It’s not as strict as it was before but basically it’s a marker of your position. Those who are against it usually call it a war as well as, weirdly enough, the most radical supporters of it. Regular people between themselves often call it SMO (СВО in Cyrillic), not because they believe that it isn’t a war but because calling it “war” can still lead to a criminal case for the “discrediting of the Russian army”. To be fair I don’t think that they consciously choose to call it that every time, they’ve just got used to calling it that way now.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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That graphic of civil casualties that was (!) officially reported by DPR remains one of the most surreal things in the entire shambolic “justification” for the full-scale invasion.Don't forget the 13 people in Donetsk Oblast that have been killed by Ukraine shelling from 2014-2022, which was the DPR's justification for siding with Russia
Yeah, “we just couldn’t wait any longer” while they were killing… like a dozen people in how many years of an actual on-going (albeit a relatively slow-burning) military conflict.
By the way, completely off topic but I saw your tagline?
You been to Paektu mountain? I spent 3 days in that region, (On the chinese side of the border obviously
). Beautiful place.We were making fun of like a million of official titles that Kim Jong Il has and this is one of them. I guess it kinda stuck as it usually is with taglines. I’ve never been to Korea myself although I would’ve loved to visit it sometimes, both South and North, albeit for different reasons, obviously (I have a morbid curiosity with DPRK).By the way, completely off topic but I saw your tagline?
You been to Paektu mountain? I spent 3 days in that region, (On the chinese side of the border obviously
Alexey Dyumin (I've written at length in this thread about why I'm 90% sure he's going to succeed Putin) put in charge of the Kursk situation:
https://nationalpost.com/news/world...guard-to-kursk-to-oversee-ukrainian-incursion
https://nationalpost.com/news/world...guard-to-kursk-to-oversee-ukrainian-incursion
Interesting point as mentioned by others too about silence. There was too much talk about the counter-offensive last summer and the Russians were well aware what was coming.
How Ukraine Caught Putin’s Forces Off Guard in Kursk — And Why
How Ukraine Caught Putin’s Forces Off Guard in Kursk — And Why
https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/how-ukraine-caught-putins-forces-off-guard-in-kursk-and-why/
It's TOO quiet tbh. Not in an opsec way, that's standard. There's a severe lack of hype going on.
War Fatigue - too much death and destruction to get hyped.
It really does seem like Russia's (Putins) only ability to hold control of the country is nukes and throwing enough bodies at enemy bullets that supplies run low.
One of their own marches on Moscow and the state can't react. Ukraine is under siege and is now taking the piss in their borders. Russia is a hollowed out mess that relies on threatening to nuke the world to remain relevant. If only someone in the hierarchy could realise that Putin is nothing and there for the "taking".
One of their own marches on Moscow and the state can't react. Ukraine is under siege and is now taking the piss in their borders. Russia is a hollowed out mess that relies on threatening to nuke the world to remain relevant. If only someone in the hierarchy could realise that Putin is nothing and there for the "taking".
Why would you want that though?
Putin is actually relatively "sane" in comparison to most other alternative Russian politicians.
Purely theoretically , where would a Wagner type of excursion but with superior weapons (AA, AT, manpads, etc) and greater mumbers reach if starting from the Kursk region and keeping on the highways / main roads. Obviously not Moscow but how far would you reckon? Even though it still sounds unbelievable but Russia cannot protect the rear adequately and in timely fashion.
How would you supply that force?
YOLO thunder runs work when you have full spectrum dominance of the battlefield, not when you're the AFU, unfortunately.
Yeah that's why the question is how far? It's kind of a thought exercise. What I am actually interested in, where is the first point that an actual resistance could be mounted? In the Wagner case that did not happen . And if it was about to happen, it would have been with some inexperienced rosgvardia units. Wonder if it would be the same this time around. For simplicity, lets assume the speedrun starts from the moment of the border incursion.
Wagner was a special case as they were Russians. If Ukraine did this, nothing would stop the Russians from bombing them to pieces on the road. (Which they can't do while Ukrainian forces are inside Russian towns.)
I don't think that was the case. They tried to bomb them but got shot down. That's why I mentioned the better equipment- with tactical SAM systems . Wagner used Buk/Pantsir or something similar and still eliminated the aerial threat.
Ukraine do not have any notable mobile anti air tactical systems. You're not going to wheel a whole NASAM's system down the highway and then deploy intermittently when you get paranoid or you get twitchy. A Patriot system is out of the question.
That leave's Strela's and Stingers which aren't going to take out high-medium altitude long distance bombers hurling cruise missiles.
They'll get to about 50 miles deep, run out of fuel, and then abandon their vehicles and go home.
They are supposed to have also Tor, Buk, and a couple of others right?
While the larger GBAD systems are also technically "mobile", they are not made to surveil and fire on the move. They need to stop and set up. That just isn't an option during a fast and deep incursion, you need to keep the skies clear in other ways, and the only tool that could feasibly achieve that is a superior airforce of your own that can establish air superiority while also not getting shot down by the huge number of high range Russian ground defense. Something that is very obviously not on the table for Ukraine.
Wagner had the unique circumstances that Russia didn't want them wiped out due to the usefulness of the group both in Ukraine and as "mercenary" forces in other parts of the world. Russian soldiers were also very confused about what was going on, if not outright sympathetic with Wagner after their criticism of Russian leadership and supply chain. Things won't be the same if Ukrainian forces try to pull the same stunt.
Wagner had the unique circumstances that Russia didn't want them wiped out due to the usefulness of the group both in Ukraine and as "mercenary" forces in other parts of the world. Russian soldiers were also very confused about what was going on, if not outright sympathetic with Wagner after their criticism of Russian leadership and supply chain. Things won't be the same if Ukrainian forces try to pull the same stunt.
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I'm totally ignorant of Russian politicians. Are the alternatives really much more crazy than Putin, or do you think think it's all performative and they're posturing to appear stronger than their rivals, much like Braverman, Patel, Badenoch etc all try out cnut each other here?
Wagner had Pantsir in the convoy which can fire on the move. I am not sure about Tor , Strela, and Buk.
I wouldn't be so sure. I doubt that many of them truly believe what they say, they just try to one up each other by spitting out propaganda points in order to gain Putin's favor. Certainly not the most capable/influential ones with a few exceptions like Medvedev who seems to exist in an alcohol-influenced delirium.
And even if not the potential internal struggles for power can only be good for Ukraine — unlike the current clear hierarchical set up where at the very top sits a maniac whose only goal is to make sure that he gets his own voluminous chapter in future history books.
I used to watch state duma broadcasts and speeches and I used to click X about 20 minutes in thinking it must be parody.
Do you think they're all just playing a stupid game of brinksmanship trying to one up one another in extremity to appeal to Putin?
That's simply not true, no one had tried to bomb them. They shot down a couple of helicopters and a "flying command center" (not a bomber) Il-22.
They weren't treated as an enemy force for multitude of reasons. Putin himself had waited for a while before clearly stating that these are traitors. Wagner were "heroes" that just took Bakhmut, eliminating them would've been a huge political blow — as well as a waste of valuable human resources. And there are many other minor reasons.
Thanks for the correction, I did think that a helicopter tried to shoot at them.
Some of them genuinely believe what they're saying, of course. Plus at some point when you keep saying something you don't believe in you start to believe in it, it's a human reaction. But I doubt that most of those who are actually influential — like Sobyanin or Kiriyenko, the so-called "technocrats" of Putinism, believe that... they believe that the existence of Putinism serves their own goals (and it does). Clowns like Tereshkova or Klishas are just talking heads who won't be competing for power if something happens with Putin. Just like it was with the Nazi Germany, when the system eventual crumbles, most of its members will quickly turn coats and say that they just did what was expected of them.
Patrushev, Zolotov and other siloviki are genuine believers but they are the continuation of Putinism... if they will somehow come to power (which is, sadly, quite likely, as they control FSB, FSO, Rosgvardia, police etc.), nothing will change. I very much doubt that it will be a drastic change for the worse.
Far side of Russia but 'technical malfunction's' doing their bit for the Ukrainian cause, bringing this plane down in a ball of flames.
Around 50, how many are working is a different matter.
Once a month Responsible Statecraft gather together a 'symposium' to discuss whatever the most prominent recent development in the war has been. Yesterday's edition was obviously the Kursk incursion.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-kursk-incursion/
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-kursk-incursion/
Do you think that there's any way for Ukraine to hold on what they've taken or is it doomed to fail in the long-term?
@harms Seems that Dyumin is coming under the spotlights at a quite interesting moment.
Make or break?
Make or break?
Ukraine still vulnerable in the east.
The tweet is missing that there is a third bridge. It only has the ones at Glushkovo and Zvannoe, missing the one in Karyzh, which is still operational as far as I am aware. Although that one should also be very much in range of HIMARS. If they can manage to take down all the bridges, then Russia supplying the troops on that side of the river will get significantly harder, though far from impossible.
Maybe they will set up a new pontoon crossing.
