Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
Indeed. Very big news
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I'm curious: what remains unauthorized then after this new policy move? Using the weapons to strike beyond Kursk?

The officials said that while the Ukrainians were likely to use the missiles first against Russian and North Korean troops that threaten Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Mr. Biden could authorize them to use the weapons elsewhere.
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Raoul said:
Probably where they can be used. In places like Kursk as opposed as to in the direction of Moscow or St Pete.
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George Barros from the ISW argues that the policy must be broader than just Kursk.

 
This would also likely mean that French/British SCALP/Storm Shadow can be used in Kursk?
 
That is a pretty big change in policy. We'll have to wait and see see what, if any, restrictions are still on the range/targets they are allowed to use long range strikes on - I don't read the NYTimes article as saying it is restricted within Kursk. Just that NK troops in Kursk might be the first target.

Edit: I guess the last part in this sentence implies a restriction in Kursk - feels rather poorly worded though:

The officials said that while the Ukrainians were likely to use the missiles first against Russian and North Korean troops that threaten Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Mr. Biden could authorize them to use the weapons elsewhere.
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If it is just within Kursk then that is still a very significant restriction.

The Firestarter said:
It's per country I believe. So Joe approved just the US made kit.
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France and UK had already wanted to approve the use of their missiles for long range strike in Russia - but needed US support for that decision. In fact they were asking Biden to allow those strikes just last week:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11...nge-missile-policy-ahead-of-trump-presidency/

Ukraine needs US permission to fully utilize British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes into Russia because of the missile’s reliance on advanced guidance systems that require highly accurate elevation maps, owned by the United States. Without access to this classified cartography data, the missiles would depend solely on GPS navigation, making them more susceptible to Russian electronic warfare and reducing their effectiveness.
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I guess we still don't officially know if this permission has been given, but it would be surprising if the US would not allow it given the change in ATACMS use policy.
 
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Not sure if this AP video has been posted yet but in case someone had any doubt about astroturfing of comments with pro Kremlin (dont automatically want to accuse the average Russian) often disguised as Trump comments (or maybe theyre of the same mind?) have a look at the comments on this:

 
Raoul said:
I suspect things are far less stable than Putin would like the outside world to believe, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given years to deep sanctions and needless foreign war. At some point, the entire economy is likely to implode.
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Unfortunately, the usage of words like “implode” or “crumble” with regards to Russian economy is wishful thinking. Many people in the West are very eager to bring up 1917 or 1991 but today’s Russia is nothing like that. Also all the numbers cited in the tweet are 2x worse in, say, Turkey for multiple years now - and hardly anyone is expecting a collapse there.

The reality is that Russia (for all its undeniable economic problems) has had 25 years of largely very responsible monetary and fiscal policies under Putin. It has virtually no debt, it has a sizeable rainy day fund still. Its central bank, finance ministry etc have been run by people who are reasonably competent and aware of best practices applied in the west. The head of the central bank who has been very respected globally is still there etc. And Putin is smart enough unfortunately to not interfere (unlike etc Erdogan).

Plus for all of the brain drain Russia still has a decent human capital and a quite vibrant private sector (which is also instrumental in reducing the sanctions impact, along with the fact that Russia has enough countries to trade with and skirt sanctions by importing western goods through third countries etc). In general, over the last three decades of being relatively open to the world there has been a lot of importing of (mostly western) know how with regards to conducting of business, management practices etc etc - much of that did not vanish overnight.

As much as it is easy to paint the picture of a poor and badly run country under a bloody dictator in your mind, in fact Russia is a lot lot better place to live in for an average citizen than it was 20-25 years ago (unless you go to war I guess). And that comes from someone who honestly would not mind Russia’s collapse as it would give my native country (Belarus) a chance for the democratic future. But you have to adequately see the reality still.

Yes, the political system, corruption, bad demographics and labour force reduction due to immigration and war will have significant consequences and the current economic growth in Russia is likely to end quite soon. But it will be followed by stagnation, not any sort of free fall. If you expect food shortages or deep recession with a big reduction in living standards - you will be disappointed.

Unless Russia engages in a full-scale military confrontation with the West (which it is likely to eventually lose due to being a lot weaker economically as one of the key factors), I cannot see anything overly dramatic there in terms of an acute economic downturn. And I really hope to be wrong.
 
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Redplane said:
Not sure if this AP video has been posted yet but in case someone had any doubt about astroturfing of comments with pro Kremlin (dont automatically want to accuse the average Russian) often disguised as Trump comments (or maybe theyre of the same mind?) have a look at the comments on this:

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Seems like your average Kremlin bot farm operation, with probably a smattering of easily led MAGA stooges participating as well. If the change in policy wasn’t such a big deal, I doubt it would garner this much attention.
 
Carolina Red said:
@harms - anything to this?

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Not too sure on the potato prices specifically but seems legit, the inflation is insane and the food have been getting more and more expensive. The mortgage rate is true, the key rate of the Bank of Russia (that directly influences it) is the only real instrument that said bank has in order to keep inflation under control (yeah, right) so they keep rising at an insane rate.
 
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Abizzz said:
Russian dancer dies after ACCIDENTAL fall from balcony

How come they always use this method to kill people? Is it some sort of internal joke within the KGB to see people fall to their death?
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I don’t think they do. It became a bit of a meme in the English-speaking world so every case gets highlighted (legit ones and the random ones that have nothing to do with FSB or other siloviki) but I very much doubt that it’s even their preferred method.

Their political opponents usually get poisoned (Navalny, Kara-Murza etc.), shot (Nemtsov, Politkovskaya, Markelov) or they get imprisoned and just die suspiciously (Navalny, Magnitsky).
 
harms said:
I don’t think they do. It became a bit of a meme in the English-speaking world so every case gets highlighted (legit ones and the random ones that have nothing to do with FSB or other siloviki) but I very much doubt that it’s even their preferred method.

Their political opponents usually get poisoned (Navalny, Kara-Murza etc.), shot (Nemtsov, Politkovskaya, Markelov) or they get imprisoned and just die suspiciously (Navalny, Magnitsky).
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Very possible that it's observation bias on my part. It just seems so absurd that a 39 y.o ballet dancer would lose balance and fall of his balcony, almost as if they wanted to mock him with the method they kill him.
 
Abizzz said:
Very possible that it's observation bias on my part. It just seems so absurd that a 39 y.o ballet dancer would lose balance and fall of his balcony, almost as if they wanted to mock him with the method they kill him.
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Absurd things happen in life. I think the assumption is that he was heavily under the influence of some drugs (be it painkillers or “painkillers”) as he was supposed to have an operation soon.

I’ll never fully discard any version that blames FSB for killing someone, they obviously do so fairly regularly, but genuinely I don’t think that’s the case here. He’s not an oligarch or a government worker, he’s not a high-profile activist (like many, he seems to have spoken out against the war in February of 2022 before becoming quiet after all the criminal laws were introduced)… their preferred go-to method in dealing with such cases is not killing (especially if it’s disguised as something accidental), it’s a 1. status of a foreign agent (and, later, an extremist & terrorist) 2. a criminal case with some insane sentence, from 6 to 15 years (could be even more but that seems to be the usual range) depending on whenever it’s the “fake news and discreditation of the Russian army” or, well, “state treason”. It works much better as it keeps people on edge as everyone knows that you could be next if you speak out — the accidental (regardless of whenever it actually is or it’s being disguised as such) death doesn’t quite have the same effect.
 
harms said:
Not too sure on the potato prices specifically but seems legit, the inflation is insane and the food has been getting more and more expensive. The mortgage rate is true, the key rate of the Bank of Russia (that directly influences it) is the only real instrument that said bank has in order to keep inflation under control (yeah, right) so they keep rising at an insane rate.
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Good. Even if it is half those figures, it will be hurting the average russian people.
Nevertheless, the average Ukrainian will be hurting more.
 
Abizzz said:
Russian dancer dies after ACCIDENTAL fall from balcony

How come they always use this method to kill people? Is it some sort of internal joke within the KGB to see people fall to their death?
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It is so everybody knows it was them, but they don’t have to admit it and still possess plausible deniability. It’s the same with Novichok. Everybody knows it was them, they want everybody to know, but they don’t want to admit it, due to the diplomatic repercussions.
 
Why only allow long range missiles now? Yeah its a good thing but its about 2 years late. And if there are restrictions to which areas of Russia they can hit then thats another fk up. And they also need to send them a sht load of missiles before Trump gets in
 
UpWithRivers said:
Why only allow long range missiles now? Yeah its a good thing but its about 2 years late. And if there are restrictions to which areas of Russia they can hit then thats another fk up. And they also need to send them a sht load of missiles before Trump gets in
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Just a nitpick: These are no long range missiles. Typically missiles were classified as Short/Intermediate/Long and everything Ukraine has got falls under the short range category and would only allow to strike border regions. If you want to call it a long range artillery missile that would probably be fine (as artillery has tactical purposes and for an artillery rocket system ATACMS is indeed a long range solution).

Point is, nobody supplied Ukraine with long range weapons. Everybody who calls it that is just pretending that the West is doing more than it actually is.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Why only allow long range missiles now? Yeah its a good thing but its about 2 years late. And if there are restrictions to which areas of Russia they can hit then thats another fk up. And they also need to send them a sht load of missiles before Trump gets in
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It's a "feck you" gift to the incoming Trump administration and an attempt to put it in the most uncomfortable possible position come January, rather than a genuine attempt to help Ukraine.

Too little, too late and as you rightly pointed out, why now (right after the elections) when it was clear for months that the AFU was on the back foot? I genuinely think that the Biden's administration intention never really was to support Ukraine and more about bleeding out Russia, which it succeeded to do, to an extent.

This "authorization" will also not replace the missing boots on the ground. Just like the much flaunted five or so F-16s actually flying (or not) in the Ukranian skies, it's a PR stunt that will most likely have little effect on the battlefield and the outcome of the war.
 
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stefan92 said:
Just a nitpick: These are no long range missiles. Typically missiles were classified as Short/Intermediate/Long and everything Ukraine has got falls under the short range category and would only allow to strike border regions. If you want to call it a long range artillery missile that would probably be fine (as artillery has tactical purposes and for an artillery rocket system ATACMS is indeed a long range solution).

Point is, nobody supplied Ukraine with long range weapons. Everybody who calls it that is just pretending that the West is doing more than it actually is.
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Good point.
 
Buster15 said:
Good. Even if it is half those figures, it will be hurting the average russian people.
Nevertheless, the average Ukrainian will be hurting more.
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I don't like this mentality.

It's not good - whilst it does put pressure on the Russian State, it's people like Harms who suffer who have nothing and want nothing to do with this war. And the Russian state apparatus gives zero fecks about the average person. It's one of those things where whilst principally sanctions work, there is a huge hit on the person.
 
The previous news reports regarding permission for US/France missile strikes within Russia were indeed misinformed:



So for now the only known confirmation has been permission for ATACMs strikes in Kursk.
 
Max_United said:
Unfortunately, the usage of words like “implode” or “crumble” with regards to Russian economy is wishful thinking. Many people in the West are very eager to bring up 1917 or 1991 but today’s Russia is nothing like that. Also all the numbers cited in the tweet are 2x worse in, say, Turkey for multiple years now - and hardly anyone is expecting a collapse there.

The reality is that Russia (for all its undeniable economic problems) has had 25 years of largely very responsible monetary and fiscal policies under Putin. It has virtually no debt, it has a sizeable rainy day fund still. Its central bank, finance ministry etc have been run by people who are reasonably competent and aware of best practices applied in the west. The head of the central bank who has been very respected globally is still there etc. And Putin is smart enough unfortunately to not interfere (unlike etc Erdogan).

Plus for all of the brain drain Russia still has a decent human capital and a quite vibrant private sector (which is also instrumental in reducing the sanctions impact, along with the fact that Russia has enough countries to trade with and skirt sanctions by importing western goods through third countries etc). In general, over the last three decades of being relatively open to the world there has been a lot of importing of (mostly western) know how with regards to conducting of business, management practices etc etc - much of that did not vanish overnight.

As much as it is easy to paint the picture of a poor and badly run country under a bloody dictator in your mind, in fact Russia is a lot lot better place to live in for an average citizen than it was 20-25 years ago (unless you go to war I guess). And that comes from someone who honestly would not mind Russia’s collapse as it would give my native country (Belarus) a chance for the democratic future. But you have to adequately see the reality still.

Yes, the political system, corruption, bad demographics and labour force reduction due to immigration and war will have significant consequences and the current economic growth in Russia is likely to end quite soon. But it will be followed by stagnation, not any sort of free fall. If you expect food shortages or deep recession with a big reduction in living standards - you will be disappointed.

Unless Russia engages in a full-scale military confrontation with the West (which it is likely to eventually lose due to being a lot weaker economically as one of the key factors), I cannot see anything overly dramatic there in terms of an acute economic downturn. And I really hope to be wrong.
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Spot on. There has been too much wishful thinking from many journalists in this conflict from the get go. From speculations about Putin's health, imminent coup de etat's, military incompetence and now a fervent wish for an imploding Russian economy.

While Russia is obviously in a lot of trouble militarily, politically, economically and demographically, none of it is going to force drastic change in the near future. They can keep going a couple of more years by sending their young men into the meatgrinder and making do by skirting sanctions and selling their raw materials/technology to countries outside the West.
 
RoyH1 said:
selling their raw materials/technology to countries outside the West.
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They're still selling to the west in huge quantities, they're just using neighboring countries as proxies for this.
 
Just read North Korea is supplying Russia with further artillery. What do we make of that? Is that weaponry state of the art (I guess not), could this mean Russia is finally running out of ammo after having drained their storages after years of producing less than they use? So, in essence an act of desperation?
 
RoyH1 said:
Spot on. There has been too much wishful thinking from many journalists in this conflict from the get go. From speculations about Putin's health, imminent coup de etat's, military incompetence and now a fervent wish for an imploding Russian economy.

While Russia is obviously in a lot of trouble militarily, politically, economically and demographically, none of it is going to force drastic change in the near future. They can keep going a couple of more years by sending their young men into the meatgrinder and making do by skirting sanctions and selling their raw materials/technology to countries outside the West.
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I don't know about that. Obviously the reports that Russia would implode fairly quickly have been wrong but it's not as if 2.5 years is an extraordinary long time for such a war to run and if the inflation rates for food that were quoted a bit higher up on this page are anything to go by, that's quite impactful I imagine. Even if the Russian population is used to make due, people are getting used to better living standards quicker than worsening conditions.

And from a purely logical standpoint, Russia is investing so much workforce into war stuff that creates no economic value at all on top of losing human capital in the six digit range, this has top have severe consequences for the population. And this is not even factoring in the sanctions.
 
Zehner said:
Just read North Korea is supplying Russia with further artillery. What do we make of that? Is that weaponry state of the art (I guess not), could this mean Russia is finally running out of ammo after having drained their storages after years of producing less than they use? So, in essence an act of desperation?
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It definitely is true that Russia is emptying their storage sites and they lack a very specific thing after all: long range artillery. The usual 152mm systems are inferior in range to NATO 155mm systems (which now includes the new Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana as well which by now should be the most used 155mm in action). Only the 2S7 Pion (203mm calibre) is comparable in that regard, but Russia doesn't have many systems (and never did) of that kind.

And this range difference matters a lot. In positions where Ukraine has the ability to do proper counter battery fire (which are limited because radars for that are rare) 155mm can just pick off Russian 152mm artillery from a safe distance, because the Russians can't reach them with their 152mm guns. Ukrainian artillery was firing from static positions because they simply could afford to. Which caused problems for some systems that just weren't designed for that kind of static fire (like the Panzerhaubitze 2000 which really focused on its shoot and scoot ability - in Ukraine it became shoot and shoot). Russia has found other means to fight back against Ukrainian artillery (notably the Lancet drones and similar solutions), but still the fact remains that there is an about 10km deep area behind the front where Russian artillery can't attack Ukrainian artillery but is in range to be attacked by them - except where they can use the 2S7.

Now North Korea is sending their 170mm Koksan artillery which is superior to Russian 155mm and closer to their 203mm in range (the 203mm grenades still pack more punch, but with low accuracy you have to do multiple shots anyways, so that's not so important). For comparison the last source I found mentions that Russia had 315 2S7 operational at the beginning of 2023 (for the whole Russian army!), meanwhile 50 Koksan are allegedly now in Kursk. Depending on how things developed and how they are spread I think it's safe to assume that no more than 200 2S7 are in front duty at the moment. North Korea just increased Russian long range artillery by 25% and just looking at Kursk probably more than doubled it (but those are my assumptions based on the numbers I could find).
 
stefan92 said:
It definitely is true that Russia is emptying their storage sites and they lack a very specific thing after all: long range artillery. The usual 152mm systems are inferior in range to NATO 155mm systems (which now includes the new Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana as well which by now should be the most used 155mm in action). Only the 2S7 Pion (203mm calibre) is comparable in that regard, but Russia doesn't have many systems (and never did) of that kind.

And this range difference matters a lot. In positions where Ukraine has the ability to do proper counter battery fire (which are limited because radars for that are rare) 155mm can just pick off Russian 152mm artillery from a safe distance, because the Russians can't reach them with their 152mm guns. Ukrainian artillery was firing from static positions because they simply could afford to. Which caused problems for some systems that just weren't designed for that kind of static fire (like the Panzerhaubitze 2000 which really focused on its shoot and scoot ability - in Ukraine it became shoot and shoot). Russia has found other means to fight back against Ukrainian artillery (notably the Lancet drones and similar solutions), but still the fact remains that there is an about 10km deep area behind the front where Russian artillery can't attack Ukrainian artillery but is in range to be attacked by them - except where they can use the 2S7.

Now North Korea is sending their 170mm Koksan artillery which is superior to Russian 155mm and closer to their 203mm in range (the 203mm grenades still pack more punch, but with low accuracy you have to do multiple shots anyways, so that's not so important). For comparison the last source I found mentions that Russia had 315 2S7 operational at the beginning of 2023 (for the whole Russian army!), meanwhile 50 Koksan are allegedly now in Kursk. Depending on how things developed and how they are spread I think it's safe to assume that no more than 200 2S7 are in front duty at the moment. North Korea just increased Russian long range artillery by 25% and just looking at Kursk probably more than doubled it (but those are my assumptions based on the numbers I could find).
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Thanks a lot, that shed some light on it. A 25% increase in long range artillery seems very significant but I wonder how the absolute comparison does look like. I mean, I'm no military expert but I imagine there is a huge difference between +25% on a far too small number to begin with and +25% in a roughly even situation. If Russia now has 250 of those systems available, are they outnumbering Ukraine's now? And is there any information how many more NK could contribute?
 
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