Strike in Odesa.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I don't know anything for sure, but as I see it there should be a roughly equal number of this kind of long range artillery on each side (203mm/155mm for Ukraine and 203mm/170mm for Russia), but far superior numbers in 152mm for Russia, as well as even smaller systems (including Russian tanks that fulfill a second role as auxiliary light artillery - something Western tanks were never considered and equipped for). So in itself it is not a game changer, but when concentrated locally (like now in Kursk) it surely will have an impact.
Regarding potential numbers it's probably difficult to get exact data, but North Korea definitely has one of the largest artillery troops in the world, they have thousands of systems, both guns and missile artillery. And actually a lot of them might be not really needed anymore by North Korea, so might be available to be effectively sold to Russia. In past decades NK had stationed a lot of artillery on the border, especially around Seoul, to guarantee some kind of MAD-doctrine of their own, just by artillery. In case of war, they would have been able to completely destroy Seoul in some minutes by using conventional artillery fire. But now they have the nuclear option and don't need their artillery for that role, so they can move systems away from Seoul.
So right now NK has numbers and Russia has technology NK doesn't have, especially around nuclear armament. It could prove smart business for NK to send their old junk to Ukraine and in return improve the quality of their first strike capabilities (and second - think of nuclear submarines), which frees more numbers to be send away to Ukraine...
Inflation rate quoted was a cherry-picked number for a single product. You could easily find and cherry-pick comparable numbers for single products in many (if not most) European countries in a post-covid inflationary period.
The general inflation in Russia is about 9%. A recent survey of consumer inflation expectations came at 13%. At the same time, the wages are growing at a faster rate (so that real wages are increasing - by like 8-9% on annual basis). Those numbers are nothing unusual for Russia historically and a lot better than in the 90s.
Yes, it is driven by war economy and labor shortages, and yes, the wages growth will likely stop in the coming years as war-induced economic growth reaches its limits.
But Russia’s economy basically mostly stagnated for more than a decade now anyway. The problem is that it has been stagnating on a very high level of living standards and economic efficiency compared to Russia’s history.
Not a super high bar and of course not enough to have any chance in winning an all-out conflict with the west. But alas possibly enough to eventually win a war of attrition with Ukraine having lukewarm military support from the west.
We can hope that Either the west wakes up (unlikely) or putin dies and someone more pragmatic ageees to freeze the conflict and does not care about the rest of Ukraine fully integrating with the west (unlikely that ceding territories would be possible even by his successor). Other realistic scenarios are grim. But I will be all over the moon if Russia suddenly and spectacularly collapses somehow.
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It seems that the only fiber optic connecting Finland to central europe has been cut
That's really funny. Also, in Feb 2022, the month Russia invaded, the interest rate was already 20 %. Now it's 21. What a tweet.
They had hyper-inflation for a lot of the 90's of over 200% too, so they're nothing if not resilient.
Now think about how much wealthier it probably made some people who are profiting off the production of said weapons.
Sauce?
Time to invest more in protecting them it looks like. How long does a cable like that take to replace/repair?
Article says between 5 and 15 days to repair.
Zelenskiy's so far been as diplomatic as he can be but both Yermak (his chief of staff) and Podolyak (his main adviser) are a little more blunt about still having no clue if they are or aren't allowed to use the ATACMS on Russian territory.
You'd think the whole "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" credo would have meant they were informed about this before the New York Times were, but I guess not. Almost a full day after the story was "leaked" (don't make me laugh) to the press and MPs in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada are currently left having to publicy ask the Biden Admin via Twitter if the story is true.
Edit: and just as I posted that, the State Department spokesman Matt Miller has declined to say whether Biden has given permission.
This has Jake Sullivan Special written all over it. Give it 24 hours or so to gauge international reaction before formally announcing it. Probably should've let Ukraine in on the plan first, but why start now? That may just get their hopes up that you actually have a coherent strategy.
Edit 2: sums up my thoughts -
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-approves-long-range-missiles/
It is, in its strategic confusion and tactical myopia, the tragic last bang of a US Ukraine policy that habitually prioritized “doing something” in the short to medium term over articulating and pursuing a credible endgame.
You'd think the whole "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" credo would have meant they were informed about this before the New York Times were, but I guess not. Almost a full day after the story was "leaked" (don't make me laugh) to the press and MPs in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada are currently left having to publicy ask the Biden Admin via Twitter if the story is true.
Edit: and just as I posted that, the State Department spokesman Matt Miller has declined to say whether Biden has given permission.
This has Jake Sullivan Special written all over it. Give it 24 hours or so to gauge international reaction before formally announcing it. Probably should've let Ukraine in on the plan first, but why start now? That may just get their hopes up that you actually have a coherent strategy.
Edit 2: sums up my thoughts -
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-approves-long-range-missiles/
It is, in its strategic confusion and tactical myopia, the tragic last bang of a US Ukraine policy that habitually prioritized “doing something” in the short to medium term over articulating and pursuing a credible endgame.
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I feel like you don't really understand the situation on the ground. The official general inflation number doesn't mean anything for, well, general population — the price of pretty much everything has skyrocketed over the past 2 years and it keeps flying up at an alarming rate. Regardless of whenever it's some hi-tech stuff which is understandable given the sanctions or basic food.
Here's the price growth in percentages from 2021 to 2024 (you don't even need to read Russian as products themselves don't matter, it's the same situation for everything, just look at the %):
This is from this BBC article, maybe they've have an English translation.
Small and medium-sized privately owned businesses are properly fecked unless they're directly benefitting from war economy. The key rate (a % at which Bank of Russia gives money to commercial banks) is now a staggering 21% per year... and commercial banks themselves obviously add some % on top of it, so realistically you're looking at something closer to 30% if you need to borrow any credit for expanding/sustaining the business.
The average wage growth is another thing that happens mostly on paper and is more or less stimulated by very few areas of production, mostly war-related. Military supplies, food etc. — there's a huge shortage of manpower with many working-class men going to war itself, willingly or not. Then there's a ridiculous cash influx of, well, military personnel — you get, I think, something close to 250k rubles per month (when in some regions you'd be contempt with a monthly salary of 30-40k), not to mention the signing-on bonus that also counts into statistics. And something like IT where the personnel is really depleted (IT people usually have the means and the finances to flee the country if they feel the need to) so there's a shortage of competent workers around... and with it being such a profitable sphere, their salary has reflected that change.
Will it realistically cause an outrage? Probably not, people have tolerated worse. But the economical situation is not normal, it's pretty dire.
What's happening with all these undersea cables being severed. Musk going to swoop in with starlink I bet. This whole thing reeks. Anyone more in the know?
Who knows. Is there anything that doesn't reek...no...have a an insane stench about it these days? I'm not ready for another 4 years of continued shenanigans.
This is such an incorrect and bullshit take that keeps getting spread.
All the big weapons contractors outside of Lockheed are not even profitable or barely profitable.
Take for example Raytheon, something stupid like a 4% operating profit.
Boeing is taking huge losses on the KC and AF1
GD is at 7.8%
Northrop is doing slightly better at 10%
Newport News, largest drydock in the US, isn't profitable.
This is a huge problem that the DoD basically are squeezing the contractors so tight, bids aren't even being made for requirements anymore because they simply are not profitable.
Yet we get dumbass takes like "weapons contractors are raking in the riches"
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Angry much?
I am a dumbass with more knowledge about this topic than you ll ever have but thanks for playing and reading some articles or ChatGPT. Seriously though, chill out.
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Are you getting your info from somewhere? You almost sound like you know what you're talking about, with some half-truths, but the actual economists spending time analysing every bit of data available on the Russian economy are reaching a very different conclusion.
The sizable rainy day fund may very well be empty one month from now, when the central bank confirms how it is funding this years' deficit, which is looking about the size of their remaining funds in the pot.
It has virtually no debt? Well here's the thing... They CAN'T raise debt, nobody outside of Russia is nuts enough to give them a loan for obvious reasons and now their domestic bond market appears to be dead. That's based on data that has to be made public, as its ultimately the public that buy them and fund the government. I'm no economist but I believe the technical term for a country running an ever worsening deficit, that is unable to raise any debt, is fecked (with a U).
Russian banks aren't taking short term bonds at 21% or so return, which they'd normally sell on for easy money. Either everyone has run out of cash or they know the rate of inflation well surpasses that level and isn't the Kremlin's officially published 9%.
We could then get into the state of Russian businesses, which as harms mentions, does not look good. Reportedly over half of existing commercial loans in Russia are variable to the key rate, so instantly fecked for anyone not profiting from the war economy. The construction industry is looking like the first to implode. New home/building projects are approaching zero.
There are ways to keep the economy ticking over for sure, but without affecting the core Russian people? Putin has done everything possible up to now to shelter the major cities from his war. They are now beginning to feel the effects however, this is where the pressure starts piling on him. There comes a point where the cost of doing nothing outweighs what I'm sure is a very high cost of doing something.
Unfortunately, I'm fully expecting Trump's first priority will be to unlock whatever frozen Russian funds he can.
Using my Google translate app...I feel like you don't really understand the situation on the ground. The official general inflation number doesn't mean anything for, well, general population — the price of pretty much everything has skyrocketed over the past 2 years and it keeps flying up at an alarming rate. Regardless of whenever it's some hi-tech stuff which is understandable given the sanctions or basic food.
Here's the price growth in percentages from 2021 to 2024 (you don't even need to read Russian as products themselves don't matter, it's the same situation for everything, just look at the %):
This is from this BBC article, maybe they've have an English translation.
Small and medium-sized privately owned businesses are properly fecked unless they're directly benefitting from war economy. The key rate (a % at which Bank of Russia gives money to commercial banks) is now a staggering 21% per year... and commercial banks themselves obviously add some % on top of it, so realistically you're looking at something closer to 30% if you need to borrow any credit for expanding/sustaining the business.
The average wage growth is another thing that happens mostly on paper and is more or less stimulated by very few areas of production, mostly war-related. Military supplies, food etc. — there's a huge shortage of manpower with many working-class men going to war itself, willingly or not. Then there's a ridiculous cash influx of, well, military personnel — you get, I think, something close to 250k rubles per month (when in some regions you'd be contempt with a monthly salary of 30-40k), not to mention the signing-on bonus that also counts into statistics. And something like IT where the personnel is really depleted (IT people usually have the means and the finances to flee the country if they feel the need to) so there's a shortage of competent workers around... and with it being such a profitable sphere, their salary has reflected that change.
Will it realistically cause an outrage? Probably not, people have tolerated worse. But the economical situation is not normal, it's pretty dire.
Here's the price growth in percentages from 2021 to 2024 (you don't even need to read Russian as
How food prices have changed
from BBC procurement
The most expensive goods, price increase in 2024 to 2021,%
Bananas 108
cucumbers 95
Zucchini 85
Pear 82
Garlic 70
Bar "Rotfront" 69
Ketchup 67
Tangerines 63
Milk 58
Stew 49
Marshmallow "Sharmel" 40
Eggs 38
Source: BBC calculations based on purchases in Pyaterochka stores in 2021 and 2024
Not to be that guy, but I've worked in NATO commands, MoD for 15 years and I'm currently a liaison officer with the Pentagon.
I'm pissed because the west is at critical juncture where procurement on key pacific platforms is fecked, shipbuilding is at a historical slump, and military contractors simply aren't getting worthwhile contracts to actually have the funding required to sustain R&D. All this because of prehistoric standards of procurement (That, thankfully, have been somewhat recognised and changed), budgets are insanely low and then you have people like yourself still banging on about how apparently the contractors are just there raking in the money when they are not.
There's no investment in shipbuilding, the Jones Act needs to go, the drydocks are being maintained on private money rather than public spending and companies like Raytheon are focusing more on foreign sales with specifically designated systems like PAC-2 GEM-T because American contracts just don't cut it anymore. Don't even get me started on the state of European procurement.
I'm not going to chill out when you parrot nonsense and then claim I quote chatGPT or something. The Western worlds security is at risk and the things you say contribute negatively towards the perception and makes things even worse if more and more people start believing the shit.
@Redplane
Not sure if you saw from a month or so ago - The primary big contractors all just announced that they have ceased research on both NGAD-AF and NGAD (FA-XX) variants because the Pentagon did not have the money for FY-25 and even FY-24 to fund these research items and that they couldn't actually afford to do it without that funding.
How is that acceptable?
How is it acceptable that the largest defense contractors, researching and building quite possibly the most important bit of hardware for the next five decades, are unable to be given proper contracts to actually research it? It's clinical insanity.
Leaks literally have said it's because the Pentagon are having to choose between funding building more Virginia's and having funding for NGAD.
Clearly, the "profits" of the contracts are the issue here...
Austin literally had to beg congress in a letter for more money so this does not have to happen:
Not sure if you saw from a month or so ago - The primary big contractors all just announced that they have ceased research on both NGAD-AF and NGAD (FA-XX) variants because the Pentagon did not have the money for FY-25 and even FY-24 to fund these research items and that they couldn't actually afford to do it without that funding.
How is that acceptable?
How is it acceptable that the largest defense contractors, researching and building quite possibly the most important bit of hardware for the next five decades, are unable to be given proper contracts to actually research it? It's clinical insanity.
Leaks literally have said it's because the Pentagon are having to choose between funding building more Virginia's and having funding for NGAD.
Clearly, the "profits" of the contracts are the issue here...
Austin literally had to beg congress in a letter for more money so this does not have to happen:
The reason why I basically implied you are overreacting to my comment because you're assuming I was talking about US defense contracts.
Your provided data and articles are interesting for sure and I agree with you that US defense contracts in this case are not running up the tab as might have happened in other cases. However, under a Trump administration I expect a lot more privateering to happen and that in some ways is far more concerning that the ones you mentioned staying afloat.
My original comment though was in response to a comment that contained statistics on the far greater number of artillery used by Russia. You jumped to the conclusion I was talking about what the West is providing to Ukraine - what I meant instead is to emphasize the sheer number of weaponry being used across the board, and more interestingly how Russia is getting its supply lines in particular and in return the supplies Russia has likely been providing in return to locations in the middle east and Asia, as well as parts of S America and the African continent. That is coming from places that aren't just doing it because they are doing it for the good of the world.
I have little faith the West will continue to provide the arms Ukraine needs in order to keep up with the machine if faces on the other side, especially if the US bows out. I know many in the MAGA Camp aren't willing to look at it this way - but had the previous administration not facilitated the near total unpreparedness for aggressive moves by Russia and it had funneled defense spending in the right pots, we probably wouldn't have been where we are today.
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Has Putin just had the West’s pants down again with his new Nuclear Doctrine?
Talk of US giving the green light for Ukraine to use American long range missile’s on Russian soil
So Putin says no thanks, changes his Nuclear Doctrine saying that Russia could consider using nuclear weapons if it is subject to a conventional missile assault on it supported by a nuclear power ie the US
Well that’s the end of that option then
Talk of US giving the green light for Ukraine to use American long range missile’s on Russian soil
So Putin says no thanks, changes his Nuclear Doctrine saying that Russia could consider using nuclear weapons if it is subject to a conventional missile assault on it supported by a nuclear power ie the US
Well that’s the end of that option then
I doubt the US would give Ukraine the "go" if they intelligence agencies wouldn't assure them that Putin is bluffing.
Moreover, I highly doubt Putin would use nuclear weapons now when Trump will be inaugurated in two months time. The whole purpose of his misinformation campaigns was to get a pro-Russia president into the white house, he's not going to start a nuclear war shortly before he achieves his goal. Putin dropping a nuke would make it practically impossible for Trump to support Russia by any means, IMO. He'll rather bank on Trump revoking the green light to use long range missile's in Russia once he is in charge.
As Zelenskyy said, let the missiles do the talking.
Fantastic news if true that it was an ATACMS strike. Bryansk is a border region to Kursk but the restrictions are then clearly not just on NK troops within Kursk, which would have been a ridiculous policy and in general a poor use of ATACMS.
Russia says Ukraine has fired US-supplied long-range missiles into the country, a day after Washington gave its permission for such attacks.
Ukraine used the Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) in a strike on Russia's Bryansk region this morning, the ministry of defence in Moscow said.
Five missiles were shot down and one damaged, with its fragments causing a fire at a military facility in the region, it said in a statement.
Ukraine used the Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) in a strike on Russia's Bryansk region this morning, the ministry of defence in Moscow said.
Five missiles were shot down and one damaged, with its fragments causing a fire at a military facility in the region, it said in a statement.
Just the poor luck of the Russians. They always manage to shoot down incoming missiles and drones, but just unluckily fragments always cause fire, damage and massive explosions on the ground...
Anyone else keep seeing the magat spin online that Biden is trying to create ww3 by allowing these missiles to hit Russia and that the left wants more war, while of course Trump just wants peace for all and certainly isn’t just Putin’s spunkpuppet?
Any logical response gets met with “why should America police the world?”, as if everything happens in a vacuum and turning a blind eye would bode well for the US.
Any logical response gets met with “why should America police the world?”, as if everything happens in a vacuum and turning a blind eye would bode well for the US.
So how concerned should we be now that they've used US rockets?
Are Russia just pandering with their threats?
Are Russia just pandering with their threats?
Unless you live in Ukraine you shouldn’t be concerned at all
Yes. This is a beautiful list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Most crossed "red lines" had no consequences at all, and even most listed consequences are just words, no actions.
The problem here is if the Ukrainians (the Nazi ones) decide to strike Moscow and I'm sure 100% Kyiv would be gone and then we will see if Europe (NATO) and US responds with nuclear as well and then no more RedCafe for us because the Northern Hemisphere would be destroyed and huge parts of the Southern Hemisphere would be gradually destroyed when the radiation, climate changes hits them.
What the feck is going on in here? 
So you're a glass half-full kinda guy?
You obviously missed that the Ukrainians already did that multiple times (just sending you a source for the most recent attack): https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...orces-closure-two-moscow-airports-2024-11-10/
Nice to see a strategic update from Barros on day 1000 of this war.