Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

nimic said:
All of Europe is increasing defence budgets and ramping up production of new equipment and ammunition. If Xi wants a weak NATO, the Ukraine war was not a good thing at all.
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He doesn't actually need NATO to be weakened because I really doubt it would be involved with the Taiwan stuff. However, the U.S. is having a hard time refilling and upgrading its own military due to the Ukraine and the Israel thing (since they are the main provider), which is what he would seek.

Europe's increasing defense budgets are for their own, which makes sense. And it still does not help much with the Ukraine's ability against the Russia at this moment and probably won't in the future too. Politically, the will to war or help would be getting weaker as it may already be happening in the Europe which is something Xi takes as good.

Also, it seems that the U.S. shipment/aid for Taiwan defense has recently been delayed due to the shortage apparently. We don't see that in the headline much. We only saw how Russian is fecking up stuff.
 
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Morty_ said:
Hopefully, Russia is kicked out of Ukraine by then, but it feels they are in it for the long haul, years of stalemate is a pretty likely scenario.

The US won't be able to commit to both places at the same time, hopefully the EU has increased its military capabilities significantly by then, but I wouldn't count on it.
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The US has committed barely anything to Ukraine, relatively speaking. Certainly nothing it needs to deter China.
 
Simbo said:
The US has committed barely anything to Ukraine, relatively speaking. Certainly nothing it needs to deter China.
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Compared to GDP, east european countries are contributing the most, creds to them, but you need absolute numbers, which really only the US can give, since major nations in Europe aren't increasing production nearly enough.
 
The United said:
Apparently, the U.S. Navy needs a significant upgrade (which may be too late) if they are to face the Chinese there.

The Chinese are producing cheap but effective weapons in mass quantities to attack ships, and they will have 400 ships by then too.

Right now, the U.S and Europe are struggling to refill their ammunition. The (long) Ukraine war actually benefits Xi in certain way because of it.
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The US military strategy against China is actually a very different one than the traditional use of planes or ships, and is instead based on data supremacy, which is where most of a war with China would be waged - not through traditional antiquated hardware like ships, tanks etc
 
Big snow storm along central Ukraine right now, heading NE, might miss the combat zones.

 
Raoul said:
The US military strategy against China is actually a very different one than the traditional use of planes or ships, and is instead based on data supremacy, which is where most of a war with China would be waged - not through traditional antiquated hardware like ships, tanks etc
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China is trying to get the U.S ships out of South China Sea and around to dominate the area. To do that, they are increasing their Navy presence and actual hardware. Data supremacy alone would do nothing at all if the U.S Navy does not have actual hardware itself there. We are talking about the home advantage that the U.S does not have.

Not to mentioned China is rapidly catching up in computing power/AI to the West.
 
The United said:
China is trying to get the U.S ships out of South China Sea and around to dominate the area. To do that, they are increasing their Navy presence and actual hardware. Data supremacy alone would do nothing at all if the U.S Navy does not have actual hardware itself there. We are talking about the home advantage that the U.S does not have.

Not to mentioned China is rapidly catching up in computing power/AI to the West.
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Was watching a decent video exploring the US's presence around Taiwan. They mentioned that the US is actually pretty well placed in that region. They have bases in Japan, South Korea to cover the east, the Philippines to cover the south and Singapore to cover the west. Add in further strategic islands dotted around, along with Pearl Harbour they have a pretty good starting base for defending against China. Also with the way Taiwans geography is set up China only really has one route to attack without having to break through the US defensive lines and that route is where Taiwan will have most of their defences based. Obviously things like amount of ships, quality of ships apply but the US has a pretty decent physical base of presence in that area it seems.
 
Putin Has Staked Russia’s Resources on Victory in Ukraine. Can the West Match Him?

The U.S., European Union and U.K. have a combined annual economic output of about $45 trillion—20 times the size of Russia’s economy—and superior technology. On paper, Ukraine’s backers are much stronger than its attacker. But Russia is making far more effort.

The Russian government’s budget plan for 2024-26, approved earlier this month, shows the country devoting an ever-larger share of resources to the war. Military spending is set to rise to more than $100 billion next year, the highest level since Soviet times.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-has...-the-west-match-him-b5d7b5f2?mod=hp_lead_pos5
 
flameinthesun said:
Was watching a decent video exploring the US's presence around Taiwan. They mentioned that the US is actually pretty well placed in that region. They have bases in Japan, South Korea to cover the east, the Philippines to cover the south and Singapore to cover the west. Add in further strategic islands dotted around, along with Pearl Harbour they have a pretty good starting base for defending against China. Also with the way Taiwans geography is set up China only really has one route to attack without having to break through the US defensive lines and that route is where Taiwan will have most of their defences based. Obviously things like amount of ships, quality of ships apply but the US has a pretty decent physical base of presence in that area it seems.
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I posted a video in the cold war - China thread for a different perspective. Anyway, I don't want to talk about China here. But to make it clear, I am not calling for the U.S. to start a war with China. I am hoping either Xi left Taiwan alone or the U.S. left alone them if Taiwaneses wants to join the mainland China. I just hope the U.S. didn't go in with half-ass measured and stir up more shit in that region.

Back on the Ukraine, they just need to do what the Russians do. Dig deep and wide and put shit loads of mine to defend their lines. They are not going anywhere forward fast for now.
 
Raoul said:
The US military strategy against China is actually a very different one than the traditional use of planes or ships, and is instead based on data supremacy, which is where most of a war with China would be waged - not through traditional antiquated hardware like ships, tanks etc
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Tanks may not feature that prominently but I can't seriously take the ship being antiquated when talking about defending an island nation.
 
I had missed this Guardian story on Meloni from a couple of weeks ago.


‘Tiredness on all sides’ over war in Ukraine, Italian PM tells prank caller
The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, told a prank caller posing as an African leader there was “a lot of tiredness” over the war in Ukraine and that she had some ideas up her sleeve on how to “find a way out”.

Meloni’s office confirmed that she had been “misled” into the phone call – reportedly by two Russian comedians – that took place on 18 September “by an impostor who passed himself off as the president of the African Union Commission”.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/01/italy-giorgia-meloni-prank-call-russia-ukraine-war
 
Another dead general. He is the 7th general to have died, according to other tweets.

 
Is there a reliable death toll for this war as I have seen figures of half a million on the internet which is just heart breaking and hopefully not true.
 
Dr. StrangeHate said:
Is there a reliable death toll for this war as I have seen figures of half a million on the internet which is just heart breaking and hopefully not true.
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New York Times had an article in August on military casualties. About 500K, of which 200K were deaths and 300K wounded. Those are combined figures for Ukraine + Russia and obviously estimates so we don't know for sure.

As for civilian deaths, I think about 10K has been confirmed? But real toll likely higher.
 
So, Lavrov is basically admitting that Moldova is next on their list, if they can get Ukraine.
Obviously "the west" would be to blame for that as well, of course, as with everything else.
 
Morty_ said:
So, Lavrov is basically admitting that Moldova is next on their list, if they can get Ukraine.
Obviously "the west" would be to blame for that as well, of course, as with everything else.
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Can you please share the source?
 
ExoduS said:
Can you please share the source?
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From Newsweek.

"The Kozak Memorandum, which could have reliably resolved the situation in Moldova 20 years ago, is among the thwarted attempts to resolve the acute problems of our continent on the basis of OSCE principles," Lavrov said. "At that time, NATO and EU Brussels unceremoniously torpedoed the document.... In fact, Moldova is destined to be the next victim in the hybrid war against Russia unleashed by the West."
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Honestly, Lavrov can take 12 metal dildos up his arse for all people care about him.
 
VorZakone said:
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He needs to give them the Saab planes then. I'm sad at the apathy that seems to have set in about Ukraine. Obviously things don't always go to plan in war, it doesn't mean you just give up. It was right then and it's still right now that we should arm them with everything we reasonably can to help them win. I'm no fan of the military industrial complex but sign the deals needed to arm Ukraine.
 
TwoSheds said:
He needs to give them the Saab planes then. I'm sad at the apathy that seems to have set in about Ukraine. Obviously things don't always go to plan in war, it doesn't mean you just give up. It was right then and it's still right now that we should arm them with everything we reasonably can to help them win. I'm no fan of the military industrial complex but sign the deals needed to arm Ukraine.
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Personally I think the idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield just isn't realistic.

But that in itself shouldn't necessarily be an alarming thing. We have historical examples of countries quitting a war because of rising economic costs or the political leaders realising there's nothing to gain by continuing it.

In this case I think there has to be a lot more economic pressure on Russia. Make Putin feel like he's really going to run out of money if he continues.

And in the meantime more aid to Ukraine.
 
VorZakone said:
Personally I think the idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield just isn't realistic.

But that in itself shouldn't necessarily be an alarming thing. We have historical examples of countries quitting a war because of rising economic costs or the political leaders realising there's nothing to gain by continuing it.

In this case I think there has to be a lot more economic pressure on Russia. Make Putin feel like he's really going to run out of money if he continues.

And in the meantime more aid to Ukraine.
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Exactly. Whether they win or not, give them everything we can to help them punish Russia's military and economy as much as possible as well as minimise the Ukrainian casualties. We in the collective west should be on a quasi war footing right now and it seems so half hearted.
 
I swaer to God that Ukrainian generals must be incompetent as feck when they don't find a way to take better advantage of the situation and thus choose to get bogged down in a war of attrition. Everyone and the dog know that Russia is never beaten in a war of attrition. It is often beaten through a series of morale-crushing defeats that make the Russians lose hope for any better outcome.
 
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