Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Putin doesn't believe that Ukraine is a real country, or that Ukrainians are its own group of people.

What is there to negotiate over with someone like that?

He would just regroup, build up forces, and try again in a few years.
 
VorZakone said:
Click to expand...


If the US sent those F-16s earlier, we may not have this conversation as that would have meant clearer skies for the UA to launch helicopter-airborne operations behind Russian lines.

We can say ill about the current American doctrine, but we have to remember that it was first created on purpose for the sake of avoiding the kind of losses that plagued US forces in the Korean War and then in the Vietnam War. And besides, that same doctrine crushed 2 armies with Soviet doctrine and equipment in the 1990s. Wars are (almost) always won when one side has better mobility than the other.
 
Last edited:
Morty_ said:
Putin doesn't believe that Ukraine is a real country, or that Ukrainians are its own group of people.

What is there to negotiate over with someone like that?

He would just regroup, build up forces, and try again in a few years.
Click to expand...

That's precisely why the Ukrainians shouldn't fall for it. Stopping now to assuage the political interests of foreign politicians would only allow Putin to claim victory, re-arm himself, then go for more in a few years.
 
Opposing negotiations would make sense if Ukraine had a clear path to victory - which is reconquering areas where ethnic Russians live. The defeat would have to be so decisive that no Russian leader ever dares to attack again.

The way Russians are positioned, two “possibilities” exist:
1. Push Russians back to original borders in one mighty offensive.
2. Never accept negotiations and just keep attacking until Russians run out of resources to defend the gains and eventually break and give up.

I mean, good luck.
 
Raoul said:
Finally a respected voice who agrees with Suedesi.

Click to expand...

Well...to be frank, I also don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield.

But I do think there is another scenario that could help Ukraine secure "victory". But it may take a looong time and that is to fight Russia until the Russian economy crumbles so much that Putin has to withdraw or Putin dies. And for that, we need more pressure on the Russian economy.

The Soviets were a decade in Afghanistan but had to leave eventually. And there's probably more historical examples of an invading force having to withdraw for political or economic reasons.
 
VorZakone said:
Well...to be frank, I also don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield.

But I do think there is another scenario that could help Ukraine secure "victory". But it may take a looong time and that is to fight Russia until the Russian economy crumbles so much that Putin has to withdraw or Putin dies. And for that, we need more pressure on the Russian economy.

The Soviets were a decade in Afghanistan but had to leave eventually. And there's probably more historical examples of an invading force having to withdraw for political or economic reasons.
Click to expand...

His logic is identical to some in this thread. What he conveniently omits from his theory is that the Soviet Union literally collapsed after protracted economic and political pressure from the outside. Putin's Russia will be no different, unless of course the US and Europe fail to hold their collective nerve and capitulate to domestic isolationists.
 
Very good news:

Ukraine will get the former Dutch Gepard SPAAGs, which have proven to be the best and most cost-effective countermeasure against the Shahed drones and low flying cruise missiles. This will double the available numbers for Ukraine, after they already got all Gepard's that were left in Germany and were already bought from Kuwait.

It's however probably too late to arrive in time before the Russian's start their winter attacks on the energy/heating infrastructure :nervous:
 
stefan92 said:
Very good news:

Ukraine will get the former Dutch Gepard SPAAGs, which have proven to be the best and most cost-effective countermeasure against the Shahed drones and low flying cruise missiles. This will double the available numbers for Ukraine, after they already got all Gepard's that were left in Germany and were already bought from Kuwait.

It's however probably too late to arrive in time before the Russian's start their winter attacks on the energy/heating infrastructure :nervous:
Click to expand...


Still, this winter will not be like the last, and I'm looking forward to see what Ukraine has in response. Dunno if it was posted in here, but they've issued clear threats to Russia's oil infrastructure.
 
“As long as it takes” they said…The engineers of this drip-feeding policy are complete imbeciles. How these thick bastards are even allowed anywhere near steering decisions concerning national security. Everyone including my dog were screaming right from the beginning that you need to take advantage of the public support when it’s high because long game suits Russia as it’s a dictatorship which will be investing billions into propaganda to sow the divisions in the house, and it wasn’t clear only for these incompetent tw**s such as Kirby and Sullivan. Can’t even look at his stupid arrogant face who allowed Ukraine to be at the mercy now of MAGA republicans.
 
Last edited:
Rajma said:
“As long as it takes” they said…The engineers of this drip-feeding policy are complete imbeciles. How these thick bastards are even allowed anywhere near steering decisions concerning national security. Everyone including my dog were screaming right from the beginning that you need to take advantage of the public support when it’s high because long game suits Russia as it’s a dictatorship which will be investing billions into propaganda to sow the divisions in the house, and it wasn’t clear only for these incompetent tw**s such as Kirby and Sullivan. Can’t even look at his stupid arrogant face who allowed Ukraine to be at the mercy now of MAGA republicans.
Click to expand...


I really despise Sullivan. People like him have no business doing this job when making sure that Ukraine gets a total victory with the full might of the US military industrial complex behind them is what would score major political points both at home (in the US) and abroad.

Just as @Simbo pointed out earlier, I hope Ukraine will eventually destroy a good chunk of Russia's oil infrastructure. Time to hit Putin's biggest source of income or what is left of it.
 
One thing I'm wondering is how much manpower both sides have deployed at the moment. We keep hearing that Russia has manpower superiority but last year former Ukrainian minister Reznikov said Ukraine had 700,000 in the armed forces: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62118953

We know the initial Russian invasion force was max 200K based on Western estimates. They've mobilized since then of course.
 
Raoul said:
Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro

Click to expand...


Is this really new?, warmapper on twitter has shown Ukraine forced on the left bank of the river for at least a week. Seems to be small numbers of special forces. They're going to hit the same problem that Russia did 12 months ago, supply over the river. Without a bridge that is safe from Russian attack, I don't see how larger numbers of troops are deployed and supplied.
 
foolsgold said:
Is this really new?, warmapper on twitter has shown Ukraine forced on the left bank of the river for at least a week. Seems to be small numbers of special forces. They're going to hit the same problem that Russia did 12 months ago, supply over the river. Without a bridge that is safe from Russian attack, I don't see how larger numbers of troops are deployed and supplied.
Click to expand...

Its about 24-36 hours new. Being discussed extensively on Twitter at the moment. It shouldn't really come as a surprise that they have managed to cross the river with a small amount of troops, which is similar method to how they eventually reclaimed Kherson last year. Once the Russian defense cracks, more ordinary Ukrainian troops are likely to cross.





Edit. There's a tweet about the same thing about a week ago as well. Not sure if this is the same one or a different crossing.
 
Last edited:
Rajma said:
Click to expand...


I was in Lviv yesterday. Literally no one gives a feck about sirens any more. I’m walking to a restaurant while the sirens are blazing and it has a sign on the door saying “We do not serve customers during air raid alerts”. I push the door and find it open, I pop my head inside and ask the waiter “are you serving?”. Looks at me confused… “yes of course”.

This is testament both to the chadness of Ukrainians and the effectiveness of Western air defences. I’ve been in Ukraine for 3 days now and had 3 air raid alerts, one each day. On all 3 cases all loitering munitions and missiles got shot down. Hardly anything can land on the cities any more. Russians only have the depletion of Ukrainian air defences to hope for. So long as steady supply of those munitions continues, the Russian reach will be very much reduced to the front lines.
 
Raoul said:
Its about 24-36 hours new. Being discussed extensively on Twitter at the moment. It shouldn't really come as a surprise that they have managed to cross the river with a small amount of troops, which is similar method to how they eventually reclaimed Kherson last year. Once the Russian defense cracks, more ordinary Ukrainian troops are likely to cross.





Edit. There's a tweet about the same thing about a week ago as well. Not sure if this is the same one or a different crossing.
Click to expand...

Ukraine has been building this bridgehead for weeks now, started with infantery but meanwhile even heavy equipment like a BTR-4 has been spotted there. So far they are operating under cover of their own artillery on the right bank and apparently have placed air defense and electronic warfare equipment on the Dnipro islands.

They seem to be really commited to this attack to open a new and more dynamic front (very little minefields and other fortifications, some of what existed was washed away when the dam was destroyed and the river just flooded it's banks)
 
MadMike said:
I was in Lviv yesterday. Literally no one gives a feck about sirens any more. I’m walking to a restaurant while the sirens are blazing and it has a sign on the door saying “We do not serve customers during air raid alerts”. I push the door and find it open, I pop my head inside and ask the waiter “are you serving?”. Looks at me confused… “yes of course”.

This is testament both to the chadness of Ukrainians and the effectiveness of Western air defences. I’ve been in Ukraine for 3 days now and had 3 air raid alerts, one each day. On all 3 cases all loitering munitions and missiles got shot down. Hardly anything can land on the cities any more. Russians only have the depletion of Ukrainian air defences to hope for. So long as steady supply of those munitions continues, the Russian reach will be very much reduced to the front lines.
Click to expand...
Also exhaustion. You gotta live. 18 months in and of course sirens are given less credence. We saw the exact same thing happen with COVID where everyone is super vigilant at first, but it can never be maintained.
 
MadMike said:
I was in Lviv yesterday. Literally no one gives a feck about sirens any more. I’m walking to a restaurant while the sirens are blazing and it has a sign on the door saying “We do not serve customers during air raid alerts”. I push the door and find it open, I pop my head inside and ask the waiter “are you serving?”. Looks at me confused… “yes of course”.

This is testament both to the chadness of Ukrainians and the effectiveness of Western air defences. I’ve been in Ukraine for 3 days now and had 3 air raid alerts, one each day. On all 3 cases all loitering munitions and missiles got shot down. Hardly anything can land on the cities any more. Russians only have the depletion of Ukrainian air defences to hope for. So long as steady supply of those munitions continues, the Russian reach will be very much reduced to the front lines.
Click to expand...
That's exactly what my in-laws have been telling me. Going there in 3 weeks with the wife. First time since the war started.
 
VorZakone said:
One thing I'm wondering is how much manpower both sides have deployed at the moment. We keep hearing that Russia has manpower superiority but last year former Ukrainian minister Reznikov said Ukraine had 700,000 in the armed forces: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62118953

We know the initial Russian invasion force was max 200K based on Western estimates. They've mobilized since then of course.
Click to expand...
The first wave of mobilization was around 300k, plus you have a semi-steady supply of volunteers (money talks, but no one really knows how many), army reserves (I think the overall army personnel was around 1 mil before the war, although who knows how many were battle ready & could be spared from their current deployment) and at least tens of thousands of criminals that signed contracts with Wagner/MoD.

I doubt that Russia has a lot more men (if any) on the front, it’s the future mobilization potential that’s worrying. I’d imagine that Ukraine has depleted a lot more of its human resources. It’s unlikely that Russia will have the next wave of mobilization before the presidential election though, which would take place in the spring.
 
Britain estimates 300K casualties for Russia. This includes wounded.

 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.