Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Morty_ said:
Bakhmut isn't important in itself, what would have happened if they didn't defend it? Well, Russia then goes on to attack other cities close by, one can argue if that was worth defending the area or not, but it probably was.

In any case, southern offensive would have stalled anyway, due to Avdiivka, which has real strategic importance, Ukraine had to commit here, no other options.
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Bakhmut was the baldie's intention. Once they got it, they would have probably left anyway which they did. What happened was that the UKR troops lost some of their best troops there preventing tons of RU prisoners from coming into the city who would have left with that guy after the capture of the city. And, Russians were saving their best troops and preparing the South.

The Ukrainians still have outer defense lines to fortify to prevent the RU marching from the city. Of course, it is not without risks.

If the UKR push on the south was successful, the Russians had to send their troops there, relieving the pressure from elsewhere. But the biggest advantage for UKR in that scenario would be probably not having too many extensive defensive modifications to overcome. By the time more equipment arrived in the spring, they would have been on their front foot for some big breakthroughs.

But hindsight is 20:20, of course.
 
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RedDevilQuebecois said:
I swaer to God that Ukrainian generals must be incompetent as feck when they don't find a way to take better advantage of the situation and thus choose to get bogged down in a war of attrition. Everyone and the dog know that Russia is never beaten in a war of attrition. It is often beaten through a series of morale-crushing defeats that make the Russians lose hope for any better outcome.
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Is that what happened in Afghanistan, crushing defeats instead of attrition?
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Using those newly acquired Western tanks in battle would be a good start instead of keeping them at the back or in positions where their ful potential is not exploited. Business Insider wrote an article about the topic over a week ago. The following part of the text is shocking.



For the record, the Abrams tanks have not seen any action in Ukraine so far at all.:wenger::nono:
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I take it you haven't been following the battlefield situation closely? Not that I would blame you, it's grim and depressing.

I think the Russians have an artillery advantage of something like 7-8 to 1 over the Ukrainians. They've had months worth of time to build extensive defensive lines in depth with millions of mines laid. They have clear aerial superiority. Those Western tanks are useful for exploiting breakthroughs - but without a combined arms advantage (land/air) there is no gains for these tanks to make. Sending them in piecemeal is suicidal. Ukraine learnt this lesson early on in the Summer offensive.

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The United said:
That helped who and how? Probably poor Africans?
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I don't have a particular answer for that. Ukrainians have said that Wagner was a tougher opponent than Russian regular forces. And now Wagner has been pretty much disbanded by Putin.
 
The recent mainstream media seem to be preparing people for negative Ukraine stories, almost like we might hear about support ending/greatly diminishing soon. There comes a time NATO has to wake up and flex it's muscles a bit, Russia is vastly increasing it's army size, it's very obvious they won't stop and Ukraine will not be the last country they target.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
The recent mainstream media seem to be preparing people for negative Ukraine stories, almost like we might hear about support ending/greatly diminishing soon. There comes a time NATO has to wake up and flex it's muscles a bit, Russia is vastly increasing it's army size, it's very obvious they won't stop and Ukraine will not be the last country they target.
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Just Russians splashing their cash imo, I'm sure its quite easy for them to get a story published. In terms of western support, the narrative has shifted back in Ukraine's favour since that new house speaker fellow, Johnson, has had a change of tune. Expecting that $100bil package to be approved at some point.
 
UK MoD says estimated 70K Russians dead. Total casualties between 290K and 350K.

 
Big new WaPo article out...


Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine

  • Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.
  • The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.
  • Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/
 
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RedDevilQuebecois said:
I swaer to God that Ukrainian generals must be incompetent as feck when they don't find a way to take better advantage of the situation and thus choose to get bogged down in a war of attrition. Everyone and the dog know that Russia is never beaten in a war of attrition. It is often beaten through a series of morale-crushing defeats that make the Russians lose hope for any better outcome.
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You're day dreaming if yo think that Ukraine has the means to inflict a decisive military defeat on Russia.
 
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Simbo said:
Just Russians splashing their cash imo, I'm sure its quite easy for them to get a story published. In terms of western support, the narrative has shifted back in Ukraine's favour since that new house speaker fellow, Johnson, has had a change of tune. Expecting that $100bil package to be approved at some point.
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Actions speaks louder than word, Mike can say he support Ukraine as much as he want, doesn't mean anything.

I expect nothing major to pass.
 
VorZakone said:
Big new WaPo article out...


Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/
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On the Bakhmut debate...

Ukrainian officials argued that they needed to sustain a robust fight in the Bakhmut area because otherwise Russia would try to reoccupy parts of the Kharkiv region and advance in Donetsk — a key objective for Putin, who wants to seize that whole region.

“We told [the Americans], ‘If you assumed the seats of our generals, you’d see that if we don’t make Bakhmut a point of contention, [the Russians] would,’” one senior Ukrainian official said. “We can’t let that happen.”
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That_Bloke said:
You're day dreaming if yo think that Ukraine has the means to inflict a decisive military defeat on Russia.
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That is what Russia said about Japan before Mukden in that cold winter of early 1905. I hope you read deep enough about that battle because, unlike what popular views of that war might be, the Japanese army at that particular time was exhausted, starved, outnumbered, outgunned and severely depleted because of the heavy casualties taken during the (finally successful) siege of Port-Arthur. Nevertheless, the Japanese generals knew that they had to attack and to win decisively in a very narrow window of opportunity as the alternative would have meant a guaranteed defeat should the Russian army have received reinforcements from Western Russia. So the Japanese went all in, outflanked and encircled the main Russian force, forced a massive Russian retreat and then finished off the remnants inside the pocket just west of Mukden, all before that window of opportunity closed.

VorZakone said:
Big new WaPo article out...


Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/
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Regardless of how tactics and technology have evolved since 1905, the old Swedish proverb that says "attack is the best defense" still holds its meaning in the art of war when the window of opportunity is there. After reading that two-part article in the Washington Post, I personally feel that many Ukrainian generals have been far too cautious and thus missed their window completely, which is a big reason why the counteroffensive failed. The other reason is the massive waste of valuable UA resources, namely seasoned soldiers while defending Bakhmut, for which the article seems to indicate it was due to pressure from Zelensky's office.

Someone someday will have to go all in and then force a breakthrough to finish this war, just like the Japanese of the previous century did. I only hope the Ukrainian generals will not mess around if such an opportunity arises.
 
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VorZakone said:
Big new WaPo article out...


Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/
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Just finished the 1st part about the planning, and recalled that we were talking about this aspect of the timing in this thread back in June. As @RedDevilQuebecois points out, timing is entirely relative in these affairs. I say this as someone who is generally too cautious and wants to be too prepared, but I'd make a shit general as a result.

There seems to be no point in trying to throw more men and equipment against the minefields and trenches that the russians have built up, until there is equipment and/or doctrine that negates those advantages somehow. That or achieving some other form of strategic surprise.
 
Maybe it's just the ever increasing frustration of the situation building up, but i've more and more feel that a limited nato intervention early in the war could have decided it, and was worth the risk. Putin doesn't seem to have reached the levels of insanity yet to involve nukes, but the only thing he and his inner-circle respects is strength. A systematic aerial campaign against russian army, alongside back-channel and public reassurance it would only stop when the army withdraws from Ukraine. It would have set a better stage for internal revolt at the governmental/military level too.

It's all just so absurd and cynical to me. This idea that nato at its foundation is a military alliance to protect the democratic parts of Europe that want in, from USSR (and RF as its successor) possible expansionism. So, theoretically if Baltics or Poland are attacked instead of Ukraine, we're supposed to see direct military conflict sufficient to repel this, regardless of risks of nuclear escalation; we assume there has always been that will there from USA/UK/France etc. But the country next door that is also fully a part of Europe and trying to consolidate an emerging democracy, but doesn't yet meet all the criteria to sign up to your club yet gets attacked? They're not on the right pieces of paper, but they're still "on our side" so we'll exploit the situation by cynically half-arsing the entire issue.

Removed from the obligation to fulfill a signed treaty, the moral core of the existing alliance is revealed to be very shaky, and we're presented by the surreal realpolitik situation that one European democracy is worthy of possible nuclear war to protect it, yet the one right next door to it isn't.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
That is what Russia said about Japan before Mukden in that cold winter of early 1905. I hope you read deep enough about that battle because, unlike what popular views of that war might be, the Japanese army at that particular time was exhausted, starved, outnumbered, outgunned and severely depleted because of the heavy casualties taken during the (finally successful) siege of Port-Arthur. Nevertheless, the Japanese generals knew that they had to attack and to win decisively in a very narrow window of opportunity as the alternative would have meant a guaranteed defeat should the Russian army have received reinforcements from Western Russia. So the Japanese went all in, outflanked and encircled the main Russian force, forced a massive Russian retreat and then finished off the remnants inside the pocket justwest of Mukden, all before that window of opportunity closed.



Regardless of how tactics and technology have evolved since 1905, the old Swedish proverb that says "attack is the best defense" still holds its meaning in the art of war when the window of opportunity is there. After reading that two-part article in the Washington Post, I personally feel that many Ukrainian generals have been far too cautious and thus missed their window completely, which is a big reason why the counteroffensive failed. The other reason is the massive waste of valuable UA resources, namely seasoned soldiers while defending Bakhmut, for which the article seems to indicate it was due to pressure from Zelensky's office.

Someone someday will have to go all in and then force a breakthrough to finish this war, just like the Japanese of the previous century did. I only hope the Ukrainian generals will not mess around if such an opportunity arises.
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The comparison seems to be popular on the internet, but I see where you're coming from. Just with a small difference: the Japanese army wasn't on life support and depending on the whims of the nations providing, well all the military equipment, so it could act as it saw fit, when it saw fit. You forget that Japan was wiping the floor with Russia since the war began and the two armies were fairly even in terms of numbers and material, which is absolutely not the case here. The Japanese were also better equipped than the Russians and their high command levels above the Tsar's. You can nitpick one battle were the Japanese were in a real pinch and only had their superior tactics and better trained, fanatical soldiers to bail them out, but the fact is that they absolutely mauled the Russians left, right, and center on land as well as at sea, from the beginning to the end of the war. Can't see the same situation in Ukraine.

Back to 2023, the Russian lines of defense are so deeply layered, that there was no chance of breaking through without considerable air and armored support and a massive amount of bodies. The spring counter-offensive reminds me more of Operation Citadel rather than the Battle of Mukden in the sense that the Russians, alongside basically the whole world, knew months in advance what was going to happen and had all the time in the world to prepare their defenses. Many military experts saw the failure coming a mile off, given that the Ukrainians simply didn't have enough tanks, airplanes, soldiers, and not even the element of surprise, to achieve their objectives.

After their initial heavy blunders, and there were many, the Russians decided to shorten the front, go defensive, hang onto what they already had, and let the Ukrainians put their best forces through the meat grinder, since attrition heavily favours Russia. Unless NATO and the US go all in, which I highly doubt, it will end only one way.
 
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Sad article on Russian convicts.

“I really wish to be there, knowing that this is likely to be a journey without return,” Mr. Mokin, then 35 and serving an 11-year sentence, told a friend in a text message that was viewed by The New York Times.

Two months later, Mr. Mokin was dead. A social media post showing his grave is the only known public tribute to his short life.
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“When civilians are mobilized, they are ripped from their families, their jobs,” Aleksandr, one of the surviving recruits from the prison, known as IK6, said in an interview. “As for us, we’ve got nothing to lose.”
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/europe/russia-prison-wagner-ukraine.html
 
Morty_ said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate...ne-funding-tempers-flare-classified-briefing/

If Ukraine aid can't even pass the senate, there is zero chance they will get anything through the house.

Ukraine will get next to nothing from the US in the coming year, thats my prediction.
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Maybe Mearsheimer had a point when he said in 2014 that Ukraine isn’t American critical strategic interest. Israel has a right to defend itself so priorities need to be managed carefully.
 
Ukraine has disappeared off the UK TV media in favour of the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Putin, who has been charged with War Crimes, is in the UAE where he's been given the red carpet treatment. That will piss off the Yanks and may help the Bill on Ukraine Aid to pass. Issue is the money. Their national debt is approaching $34 trillion. That's money owed to Bond holders and other types of securities. They could just issue more bonds to raise the money but that isn't the issue. More and more governments at looking inward to support their own people(except the UK who support anyone that tips up on the Kent coast) and it's a political argument rather than a fiscal one I believe. If the USA stop supporting Ukraine, well they are in deep trouble. Puitin must be laughing his socks off.
 
Ukrainians cleaning up traitors it seems.

Ukraine's SBU killed fugitive Ukrainian lawmaker in Russia - source

KYIV, Dec 6 (Reuters) - A former Ukrainian lawmaker regarded by Kyiv as a traitor was shot dead near Moscow on Wednesday and a Ukrainian source said he was killed by the country's security service.

Illia Kyva was a pro-Russian member of Ukraine's parliament before Moscow invaded in February 2022, but had been in Russia throughout the war and frequently criticised Ukrainian authorities online.

Russian investigators said Kyva died on the spot after being shot in a park in Odintsovo region, southwest of Moscow, and they had opened a murder hunt.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-ukrainian-lawmaker-russia-source-2023-12-06/
 
Anyone hear where we are with new ammo production by European countries?

Obviously the US supplies are the main topic but I haven’t heard much about progress with attempts to expand European military production.
 
Beans said:
Anyone hear where we are with new ammo production by European countries?

Obviously the US supplies are the main topic but I haven’t heard much about progress with attempts to expand European military production.
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Terrible as far as i read. For example europe pledge 1 million artillery shells in 1 year and they will not get close
 
Beans said:
Yeah that's the one I'm most interested in.
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Meanwhile seems that North korea sent 1 million shells (and more to come) and Russia is capable to manufacture 2 million shells a year before the 2024 increased budget to kick in
 
Republicans doing what they are paid to do, Ukraine aid was never going to pass.
 
Very graphic, but shows the reality on the ground. An apparent HIMARS attack with over 180K tungsten balls...

 
Hopefully, Europe can keep Ukraine afloat for the coming year, and then we hope dems get a trifecta again in next years election.

Sounds like the best case scenario, going forward.
 
Morty_ said:
Hopefully, Europe can keep Ukraine afloat for the coming year, and then we hope dems get a trifecta again in next years election.

Sounds like the best case scenario, going forward.
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Surely there'll be further talks on Ukraine aid won't there?
 
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