Or they simply want to funnel the Russians across there to pick them off?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I am doubtful that that would work out. When put in a position where they were forced to funnel equipment over a river either via boats or a bridge that the Ukrainian artillery was dialled in on in Cherson, the Russians chose to give up the position and move back over the river after bleeding the attacking Ukrainian forces for what they could. How they pulled out thousands of troops and decent percentages of their equipment in that particular move still remains their most (begrudgingly) impressive action in the war so far for me.
Now, on one side the Seym river sure isn't comparable to the final few kilometers of the Dnipro in how hard it is to cross otherwise, but on the other side there is also nothing of value to keep clinging onto the territory, so why would Russia keep funnelling troops and equipment into there and take what would probably be significant losses in the process. If those bridges go down, either all or most of them, I fully expect the Russians to give the area up (though not for free) and to establish the Seym river as the new frontline. It would be every bit as nasty to get over it and supply troops on the other side for Ukraine as it would be for Russia, and what Russia currently wants most is static frontlines in the region so that they can keep continuing their offensive on the eastern front with all they've got.
Yeah I'm mainly wondering if it will be different now it's in Russia and Putin might have to do something for political reasons.
I doubt it. Putin doesn't give a rat's arse about random civillians, Russian or otherwise, the loss off a handful villages more will barely even be noticed on the grand scale of things, especially when his armies can make advances in the east at the same time, and if he has to he'll just fire another general or two.
I would sigh but i'm not even surprised anymore.
I think Elon Musk is just a bored billionaire troll at this point, seeing what he can do to wind up as many people as possible.
I wonder if Kadyrov knows how farcical and mocked the cyber truck has become in the west. He probably thinks he's a living out some weird mad max cyber fantasy that will resonate with Tik Tokers outside Russia.
The video where it gets blown up by a drone will be fun.
The machine gun's probably the only bit of it that's been through any kind of quality control.
If that was the case, he wouldn't lose his shit over every situation where someone doesn't fawn over him.
They'll have to bring it to the frontline on a trailer or else the piece of junk will suffer critical failure before even making its way to the frontline.
On other news, Russia now requires teenagers in the occupied regions to sign up for DOSAAF at fourteen years of age. DOSAAF, ironically, stands for Volunteer Society for the Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy, and exists or has existed in a similar form in all former soviet states. It is both a propaganda vehicle aiming to "educate" the youth in whatever "patriotic" mindset the great leaders wish, and it prepares them for military service once they reach the eligible age.
On other news, Russia now requires teenagers in the occupied regions to sign up for DOSAAF at fourteen years of age. DOSAAF, ironically, stands for Volunteer Society for the Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy, and exists or has existed in a similar form in all former soviet states. It is both a propaganda vehicle aiming to "educate" the youth in whatever "patriotic" mindset the great leaders wish, and it prepares them for military service once they reach the eligible age.
Seems mildly relevant that Lukashenko is parting company from Putin on the "Nazis in Ukraine" narrative.
I’d leave 1 bridge operational, then when the Russians take the
I reckon my 2005 Golf is more suited as a weapons platform than the Cybertruck. Of course, my Golf is also about as likely to get into combat as Kadyrov.
Well, good news then for this plan of yours: Russia just lost the second bridge in the region. With the Zvannoe and Glushkovo bridges out of commission, that leaves only the bridge at Karyzh operational. Reports state that about 700-800 Russian paratroopers are holding the area, but I do not expect that they'd be stuck if and when Ukraine takes down the last bridge - the Seym river is relatively narrow and calm in the area, and should be easy to cross for those paratroopers if they would want to retreat.
On a related note, today's Perun video presentation is all about the Kursk offensive. Very much worth a watch, as his videos usually are.
Hmm. I’m undoubtedly reading way too much into it but could this be a precursor to Putin justifying ending the war (through a negotiated peace) by claiming one of the goals has been reached?
I’m my opinion as someone with no military or political experience…
Probably not.
He is likely able to sell even a hardline defeat as a victory to the Russian populace, so it seems like his lines in the sand for a negotiated settlement extend beyond just domestic gain.
Hearing rumours that the third and final bridge is also down. Nothing confirmed yet. The second bridge at Zvannoe looks like they could make it usable with a bridgelayer, but what's the point, it'll just be hit again shortly after. I am expecting the retreat of Russia's remaining troops in that pocket via pontoon bridges and boats rather soon.
So much winning that Suedesi might even agree
Full List
1: Finland joined #NATO.
2: Sweden joined NATO.
3: Outdated Russian military tactics exposed as unchanged since WW2.
4: Russian military exposed as poorly equipped & disastrously led.
5: Russian army decimated with losses & casualties reported between 500,000 to 700,000. It now largely depends on poorly trained conscripts & volunteers.
6: Putin's endless red lines exposed as written in washable paint.
7: Medvedev's daily nuclear threats exposed as the drunken ramblings of a man-child.
8: Russia's Black Sea fleet driven from occupied #Crimea. Now barely operates in the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine's also sunk its flag ship the Moskva (Moscow).
9: Ukraine's grain & other sea exports keep growing. Russia aimed to capture all of Ukraine's Black Sea ports back in Feb 2022.
10: Proving Putin wrong, Western countries support for Ukraine remains steadfast.
11: Massive sanctions imposed on Russia and they keep coming. Sanctions include banning Putin's vast propaganda media from the EU.
12: Putin's planned 3 day invasion of Ukraine has now lasted well over 2 years and counting.
13: Russia hasn't achieved any of its military objectives. It still doesn't control all of eastern or southern Ukraine.
14: Things are going so bad, Russia banned its soldiers from using mobile phones in occupied Ukraine - as too much bad news getting seen in Russia.
15: August 6th 2024: Ukraine invaded Russia's Kursk region - in BROAD DAYLIGHT. With the majority of Russia's army in Ukraine, Russia foolishly relied on young conscript soldiers to defend its border. As a consequence, large numbers of Russian soldiers have surrendered & Ukrainian troops continue to capture large swaths of the Kursk region.
16: Putin claimed he invaded Ukraine to make Russia safer. And he's achieved the exact opposite.
17: Ukraine invaded Russia
Full List
1: Finland joined #NATO.
2: Sweden joined NATO.
3: Outdated Russian military tactics exposed as unchanged since WW2.
4: Russian military exposed as poorly equipped & disastrously led.
5: Russian army decimated with losses & casualties reported between 500,000 to 700,000. It now largely depends on poorly trained conscripts & volunteers.
6: Putin's endless red lines exposed as written in washable paint.
7: Medvedev's daily nuclear threats exposed as the drunken ramblings of a man-child.
8: Russia's Black Sea fleet driven from occupied #Crimea. Now barely operates in the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine's also sunk its flag ship the Moskva (Moscow).
9: Ukraine's grain & other sea exports keep growing. Russia aimed to capture all of Ukraine's Black Sea ports back in Feb 2022.
10: Proving Putin wrong, Western countries support for Ukraine remains steadfast.
11: Massive sanctions imposed on Russia and they keep coming. Sanctions include banning Putin's vast propaganda media from the EU.
12: Putin's planned 3 day invasion of Ukraine has now lasted well over 2 years and counting.
13: Russia hasn't achieved any of its military objectives. It still doesn't control all of eastern or southern Ukraine.
14: Things are going so bad, Russia banned its soldiers from using mobile phones in occupied Ukraine - as too much bad news getting seen in Russia.
15: August 6th 2024: Ukraine invaded Russia's Kursk region - in BROAD DAYLIGHT. With the majority of Russia's army in Ukraine, Russia foolishly relied on young conscript soldiers to defend its border. As a consequence, large numbers of Russian soldiers have surrendered & Ukrainian troops continue to capture large swaths of the Kursk region.
16: Putin claimed he invaded Ukraine to make Russia safer. And he's achieved the exact opposite.
17: Ukraine invaded Russia
A lot of this is just plainly misinformation though.
Yeah no, the tactics are not WW2 tactics. Also, this is kind of a racist tropes that was perpetuated by Nazi's with the whole, "Asiatic hordes of Slavs charging into lines of German MG42's and 88mm Anti tank guns."
Russian tactics are pretty consistent with Gerasimov's theory. It's just the equipment quality, corruption and lack of proper training has undermined the functionality of said doctrine.
Regarding casualties, gross exaggeration.
There was no movement to try and capture Odessa.
Ban of Russian media? I can still read RT.
14 is nonsense. Most NATO militaries ban mobile phones on frontline duty.
You don't think Odesa was next after they took control of Kherson and Nikolaev (which would've been next had they held on to Kherson).
Either they had the most insane plan to take an entire metropolitan city and hold the entire region with 1.5 brigades or it was never in their plans for the initial invasion.
4 brigades that were in that direction were redeployed to aid in the mop up of the Mariupol/Melitopol axis.
I do think that conquering Odessa and closing the southern arc to Transnistria was very firmly in the plans of the Russian attacks. I just don't think they expected half as much resistence by Ukraine's forces as they ended up encountering, expecting an easy repeat of them taking Crimea, and a continuation of what they encountered all the way from Crimea to Kherson, which they took almost unopposed even with the vital bridge intact. Them being stopped near Mykolaiv and only advancing rather slowly and with significant problems in the area between Mariupol-Melitopol just wasn't expected, and ended up with them having to reshuffle units. And if Kyiv was taken quickly, they probably hoped that the rest of the defenses would collapse quickly and they wouldn't have to fight an actual war.
That said, I do agree with you that the tweet is full of utter nonsense of a guy wanking himself of with perceived "failures" of the Russians.
The worst sentence for me personally is the one in #15: "With the majority of Russia's army in Ukraine, Russia foolishly relied on young conscript soldiers to defend its border." That is literally one of the smartest things the Russians have done in this war, you utter plonker!
Yeah they obviously had plans to take Odessa, but those same plans relied on them taking Kiev, toppling the government and collapsing any sort of military co-ordination. When that failed, so did all other plans. Russia lost this war in the first month.
Bit weird nit-picking those points when we could probably add 30 other reasons why Russia is fecked, with a bit of effort.
Bit weird nit-picking those points when we could probably add 30 other reasons why Russia is fecked, with a bit of effort.
I’m struggling to catch your drift on this one. The tweet said that Russia had aimed to take Odessa. To which, you have responded that there was no Russian move on Odessa. These are different things. Do you believe that Putin didn’t have the capture of Odessa as a war aim, then?
Well his war-aim was to thunderrun Kiev and the Eastern Oblasts and expected the country to collapse.
There is no evidence whatsoever that any Russian strategic or tactical plans were drawn up on a military level on how to take Odessa.
I suspect there’s a lot of elements of Russian war planning that two random guys on the internet can’t provide evidence for. That’s kind of how Putin rolls. Doesn’t mean the plans don’t exist.
My impression is that Odessa has an almost legendary place in Russian thinking/nostalgia. Add to that the strategic element of denying Ukraine a Black Sea port, and I’d say it’s almost a no-brainer that it would have been Putin’s aim to capture/control it.
Nothing indicates that though, nothing.
There wasn't enough brigades on that axis - even if Melitopol/Mariupol was a complete breeze there still wouldn't be enough to swing over the Dnipro River, maintain supply lines there to take Mykolaiv and then maintain a crossing of the Pivdennyi Buh river.
If there was a plan to take the Black sea West side you would have seen that in the troop composition.
Dude, they were going for Odessa, that was plainly obvious prior to them being pushed back from Mykolaiv. Of course it turned they couldn't do it, not even close, far from the only thing they totally and utterly failed at.
How was it "plainly obvious."
Explain how they were going to somehow cross 2 rivers, 2 cities to reach Odessa with 6 Brigades, 4 of which got diverted and half of which became Khersons garrison force.
Once again: you're looking at this from the perspective of Russia actually having to fight their way to Odesa. That was, by all appearances, not what they had planned for. They did not expect large-scale and organized resistance. They expected quick collapses, Kyiv being taken within the first week, and Russian troops being intended to mop up the dregs of the AFU and occupy. Hence why the troops in the southwest were relatively few and light.
The fact that those plans very obviously did not end up working out does not mean that the plan to take the entire coastline did not exist.
If they intended for the whole country to collapse, when then were there 17 brigades in the Kharkiv/Sumy axis and 24 brigades just on the Kiev Axis alone?
10 Brigades in total on the Crimean front, of which 3 were not even Regulars.
Even if there was 0 Ukrainian resistance in that region, there was simply not enough there to get to Odessa or anywhere close. No supply chain going from Crimea to beyond Kherson.
There's been severe incompetency by Russia throughout this war, but magically believing that their armoured vehicles don't need fuel and their soldiers don't need food and water is too much for me. In all the fronts where they stalled and ran out of supply, it was a case of "having enough on paper" but it not working out for a wide variety of reasons. On the 23rd of Feb it became very clear that supply wise there wasn't even enough on paper to push much beyond Kherson. Which is why their "attempt" at Mykolaiv was basically one brigade who parked there and then stopped. Mykolaiv didn't even have an AFU brigade defending it when the first Russians arrived.
Western military intelligence confirmed basically by the 26th of February that the Southern attack was to unify the Southern Coastline and not to drive much beyond Kherson.
There's credible evidence to suggest they only got to Mykolaiv because they were so surprised at how quickly Kherson fell (though there is a lot of controversy as to how and why this happened from the Ukrainian side).
It of course relied on them taking Mykolaiv first, then they cut Odessa off from the world and obliterate it from land and sea under a digital blackout. That of course relied on them finding success elsewhere in Ukraine first, which they couldn't because thankfully they are fecking incompetent. Not being able to take Kharkiv still boggles my mind
Or Sumy. They pushed um back to the Kharkiv border within three months Seriously, I feel bad for who wrote all the NATO text books about Russian strength. So of course they were never getting to Odessa, but it was obviously in there failed plans as completing the land bridge is just a no brainer.I dunno, a primary school level understanding of logistics is kinda on form for them. [Enemy at the Gates soundtrack begins]
In other news, the pontoons are up:
And Ukraine does love a good pontoon crossing...
And Ukraine does love a good pontoon crossing...