Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

JuriM said:
https://news.err.ee/1609167412/ppa-...-border-crossings-if-migration-pressure-rises

Finland & Estonia are under mass immigration hybrid attacks by Russia.



Zelensky briefing the international media on potential Russian hybrid attacks regarding Serbian - Kosovo - Bosnia line.
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Surely the Serbian leadership is not as stupid as to allow the country to be used as a distraction tactic by the Kremlin and to risk another NATO campaign against it for absolutely no benefit to itself. Surely?!?
 
The Kremlin is also attempting to replenish its shrinking population with Ukrainian refugees, some of whom were forcibly moved to Russia, as well as stolen Ukrainian children — a war crime, for which the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants against Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, Maria Lvova-Belova.

Russia says it has taken at least 700,000 children.
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Rybar (Russian milblogger) reports that Armenia (member of Russia's "anti-NATO" CSTO) is delivering up to 200 Tochka-U missiles (ballistic missiles with up to 150km range)... to Ukraine. If true this would be another step in the massive strategic shift Armenia makes away from Russia after Russia failed to fulfill it's duty to support Armenia in the recent skirmishes and short war against Azerbaijan.

Putting aside Ukraine for the moment as a result of this war we have seen Finland and Sweden moving towards NATO membership and Armenia and Kazakhstan moving away from Russia as a strategic partner/leader. Even if Russia should conquer the whole Ukraine it would still have lost strategic influence in Europe and Asia.
 
Apologies if posted earlier. Beats a Canadian shot iirc but without the advantages of thinner air & elevation. This shot was done over flat terrain...


 
calodo2003 said:
Apologies if posted earlier. Beats a Canadian shot iirc but without the advantages of thinner air & elevation. This shot was done over flat terrain...


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Yep, the previous record (3,540 meters; 3,871 yards) belonged to a Canadian JTF2 soldier firing his McMillan TAC-50 rifle against an ISIS soldier in 2017. This shot by the Ukrainian sniper was made at a distance of 3,800 meters (4,156 yards) with a rifle that no one knows anything about it.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Yep, the previous record (3,540 meters; 3,871 yards) belonged to a Canadian JTF2 soldier firing his McMillan TAC-50 rifle against an ISIS soldier in 2017. This shot by the Ukrainian sniper was made at a distance of 3,800 meters (4,156 yards) with a rifle that no one knows anything about it.
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Just read an article which had the rifle’s specs in it. I’ll try to find it again & post it on here.

e - never knew there was a US version of The Sun…

https://www.the-sun.com/news/9664246/ukraine-sniper-new-world-record-longest-kill-russia/amp/
 
ExoduS said:
War in Ukraine is the fault of US and NATO | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman - YouTube

If you can get passed a title and first 5 minutes it is actually a very good conversation.
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His argument on Russia and Ukraine is incredibly flawed. He claims Putin is acting on insecurity because he fears NATO expansion, which completely ignores the deeper issue that Putin is acting based on insecurity because he fears a strong, Democratic Ukraine on Russian borders would animate Russians to overthrow him so they could live in a similar system. This is why Realism has its limits when analyzing international politics. Its all state centric and ignores the motivations of specific individual actors (which can generally only be assessed through constructivism).
 
stefan92 said:
Putting aside Ukraine for the moment as a result of this war we have seen Finland and Sweden moving towards NATO membership and Armenia and Kazakhstan moving away from Russia as a strategic partner/leader. Even if Russia should conquer the whole Ukraine it would still have lost strategic influence in Europe and Asia.
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Hard disagree. Relationships and influence can be repaired pretty quickly. Or countries can be cowed into submission in the event of a Russian victory. Who would help Kazakhstan if Russia turns her gaze on it, in the aftermath of a Russian victory in Ukraine? No one. So within a 10-20 year period, Kazakhstan will come begrudgingly back to the fold.

On the other hand land gains are very hard to reverse. Russia would have massively increased its area (Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe after Russia), it would have massively increased its populace by more than 25%, reversing years of demographic decline, and will be in control of the biggest grain producing/exporting area in Europe.

There is no sugar coating it. Russia subjugating all of Ukraine will be nothing but an unmitigated disaster. Everything else would be just empty words to make us feel better.
 
calodo2003 said:
Apologies if posted earlier. Beats a Canadian shot iirc but without the advantages of thinner air & elevation. This shot was done over flat terrain...


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almost 4 kilometers... hey could assassinate any high profile politician with the appropriate positioning
 
Raoul said:
His argument on Russia and Ukraine is incredibly flawed. He claims Putin is acting on insecurity because he fears NATO expansion, which completely ignores the deeper issue that Putin is acting based on insecurity because he fears a strong, Democratic Ukraine on Russian borders would animate Russians to overthrow him so they could live in a similar system. This is why Realism has its limits when analyzing international politics. Its all state centric and ignores the motivations of specific individual actors (which can generally only be assessed through constructivism).
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And the invasion of Ukraine has given a new life to NATO. Everyone realizes again why it's good to be in it. Finland and Sweden felt compelled to join because of the invasion.

Putin would have been better off remaining low-key and spread the word that NATO is irrelevant in this day and age, while propping up anti-NATO parties in Europe.
 
MadMike said:
Hard disagree. Relationships and influence can be repaired pretty quickly. Or countries can be cowed into submission in the event of a Russian victory. Who would help Kazakhstan if Russia turns her gaze on it, in the aftermath of a Russian victory in Ukraine? No one. So within a 10-20 year period, Kazakhstan will come begrudgingly back to the fold.
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I don't see this. Which country that left "the Russian fold" since the collapse of the Soviet Union really returned? Almost all of the eastern European states are now members of EU and NATO, Kazakhstan is obviously looking more towards China, Armenia has been assisted by the US to broker peace with Azerbaijan and won't look back at Russia, possibly only Georgia has become more Russia-friendly again after it's flirt with NATO membership and the war they had a decade ago.

Of course that doesn't mean that Russia has lost all its influence and it also doesn't mean that they can't regain that, but they will have to pay a price for that. It's pretty obvious that sanctions for high-tech equipment didn't stop Russia from getting stuff, but it also looks like the countries supporting Russia now know that Russia depends on them and that lets their confidence grow when dealing with Russia.
 
For those interested, the channel Hromadske often puts English subtitles on their videos. All you need to do is put the subtitle setting on. The interviews with frontline soldiers are raw.

I want to remind you that we are not at war with the Russians. We are at war with beasts in human form.
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They (Russians) tortured him, cut off his genitals, chopped off his fingers with an ax, tortured him as best as they could in front of his wife and children. His wife was raped. And what, are they not beasts in human form?
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To be honest, they hate us, and we hate them.
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If not for the volunteers, we would be fecked here.
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The Russians are all drinking. They also shoot at eachother. At five in the morning I hear "feck you, no feck you!" 70 meters away, we can hear them.
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We have few patriots left. Very few.
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VorZakone said:
For those interested, the channel Hromadske often puts English subtitles on their videos. All you need to do is put the subtitle setting on. The interviews with frontline soldiers are raw.

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It was an excellent video. Thanks for sharing.
 
Raoul said:
The counteroffensive continues.



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It looks like Ukraine may have established a permanent foothold on the opposite side of the river, all well and good, can't help but feel this offensive will grind to a complete halt very soon too though, as every other front has.

It takes time to move things across water, Russia has plenty of time to dig trenches and place mines literally everywhere.
 
The BBC ran a similar story to the above a few days ago:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67452832


"Fatigue is the main thing, and it kills any motivation," explains a soldier with a mortar crew in the Zaporizhzhia region.
He's fighting with the 46th brigade in an area where Russian defences are at their strongest.
"We've killed many Russians, but lost no fewer," says the soldier. "Anyone who complained was removed from their position."

And elsewhere on the front:

From his position, as a rank-and-file soldier on the front line, Denys has seen a horrifying human cost on his own side of the incremental breakthroughs in recapturing territory. "The commander throws anyone - cooks or drivers - into the furnace. They simply die there in their hundreds."
"Those commanders will have to be arrested and tried after the war," he says.
 
Civilian death toll in Ukraine tops 10,000

GENEVA, Nov 21 (Reuters) - More than 10,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022, with about half of recent deaths occurring far behind the front lines, the U.N. Human Rights Office said on Tuesday.

The U.N. human rights mission in Ukraine, which has dozens of monitors in the country, said it expects the real toll to be "significantly higher" than the official tally since corroboration work is ongoing.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...tops-10000-un-human-rights-office-2023-11-21/
 
stefan92 said:
I don't see this. Which country that left "the Russian fold" since the collapse of the Soviet Union really returned? Almost all of the eastern European states are now members of EU and NATO, Kazakhstan is obviously looking more towards China, Armenia has been assisted by the US to broker peace with Azerbaijan and won't look back at Russia, possibly only Georgia has become more Russia-friendly again after it's flirt with NATO membership and the war they had a decade ago.
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I mean, you literally provided the example case in your comment. Georgia did. And it’s quite probable same would happen to Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus in failing to escape Moscow’s orbit, should Russia win.

I would argue from your original examples that Finland, already an EU member, joining NATO makes zero difference. It was already out of Moscow’s orbit for a long time. Sweden wasn’t ever even in it. And the Baltics will have been in NATO for 20 years next year.

I really cannot see how Russia is more weakened and isolated, should it win. It’s make-believe stuff. It might not gain any new friends (although it very evidently does, in Africa and S.America) but it will certainly tighten its hold on existing satellite states. Which would be stopping a negative trend for them, of over 30 years.
 
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VorZakone said:
First public protest in Moscow apparently.

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It’s certainly not the first since the invasion (I’ve participated in a few myself) but probably the first more or less public protest since the new laws were introduced.

It’s important to notice that they were a part of a different demonstration (by the Russian communist party) that had nothing to do with the war and weren’t protesting the war directly (only wanted their husbands to be sent back — they agitate for rotation, not for the end of the war). But I’ll take it, it’s better than nothing.
 
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