Yeah I understand why you won't expand. It's a completely sociopathic view of the world.
And the high horse reference is funny. What is it they say? Every accusation is projection?
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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Yeah I understand why you won't expand. It's a completely sociopathic view of the world.
And the high horse reference is funny. What is it they say? Every accusation is projection?
You missed my point, though I did ramble a bit tbh.
We've known for a very long time that Ukraine doesn't win this war by scrapping for every bit of land in bloody battles, they win when Russia implodes, or at least the armed forces collapse. They just need to keep destroying Russian men & material, keep piling on the pressure and not let up.
I look at a map of SE Ukraine and I just see a means toward that end. Its not like they are fighting to the last man in trenches dug in worthless fields. They are avoiding close infantry battles as much they can and killing from distance. Where they choose to hold, they hold, Vulhedar, Chasiv Yar, etc. If Russia wants to continue throwing men into the grinder for land that means nothing, Ukraine needs to take steps to ensure that continues. Seems pretty basic to me.
I've read two high profile articles the last two days by known pro-Ukrainian journalists portraying the doom and misery of Ukraine's plight in Donetsk, as Russia conquers another back garden or two. I'm starting to believe Ukraine might just be winning the information war right now.
This is either
a) Inaccurate and it wasn't neptunes fired
or
b) Really terrifying because Ukraine have managed to find a way to solve a problem the USN haven't been able to solve which is long range stand off strikes against moving targets without direct radar guidance.
or
c) Ukraine secretly have AWACS over the Black sea.
The ferry was moored for loading/unloading when it was hit, it wasn't moving.
Even so, they still need weapons-grade radar tracking.
Unless they just hoped the missile would get there in time before the ferry fecked off?
Also, no air defense at the port?
They probably had intelegence from the ground and knew when to fire. The ferry seems to have been fully loaded so she had most likely just arrived at port. It's not like it's the first time this has happened, both Ropuchas and private RO/RO ferries have been hit while in port before.
the fact that a semi-important commercial port has completely zero missile shield is somewhat startling to be honest.
It's very strange. From my understanding the Kavkaz-Kerch ferry line is one of the the main supply lines to Crimea so you would expect the ports to be protected.
Happy Independence Day!
Interesting detail about Ukrainian jamming also having affected themselves.
Reuters staff hit in strike on hotel in Ukraine's Kramatorsk
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/reuters-staff-hit-strike-hotel-ukraines-kramatorsk-2024-08-25/
Looks like another attack on infrastructure this morning.
Reports coming in that Ukranian forces are trying to enter Belgorod. Interesting development.
Belgorodskaya oblast’ =/= Belgorod.
I think particularly as this year was really Russia’s year to press home their advantage . I can’t believe that they’ll be able to plough in as much men and equipment in 2025 as they have done in 2024. Even if they have another round of conscription and get a few hundred thousand more men, can they really equip them and provide tanks and other armoured carriers at the current level of attrition? I’m sure Alfonso will have something to say but it seems unrealistic to me.
We don't really know -
If the satelitte images of the Russian boneyards are serviceable vehicles or vehicles that can quickly be put back into service - Yes, they have maintain operational tempo.
If they are not then, no, they will have to scale back hard and heavy next year.
Even if they do bring out all the shit from the boneyards, it'll be older obsolete stuff that whilst still being a danger, isn't as lethal and is more easily destroyed.
Predicting Russian equipment reserves and production is a zero-sum game at the moment and nobody knows, not even the Russians.
A few things over the last few days
-AFU is slowly but steadily advancing in the Kursk regions and there's not been much heavy resistance.
-Telegram reports of infighting, apparently a Russian unit attacked and destroyed a Kaydrovite unit, though not confirmed.
- Someone posted a picture of AFU using Iranian shells - how they acquired those is a mystery.
-
-Zelensky has claimed that Ukraine has developed its own in house tactical ballistic missile.
- THAAD really needs to be given to Ukraine at this point. Patriots are not designed to intercept high trajectory ballistic missiles.
- Saw an image floating around of Belrussian Units with "B" being painted on them moving to the Ukrainian border. That is worrying. Though no real chatter about Belarus' impeding involvement.
-AFU is slowly but steadily advancing in the Kursk regions and there's not been much heavy resistance.
-Telegram reports of infighting, apparently a Russian unit attacked and destroyed a Kaydrovite unit, though not confirmed.
- Someone posted a picture of AFU using Iranian shells - how they acquired those is a mystery.
-
-Zelensky has claimed that Ukraine has developed its own in house tactical ballistic missile.
- THAAD really needs to be given to Ukraine at this point. Patriots are not designed to intercept high trajectory ballistic missiles.
- Saw an image floating around of Belrussian Units with "B" being painted on them moving to the Ukrainian border. That is worrying. Though no real chatter about Belarus' impeding involvement.
A few things over the last few days
-AFU is slowly but steadily advancing in the Kursk regions and there's not been much heavy resistance.
-Telegram reports of infighting, apparently a Russian unit attacked and destroyed a Kaydrovite unit, though not confirmed.
- Someone posted a picture of AFU using Iranian shells - how they acquired those is a mystery.
-
-Zelensky has claimed that Ukraine has developed its own in house tactical ballistic missile.
- THAAD really needs to be given to Ukraine at this point. Patriots are not designed to intercept high trajectory ballistic missiles.
- Saw an image floating around of Belrussian Units with "B" being painted on them moving to the Ukrainian border. That is worrying. Though no real chatter about Belarus' impeding involvement.
Thanks for the update.
I'd imagine than any movement from Belarusian troops shouldn't be anymore than a diversion. The region north from Kyiv should be well defender after what happened in 2022 and I struggle to think in any army less motivated than them to go find out. Lukashenko will probably continue with his strategy of talking themselves out of the conflict.
CNN are saying it wasn't due to pilot error and an investigation is underway.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/29/europe/ukraine-f16-crashes-intl/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/29/europe/ukraine-f16-crashes-intl/index.html
I wouldn't necessarily be surprised about pilot error, maybe they still need more training with the F-16. Interested in the investigation's outcome.
"The Washington DC-based Institute for Study of War (ISW) in a Tuesday situation update said: “Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction amid reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from select areas southeast of Pokrovsk.”
"Some Ukrainian media outlets on Wednesday were openly critical of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) loss of Novohrodivka in 72 hours, compared with bitter AFU resistance in cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which cost the Kremlin months of time and thousands of casualties to capture"
"The high-profile Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov in a Wednesday editorial said Ukrainian defenses faced collapse: “The situation in the Pokrovsk sector is no longer critical, the situation is already catastrophic. Despite Zelensky’s promise, no decent fortifications were built there. Now there is a complete loss of control on the operational and tactical levels.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38085
"Some Ukrainian media outlets on Wednesday were openly critical of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) loss of Novohrodivka in 72 hours, compared with bitter AFU resistance in cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which cost the Kremlin months of time and thousands of casualties to capture"
"The high-profile Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov in a Wednesday editorial said Ukrainian defenses faced collapse: “The situation in the Pokrovsk sector is no longer critical, the situation is already catastrophic. Despite Zelensky’s promise, no decent fortifications were built there. Now there is a complete loss of control on the operational and tactical levels.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38085
I said when it started that it was a strategically confusing move. If its aim was to make Russia remove forces from the Pokrovsk offensive, as the usual gaggle of "experts" (Philips O'Brien, Ben Hodges, CNN's basket of
6 days ago, Zelenskiy - wary of another Zaluzhny situation, i.e a general who recognises what a moron he is - promoted Syrsky to a 4-star general, as gratitude for his "brilliant operation in Kursk". Yet another dumb PR-based move. You don't create generals 2 weeks into a reckless operation whose outcome is still far from known. The only reason you do this is for media attention ("Look how successful it's been!"). When those soldiers in Kursk are either routed or else forced to retreat having achieved nothing of value - the Kursk power plant was apparently the minimum goal, which isn't going to happen now - how's he going to explain the promotion? How's he even explaining it now, with countless videos doing the rounds of Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk pissed off at the Kursk move.
The other reason he's done this is to put pressure on Biden to ok his fantasy "victory plan" which he's going to 'deliver' to Biden next month (spoiler alert Volodymyr, the President of the United States doesn't get 'delivered' anything by the likes of you).
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crrlnl2vqe2o
He said that its success depends on Joe Biden okaying what is in the 'plan', which drew pushback from all 3 of the White House, State Department and Pentagon press teams. But this again is typical of how Zelenskiy operates. "It's not my fault if this doesn't succeed!" You don't launch a baffling operation into Russian territory without telling the US about it, only to then 6 weeks later say "Ok America, here's the plan, and if it doesn't work, it's Biden's fault". Especially when that 'plan' is asking for a bunch of stuff that is never going to happen (it doesn't take the strategic acumen of Philips O'Brien to guess the kind of delusional nonsense that will be in it).
Tangentially related, I read an article a few days ago on Responsible Statecraft about Emmanuel Macron. It's worth a read:
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/macron-troops-ukraine/
For those who can be forgiven for not remembering him, Emmanuel Macron is the president of France. Back in February, with elections looming, he went full Napoleon and started telling anyone who'd listen that he "wasn't against" sending French troops to Ukraine, and that Putin must not win, and that every option and weapon must be on the table, and on and on and on. And then, after the elections, he promptly disappeared off the face of the earth and hasn't mentioned Ukraine since. France has continued to be the major European country that does the least for Ukraine. Cynically using Ukraine to boost his polling turned out not to work. And the bone-deep bedrock conviction of every Western country on earth ("We are not going to war with Russia over Ukraine") remains in tact. Sure, they'll use the opportunity to "bleed Russia" (Lloyd Austin) for as long as Ukraine is content to be NATO's private mercenary army (yes, yes, I'm baiting the hyenas, I know), but fundamentally, they do not care what happens to Ukraine enough to do what would be required to have Ukraine win this war. This was true 2 and half years ago and it will remain true until Russia achieves the 4 aims of its 'SMO'. I said it back in 2016 and I repeated it in 2022: Ukraine will be sacrificed. Yes, some kind of 'Ukraine' will technically emerge from the war as "a free and sovereign nation" (that's the new stated aim of the Biden Admin by the way - they never even mention Ukraine "winning" as Ukraine has defined winning anymore), if 'free and independent' can mean 'saddled by crippling debt for generations and with 15 trillion dollars of its resources now under Russian control. But the cost of this war to Ukraine will be a functionally destroyed nation. And for spending 2 and half years calling for governments to relentlessly push for peace talks, people like me have been called 'Kremlin bots' and 'Putin sympathisers' and what have you. "You can't negotiate with Putin!" said strategic genius Jake Sullivan (have I mentioned Jake Sullivan is in my view the single dumbest political operative on the face of the earth, and I say that as someone who works for someone who has had several meetings with him) and Tony Blinken . The exact same people who are now saying that the best-case scenario for Ukraine is to put them in a position where they can negotiate with Putin. This is what happens when you have no coherent strategy*
*On that last point, back in May I made a post about how one of the stipulations of the 60 billion dollars for Ukraine was that the Biden Admin provide a strategy for the war to Congress by June 8th (because after 2 years of war they apparently still didn't have one). I posted a video of Lloyd Austin being asked by the House Armed Services Committee if he would guarantee to provide one, and he said he would. I said he wouldn't, because they very clearly had no strategy (that 'Nato' guy who everyone's enamoured with on here instantly called for me to be banned from the forum for posting Russian propaganda - apparently the on-camera words of the US Secretary of Defense is Russian propaganda).
Well guess what? The deadline came and went and no strategy was provided.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/biden-ukraine-war-strategy-congress-military-aid/
https://nypost.com/2024/06/10/us-ne...line-for-providing-strategic-plan-to-end-war/
Exactly as I predicted. And this is why Ukraine is being destroyed. Dumb 'experts' and 'analysts' armed to the teeth with a million bar charts and pie charts and graphs and stat tables and reams of weapons info, and absolutely no coherent strategy for Ukrainian victory and no fundamental understanding of Russia and its goals. All they can do now is deliberately misrepresent what Russia's goals are so they can claim Putin 'failed'.
Alright, I'll go back to casually lurking now. See you again in a month or so when Pokrovsk is the latest city to be in ruins while Zelenskiy continues to play his stupid PR games.
They're saying the F16 was downed in a friendly fire accident now.
Ukraine ‘shot down their own F-16 fighter jet killing ace pilot ‘Moonfish’ in friendly fire blunder with US missile’
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30165132/ukraine-fighter-jet-pilot-moonfish-patriot-missile/
Ukraine ‘shot down their own F-16 fighter jet killing ace pilot ‘Moonfish’ in friendly fire blunder with US missile’
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30165132/ukraine-fighter-jet-pilot-moonfish-patriot-missile/
If true what a mess.
Ukrainian air defenses are a mix of old Soviet era equipment, modern western equipment and systems that have been custom built from both western and Soviet parts. Expecting an iff system that works faultlessly with all these systems is a lot to ask for. If anything whats most surprising is that this doesn't happen more often.
Ugh, picture doing the rounds of a girl, or what’s left of her, sat on a park bench in Kharkiv, might just be the most horrific thing I’ve seen, and I thought I’d seen it all.