Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Russian Army is at NATO's doorstep because NATO has expanded towards Russia, rather than the other way around. For the last 50 years, NATO has functioned as an anti-Soviet (Russian) alliance, making it natural for Russia to view NATO's eastward expansion as a security threat. The continuous advance towards their border was inevitably going to provoke a response. This is pretty basic stuff.

Whatever you say, comrade.
 
Germany is Ukraine's largest military supporter in Europe. It stays that way. But one thing is clear: we will not become a warring party - neither directly nor indirectly. These two principles guide all my decisions.

 

This mindset needs to change. We (the collective west) must admit we are in (cold) war with Russia. By attacking Ukraine, Russia is attacking the entire international order. It is demonstrating that conquest through war is valid course of action. If we do not stop it, then it will happen again, whether by Russia, China or some other power.

Russia and Putin are threatening our way of life. We are at war, maybe not a hot one like Ukraine is, but an ideological one. We need to accept it and change our behaviour accordingly.
 
This mindset needs to change. We (the collective west) must admit we are in (cold) war with Russia. By attacking Ukraine, Russia is attacking the entire international order. It is demonstrating that conquest through war is valid course of action. If we do not stop it, then it will happen again, whether by Russia, China or some other power.

Russia and Putin are threatening our way of life. We are at war, maybe not a hot one like Ukraine is, but an ideological one. We need to accept it and change our behaviour accordingly.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
 
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I can't believe it is Macron who is asking for action! Of course, from this to actually doing anything meaningful is a loooong way...

I am so disappointed with the EU and US leaders. How is it possible to do so little to actually help Ukraine win the war? Are the Russians paying our politicians, or they are just useless?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe

French president admits no consensus exists on such a move as he urges fellow European leaders to take action rather than wait for US aid
 
I can't believe it is Macron who is asking for action! Of course, from this to actually doing anything meaningful is a loooong way...

I am so disappointed on EU and US leaders. How is it possible to do so little to actually help Ukraine win the war? Are the Russians paying our politicians, or they are just useless?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe

French president admits no consensus exists on such a move as he urges fellow European leaders to take action rather than wait for US aid

I was about to post the exact same story. Macron sure was the most unlikely source if we expected a change in the public discourse about what could happen in the future for Ukraine.

Many players within the western half of the EU need to wake up ASAP here.
 
I can't believe it is Macron who is asking for action! Of course, from this to actually doing anything meaningful is a loooong way...

I am so disappointed with the EU and US leaders. How is it possible to do so little to actually help Ukraine win the war? Are the Russians paying our politicians, or they are just useless?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe

French president admits no consensus exists on such a move as he urges fellow European leaders to take action rather than wait for US aid
He will never do it, because Germany's not on board and will never be. Nor will the other European countries. It's all bark and no bite. The idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine thus risking a direct armed confrontation with the Russians, belongs to fairy tales, and anyone believing in and/or supporting it, is clinically insane.

Macron is an opportunistic, self-interested weathercock without any political spine, always has been. The EU is feeling the heat from the US elections, and is working overtime to deprive Trump from ammunition about their lack of engagement in the Ukrainian war and the absence of a clear endgame. Also counter the domestic far-right questioning the rudderless, undecisive european conduct in this war and eating away voters. Macron's chest pumping coincidentally happens just after Ukraine lost Adviikha and is in dire need of at least some moral support, since the West failed to adequately supply them in terms of military material.

Europe will definitely up their military support though.
 
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If you factor in the current aid package in Congress (which will pass sooner or later) and the $300b in frozen Russian central bank reserves that are mostly controlled by European nations, it could easily keep things going for another 4-5 years, during which Putin will almost certainly run out of resources to keep going.

Are you sure?

First why haven't the 600+ billions USD in frozen Russian assets not yet used to support the Ukraine?

Second the Russian economy transitioned to a war economy and is doing actually much better than most European country parts.
Thus, I rather believe Russia can keep this war going for a longtime. Putin's cronies will even become richer and his power is cemented.

The problems will actually star when the war is over and the war economy has to transition again. Then the sanctions will hit and the loss in human resources will show.

Just my thoughts.
 
Either way if it comes to negotiations, Ukraine (or what's left of it) should become a NATO member to have some future guarantees at least. No way around it.

If Trump becomes the next president, NATO membership will mean nothing. Worrying times ahead.
 
If Trump becomes the next president, NATO membership will mean nothing. Worrying times ahead.
Part of me - the tinfoil head part - thinks Putin will give Trump a "victory" on Ukraine by allowing him to "negotiate" an end to the end to the conflict that clearly ends up with Russia getting some of it what it wants - which is probably control of some of the natural resources and technology in Ukraine, rather than actual or much occupied land. Russia has now officially encroached on NATO and the EU, Putin and Russia get richer, and Donnie can claim that only bc of him the conflict ended. Or am I reaching a lot here?
 
The Russian Army is at NATO's doorstep because NATO has expanded towards Russia, rather than the other way around. For the last 50 years, NATO has functioned as an anti-Soviet (Russian) alliance, making it natural for Russia to view NATO's eastward expansion as a security threat. The continuous advance towards their border was inevitably going to provoke a response. This is pretty basic stuff.

This is proper Russian propaganda. Do you really believe what you are writing here?

NATO is a pure defensive alliance. Only if one partner country is attacked article 5 will come into play.

Putin sees hates NATO not because it's a threat to Russia but because he can't attack and conquer (and win) any country being part of NATO. Their is zero threat from NATO to Russian sovereignty.

Thus, the biggest mistake, particularly from Merkel and Sarkozy was to veto Ukraine joining NATO. If the Ukraine had joined back then, we wouldn't be in this mess today.

Therefore, the opposite of what your are claiming is actually true.
 
Or am I reaching a lot here?

You might well be right. Like with the Taliban in Afghanistan Trump might make a deal with Putin, which will be a win for Putin and terrible for Ukrainians.
Of course Trump will praise himself endlessly as the man who ended the war.
 
Also counter the domestic far-right questioning the rudderless, undecisive european conduct in this war and eating away voters.

Well he won't win any voters neck from the far right with those statements.
Strangely (or not) most far right parties are openly supporting or in favor of Russia and Putin.

In Germany they demand to stop weapon deliveries to Ukraine, reach a deal with Putin asap and start importing cheap Russian gas and natural resources again.

As our economy is in tatters more and more Germans support this (wrong) strategy.
 
Well he won't win any voters neck from the far right with those statements.
Strangely (or not) most far right parties are openly supporting or in favor of Russia and Putin.

In Germany they demand to stop weapon deliveries to Ukraine, reach a deal with Putin asap and start importing cheap Russian gas and natural resources again.

As our economy is in tatters more and more Germans support this (wrong) strategy.
If Ukraine has such a far-right problem as some brainwashed by Russian propaganda kept telling us at the beginning of the war, how come none of these far-right parties across Europe actually support them? Russian disinformation machine has done such a number (and keeps doing it) on many stupid souls in the world.
 
If Ukraine has such a far-right problem as some brainwashed by Russian propaganda kept telling us at the beginning of the war, how come none of these far-right parties across Europe actually support them? Russian disinformation machine has done such a number (and keeps doing it) on many stupid souls in the world.
Cause they represent that part of the population that is not very bright and only interested in its national interests. Helping others affects your wallet and people don't want to do it hence supporting far right parties. That and usually the same far right parties have connection with Russia - either economically or based on historic relationship.
 
Well he won't win any voters neck from the far right with those statements.
Strangely (or not) most far right parties are openly supporting or in favor of Russia and Putin.

In Germany they demand to stop weapon deliveries to Ukraine, reach a deal with Putin asap and start importing cheap Russian gas and natural resources again.

As our economy is in tatters more and more Germans support this (wrong) strategy.
I know that much and it's also growing faster because Ukraine's military situation considerably worsened. That's the european domestic reality that can't be denied and saying people are dumb or wrong won't change it.

The far-right is feasting on this image of "weak" liberal democracies supporting a war dragging on without any clear end in sight for the benefit of the establishment (whatever that means for them), while the energy and food bills have exploded, especially in Germany where I happen to live too. What's driving people away from supporting Ukraine isn't so much the living costs than this "play it by ear" strategy adopted by the West. It's too muddled for a lot of them to get behind it, especially when their wallet is hit.
 
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Yeah, sorry. I've deleted the post.

In fairness I think part of the difference in rhetoric probably arises from where people are.

To someone living in the UK, France or Germany, the idea of our way of life changing because of Russia is generally incomprehensible. Russia are not going to attack those countries. Multiply this by 1000 for Americans.

To those in the Baltics or Finland etc, I can see how that outlook may be very different. Those countries have within living memory been under the rule of Russians or been attacked by them. Finland excepted, they're tiny countries.

Sure, they're in NATO but if someone like Trump is in charge....or if America takes a more isolationist stance in general again, are they going to do anything?

I don't think their fear or some of their rhetoric is misplaced to be honest, even if I don't personally agree with all of it.
 
If Ukraine has such a far-right problem as some brainwashed by Russian propaganda kept telling us at the beginning of the war,

I don't think the Nazi accusations play any role in Germany.

Many people realize that the country is in decline, prosperity is endangered and it's only the beginning. They see the Ukraine as a very corrupt country, which is neither part of the EU nor NATO. So why should Germany risk is prosperity? Many also don't want the Ukraine to become a member of the EU because in the end it will cost Germany again billions of Euro in money transfers, especially after the country is war ridden.

The failed counter offensive last year and Russian troops progressing lately also play a significant role. More and more Germans are just saying it's not our war, Ukraine won't win anyway and are afraid with a Trump presidency looming all efforts are in vain anyway.
Thus they believe it will better to negotiate a deal and get cheap energy from Russia again to revive or industry which otherwise might be lost for good.

I don't agree with them but there numbers are growing every day with Germany's economy declining steadily since the war started.
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I don't think the Nazi accusations play any role in Germany.

Many people realize that the country is in decline, prosperity is endangered and it's only the beginning. They see the Ukraine as a very corrupt country, which is neither part of the EU nor NATO. So why should Germany risk is prosperity? Many also don't want the Ukraine to become a member of the EU because in the end it will cost Germany again billions of Euro in money transfers, especially after the country is war ridden.

The failed counter offensive last year and Russian troops progressing lately also play a significant role. More and more Germans are just saying it's not our war, Ukraine won't win anyway and are afraid with a Trump presidency looming all efforts are in vain anyway.
Thus they believe it will better to negotiate a deal and get cheap energy from Russia again to revive or industry which otherwise might be lost for good.

I don't agree with them but there numbers are growing every day with Germany's economy declining steadily since the war started.
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Even when we ignore the current economical trouble, we have a very simple reason why lots of Germans simply don't want to pay anymore: We have the highest per capita spending for the EU. We are 15th in the EU for per capita median wealth. This is a massive issue and more and more people are asking how can this be? Why does a country that isn't rich (anymore) has to pay for everything while richer countries don't?

Whenever we hear demands that Germany has to step up support from countries who are ahead of us in such rankings, it does push people away from supporting the cause. It's a very simple financial logic, and the economic issues caused by the war really play into this and sharpen the focus on this topic. Personally I think that we have a big issue that we have a mostly left-leaning leadership that lives in a wealthy bubble and doesn't really get that this is what a lot of people worry about today. Right wing parties are having a field day because our left wing parties don't acknowledge this reality, and as this is going on for years, the issues are ever increasing.
 
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In fairness I think part of the difference in rhetoric probably arises from where people are.

To someone living in the UK, France or Germany, the idea of our way of life changing because of Russia is generally incomprehensible. Russia are not going to attack those countries. Multiply this by 1000 for Americans.

To those in the Baltics or Finland etc, I can see how that outlook may be very different. Those countries have within living memory been under the rule of Russians or been attacked by them. Finland excepted, they're tiny countries.

Sure, they're in NATO but if someone like Trump is in charge....or if America takes a more isolationist stance in general again, are they going to do anything?

I don't think their fear or some of their rhetoric is misplaced to be honest, even if I don't personally agree with all of it.
And yet it's already changing due to Russia's influence. Brexit? Rise of far-right parties that are supported by Russia? After all the meddling that Russia is doing in election processes and thus trying to weaken western democracies, it's obvious they are in cold war with us. I don't think that Russia will attack any time soon NATO countries (although they might test the alliance by attacking Baltics), however if they succeed with land grab in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. It will send a message to everyone in the world that conquest through war is possible again. That international borders mean nothing.

What's to stop from other countries attacking neighbors? I firmly believe that if Russia wins it will lead to further destabilization of western democracies and unity. It will lead to rise more of autocratic leaders like Orban in Hungary. Democracies want peace because it helps their citizens, but autocrats love war as it entrenches their leadership. We are already seeing the rise of nationalism in many countries and where nationalists govern there is more chance of war.

I want to be wrong, but if Russia wins I wouldn't be surprised if there is another hot war in Europe (not necessary with Russia as a direct participant).
 
In fairness I think part of the difference in rhetoric probably arises from where people are.

To someone living in the UK, France or Germany, the idea of our way of life changing because of Russia is generally incomprehensible. Russia are not going to attack those countries. Multiply this by 1000 for Americans.

To those in the Baltics or Finland etc, I can see how that outlook may be very different. Those countries have within living memory been under the rule of Russians or been attacked by them. Finland excepted, they're tiny countries.

Sure, they're in NATO but if someone like Trump is in charge....or if America takes a more isolationist stance in general again, are they going to do anything?

I don't think their fear or some of their rhetoric is misplaced to be honest, even if I don't personally agree with all of it.

Germany in particular should not even think that way because half of the country tasted Soviet control for 44 years while the other half (and West Berlin) had to worry for a possible attack from the East during that same period of time. I seriously expected Germany to be in the same camp as the Baltic states, Finland, Poland or even the Czechs as nations with bad memories of Soviet/Russian control.

As for the likes of France and the UK, we have seen what Russian influence can do with open support for the Le Pens and with Brexit. They are already fecking things up in both countries and it will take a lot of efforts (and political will) to solve the problems.

Putin's own vision of Russia bears strong similarities with Hitler's vision of Germany, both fueled by personal grudges against those who defeated them in previous conflicts.This is what the whole of Europe needs to understand altogether.
 
Germany in particular should not even think that way because half of the country tasted Soviet control for 44 years while the other half (and West Berlin) had to worry for a possible attack from the East during that same period of time. I seriously expected Germany to be in the same camp as the Baltic states, Finland, Poland or even the Czechs as nations with bad memories of Soviet/Russian control.
When you expected that, you missed two key points: Over decades, there has been a slow improvement of the relations between West Germany and the Soviet Union/Russia. First economical deals were made in the 70s (about gas pipelines for example, a continuous topic until today), later on the improved relations allowed a peaceful reunification and end to the occupation of Germany in 1990 (remember: the biggest obstacle for this among the occupation powers wasn't the Gorbachev, it was Thatcher). Which was a lot different to how the end of the SU developed in the Baltic states.

And when we look at the East German perspective: Yes, lots of people suffered under the socialist dictatorship there. But also lots of people suffered due to the struggles of the reunification process, they lost their jobs, their social security, their purpose and you can see and feel this still in a lot of areas there. For those people things were (or at least felt) better while living under Soviet leadership. Ultimately it was a minority of a minority that really suffered (a lot) under them.
 
This is proper Russian propaganda. Do you really believe what you are writing here?

NATO is a pure defensive alliance. Only if one partner country is attacked article 5 will come into play.

Putin sees hates NATO not because it's a threat to Russia but because he can't attack and conquer (and win) any country being part of NATO. Their is zero threat from NATO to Russian sovereignty.

Thus, the biggest mistake, particularly from Merkel and Sarkozy was to veto Ukraine joining NATO. If the Ukraine had joined back then, we wouldn't be in this mess today.

Therefore, the opposite of what your are claiming is actually true.
He's always beating the same drum.
 
We have the highest per capita spending for the EU. We are 15th in the EU for per capita median wealth.

This can't be true. Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands all have a higher per capita spending. (At least they had until the pandemic).

However, I heard lately from several sources that Germany spent nearly 20 billions for Ukraine while France and UK not even spent 1 billion. If true, then I can completely understand the anger of many Germans.
 
When you expected that, you missed two key points: Over decades, there has been a slow improvement of the relations between West Germany and the Soviet Union/Russia. First economical deals were made in the 70s (about gas pipelines for example, a continuous topic until today), later on the improved relations allowed a peaceful reunification and end to the occupation of Germany in 1990 (remember: the biggest obstacle for this among the occupation powers wasn't the Gorbachev, it was Thatcher). Which was a lot different to how the end of the SU developed in the Baltic states.

This is true. Thatcher was against the unification. She and Mitterrand demanded from Kohl to give up the D-Mark and agree to the Euro, because they were afraid Germany might become to powerful again. Unfortunately, Kohl agreed, which he should never have.
Gorbachev is very popular in Germany and enjoys the status of rockstar in East Germany.

And when we look at the East German perspective: Yes, lots of people suffered under the socialist dictatorship there. But also lots of people suffered due to the struggles of the reunification process, they lost their jobs, their social security, their purpose and you can see and feel this still in a lot of areas there. For those people things were (or at least felt) better while living under Soviet leadership. Ultimately it was a minority of a minority that really suffered (a lot) under them.
You are correct but still I absolutely don't understand the East Germans. The unification was poorly managed, plenty of mistakes were done but still their life improved tremendously in the last 20 to 30 years. Not even talking about the freedom to travel they got. I get extremely angry when I hear them talking in the old GDR everything was better, because it utter nonsense.
 
Germany in particular should not even think that way because half of the country tasted Soviet control for 44 years while the other half (and West Berlin) had to worry for a possible attack from the East during that same period of time. I seriously expected Germany to be in the same camp as the Baltic states, Finland, Poland or even the Czechs as nations with bad memories of Soviet/Russian control.

Thinking rationally you are absolutely correct. I never understood the love Russia und especially Putin got from many of my countrymen.
The most strange thing is that's is especially the East Germans who trend to be pro Russia. They actually should know better from their history but it seems their memory is clouded.
Totally different from Poland and the Baltic states which didn't forget the hardship and lag of freedom they suffered under Russian rule.
 

I mean, he has a point. If you take it in a literal sense then yes, Putin attacking the UK militarily is implausibile.

But the attack on our elections, our infrastructure, our public discouse, hell even our citizens.. yes, Russia and Putin could be said to be threatening our way of life. He's definitely contributed to the current climate.
 
Thinking rationally you are absolutely correct. I never understood the love Russia und especially Putin got from many of my countrymen.
The most strange thing is that's is especially the East Germans who trend to be pro Russia. They actually should know better from their history but it seems their memory is clouded.
Totally different from Poland and the Baltic states which didn't forget the hardship and lag of freedom they suffered under Russian rule.

When i was in Germany (admittedly most political discussion being in academic settings, not on "the street") the impression i had was if there was "love", it was for the way the reunification and breakup of ussr had been handled. There wasn't a lot of pro-putin sentiment there, but for political circles it shouldn't be difficult to understand why typical 90s/00s centrist to right leaning neoliberals in Europe/US would initially like Putin (especially '00s pre Georgia invasion one)...he's a corrupt, unscrupulous right wing capitalist with seemingly no underpinning ideology that would be an external threat, someone that is not too hard to make money and do business with. Sure, he's more corrupt, militaristic, nationalistic than anything most western euro politicians would openly support domestically at the time, but, hell, so are Dubya Bush and his ilk... as long as he keeps that shit in his own country against the muslims, or outside Europe, then let the big business deals commence and the money flow. Same thing with the Chinese when they became more open.
 
When i was in Germany (admittedly most political discussion being in academic settings, not on "the street") the impression i had was if there was "love", it was for the way the reunification and breakup of ussr had been handled. There wasn't a lot of pro-putin sentiment there, but for political circles it shouldn't be difficult to understand why typical 90s/00s centrist to right leaning neoliberals in Europe/US would initially like Putin (especially '00s pre Georgia invasion one)..
At the time he held a relatively impressive speech (in German!) in the German parliament which sounded quite open minded and reaching out in friendship. I am not sure if it was already cynically calculated to give this impression at the time, or if it was close to the truth and Putin spiralled further to the dark side due to disappointed hopes, but at the time it felt like a closer integration of Russia into the rest of Europe would be possible. It took (and still takes some people) a lot of time to realize that this impression that was created in the early 2000s isn't the truth (not anymore at least).
 
This can't be true. Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands all have a higher per capita spending. (At least they had until the pandemic).

However, I heard lately from several sources that Germany spent nearly 20 billions for Ukraine while France and UK not even spent 1 billion. If true, then I can completely understand the anger of many Germans.

That is not true.

UK assistance
The UK is one of the leading donors to Ukraine, alongside the US and Germany. The UK has pledged almost £12 billion in overall support to Ukraine since February 2022, of which £7.1 billion is for military assistance. £2.3 billion was provided in the financial years 2022/23 and 2023/24 and on 12 January 2024, the Government announced a further £2.5 billion of funding for 2024/25.

The UK is providing both lethal and non-lethal weaponry, including tanks, air defence systems and long-range precision strike missiles. While the UK has committed to training Ukrainian fast jet pilots, combat fighter aircraft will not be provided.

The UK is also hosting a training programme (Operation Interflex), which is supported by several allies. Over 30,000 Ukrainian personnel have been trained so far, with the aim of training a further 10,000 by mid-2024.
 
If Trump becomes the next president, NATO membership will mean nothing. Worrying times ahead.

Y'know, part of me thinks that might work out just fine. Disband NATO then Poland or whoever can independently march into Ukraine and feck them up without worry of dragging in the wider alliance.
 
Y'know, part of me thinks that might work out just fine. Disband NATO then Poland or whoever can independently march into Ukraine and feck them up without worry of dragging in the wider alliance.
This is fantasy. Poland is not going to intervene.
 
That is not true.

UK assistance
The UK is one of the leading donors to Ukraine, alongside the US and Germany. The UK has pledged almost £12 billion in overall support to Ukraine since February 2022, of which £7.1 billion is for military assistance. £2.3 billion was provided in the financial years 2022/23 and 2023/24 and on 12 January 2024, the Government announced a further £2.5 billion of funding for 2024/25.

The UK is providing both lethal and non-lethal weaponry, including tanks, air defence systems and long-range precision strike missiles. While the UK has committed to training Ukrainian fast jet pilots, combat fighter aircraft will not be provided.

The UK is also hosting a training programme (Operation Interflex), which is supported by several allies. Over 30,000 Ukrainian personnel have been trained so far, with the aim of training a further 10,000 by mid-2024.

Yeah you are right. However I'm correct about the assistance of France, Italy and Spain. They just a fraction of the money Germany is providing.