Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I hope they get back to their families soon.Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine since start of invasion, says Ukrainian military
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...-kyiv-attack-ad3eef50f980a4df023fad78d7bc197d
Surely thats a project that has take a long time to finish? Perhaps longer than the war will last unless its going to last for a long time?
A very long time. In comparison, it took 17 years with Japan at the peak of its economic powers to finish construction of the Seikan Tunnel linking Hokkaido with Honshu under the seabed of the Tsugaru Strait (1971-1988). The undersea portion of the Seikan Tunnel is 23.3 km long while the current Kerch Bridge is 18.1 km long. Hence it is a major investment and technological challenge to consider about, especially when no one knows if Russian public finances can absorb the hit any time soon.
This is what worries me. I think European governments in particular have to show some backbone and tell the people that some significant and urgent investment is needed to safeguard the future of Europe. It will be unpalatable for a section of the electorate but necessary.
Create a European military programme that will build up factories to produce a steady supply of enough of what Ukraine needs to prevail. Loitering munitions, drones, EW defences, AA batteries, tanks, artillery, IFVs and ammunition’s for all of the above.
If Russia is aiming to spend 10% of its GDP on the war in 2024, I would say Europe should aim to spend at least 4-5% to make sure Ukraine is well supplied. If Russia loses this war it could buy the continent another 50 years of peace. It’ll be money well spent.
BBC: 650,000 conscription-aged men have left Ukraine for Europe
https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-650-000-conscription-aged-men-have-left-ukraine-for-europe/
Its going to come back to bite the EU at some point.
Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine if they can get it, Russia will eventually go into NATO-countries, maybe not directly at first, but one way or another, they will chip away at eastern Europe.
Russia needs to be treated as an existential threat, not just to Ukraine, but to central and northern Europe as well, they have to be stopped in Ukraine, before they ruin even more countries.
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I fear that too.
The inefficiencies of democracy are exposed. Some European politicians are deep in Russian pockets. But most are simply looking short-term (next election) and are burying their head in the sand, ostrich-like, about the long term dangers of relying solely on NATO/US for security. It will just take one terrible election result in the US, like Trump being re-elected, for the whole security net to disappear under our feet.
Europe needs to mature politically, to move on from being just an economic union and to start taking shit seriously. Beginning with border security and defence, which requires common strategy, planning and funding. Otherwise when shit actually hits the fan it’ll be everyone for themselves and the chips will fall one by one.
Some countries, like Poland, are taking the threat seriously, and are thinking long term, but most are not, unfortuantely.
I would have done the same.
Well, now we go back to the manpower problem, which I have been saying since last year. 50k newly trained bridges to get about 5 miles into the Russian lines is bad, no matter how you look at it. It is not great for Ukraine, with no one seemingly paying much attention (or support) now.
I am hoping that the West, especially the U.S., learns some lessons from this war before jumping into war with the likes of China in the future without the infrastructure to produce enough equipment. They won't even have enough ships (fewer than 300) by the time China is ready, which is around 2027, according to some.
I am hoping that the West, especially the U.S., learns some lessons from this war before jumping into war with the likes of China in the future without the infrastructure to produce enough equipment. They won't even have enough ships (fewer than 300) by the time China is ready, which is around 2027, according to some.
When China is ready for what?
According to some U.S. intelligence, Xi is making sure their troops are ready by 2027, presumably, for grabbing Taiwan and he wants it within this decade.
Hopefully, Russia is kicked out of Ukraine by then, but it feels they are in it for the long haul, years of stalemate is a pretty likely scenario.
The US won't be able to commit to both places at the same time, hopefully the EU has increased its military capabilities significantly by then, but I wouldn't count on it.
Apparently, the U.S. Navy needs a significant upgrade (which may be too late) if they are to face the Chinese there.
The Chinese are producing cheap but effective weapons in mass quantities to attack ships, and they will have 400 ships by then too.
Right now, the U.S and Europe are struggling to refill their ammunition. The (long) Ukraine war actually benefits Xi in certain way because of it.
All of Europe is increasing defence budgets and ramping up production of new equipment and ammunition. If Xi wants a weak NATO, the Ukraine war was not a good thing at all.
He doesn't actually need NATO to be weakened because I really doubt it would be involved with the Taiwan stuff. However, the U.S. is having a hard time refilling and upgrading its own military due to the Ukraine and the Israel thing (since they are the main provider), which is what he would seek.
Europe's increasing defense budgets are for their own, which makes sense. And it still does not help much with the Ukraine's ability against the Russia at this moment and probably won't in the future too. Politically, the will to war or help would be getting weaker as it may already be happening in the Europe which is something Xi takes as good.
Also, it seems that the U.S. shipment/aid for Taiwan defense has recently been delayed due to the shortage apparently. We don't see that in the headline much. We only saw how Russian is fecking up stuff.
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The US has committed barely anything to Ukraine, relatively speaking. Certainly nothing it needs to deter China.
Compared to GDP, east european countries are contributing the most, creds to them, but you need absolute numbers, which really only the US can give, since major nations in Europe aren't increasing production nearly enough.
The US military strategy against China is actually a very different one than the traditional use of planes or ships, and is instead based on data supremacy, which is where most of a war with China would be waged - not through traditional antiquated hardware like ships, tanks etc
Big snow storm along central Ukraine right now, heading NE, might miss the combat zones.
China is trying to get the U.S ships out of South China Sea and around to dominate the area. To do that, they are increasing their Navy presence and actual hardware. Data supremacy alone would do nothing at all if the U.S Navy does not have actual hardware itself there. We are talking about the home advantage that the U.S does not have.
Not to mentioned China is rapidly catching up in computing power/AI to the West.
Was watching a decent video exploring the US's presence around Taiwan. They mentioned that the US is actually pretty well placed in that region. They have bases in Japan, South Korea to cover the east, the Philippines to cover the south and Singapore to cover the west. Add in further strategic islands dotted around, along with Pearl Harbour they have a pretty good starting base for defending against China. Also with the way Taiwans geography is set up China only really has one route to attack without having to break through the US defensive lines and that route is where Taiwan will have most of their defences based. Obviously things like amount of ships, quality of ships apply but the US has a pretty decent physical base of presence in that area it seems.
This is going to be good.
Putin Has Staked Russia’s Resources on Victory in Ukraine. Can the West Match Him?
https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-has...-the-west-match-him-b5d7b5f2?mod=hp_lead_pos5
I posted a video in the cold war - China thread for a different perspective. Anyway, I don't want to talk about China here. But to make it clear, I am not calling for the U.S. to start a war with China. I am hoping either Xi left Taiwan alone or the U.S. left alone them if Taiwaneses wants to join the mainland China. I just hope the U.S. didn't go in with half-ass measured and stir up more shit in that region.
Back on the Ukraine, they just need to do what the Russians do. Dig deep and wide and put shit loads of mine to defend their lines. They are not going anywhere forward fast for now.
Odd... Putin late on payment perhaps.
The woman in green has a PhD (or a doctorate to be precise, the system is a bit different in Russia), funnily enough. Hypocrite.
Wife of Ukraine spy chief Budanov poisoned apparently.
Tanks may not feature that prominently but I can't seriously take the ship being antiquated when talking about defending an island nation.