Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VeevaVee said:
Anyone else keep seeing the magat spin online that Biden is trying to create ww3 by allowing these missiles to hit Russia and that the left wants more war, while of course Trump just wants peace for all and certainly isn’t just Putin’s spunkpuppet?

Any logical response gets met with “why should America police the world?”, as if everything happens in a vacuum and turning a blind eye would bode well for the US.
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Yep, this is apparently a major escalation that threatens Trumps peace talks and risks spiraling into attacks on NATO/WW3/etc. Here is Mike Waltz commenting pretty much that:



Which is not in line with what he said earlier in the war, this is an interview from April 2022 (timestamped at 2:20)



Where he encourages cross-border attacks using the weapons that have been given to Ukraine and not to let fear of escalation drive their policy.
 
What does everyone think about the Nuclear Doctrine changes by Putin? More scare tactics?

It would be very very bad for Russia to use Nuclear weapons and the response in the West would be pretty dramatic.
 
Ahmer Baig said:
Russia says Ukraine has fired US-supplied long-range missiles into the country, a day after Washington gave its permission for such attacks.

Ukraine used the Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) in a strike on Russia's Bryansk region this morning, the ministry of defence in Moscow said.

Five missiles were shot down and one damaged, with its fragments causing a fire at a military facility in the region, it said in a statement.
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What article is this from?
 
barros said:
The problem here is if the Ukrainians (the Nazi ones) decide to strike Moscow and I'm sure 100% Kyiv would be gone and then we will see if Europe (NATO) and US responds with nuclear as well and then no more RedCafe for us because the Northern Hemisphere would be destroyed and huge parts of the Southern Hemisphere would be gradually destroyed when the radiation, climate changes hits them.
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Well, at least you believe in climate change now. We're making progress.
 
Mavs said:
Yep, this is apparently a major escalation that threatens Trumps peace talks and risks spiraling into attacks on NATO/WW3/etc. Here is Mike Waltz commenting pretty much that:



Which is not in line with what he said earlier in the war, this is an interview from April 2022 (timestamped at 2:20)



Where he encourages cross-border attacks using the weapons that have been given to Ukraine and not to let fear of escalation drive their policy.
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It's all a distraction of course because they know Biden basically has no choice because who knows what all Trump is going to give to his Russian handlers. I'm not opposed to ending the conflict obviously but if the next administration basically gives into Russia's demands, even some of them - how is that any different from giving into terrorists which we apparently don't negotiate with as we so often like to say.

What's really sad is that these guys are only interested in what makes Trump look good and bad. Period. Where were the Rs when Afghanistan and Iraq were bombed into oblivion.
 
Russia starts a war and kills civilians daily in ukraine. But the escalation never comes from them. Talk about narratives...
 
Red Rash said:
What does everyone think about the Nuclear Doctrine changes by Putin? More scare tactics?

It would be very very bad for Russia to use Nuclear weapons and the response in the West would be pretty dramatic.
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Yes. It's not as if he's not a dictator with unlimited power who actually needs to change the procedure in case he actually decided to use it.

And if I'm wrong, no one's gonna care anyway. Nuclear winter, baby!
 
barros said:
The problem here is if the Ukrainians (the Nazi ones) decide to strike Moscow and I'm sure 100% Kyiv would be gone and then we will see if Europe (NATO) and US responds with nuclear as well and then no more RedCafe for us because the Northern Hemisphere would be destroyed and huge parts of the Southern Hemisphere would be gradually destroyed when the radiation, climate changes hits them.
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Hopefully Euro 2016 was a fluke...
 
Red Rash said:
What does everyone think about the Nuclear Doctrine changes by Putin? More scare tactics?

It would be very very bad for Russia to use Nuclear weapons and the response in the West would be pretty dramatic.
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We began ignoring them a couple years ago. The public statements, the Kremlin TV nonsense, the driving missiles up and down roads for the cameras, the alleged stationing in Belarus, the doctrine changes, etc, etc, etc. Its all the same.

This question always gets asked whenever they throw the next round of threats out, most people are like "must be another Tuesday", then someone will be like "yeh BUT... this time it might be different, its a 'doctine change'! omg!". No, its all the same.
 
Madness how N Korea are essentially invading a European country and everybody is just shrugging their shoulders. Russia threatening a nuclear response to Ukraines use of American missiles. It’s starting to escalate and with trump coming in I’m not sure it’s going to be calmed anytime soon.
 
“The whole idea was to maybe gain some political leverage in potential negotiations, but militarily to draw the Russian forces away from the Donbas in order to liberate Kursk. And what we're seeing instead is that Ukrainian units are tied down there.”
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Castia said:
Madness how N Korea are essentially invading a European country and everybody is just shrugging their shoulders. Russia threatening a nuclear response to Ukraines use of American missiles. It’s starting to escalate and with trump coming in I’m not sure it’s going to be calmed anytime soon.
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It will be calmed down because Trump will salute another N Korean general, write love letters to Kim Yung Un, and have off the record meetings with Trump while looking like a deer in the headlights. Like last time. Then gives em what they want and poof problem "solved".
 
GcynG8dXsAA6lQa
 
There's a palpable sense of both parts wanting to be done with this soon and they're in the last throes of positioning themselves militarily before a ceasefire. If Kyiv is forced by Trump's hand to concede a lot of land, then Ukraine must get significant political and economic concessions from the West in writing. The guarantees from Russia are meaningless.
 
Red Rash said:
What does everyone think about the Nuclear Doctrine changes by Putin? More scare tactics?

It would be very very bad for Russia to use Nuclear weapons and the response in the West would be pretty dramatic.
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I'm by no meand a geopolitical expert but it would be completely pointless from Putin to use nuclear weapons now that he finally got what he wanted as Trump was elected president. So mindgames I'd say. The Biden administration probably wants to bring Ukraine in a more favorable bargaining position in the likely case Trump forces them to 'make a deal' with the Russians.
 
RoyH1 said:
There's a palpable sense of both parts wanting to be done with this soon and they're in the last throes of positioning themselves militarily before a ceasefire. If Kyiv is forced by Trump's hand to concede a lot of land, then Ukraine must get significant political and economic concessions from the West in writing. The guarantees from Russia are meaningless.
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As is anything "guaranteed" by Trump.
 
RoyH1 said:
There's a palpable sense of both parts wanting to be done with this soon and they're in the last throes of positioning themselves militarily before a ceasefire. If Kyiv is forced by Trump's hand to concede a lot of land, then Ukraine must get significant political and economic concessions from the West in writing. The guarantees from Russia are meaningless.
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Has Ukraine ever given the slightest bit of hint they would be interested in a ceasefire on Russias terms?

Trump/Putin will employ all the leverage they can to try and force something in Ukraine. Then they will try to pin all blame on Zelenskyy when he politely explains to them Ukraine ain’t surrendering, US support or not. Expect to see the full MAGA propaganda apparatus turn on Zelenskyy, then Trump will use him as the excuse why he’s doing loads of favours for Putin. Stopping supplies, releasing assets, intelligence sharing, starlink is a worry too, though I already worry about the data going through that isp…
 
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Simbo said:
Has Ukraine ever given the slightest bit of hint they would be interested in a ceasefire on Russias terms?

Trump/Putin will employ all the leverage they can to try and force something in Ukraine. Then they will try to pin all blame on Zelenskyy when he politely explains to them he ain’t surrendering Ukraine, US supplies or not. Expect to see the full MAGA propaganda apparatus turn on Zelenskyy, then Trump will use him as the excuse why he’s doing loads of favours for Putin. Stopping supplies, releasing assets, intelligence sharing, starling is a worry too, though I already worry about the data going through that isp…
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Good summary.
 
Mavs said:
Yep, this is apparently a major escalation that threatens Trumps peace talks and risks spiraling into attacks on NATO/WW3/etc. Here is Mike Waltz commenting pretty much that:



Which is not in line with what he said earlier in the war, this is an interview from April 2022 (timestamped at 2:20)



Where he encourages cross-border attacks using the weapons that have been given to Ukraine and not to let fear of escalation drive their policy.
Click to expand...


All of Trump's picks - Rubio, Waltz etc., have been modulating their Ukraine rhetoric to assuage Trump. They also have no clue as to what Trump will do next, so to preserve their jobs, aren't going to go too far off the reservation. Rubio and Waltz for sure, and possibly Hegseth, were pretty much on the Ukraine side of things before they were being considered for cabinet positions. But at least we know how they really feel when the political blinders are removed.
 
Raoul said:
All of Trump's picks - Rubio, Waltz etc., have been modulating their Ukraine rhetoric to assuage Trump. They also have no clue as to what Trump will do next, so to preserve their jobs, aren't going to go too far off the reservation. Rubio and Waltz for sure, and possibly Hegseth, were pretty much on the Ukraine side of things before they were being considered for cabinet positions. But at least we know how they really feel when the political blinders are removed.
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Yep I think you're right that they have no idea what Trumps actual plan will look like, or have very little faith that it will work - while Trump himself might believe that he can negotiate a deal, I don't think Waltz really believes a deal can be negotiated that works for both sides. These comments from him then feel more like pre-emptive excuses for when negotiations fall apart. And just going along with the narrative as you say.

VorZakone said:
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Great news.

Video of the strike:

 
Mavs said:
Yep I think you're right that they have no idea what Trumps actual plan will look like, or have very little faith that it will work - while Trump himself might believe that he can negotiate a deal, I don't think Waltz really believes a deal can be negotiated that works for both sides. These comments from him then feel more like pre-emptive excuses for when negotiations fall apart. And just going along with the narrative as you say.



Great news.

Video of the strike:

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I was of the opinion that Stormshadow was launched from a fighter jet (Tornado/Typhoon).
Does anyone know how Ukraine has used it
 
Buster15 said:
I was of the opinion that Stormshadow was launched from a fighter jet (Tornado/Typhoon).
Does anyone know how Ukraine has used it
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Like @stefan92 said they have modified Su-24 and Mig29 jets to carry the storm shadow missiles, this attack reportedly performed by 5 Su-24s and hitting an underground command post:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...shadow-cruise-missiles-at-russian-commanders/

According to one Russian blogger, Wednesday’s target was a command post where Russian—and potentially North Korean—officers directed the 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops attacking the 250-square-mile salient that 20,000 or more Ukrainian troops hold in Kursk. The devastating strike on officers and their staffs “resembles an execution of the defenseless,” the blogger moaned.

The strike may have involved a record five Ukrainian Su-24 bombers, each clutching a pair of the precision-guided missiles. Assisted by foreign experts, the Ukrainian air force modified many of its ex-Soviet Su-24s—dozens of which might still be in service, despite heavy losses—to launch Storm Shadows and similar French-made SCALP-EGs.
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the hea said:
Russia has fired a conventionally armed ICBM missile at Dnipro this morning.



Picture of re-entry vehicles coming down on the city.
Gc5WnMoXYAAAC8M
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I call bullshit on this. Launching an actual icmb will set off alarms in lots of places, somebody might interpret the intended target wrong, or the missile itself might get off course. Additionally I don't think they actually have conventional ordnance for these warheads - it doesn't make sense, the accuracy is rather low and the volume is limited, so it won't make any damage that way. Furthermore I don't think the re-entry would look like this , with solid traces.

Looks like some other type of munition, if real at all, the quality is below Minecraft
 
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