Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[stefan92]

He can't pull out of NATO but it's in his power to ignore Article 5, if Putin attacks a NATO country.

If he ignores that, than NATO is dead and the US will have to leave quite a lot of bases around the world because countries won't see the benefit in cooperating with the US anymore (or will demand quite a lot of money or whatever to keep that going). This scenario would diminish the US ability to project power around the world a lot.

That said this might even fit Trump's "America First" policy of not wanting to care so much about other countries, but this would definitely have huge strategic implications that I don't believe even Trump is ready to accept. We would definitely see a new world order if that happens however

 

[That_Bloke]

The first point already is an invitation to every dictator to start a war and grab lands. China and Taiwan next and the West just bows down again?

Oh, they'll have a field day if Trump is elected and they're in the mood, but getting rid of Ukraine is absolutely on the cards for an eventual Trump mandate, imo.

Why not? Does bowing only works one way? On a more serious note, he's not best pals with China and Taiwan is too important for the US and the rest of the West to let it fall to the Chinese, even under Trump.

We aren't in 1924, such imperialist politics are absolutely unacceptable in 2024.

Do you realize the incredible irony of this sentence?

He can't pull out of NATO but it's in his power to ignore Article 5, if Putin attacks a NATO country.
Already his idiotic talks about not honoring the US commitments caused unrepairable damage to the alliance and are an invitation for Putin to become even more bold in his actions.

That's not going to happen. Firstly because the damage would be immense for the US and even a lunatic like him knows it. If not, the people who will run the country for him won't let him do it. You'd think that by now, people would be able to separate his drivel from he actually can do.

Secondly, there's a difference between attacking Ukraine or any other country that's not a NATO member and well, a NATO member. I think that you and many others, are vastly overestimating not only Russia's military capabilities but also its ability to project them. The Ukraine war already proved it, and as I already said, I don't believe that it's Putin's intention. And that's without even talking about a worldwide conflagration which nobody wants.

Trump is a fecking moron and train wreck.

No disagreement here.

 

[B. Munich]

That's not going to happen. Firstly because the damage would be immense for the US and even a lunatic like him knows it. If not, the people who will run the country for him won't let him do it. You'd think that by now, people would be able to separate his drivel from he actually can do.

Even if it's only pre election gibberish some hardliner in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea might be inclined to put his words to a test.
It's absolutely reckless to even play with such threats in the election campaign.

Do you realize the incredible irony of this sentence?

You tell me.

Secondly, there's a difference between attacking Ukraine or any other country that's not a NATO member and well, a NATO member. I think that you and many others, are vastly overestimating not only Russia's military capabilities but also its ability to project them. The Ukraine war already proved it, and as I already said, I don't believe that it's Putin's intention. And that's without even talking about a worldwide conflagration which nobody wants.

Taiwan isn't a NATO member as well. If Trump abandons the Ukraine and leaves Europe alone, do you think European countries will come up to support the US on Taiwan, if China dares to escalate?
Again Trump is playing with fire here.

Frankly, I was also in the camp thinking Putin was only bluffing and would never ever attack the Ukraine. Februar 24th proved me and many Germans to be totally wrong. Since then I wouldn't exclude anything when it comes to Putin. He left the rational path a long time ago.

 

[Simbo]

Its almost romantic.

 

[africanspur]

And yet it's already changing due to Russia's influence. Brexit? Rise of far-right parties that are supported by Russia? After all the meddling that Russia is doing in election processes and thus trying to weaken western democracies, it's obvious they are in cold war with us. I don't think that Russia will attack any time soon NATO countries (although they might test the alliance by attacking Baltics), however if they succeed with land grab in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. It will send a message to everyone in the world that conquest through war is possible again. That international borders mean nothing.

What's to stop from other countries attacking neighbors? I firmly believe that if Russia wins it will lead to further destabilization of western democracies and unity. It will lead to rise more of autocratic leaders like Orban in Hungary. Democracies want peace because it helps their citizens, but autocrats love war as it entrenches their leadership. We are already seeing the rise of nationalism in many countries and where nationalists govern there is more chance of war.

I want to be wrong, but if Russia wins I wouldn't be surprised if there is another hot war in Europe (not necessary with Russia as a direct participant).

I'm not denying that if Russia wins in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. I'm also not denying that there is a rise of far right parties in Europe.

I'm merely saying that I don't think its particularly surprising that a Brit or French person is generally going to see this as much less an existential threat than an Estonian or Pole. Neither the Brit nor the Estonian are wrong, they're just different circumstances. That is the main part.

While Russia foments discord, I think its often used as a very convenient excuse. You can send me all the Russia produced misinformation you want to, I'm still not going to vote for Brexit or the conservatives or Le Pen or Wilders. Yet many are. The base underlying causes need to be there.

 

[africanspur]

Taiwan isn't a NATO member as well. If Trump abandons the Ukraine and leaves Europe alone, do you think European countries will come up to support the US on Taiwan, if China dares to escalate?
Again Trump is playing with fire here.

Frankly, I was also in the camp thinking Putin was only bluffing and would never ever attack the Ukraine. Februar 24th proved me and many Germans to be totally wrong. Since then I wouldn't exclude anything when it comes to Putin. He left the rational path a long time ago.

I'm almost certain no European countries, except perhaps the UK in its general desire/desperation to maintain the 'special relationship' will follow the USA into a military conflict with China over Taiwan if that happens. They're already doing significantly less than the USA is on a hot war on their own continent.

 

[That_Bloke]

Even if it's only pre election gibberish some hardliner in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea might be inclined to put his words to a test.
It's absolutely reckless to even play with such threats in the election campaign.

It's his way to tell the European countries to step up to the plate when it comes to NATO.

You tell me.

Take a closer look at the West lead by the US behaved across the world in the past 75 years and I'm sure you'll understand what I'm getting at.

Taiwan isn't a NATO member as well. If Trump abandons the Ukraine and leaves Europe alone, do you think European countries will come up to support the US on Taiwan, if China dares to escalate?
Again Trump is playing with fire here.

India, Japan, Australia and South Korea could fill in the gaps. But Europe would better fall in line and will do it, for their own sake.

Taiwan's economy is four time Ukraine's, a major thoroughfare for worldwide shipping and more importantly the main supplier of semi-conductors (about 70%) and advanced microchips (around 90%) in the world. Furthermore, you have the strategic position Taiwan occupies in the "First Island Chain", a vital cog in the defense system of the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. China taking over Taiwan and controlling the Taiwan strait would give it the capacity to project its evergrowing Navy deep into the Pacific ocean, and directly threaten all the US allies in the region, something they aren't able to do right now.

Long story short, from a US point of view, Ukraine is expendable (kinda), Taiwan is not. Unless the West, particularly the US, wants to give China, which is the real competitor, the keys to the Indo-Pacific, an even greater part of the world economy's pie and look like real clowns. That's something even Trump understands.

Frankly, I was also in the camp thinking Putin was only bluffing and would never ever attack the Ukraine. Februar 24th proved me and many Germans to be totally wrong. Since then I wouldn't exclude anything when it comes to Putin. He left the rational path a long time ago.

Putin is a thug but a very rational one.

He's always been particularly fixated about Ukraine's place on the European chessboard, which was an open question since 1991. He considers it as part of Russia's backyard, a bit like Mexico for the US, for historic, economic and strategic reasons. Don't forget that all major invasions of Russia from the West went through Ukraine. He's determined to bring back Russia into the major league with a (big) say in world matters and never forgot the humiliation of the fall of the Soviet Union and its disastrous consequences. He repeatedly made it clear that any further attempts from Ukraine to get into NATO or encouragement from the West would trigger a Russian response. That Russia wouldn't bow down, to use your own expression. The West thought that he wouldn't do it. Until he did.

I'm not justifying what he did, it's wrong on every level, every country has the right to self-determination and choose its own path. But a demented idiot, Putin is not. People should be wise to that.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I'm almost certain no European countries, except perhaps the UK in its general desire/desperation to maintain the 'special relationship' will follow the USA into a military conflict with China over Taiwan if that happens. They're already doing significantly less than the USA is on a hot war on their own continent.

I don't think this is really true. European countries are currently committed to sending around about 3x more in aid to Ukraine than the US is. It's just mostly financial aid. I think in total they spend more on specifically military aid too, but it's a lot closer - understandable given the scale of the US arms industry. That comparison changes if the US passes another aid package, but by that metric it's likely European countries will also be committing more too.

 

[That_Bloke]

I'm not denying that if Russia wins in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. I'm also not denying that there is a rise of far right parties in Europe.

I'm merely saying that I don't think its particularly surprising that a Brit or French person is generally going to see this as much less an existential threat than an Estonian or Pole. Neither the Brit nor the Estonian are wrong, they're just different circumstances. That is the main part.

While Russia foments discord, I think its often used as a very convenient excuse. You can send me all the Russia produced misinformation you want to, I'm still not going to vote for Brexit or the conservatives or Le Pen or Wilders. Yet many are. The base underlying causes need to be there.

Word.

 

[africanspur]

I don't think this is really true. European countries are currently committed to sending around about 3x more in aid to Ukraine than the US is. It's just mostly financial aid. I think in total they spend more on specifically military aid too, but it's a lot closer - understandable given the scale of the US arms industry. That comparison changes if the US passes another aid package, but by that metric it's likely European countries will also be committing more too.

I don't mean the USA as one bloc and the whole of Europe as another. I mean the USA as one country, despite not being on the continent and having generally less to lose from a rampaging Russia than European nations do (who are generally all also wealthy MEDCs), contributing quite a bit more than any individual European country.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

He's always been particularly fixated about Ukraine's place on the European chessboard, which was an open question since 1991. He considers it as part of Russia's backyard, a bit like Mexico for the US, for historic, economic and strategic reasons. Don't forget that all major invasions of Russia from the West went through Ukraine. He's determined to bring back Russia into the major league. He never forgot the humiliation of the fall of the Soviet Union and its consequences. He made it repeatedly clear that any further attempts from Ukraine to get into NATO or encouragement from the West would trigger a Russian response. That Russia wouldn't bow down, to use your own expression. The West thought that he wouldn't do it. Until he did.

I'm not justifying what he did, it's wrong on every level, every country has the right to self-determination and choose its own path. But a demented idiot, Putin is not.

This is a bit of an understatement. Sure there are big economic and strategic reasons, but fundamentally Putin sees Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States as part of a single great Slavic nation united by culture, language and spirit. At every turn he laments the breakup of pre-soviet empire - the result of the insidious machinations of Poles and Austrians. Have a gander at this history lesson he gives. Ukrainians as a separate people was an invention of the Poles; its very name means "the periphery", the modern nation created by Lenin, its borders defined by the Soviet and built on historical Russian land etc. As you read along you get the idea that Putin perceive's the very existence of a separate Ukraine as a slight on the Russian soul. It's not the fall of the Soviet Union that he laments, so much as the disfigurement it caused to the prior empire.

 

[NLunited]

Don‘t underestimate what Trump is capable of. If he gets elected, there will be no pushback from within the US government like last time, because he plans to replace all the key positions with loyalists willing to ignore the law.

It will be basically the end of democracy in the US. He will pull out of NATO for sure because he loves Putin, who helped him getting elected and is succeeding in dividing the US.

Have we all forgotten the insurrection at the Capitol? It was something that was unimaginable before it happened, and a big number of people were/are supportive of it.

It‘s essential to deal with Putin decisively. Unfortunately it will have to be done without full US support, because Congress can‘t pass anything currently because of the Republicans who have abandoned law and order, the constitution and democracy.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I don't mean the USA as one bloc and the whole of Europe as another. I mean the USA as one country, despite not being on the continent and having generally less to lose from a rampaging Russia than European nations do (who are generally all also wealthy MEDCs), contributing quite a bit more than any individual European country.

Well that's a bit of a strange comparison given the size of the US to the size of any individual European country. Germany's providing half the US aid while having an economy 1/5 of the size. Uk's providing about 160% more of its gdp. Estonia's giving 14x as much. In relative terms Canada's providing the same amount of aid as the US.

 

[africanspur]

Well that's a bit of a strange comparison given the size of the US to the size of any individual European country. Germany's providing half the US aid while having an economy 1/5 of the size. Uk's providing about 160% more of its gdp. Estonia's giving 14x as much. In relative terms Canada's providing the same amount of aid as the US.

Its only strange in a context where we've completely internalised and normalised the concept of the USA being the world's eternal policeman. Not at all strange if you're a farmer in Alabama or a banker in NY wondering why your your country is sending so much money to a country and conflict that doesn't materially affect your day to day.

It makes complete sense to me that European countries should be taking up the overwhelming majority of the slack when it comes to defending a European country against a European aggressor, just as I would expect the USA to take up the overwhelming majority of the slack in a South American conflict or how I expect no European country other than perhaps the UK in name to actually do something concrete in a China Taiwan conflict, because they would not see the Western Pacific as 'their neighbourhood', while Japan would (and should) be far more invested.

Of course the USA is generally very globalist so they get involved in all of the above regardless, at present anyway.

 

[That_Bloke]

This is a bit of an understatement. Sure there are big economic and strategic reasons, but fundamentally Putin sees Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States as part of a single great Slavic nation united by culture, language and spirit. At every turn he laments the breakup of pre-soviet empire - the result of the insidious machinations of Poles and Austrians. Have a gander at this history lesson he gives. Ukrainians as a separate people was an invention of the Poles; its very name means "the periphery", the modern nation created by Lenin, its borders defined by the Soviet and built on historical Russian land etc. As you read along you get the idea that Putin perceive's the very existence of a separate Ukraine as a slight on the Russian soul. It's not the fall of the Soviet Union that he laments, so much as the disfigurement it caused to the prior empire.

You make sensible points with which I partly agree and I'm well aware of the liberties he took with History.

There's something common in every autocracy or dictatorship, the discourse served for domestic propaganda purposes including the appeal to a glorious past and rewriting History, which you have to separate from the actual facts. Belarus is already under Russian influence and Putin will never accept Ukraine as part of the Western sphere. That's not even conceivable for him and he will fight tooth and nail to prevent it. However "integrating" the whole Ukraine to Russian territory is not part of the plan. A regime change including some nips at Ukraine's territory? Sure. But anything else is fantasy. It simply is not feasible unless the Ukrainians agree to it and we both know that it's not the case.

The Baltic States are part of NATO, therefore untouchable. They're off-limits, their populations firmly against Russia and Putin knows it. As well as the fact that directly attacking NATO is committing suicide and serves no purpose other than potentially triggering WWIII. He wants a "strong", influential Russia, not a pile of rubble.

I refuse to give into the mass hysteria about an incoming Russian invasion of Europe or NATO members, whichever they are. It's utter rubbish to my eyes, Russia neither has the means nor the will to do it.

 

[nimic]

I refuse to give into the mass hysteria about an incoming Russian invasion of Europe or NATO members, whichever they are. It's utter rubbish to my eyes, Russia neither has the means nor the will to do it.

Replace the highlighted part with "Ukraine" and you get the most common opinion on February 23rd 2022, both on here and among political scientists and other experts.

 

[That_Bloke]

Replace the highlighted part with "Ukraine" and you get the most common opinion on February 23rd 2022, both on here and among political scientists and other experts.

As far as I know Ukraine wasn't part of NATO as of February 23rd 2022. On the other side, every Western European country (bar Austria and Switzerland) is, including the Baltic States.

Keyword here being NATO.

 

[Rajma]

As far as I know Ukraine wasn't part of NATO as of February 23rd 2022. On the other side, every Western European country (bar Austria and Switzerland) is, including the Baltic States.

Keyword here being NATO.

To activate NATO 5th article it’s not automatic at the end of the day political / parliamentary decisions are still required nevertheless. Same arguments that are being said now about the Ukraine will be used in the future not to do anything. Same escalatory rhetoric will be used by Russia again threatening nuclear armageddon on Paris / Berlin. The German chancellor just stated yesterday he won’t supply Ukraine with long-range missiles because he’s afraid of Russian response even after France/UK have already sent their SCALPs, do you know why? Because Germany doesn’t have the nukes. Now imagine Trump leaves NATO countries without the nuclear shield, I can bet my house most countries will back off fearing nuclear strikes when Russia begins raising stakes.

 

[nimic]

As far as I know Ukraine wasn't part of NATO as of February 23rd 2022. On the other side, every Western European country (bar Austria and Switzerland) is, including the Baltic States.

Keyword here being NATO.

Surely the key word was European or NATO?

But the point remains. Most people thought there was simply no way it was going to happen. What @Rajma says about NATO defending NATO allies is true. It's not a given, particularly not when the potential President of the most important NATO country constantly talks about not defending Europe.

 

[Raoul]

Surely the key word was European or NATO?

But the point remains. Most people thought there was simply no way it was going to happen. What @Rajma says about NATO defending NATO allies is true. It's not a given, particularly not when the potential President of the most important NATO country constantly talks about not defending Europe.

Spot on. People often forget Putin's template is very similar to the Soviet one. Expand and control. If its not a military invasion, its using the FSB and GRU to agitate and foment domestic discontent through tactics like election interference, assassinations, social media manipulation, and the support of nationalist, pro-Russia elements within various nations. In such cases, the name of the game is to destabilize from within, so they lack the democratic guile and fortitude to take action against his own actions elsewhere. He knows he can never retire from his dictatorship, so his fundamental goal is to not to die by being overthrown from within, which is why his only rational tactic is neo-imperialist attack and conquer.

 

[B. Munich]

It's his way to tell the European countries to step up to the plate when it comes to NATO

He even doesn't understand NATO. NATO isn't some kind of Mafia organisation where US is the godfather and collects 2% of the GDP of the other members for its protection.

Take a closer look at the West lead by the US behaved across the world in the past 75 years and I'm sure you'll understand what I'm getting at.

US foreign policy was full of mistakes. They fought many unnecessary and wrong wars indeed. However I can't remember of any war with purpose, like Putin in Ukraine, to conquer a nation and grab their land.

Long story short, from a US point of view, Ukraine is expendable (kinda), Taiwan is not. Unless the West, particularly the US, wants to give China, which is the real competitor, the keys to the Indo-Pacific, an even greater part of the world economy's pie and look like real clowns. That's something even Trump understands.

I don't doubt Trump knows about the significance of Taiwan.

My point was if Trump leaves Europe alone with Russia and Ukraine, it will seriously damage the transatlantic relationship for years to come.
Going against China will hurt European nations even more than sanctions against Russia. If China grabs Taiwan and the US going to war, I could see Europe will remain neutral like many of the states of the southern hemisphere.

 

[B. Munich]

But a demented idiot, Putin is not. People should be wise to that.

Putin is more and more in the same category as Hitler also reasoning wise.
He actually defended Hitler's invasion of Poland in the interview with Tucker Carlson.
I actually would prefer, if he was a demented idiot.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Its only strange in a context where we've completely internalised and normalised the concept of the USA being the world's eternal policeman. Not at all strange if you're a farmer in Alabama or a banker in NY wondering why your your country is sending so much money to a country and conflict that doesn't materially affect your day to day.

It makes complete sense to me that European countries should be taking up the overwhelming majority of the slack when it comes to defending a European country against a European aggressor, just as I would expect the USA to take up the overwhelming majority of the slack in a South American conflict or how I expect no European country other than perhaps the UK in name to actually do something concrete in a China Taiwan conflict, because they would not see the Western Pacific as 'their neighbourhood', while Japan would (and should) be far more invested.

Of course the USA is generally very globalist so they get involved in all of the above regardless, at present anyway.

Ok but this seems like a different argument. I'm saying nothing more than that it's unfair to claim that European nations are doing "significantly less" when the reality is that they are doing comparatively and collectively more. To put it differently, Alabama man saying the US is doing too much is different to saying that European nations are doing too little. He'll have to have an argument with Lockheed Leonard and Shale Oil Phil (which he'll probably lose).

 

[That_Bloke]

Surely the key word was European or NATO?

But the point remains. Most people thought there was simply no way it was going to happen. What @Rajma says about NATO defending NATO allies is true. It's not a given, particularly not when the potential President of the most important NATO country constantly talks about not defending Europe.

Then I should've been more precise and write "Western Europe and the Baltic States" who are all part of NATO for those who wouldn't understand what I'm getting at and gladly pin me down for it. A mistake on my part and I apologize for that.

I have a hard time taking seriously posters frothing at the mouth while ranting about Russian Orcs, even if I somewhat get where they're coming from.

And no, the point doesn't remain. I don't care about the orange madman's ramblings in the circus known as the US electoral campaign. There's a massive difference between a country that is officially backed by the most powerful one(s) in the world and one that isn't. A full-fledged NATO member benefits from a level of protection that Ukraine didn't have as of February 23rd of 2022 and that's a given.

And if NATO does indeed throw one of its members under the bus, then it deserves everything coming its way. Not that I believe that it will happen, mind. Or that Russia will attack a NATO member.

He even doesn't understand NATO. NATO isn't some kind of Mafia organisation where US is the godfather and collects 2% of the GDP of the other members for its protection.

US foreign policy was full of mistakes. They fought many unnecessary and wrong wars indeed. However I can't remember of any war with purpose, like Putin in Ukraine, to conquer a nation and grab their land.

I think that he understands NATO better than you and I do.

EDIT: Sorry, I thought you were talking about Putin, not Trump. Yes, I agree with you.

Then you remember it wrong. Land grab isn't the only way to conquer a nation and/or make it dance to your tune. And Ukraine isn't Vietnam, or Iraq, or Afghanistan. Or South America. The list is long.

 

[B. Munich]

According to the German weekly journal die Zeit the EU under van der Leyen will use frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for the Ukraine. It's about time!

In another article is reported that separatists in Transnistria have called Moscow for help....

 

[B. Munich]

I think that he understands NATO better than you and I do.

If he did, he would have never said these words.

Then you remember it wrong. Land grab isn't the only way to conquer a nation and/or make it dance to your tune. And Ukraine isn't Vietnam, or Iraq, or Afghanistan. Or South America. The list is long.

Yeah the US foreign policy of the last 75 years was full of disasters and terrible mistakes.
Still it's a complete other level (at least to me) what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Conquering a free nation and include into his Russian empire.

 

[Simbo]

According to the German weekly journal die Zeit the EU under van der Leyen will use frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for the Ukraine. It's about time!

In another article is reported that separatists in Transnistria have called Moscow for help....

She's strongly pushing for it, but I don't think its completely up to her.

 

[That_Bloke]

Spot on. People often forget Putin's template is very similar to the Soviet Western one. Expand and control. If its not a military invasion, its using the FSB CIA and GRU Western intelligence agencies to agitate and foment domestic discontent through tactics like election interference, assassinations, social media manipulation, and the support of nationalist, pro-Russia pro-Western elements within various nations. In such cases, the name of the game is to destabilize from within, so they lack the democratic guile and fortitude to take action against his their own actions elsewhere.

Fits to a tee, doesn't it?

Or is it only bad when the other one does it? Not that I condone the practice, mind.

 

[4bars]

Fits to a tee.

Or is it only bad when the other does it? Not that I condone the general practice, mind.

But...we are the good guys and do it for democracy

 

[Abizzz]

Fits to a tee.

Or is it only bad when the other does it? Not that I condone the general practice, mind.

What western one? 99% of the time the "west" is bickering with itself, be it Nato, European Union, Nafta etc. Yet they somehow all conspire internationally and keep everything under wraps? Sure...

 

[Raoul]

Putin is more and more in the same category as Hitler also reasoning wise.
He actually defended Hitler's invasion of Poland in the interview with Tucker Carlson.
I actually would prefer, if he was a demented idiot.

Correct. There’s increasingly little difference between the two, spare that Putin works through a more corporatist vertical of power. Even the interwar years that Hitler used to rise to power on the back of post WW1 grievances is eerily similar to Putin’s grievance about the end of the Soviet Union and his desire to reassert Russia into a similar role.

 

[That_Bloke]

If he did, he would have never said these words.

I somehow got sidetracked and thought that you were talking about Putin. Yeah, I agree, Trump doesn't understand NATO at all. So forget about my first reply. I'll also edit my original post.

Yeah the US foreign policy of the last 75 years was full of disasters and terrible mistakes.
Still it's a complete other level (at least to me) what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Conquering a free nation and include into his Russian empire.

Yeah, only to you.

You have a very narrow (and eurocentric) view of the world and apparently not the slightest clue about the scale of death, chaos and destruction the West unleashed across the world since the end of WWII for its own interests and expansion. But that's okay and you're not the only one in this thread.

Take a deep breath, you're panicking because it's suddenly happening way too close for your own comfort. It's not one of all those far away sub-countries no one gives a shit about or relates to, which had the misfortune of standing in the way of a superpower like Ukraine does right now. But fear not, for you belong to the chosen ones. The current predicament will sort itself out one way or another, without your way of life being affected for a very long time.

Also, Putin is bad and what he's currently doing is bad. Very bad.

I mean it.

Putin is more and more in the same category as Hitler also reasoning wise.
He actually defended Hitler's invasion of Poland in the interview with Tucker Carlson.
I actually would prefer, if he was a demented idiot.

That's one Godwin Award for you. Congratulations.

Yeah, he did. To gloss over and cover up for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Katyn massacre carried out by the Russians. Poland was considered as an enemy by the Soviet Union at the time (see Poland-Russia relations). It's utter bullshit and no one with basic history knowledge would fall for it. The problem is that not everyone has basic history knowledge, especially in the US, which was his target.

Nein, das würdest du dir nicht wünschen.

 

[That_Bloke]

But...we are the good guys and do it for democracy

Always.

It is a well known fact that Western interests democracy can be exported at gunpoint, for the greater good.

Buy, destabilize or bomb the shit out of anyone who thinks otherwise.

 

[Real Name]

So is there something to take from Putin's speech or its the same shit he always repeats?

There's something 1984 about his speeches. Not something a lot.

 

[nimic]

That's one Godwin Award for you. Congratulations.

Honestly, feck off with this. Godwin himself obviously never meant that literally all references to Hitler or the Nazis were invalid. Throwing around "hurr durr Godwin's Law" is the height of intellectual laziness, and doubly so when it's in response to a poster who specifically references Putin's own comments regarding Hitler and WW2. What do you do as a pastime, read the Wikipedia article on WW2 and go "one Godwin Award for you, I am very smart" after every paragraph?

 

[HTG]

Honestly, feck off with this. Godwin himself obviously never meant that literally all references to Hitler or the Nazis were invalid. Throwing around "hurr durr Godwin's Law" is the height of intellectual laziness, and doubly so when it's response to a poster who specifically references Putin's own comments regarding Hitler and WW2. What do you do as a pastime, read the Wikipedia article on WW2 and go "one Godwin Award for you, I am very smart" after every paragraph?

I love you for this post.

 

[Morty_]

Sweden joins NATO, yeah good, whatever.

Wish i could show more enthusiasm, but at this point, given how little the alliance cares about a battle-hardened Russia, in full war economy, running over Ukraine, i have little faith in the alliance doing much of anything when(not a matter of it) Russia goes into the baltics.

Yes yes, Ukraine isn't in NATO, but the amount of empty promises they give Ukraine, better not be what they give to actual members, cause if it is, this alliance will effectively be disbanded in a few years.

NATO should spend more time actually getting ready for Russia invading more of eastern Europe, instead of this.

 

[stefan92]

Sweden joins NATO, yeah good, whatever.

Wish i could show more enthusiasm, but at this point, given how little the alliance cares about a battle-hardened Russia, in full war economy, running over Ukraine, i have little faith in the alliance doing much of anything when(not a matter of it) Russia goes into the baltics.

Yes yes, Ukraine isn't in NATO, but the amount of empty promises they give Ukraine, better not be what they give to actual members, cause if it is, this alliance will effectively be disbanded in a few years.

NATO should spend more time actually getting ready for Russia invading more of eastern Europe, instead of this.

The Soviet Union wasn't beaten on the battlefield, it was beaten economically because it put to much emphasis on their military complex which it realistically couldn't keep up. It may sound cynical, but we are still not seeing Russia running over Ukraine but still having to grind out every little progress under heavy losses. Russia had to move to full war economy and neglect a lot of other economic branches, so their current economy is massively boosted by the war, but to finance that Russia needs to burn through it's reserves. NATO doesn't have to do that, they still are doing very little compared to what they could do if they decided to go full on war economy like Russia.

And even this little is enough to fully occupy the Russian army and to make them lose a lot of strategic targets. The Black Sea fleet is significantly weakened due to several losses and Ukraine effectively won back access to the western Black Sea. The Moskva is gone, which was the "carrier killer" and used to patrol in the Mediterranean as well for example, so due to this war Russia has no more strategic influence at sea in that area for example. They are also losing other important assets, like recently two A-50 AWACS planes and some fighter jets. They don't have many of the A-50 and can't replace them in the current situation.

I actually believe that the situation in the air is part of the reason why NATO isn't worrying much more than they do. It has been NATO focus for quite a long time to win air superiority and base all their operations on that. Russia isn't winning air-to-air fights, isn't penetrating or destroying Ukraine's air defense in any meaningful way and their own air defense systems obviously can quite often be destroyed even by Ukraine in the current situation. As long as NATO is confident to be able to win air superiority and then bomb everything into oblivion I expect them to stay relatively calm about Russian.

 

[Sly]

Honestly, feck off with this. Godwin himself obviously never meant that literally all references to Hitler or the Nazis were invalid. Throwing around "hurr durr Godwin's Law" is the height of intellectual laziness, and doubly so when it's in response to a poster who specifically references Putin's own comments regarding Hitler and WW2. What do you do as a pastime, read the Wikipedia article on WW2 and go "one Godwin Award for you, I am very smart" after every paragraph?

Great post. Those comebacks are even worse than just posting emojis.

 

[That_Bloke]

Honestly, feck off with this. Godwin himself obviously never meant that literally all references to Hitler or the Nazis were invalid. Throwing around "hurr durr Godwin's Law" is the height of intellectual laziness, and doubly so when it's in response to a poster who specifically references Putin's own comments regarding Hitler and WW2. What do you do as a pastime, read the Wikipedia article on WW2 and go "one Godwin Award for you, I am very smart" after every paragraph?

Honestly, right back at you. That goes for the ones who joined the mob and cheering at your incredible moment of self-righteous outrage (@HTG, @Red in STL and @Sly and all the ones who still didn't write about how cool you are but don't personally engage).

I'm tired of you nitpicking my comments. I'm one of the fews in this fecking thread who tries to express their opinion in more than a three words sentence or a Tweet. You can disagree with me, think that I'm light-years off the mark, a pro-Putin and that's totally okay. Personal insults not so much, even if you're a mod. I've made my thoughts as clear as I could, and I am by far no Putin fan or of what he's doing to Ukraine. I've specifically called out on Putin's BS on Poland. If you ever followed my posts, especially in the conversation with @B.Munich you'd know that I didn't bring Godwin just because I got tired.

Anyways, feel free to ban me from this thread or even of this forum if you think that I'm a negative contribution to it.