Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It of course relied on them taking Mykolaiv first, then they cut Odessa off from the world and obliterate it from land and sea under a digital blackout. That of course relied on them finding success elsewhere in Ukraine first, which they couldn't because thankfully they are fecking incompetent. Not being able to take Kharkiv still boggles my mind :lol: Or Sumy. They pushed um back to the Kharkiv border within three months :lol: Seriously, I feel bad for who wrote all the NATO text books about Russian strength. So of course they were never getting to Odessa, but it was obviously in there failed plans as completing the land bridge is just a no brainer.

I think we're talking about different things.

I think your point is, "Had everything gone to plan, Odessa was next on the Agenda if Ukraine hadn't totally capitulated."

Whereas my point is, "Odessa was not a consideration for the initial plan drawn up on the initial invasion." No tactical units were given instructions on how to pave the way or to reach Odessa.

Nah, I never expected Kharkiv to fall. There just wasn't enough soldiers there to take a city of 1 million + people.

This isn't Iraq where 50% of Baghdad hated Saddam, most of the other half were ambivalent and the Coalition had complete domination of the battlefield on every level.

Regarding bolded, I have a lot to talk about on this topic but it ultimately belongs to another thread.
 
So much winning that Suedesi might even agree




Full List

1: Finland joined #NATO.

2: Sweden joined NATO.

3: Outdated Russian military tactics exposed as unchanged since WW2.

4: Russian military exposed as poorly equipped & disastrously led.

5: Russian army decimated with losses & casualties reported between 500,000 to 700,000. It now largely depends on poorly trained conscripts & volunteers.

6: Putin's endless red lines exposed as written in washable paint.

7: Medvedev's daily nuclear threats exposed as the drunken ramblings of a man-child.

8: Russia's Black Sea fleet driven from occupied #Crimea. Now barely operates in the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine's also sunk its flag ship the Moskva (Moscow).

9: Ukraine's grain & other sea exports keep growing. Russia aimed to capture all of Ukraine's Black Sea ports back in Feb 2022.

10: Proving Putin wrong, Western countries support for Ukraine remains steadfast.

11: Massive sanctions imposed on Russia and they keep coming. Sanctions include banning Putin's vast propaganda media from the EU.

12: Putin's planned 3 day invasion of Ukraine has now lasted well over 2 years and counting.

13: Russia hasn't achieved any of its military objectives. It still doesn't control all of eastern or southern Ukraine.

14: Things are going so bad, Russia banned its soldiers from using mobile phones in occupied Ukraine - as too much bad news getting seen in Russia.

15: August 6th 2024: Ukraine invaded Russia's Kursk region - in BROAD DAYLIGHT. With the majority of Russia's army in Ukraine, Russia foolishly relied on young conscript soldiers to defend its border. As a consequence, large numbers of Russian soldiers have surrendered & Ukrainian troops continue to capture large swaths of the Kursk region.

16: Putin claimed he invaded Ukraine to make Russia safer. And he's achieved the exact opposite.

17: Ukraine invaded Russia

The irony is that you're his exact counter-part and as much ideologically indoctrinated committed as he is.

When it comes to international matters, there's absolutely zero nuance in your judgment and an unhealthy dose of hawkism transpiring through every single post of yours. Also a badly disguised contempt and intolerance for anything foreign to your own worldview. I've seen it in this thread, in the Iran one, as well as Palestine's. Your high level of education, intelligence and knowledge forbids anyone with a lick of sense to dismiss your opinions on the sole basis of ignorance and/or lack of understanding.

You're a sophistic and unapologetic "Murica, feck yeah" proponent, truth and facts be damned if they get in your way.
 
The irony is that you're his exact counter-part and as much ideologically indoctrinated committed as he is.

When it comes to international matters, there's absolutely zero nuance in your judgment and an unhealthy dose of hawkism transpiring through every single post of yours. Also a badly disguised contempt and intolerance for anything foreign to your own worldview. I've seen it in this thread, in the Iran one, as well as Palestine's. Your high level of education, intelligence and knowledge forbids anyone with a lick of sense to dismiss your opinions on the sole basis of ignorance and/or lack of understanding.

You're a sophistic and unapologetic "Murica, feck yeah" proponent, truth and facts be damned if they get in your way.

There's a big difference between @Raoul and @Suedesi

Raoul subscribes to RealPolitiks, and views things through the lens of American Interests, which is absolutely fine because that's what realpolitiking in geopolitics is. There is no need to distort anything because he understands that ultimately in state level politics national interest comes first and foremost.

Sudesi portrays through the lens of right and wrong, and somehow has concluded that everything is the West's fault, but does this without even having a typical realpolitik view of things. And to reach those conclusions, he retcons facts and spins these insane narratives that range from pure fiction to serious misrepresentations of the truth. He tries to make up things to convince himself that his emotionally driven opinions are morally righteous.

Raoul doesn't.

I would respect Sudesi a lot more if he just came out and said, "I'm pro Russia in this conflict because after decades of poor Western foreign policy, I want to see them knocked back a few pegs." It would be ignorant and completely misguided, but at least he would be telling his truthful feelings on the matter. Instead he conjures fan fiction of how Russia is outproducing the whole of NATO in armaments and high level weaponry and that someone Ukraine is not allowed to have agency in this.
 

Unsurprisingly, Musk has said that he had nothing to do with it. Maybe unsurprisingly is a bit strong of a word for the unhinged loon that Musk is but when Kadyrov says that he was gifted something, chances are, he has paid over the odds to get it and the supposed donator often has no idea who Kadyrov even is.

It’s the same story with Kadyrov every time. For him it’s important to create this public image of him being adored by every semi-notable figure out there and this is not the first (or, probably, not even the hundredth) gift that he has invented.
 
The pro-Russia posters in here are weird.
Are those pro-Russian posters in the same room as us at the moment?

It’s not that there aren’t any but I haven’t seen one in this thread in a while to provoke a reaction. Who are you talking about?
 
Are those pro-Russian posters in the same room as us at the moment?

It’s not that there aren’t any but I haven’t seen one in this thread in a while to provoke a reaction. Who are you talking about?
Being cynical, they won't be posting when things are going well for Ukraine.

Wait for the next setback and they'll be posting again.
 
Being cynical, they won't be posting when things are going well for Ukraine.

Wait for the next setback and they'll be posting again.
It’s not all roses and honey for Ukraine right now, they’re evacuating Pokrovsk which would be a significant loss in Donetsk.

When that happens, which seems inevitable, I imagine you’ll get those posters back.

I do hope there isn’t something of the German 1918 summer offensive about Ukraine’s advance. Hopefully they can do real damage to Russia’s war effort in Kursk.
 
Are those pro-Russian posters in the same room as us at the moment?

It’s not that there aren’t any but I haven’t seen one in this thread in a while to provoke a reaction. Who are you talking about?
He's talking about Alfonso which is funny
 
In other news, the pontoons are up:


And Ukraine does love a good pontoon crossing...

On the 19th, the one north of Glushkovo is already gone again, and there seems to be smoke rising a bit eastwards of it. Seems to be a bit of a whack-a-mole game with Ukrainian artillery.
 
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Being cynical, they won't be posting when things are going well for Ukraine.

Wait for the next setback and they'll be posting again.

Other forums I am on it is not like that. There's a lot of concern trolling about how Ukraine had to give up as they were running out of men/ammo/morale but as soon as the last few weeks changed things pushing Russian troops out of consolidated areas in Ukraine, suddenly that was Ukraine escalating and being a danger to the world.

What's interesting how many of these people aren't even the right-wing pro-Putin people in America who support Russia because they are seen as a bastion against wokeness. They're left wing tankies in Britain who view this conflict as a trade union dispute where Ukraine/Zelensky are the big bad corporate boss.
 
There's a big difference between @Raoul and @Suedesi

Raoul subscribes to RealPolitiks, and views things through the lens of American Interests, which is absolutely fine because that's what realpolitiking in geopolitics is. There is no need to distort anything because he understands that ultimately in state level politics national interest comes first and foremost.

Sudesi portrays through the lens of right and wrong, and somehow has concluded that everything is the West's fault, but does this without even having a typical realpolitik view of things. And to reach those conclusions, he retcons facts and spins these insane narratives that range from pure fiction to serious misrepresentations of the truth. He tries to make up things to convince himself that his emotionally driven opinions are morally righteous.

Raoul doesn't.

I would respect Sudesi a lot more if he just came out and said, "I'm pro Russia in this conflict because after decades of poor Western foreign policy, I want to see them knocked back a few pegs." It would be ignorant and completely misguided, but at least he would be telling his truthful feelings on the matter. Instead he conjures fan fiction of how Russia is outproducing the whole of NATO in armaments and high level weaponry and that someone Ukraine is not allowed to have agency in this.
I'd agree with you if I didn't didn't read his takes on the Middle-East, and I've been reading them for quite a while.

It's the hammer/nail theory in all its glory, as far from someone like Brzezinski as it gets. A short-sighted, but quite prevalent "our way or the highway" that can easily be hidden behind a realpolitik facade when the West in general and the US in particular currently are in a position of strength.

You're actually the only poster here alongside Harms I trust when it comes to numbers and a fair depiction of the situation on the battlefield and in the two countries.

Back to the topic, do you believe that Putin's primary intention was or still is to conquer the whole of Ukraine? And when that's done, make a move on the Baltic states? And then Poland? And then the rest of Europe?
 
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I'd agree with you if I didn't didn't read his takes on the Middle-East, and I've been reading them for quite a while.

It's the hammer/nail theory in all its glory, as far from someone like Brzezinski as it gets. A short-sighted, but quite prevalent "our way or the highway" that can easily be hidden behind a realpolitik facade when the West in general and the US in particular currently are in a position of strength.

You're actually the only poster here alongside Harms I trust when it comes to numbers and a fair depiction of the situation on the battlefield and in the two countries.

Back to the topic, do you believe that Putin's primary intention was or still is to conquer the whole of Ukraine? And when that's done, make a move on the Baltic states? And then Poland? And then the rest of Europe?

I would like to resurrect the Lost Hanging garden of Babylon, find the bone of Gabriel and consume it, before stealing the One Ring from Sauron, recruiting all the angels of the gates of heaven and then launch a coup against the celestial bodies before finally ascending to godhood.

Tl;dr - His primary intentions are pretty limited because he cannot even achieve the first part, the rest of it is wishful fantasies of dumb gopniks.
 
I'd agree with you if I didn't didn't read his takes on the Middle-East, and I've been reading them for quite a while.

Why not just come to grips with the fact that people on the internet have different views about various subjects and move on. If you spent half the time you dedicate to complaining about others, making cogent, well informed arguments about what your positions are, they would be recognized as such and you wouldn't need to lash out in frustration because your views aren't gaining traction.
 
It of course relied on them taking Mykolaiv first, then they cut Odessa off from the world and obliterate it from land and sea under a digital blackout. That of course relied on them finding success elsewhere in Ukraine first, which they couldn't because thankfully they are fecking incompetent. Not being able to take Kharkiv still boggles my mind :lol: Or Sumy. They pushed um back to the Kharkiv border within three months :lol: Seriously, I feel bad for who wrote all the NATO text books about Russian strength. So of course they were never getting to Odessa, but it was obviously in there failed plans as completing the land bridge is just a no brainer.

Interesting that just about everything Putin has tried so far in Ukraine has failed. Once the attempt to attack Kyiv from Belarus flopped, followed by getting repelled out of Kharkiv, then Kherson, its obvious Putin ran out of ideas and has since been clutching at straws by way of holding on to Donbas and the land near the Crimea border so he doesn't look like he's losing. I suspect there will be a breaking of the dam moment in Kursk where forces have to be repositioned, which will eventually allow the Ukrainians to finally make some progress in the south.
 
Why not just come to grips with the fact that people on the internet have different views about various subjects and move on. If you spent half the time you dedicate to complaining about others, making cogent, well informed arguments about what your positions are, they would be recognized as such and you wouldn't need to lash out in frustration because your views aren't gaining traction.
Am I not allowed to react to them just like others are free to challenge mine? But I'll get out of your hair. I thought my views were pretty clear, I'll try to follow your advice in the future.

I never was here to win a popularity contest or any kind of validation, and couldn't care less about how many people, if any, share my views. I state my point on a particular topic and that's about it. If one thinks it's silly or wrong, they're free call me out on it or ignore my post. If they consider it worthy of a reply, they can quote me. Either case won't prevent me to sleep at night.
 
Russian Commentators are saying that the Tupolev Pak DA bomber has been deployed to the frontline: The Russian equivalent of a B-21 Raider...

image.png


Reality: It is a test non-serialized drone built 6 years ago....
 
I'm hearing chatter of an offensive brewing in the Zapo direction by the AFU - chatter from Russian telegram channels.
 
I'm hearing chatter of an offensive brewing in the Zapo direction by the AFU - chatter from Russian telegram channels.
Trying to keep Russian troops in Ukraine (for now) maybe?

Lots of reports that Ukraine just crossed the border into Bryansk instead, near the Belarus border.
 


At least one Russian gets it, referring to the last paragraph. Horrific for whoever calls those Ukrainian villages in the east home of course, but that land matters diddly squat in the grand scheme of things. Ukraine needs to continue feeding Russian commanders their 'victories' there.

Someone did the math, at the rate of Russia's expansion last month, a particularly 'good' month for them, it would apparently take them 7 years and 2 months to occupy the whole of just Donetsk Oblast. Keep feeding them and keep killing them.
 
Remember the rumor I heard awhile ago about how they are preparing for some offensive? Can't help wondering if it was true and it was for all these operations.
 

That sounds like a very weird conclusion to me. Why would the destruction of notable parts of the Black Sea fleet increase the Russian reliance on ferries? I doubt that they have transported notable amounts of equipment using the fleet. Not when they still have both Crimea bridges afaik, especially the railway connection will be able to handle massive amounts of supply way easier than loading and unloading the ships.
 
That sounds like a very weird conclusion to me. Why would the destruction of notable parts of the Black Sea fleet increase the Russian reliance on ferries? I doubt that they have transported notable amounts of equipment using the fleet. Not when they still have both Crimea bridges afaik, especially the railway connection will be able to handle massive amounts of supply way easier than loading and unloading the ships.
Do you mean the Kerch bridge? Allegedly the Russians aren't really using that bridge for military purpose anymore.

However, a navy spokesperson told local media in June that destroying the Kerch Bridge now would no longer be as useful because Russia has mostly stopped using it for military purposes.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...ssing-in-occupied-crimea-and-vessel-in-russia
 
Poorly trained recruits contribute to loss of Ukrainian territory on eastern front, commanders say
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Some new Ukrainian soldiers refuse to fire at the enemy. Others, according to commanders and fellow fighters, struggle to assemble weapons or to coordinate basic combat movements. A few have even walked away from their posts, abandoning the battlefield altogether.

The recently conscripted Ukrainians are a far cry from the battle-hardened fighters who flocked to join the war in the first year of the full-scale invasion. The new troops lack even a minimal level of training, commanders and soldiers from four brigades defending the Pokrovsk area said.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-new-recruits-pokrovsk-ed2d06ad529e3b7e47ecd32f79911b83
 
Do you mean the Kerch bridge? Allegedly the Russians aren't really using that bridge for military purpose anymore.


https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...ssing-in-occupied-crimea-and-vessel-in-russia
It's actual, official name is Crimean Bridge. Although technically, they're four bridges... two railway bridges, two road bridges, with Tuzla island inbetween.

I wasn't aware that they stopped using it for military purposes mostly. Seems a bit odd when it should have a lot more capacity than using ferries. Especially since Crimea has become such a hazardous neighborhood for ships. Talking about it... I just read that a Russian ferry in the port of Kavkaz is on fire. Allegedly it was transporting fuel cisterns.
Edit: Better and closeup videos: https://ua-stena.info/en/a-russian-ferry-was-blown-up-in-the-port-of-kavkaz/
 
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It's a rather awkward situation in which Ukraine has taken some Russian territory around Kursk but the Russians are still pushing hard in eastern Ukraine instead of relocating troops in large numbers back to Kursk.
 
That sounds like a very weird conclusion to me. Why would the destruction of notable parts of the Black Sea fleet increase the Russian reliance on ferries? I doubt that they have transported notable amounts of equipment using the fleet. Not when they still have both Crimea bridges afaik, especially the railway connection will be able to handle massive amounts of supply way easier than loading and unloading the ships.
From what I have read they don't allow any ammunition or fuel trasports on the bridge after the explosion and have been using landing ships and ferries instead.
The Black Sea Fleet had 5 Ropucha class landing ships prior to the invasion and early February 2022 they sailed another 6 Ropuchas from the Northern Fleet and the Baltic Fleet into the Black Sea so they had the capabilty to ship a lot of tonnage when the war started. Most of these have been damaged or destroyed now so they have replaced them with ferries.
 
It's a rather awkward situation in which Ukraine has taken some Russian territory around Kursk but the Russians are still pushing hard in eastern Ukraine instead of relocating troops in large numbers back to Kursk.
Interesting to see the end goal for Ukraine here and how it will pan out. Attack is always more exhausting than defending and they will need supply lines and to continue which will be hard to maintain on enemy territory.

It would give them some leverage in eventual peace negotiations though, provided they keep that territory for a while.
 
It's a rather awkward situation in which Ukraine has taken some Russian territory around Kursk but the Russians are still pushing hard in eastern Ukraine instead of relocating troops in large numbers back to Kursk.

Awkward for Russia indeed. I'm probably in the wrong here, because I seem to be the only one holding this opinion, and I don't mean just on here, but honestly I'm just laughing now at all the doom and gloom portrayed over Russia's 'gains in the east'. It's fecking comical. That article you linked above was too much, I think the author made it a bit too obvious with that one. I'm convinced Ukraine has been trying to recreate the battle of Bakhmut ever since "losing" it was so massively beneficial for them back then.

In the last two weeks Russia gained around 150km² in Ukraine. Ukraine gained around 1,000 km² in Russia. (Being generous to Russia here).

But that doesn't tell the whole story, Russia increasing its occupied holdings in eastern Ukraine by 0.17% (yes I did the math) does what exactly for Russia? It's just rubble, tiny specs on the map not worth anything, the only thing I can think is that Russian commanders can pretend they are winning victories, for their own benefit and for the propaganda, but actually nothing in the scope of winning this war, zero factor. What does it do for Ukraine? Sucks for the people that call Pokrovsk or wherever home, its another tragic human story, however in the big picture of winning this war, this territory is zero factor.

On the other side, Ukraine gaining a foothold in Russia for the first time has already fundamentally changed this war. There is no "wait and see", enough time has passed now to show Russia can't do a whole lot about it. Conscript sons of Muscovites are being killed and captured as air defence explosions wake them in their sleep. They are at war all of a sudden and conscripts being sent to fight is a touchy subject. This is very dangerous for Putin. On top of that, the impact of transferring the war onto Russian soil rather than Ukrainian can't be underestimated.

But that doesn't tell the whole story, what actually matters is the men and material. Now we don't know the actual stats here, but the consensus nowadays seems to be that Ukraine's published numbers of Russian casualties are likely not far off the mark, as agreed by the UK, US, France etc. Consistently over 1k casualties per day for Russia, still we can't really judge without knowing Ukraine's and without knowing what the beneficial ratio actually is but just from considering all the footage published by both sides, and I spend some time in Russian cess-pits, Ukraine is winning the k/d even on the offense in Kursk.

Maybe that's why the entire world's media and individual commentator's only judge this war on km², because its the only stat we actually know for sure. Simple stats for our simple minds. If Ukraine really is inflicting that level of casualties though, they will be doing whatever possible to keep that going I'm looking at the map right now just hoping Russia keeps on pushing hard in eastern Ukraine, I only see that benefitting Ukraine, both from dead Russians and their much faster rate of expansion in Kursk + whatever other plans they have in the works.

Please someone tell me what I'm missing. Russia is getting buttfecked right now and all this reserved faux objectivity is annoying :lol:
 
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Raoul subscribes to RealPolitiks, and views things through the lens of American Interests, which is absolutely fine because that's what realpolitiking in geopolitics is.

When you say it's absolutely fine do you mean it in what way? Can you explain a bit what you mean here.
 
When you say it's absolutely fine do you mean it in what way? Can you explain a bit what you mean here.

That it's absolutely okay to subscribe your worldview in a RealPolitiks lens. But I'm not expanding beyond that to be honest:

I really don't want to engage with you after the last rounds, given your very abrasive, aggressive attitude and your obtuse intent to take stray words out of context in order to pick a fight / argument or to find a reason to shoot down from your high horse.
 
Awkward for Russia indeed. I'm probably in the wrong here, because I seem to be the only one holding this opinion, and I don't mean just on here, but honestly I'm just laughing now at all the doom and gloom portrayed over Russia's 'gains in the east'. It's fecking comical. That article you linked above was too much, I think the author made it a bit too obvious with that one. I'm convinced Ukraine has been trying to recreate the battle of Bakhmut ever since "losing" it was so massively beneficial for them back then.

In the last two weeks Russia gained around 150km² in Ukraine. Ukraine gained around 1,000 km² in Russia. (Being generous to Russia here).

But that doesn't tell the whole story, Russia increasing its occupied holdings in eastern Ukraine by 0.17% (yes I did the math) does what exactly for Russia? It's just rubble, tiny specs on the map not worth anything, the only thing I can think is that Russian commanders can pretend they are winning victories, for their own benefit and for the propaganda, but actually nothing in the scope of winning this war, zero factor. What does it do for Ukraine? Sucks for the people that call Pokrovsk or wherever home, its another tragic human story, however in the big picture of winning this war, this territory is zero factor.

On the other side, Ukraine gaining a foothold in Russia for the first time has already fundamentally changed this war. There is no "wait and see", enough time has passed now to show Russia can't do a whole lot about it. Conscript sons of Muscovites are being killed and captured as air defence explosions wake them in their sleep. They are at war all of a sudden and conscripts being sent to fight is a touchy subject. This is very dangerous for Putin. On top of that, the impact of transferring the war onto Russian soil rather than Ukrainian can't be underestimated.

But that doesn't tell the whole story, what actually matters is the men and material. Now we don't know the actual stats here, but the consensus nowadays seems to be that Ukraine's published numbers of Russian casualties are likely not far off the mark, as agreed by the UK, US, France etc. Consistently over 1k casualties per day for Russia, still we can't really judge without knowing Ukraine's and without knowing what the beneficial ratio actually is but just from considering all the footage published by both sides, and I spend some time in Russian cess-pits, Ukraine is winning the k/d even on the offense in Kursk.

Maybe that's why the entire world's media and individual commentator's only judge this war on km², because its the only stat we actually know for sure. Simple stats for our simple minds. If Ukraine really is inflicting that level of casualties though, they will be doing whatever possible to keep that going I'm looking at the map right now just hoping Russia keeps on pushing hard in eastern Ukraine, I only see that benefitting Ukraine, both from dead Russians and their much faster rate of expansion in Kursk + whatever other plans they have in the works.

Please someone tell me what I'm missing. Russia is getting buttfecked right now and all this reserved faux objectivity is annoying :lol:

This, to you, might be just looking at updated maps every day, and looking at territory gains and such but for a lot of us it's knowing that for every sqkm that Russia gains, many Ukrainian servicemen lost their lives in an ultimately pointless war and another sqkm of land that has been to retaken with the cost of even more lives.

The human cost is awful right now, absolutely awful, I'm not sure who will fall first. The human cost of Ukraine vs the Economic cost of Russia.