. Even more now, I'd imagine.
 
No one ever believed that USA and UK would invade Iraq either saying they had WMD. NATO was formed to counter Russia and the USSR. Why else would NATO be there after the USSR was broken up? They expanded it right to The Russian borders. Their prime enemy is Russia.

Oh come on. Comparing Iraq is laughable. Russia is an enormous landmass, and a superpower armed with a ton of nukes. Nobody is ever invading that country.
 
Let them meet the Azov battalion.


feck. I hope if these 'people' are allowed to commit atrocities, it's at least recorded and shown.

Too often media talk but do not show the real impact of conflict. I thought similar for Corona - show the hospitals filling up to bring it closer to home. Same here and do it on repeat in case someone decides they're bored of this and want another new TikTok trend to follow.
 
I think this is dangerously naïve.

There's a reason these countries spend what they do on their nuclear arsenals. The NATO members and the US in particular are well aware of when and why they would be used and that's largely what's dictating their response or lack thereof. Putin will know once NATO gets involved that he is completely outmatched conventionally - He would know that everything he's just staked his personal legacy on is doomed. How anyone could be confident that he'd back down in this scenario given how far he's already gone is beyond me. He's already put himself at huge personal risk with this invasion. This childish notion that bullies will always stand down when you step to them is just ludicrous - They have these nuclear weapons for a reason and there would be huge internal on pressure on Putin if his gambit has failed for all the world to see. In that scenario you're relying on a 70 year old man with little else to lose to do the graceful thing and walk away or blindly hope that someone launches a successful coup to prevent him escalating. That may happen, it might even be likely but I'm certainly not willing to risk civilisation for it.

The US, UK and NATO are fervently anti-Russia. They want nothing more than this hostile power taken out but they still don't budge on this for a reason. They know nuclear war isn't the sci-fantasy some seem to think - They know themselves how close things have come in the past even without the sort of existential threat that would be facing Putin. There's been pro's and cons to the existence of nuclear weapons but I think the cons far outweigh the pros. They make limited warfare an inevitability - You have the contradictory attitude to want to defeat and enemy but not too badly that they'll lash out. It's far too dangerous a game to play, especially with someone who's just put himself in an extremely fragile position.

This is a better response than your previous one to me, where you just called me insane, so thanks.

Nuclear weapons are a deterrent. Typically that has meant “a deterrent to protect one’s own sovereignty”, unfortunately the precedent that the Putin regime is setting is “the ability to go about your agenda unopposed”. This is problematic and escalators, and if he is allowed to get away with it (ie it’s shown that his plan works), then not only Russia, but other authoritarian states will follow suit.

Taiwan up next. The question is no longer “will the US defend Taiwan?”, the question is “will the US be prepared to blow up the world, for Taiwan”.

Putin is a rogue actor and essentially a terrorist. He is holding the world hostage, whilst he carries out his demands. The more you let him do it, the bolder he gets, and the bolder other states get. It’s a very slippery slope until you live in a world where all claimed territory belongs to one of a handful of nuclear powers.

We have to believe that there is still a middle ground, where conventional warfare does not lead to nukes being thrown around. If we defend Ukraine, but do not take a step onto Russian soil, there is no reason for escalation. Let Putin frame it in whatever way he wants to back at home with his propaganda channels. Let him claim victory in order to save face if he wants. Hell, let him keep Crimea. But show him that the west is prepared to defend itself.

Show him once, and show strength, and with any luck you never need to do so again - that is the best deterrent.
 
"Expanding NATO" meant "welcoming newly democratic states into our alliance of democratic states when they asked to join". Let's not forget that.
Indeed.

It's mind boogling how some people simealteanously blame nato for nato expansion and for not expanding to Ukraine.
 
Neither Sweden nor Finland have ever applied for NATO membership and officially pursue a neutral politic, despite that both, especially Sweden is quite a lot NATO. However, I think the Ukraine thing has changed their minds, I am interested to see an opinion poll there (last one in Finland, only 20% something of people were pro joining NATO).

Sweden and Finland are (alongside Ireland, Switzerland, and Austria) the few western democracies still not in NATO.

The opinion has been progressively pro-NATO. In January 66 % said we should be open to joining if the situation were to get worse.


In Finland the latest poll (published about a week ago) there was a big increase. It showed 43 % would support membership if the President and PM consider it in the country's best interest. 27 % against and 30 % undecided. I think it is the highest supprot ever in Finland.
 
I think people are getting tired of "Putin has a point" bollocks, as he embarks on his murderous rampage.

Yep. Iraq was a right feck up, but it had some basis from United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441 which found Iraq in material breach of its obligations to disarm and was a "final opportunity to comply." Now if that justified what followed is still a legal debate now.

I challenge anyone to find me ANYTHING from the UN or other recognised international body respected by both sides that gives this the validity that had (granted based partly on some very bad intel.) But no one has, because there isn't.
 
I think this is dangerously naïve.

There's a reason these countries spend what they do on their nuclear arsenals. The NATO members and the US in particular are well aware of when and why they would be used and that's largely what's dictating their response or lack thereof. Putin will know once NATO gets involved that he is completely outmatched conventionally - He would know that everything he's just staked his personal legacy on is doomed. How anyone could be confident that he'd back down in this scenario given how far he's already gone is beyond me. He's already put himself at huge personal risk with this invasion. This childish notion that bullies will always stand down when you step to them is just ludicrous - They have these nuclear weapons precisely to deter conflict with superpowers and there would be huge internal on pressure on Putin if his gambit has failed for all the world to see. In that scenario you're relying on a 70 year old man with little else to lose to do the graceful thing and walk away or blindly hope that someone launches a successful coup to prevent him escalating. That may happen, it might even be likely but I'm certainly not willing to risk civilisation for it.

The US, UK and NATO are fervently anti-Russia. They want nothing more than this hostile power taken out but they still don't budge on this for a reason. They know nuclear war isn't the sci-fantasy some seem to think - They know themselves how close things have come in the past even without the sort of existential threat that would be facing Putin. There's been pro's and cons to the existence of nuclear weapons but I think the cons far outweigh them and that people have become almost desensitised to the danger they present. They make limited warfare an inevitability - You have the contradictory attitude to want to defeat and enemy but not too badly that they'll lash out. It's far too dangerous a game to play, especially with someone who's just put himself in an extremely fragile position.

To add to the previous comment - this whole thing is about Putin knowing what he can get away with. He knows the west weren’t prepared to go to war for Ukraine, so he attacked. If he didn’t know whether the west would go to war, or if he thought we would, then he wouldn’t have attacked.

It’s really just the old saying - if you want peace, prepare for war. Freedom isn’t free. Blah blah blah. You need to be seen to be prepared to go to war (and then follow through if it comes to it).

Putin understands this. He puts on a big enough theatre and spectacle and comes across insane enough that the west BELIEVES he will launch nukes. And so he does what he wants, uncontested. If he didn’t project that image, and we didn’t believe that he would hit the button, it would be a different story. At some point it will be tested, it’s a question of “when”, not “if”
 
Perhaps Nato should declare it independent and conduct a special operation to de-nazify it?

I wish. That area should have been a bargaining chip and a direct counterweight to the Russian build-up outside Ukraine before the invasion. And to be honest, Königsberg (I'm openly disrespecting the current name in favor ot its long-standing historical name here) and what used to be East Prussia should now belong to either Poland, Lithuania or even both based on geography alone.

More German clumsiness:



Wow, that is pathetic.
 
More German clumsiness:



Most powerful European nation? They've been a joke throughout this whole ordeal. Living in a total fantasy land, concerned primarily with their own gas bill. Shouldn't be forgotten. They just don't have the political appetite for the current climate it seems.
 
To add to the previous comment - this whole thing is about Putin knowing what he can get away with. He knows the west weren’t prepared to go to war for Ukraine, so he attacked. If he didn’t know whether the west would go to war, or if he thought we would, then he wouldn’t have attacked.

It’s really just the old saying - if you want peace, prepare for war. Freedom isn’t free. Blah blah blah. You need to be seen to be prepared to go to war (and then follow through if it comes to it).

Putin understands this. He puts on a big enough theatre and spectacle and comes across insane enough that the west BELIEVES he will launch nukes. And so he does what he wants, uncontested. If he didn’t project that image, and we didn’t believe that he would hit the button, it would be a different story. At some point it will be tested, it’s a question of “when”, not “if”

"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."
 
Germany definitely have overcompensated for WW2 in terms of reducing military prowess :lol: