Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Morty_ said:
Putin invites Biden for tea, so, basically a death threat.
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The only thing I see from the Putin and Xi meeting is how small those men are at statesmanship. While Russia and China also have their interests in the Middle East, they can also score points by say that they offer something for peace. Intsead we have radio silence from them when comes that time for serious business. Feck those losers.

Morty_ said:
Putin invites Biden for tea, so, basically a death threat.
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A world of favors would be done if someone in Russia makes sure that Putin is the one drinking that tea.
 
Spark said:
Feel like this is the precursor to Bahkmut all over again. Russians just chuck shit at the target and eventually overwhelm Ukrainian defences.

It works both ways too, as Ukraine found out at the start of the counter offensive. Ukraine seemingly has a much higher regard for life, so very quickly took a more cautious ground approach (at least that’s how I see it).

For all the endless of talk of “Russians running out of stuff” you do think sooner rather than later they’re going to be degraded to the extent of not being able to support a huge invasion force. Like, a year more maybe? No idea, but they don’t exactly conduct themselves sustainably.

The feck do I know though, they could have only used the tip of the iceberg when it comes to equipment.
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A year? Maybe a decade most likely. Russia was suppose to fold in the first 3 months and it had been almost 2 years. And their military budget is huge this year. There is too much wishful thinking in Ukraine's war. As much the Russian army is incompetent, they have many more soldiers. A huge stockpile from the soviet era and their economy is still a powerhouse exporting raw materials.

As much as their military was corrupt and money was lost due to it, I don't think now is the case if they don't want to be defenestrated and they are getting their shit together even with very basic tactics. They can sit for a long time building defenses in the conquered territory while Ukraine bleeds out.

Hopefully Ukraine can munch enough terrain with the least human losses possible little by little but I think the best chance is that Putin drops dead and Russia could be free of Putin's narrative
 
Has the weather started to turn there yet? How much impact will it have if so?
 
Semper Fudge said:
Has the weather started to turn there yet? How much impact will it have if so?
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I doubt it will have a significant impact either way if last winter is anything to go by as the fighting didn’t really stop.

On the side note, I feel like people in Europe still don’t really acknowledge the lurking evil just around the corner, as the military production is still at such low levels despite the on-going full scale war with the intensity not seen since WW2 with countries walking back on their % GDP commitments to NATO and their defenses. Only this week Russia lost (visually confirmed) 200+ heavy armor (tanks, IFV, artillery), while most European countries don’t have that much armor in their stocks full stop. I have heard quite an opt metaphor comparing European countries to those carefree people dancing and enjoying themselves during the music festival in Israel.
 
Semper Fudge said:
Has the weather started to turn there yet? How much impact will it have if so?
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If you look at Russia's losses yesterday, not yet. 55 tanks, 120 APVs in just one day.



Rajma said:
On the side note, I feel like people in Europe still don’t really acknowledge the lurking evil just around the corner, as the military production is still at such low levels despite the on-going full scale war with the intensity not seen since WW2 with countries walking back on their % GDP commitments to NATO and their defenses. Only this week Russia lost (visually confirmed) 200+ heavy armor (tanks, IFV, artillery), while most European countries don’t have that much armor in their stocks full stop. I have heard quite an opt metaphor comparing European countries to those carefree people dancing and enjoying themselves during the music festival in Israel.
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True. Russia loses in one day what many NATO countries have in total stock. We live in a very dangerous time, where the autocrat axis (Syria, Iran, Russia, NK, China) challenge democracies, some of them openly, some through proxies. If we do not rise to this challenge and use our superior economy to strengthen our armies as a deterrent, we risk a future full of war and misery.
 
This is so true and has been driving me crazy when I see someone quoting UN figures, the scale of people killed by Russia is immense in reality.
 
Nepalis are fighting in this war.

Scores of young Nepali men have gone to fight, some lured by Russia’s promise of work, others to fight for Ukraine, raising the prospect of Nepalis fighting one another in a distant war.

Nepali officials are urging young men to stay away from the war. Mr. Bajgain says that the government should tell the Russian Army to stop recruiting Nepali citizens but that the government doesn’t have “the guts” to do it.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/world/asia/ukraine-russia-nepal.html
 
Ragnar123 said:
If you look at Russia's losses yesterday, not yet. 55 tanks, 120 APVs in just one day.





True. Russia loses in one day what many NATO countries have in total stock. We live in a very dangerous time, where the autocrat axis (Syria, Iran, Russia, NK, China) challenge democracies, some of them openly, some through proxies. If we do not rise to this challenge and use our superior economy to strengthen our armies as a deterrent, we risk a future full of war and misery.
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One can even argue that we're already living in a very loosely related multifront World War scenario. There's the european front, the ME front, the african front (which isn't really that much discussed) and the tensions in the far East, with the alliances being pretty much the same in every front.

Hopefully the new weapons received by the UA will help break the stalemate. I would have expected a bigger advance by this point of the year, even when you can never be really sure of what's going on behind scenes. The logic of fighting months long campaigns little city by little city isn't really sustainable for Ukraine's long term goals.
 
These FPV drones are replacing traditional artillery to an extent given their superior accuracy, especially for moving targets. This is some boom:
 
Rajma said:
These FPV drones are replacing traditional artillery to an extent given their superior accuracy, especially for moving targets. This is some boom:
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The explosion was that large because of the target ordnance detonating I assume? I'd assume the drone can carry much less explosive than a regular artillery shell.
 
Rajma said:
Ukraine now has much more ammo though, including cluster munitions, meaning that enemy can no longer overwhelm them with endless meat assaults as they call them. It’s actually impressive that russians can still keep going as they do having lost more than 10 thousand (visually confirmed only) pieces of mostly heavy equipment. All of europe should be eternally grateful to Ukraine that they’re holding them off from getting on our doorstep, basically. People are really the cheapest going currency in their army.
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Cluster munitions doing the job they were designed to against Russian meat assaults, if only US didn’t slow ball the delivery of these weapons that Ukraine requested ages ago, would have saved so many lives for AFU during the Bakhmut meat grinder.

 
Russia might be incompetent, and are losing a lot of men, and military equipment, but they are still slowly, but surely, making their way to encircle Avdiikva.

They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.
 
Morty_ said:
Russia might be incompetent, and are losing a lot of men, and military equipment, but they are still slowly, but surely, making their way to encircle Avdiikva.

They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.
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Their stockpiles are insane.
 
I think Ukraine would happily trade Crimea for Avdiivka if punishing the Russians there but losing ground allows the assault in the south to progress.
 
stoinz said:
Makes you think how long Putin have been preparing for this. Some of the Western countries have already depleted some of their equipments after donating to the Ukraine.
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That's not really on Putin, the Russians simply didn't care to scrap their cold war inventory, unlike the Western countries.
 
stefan92 said:
That's not really on Putin, the Russians simply didn't care to scrap their cold war inventory, unlike the Western countries.
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Tanks and guns I understand. But surely those cruise missiles and drones that they fire daily are something post cold war era?
 
stoinz said:
Tanks and guns I understand. But surely those cruise missiles and drones that they fire daily are something post cold war era?
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Yes, that's mostly even current prodiction now as Russia didn't have a huge stockpile.
 
It seems like some UKR troops are crossing the Dnipro river. I wonder how feasible for them to have a major offensive there. You would think the RA's defensive lines facing that direction are a bit weaker on that front?
 
Morty_ said:
Russia might be incompetent, and are losing a lot of men, and military equipment, but they are still slowly, but surely, making their way to encircle Avdiikva.

They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.
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They are not that bad at that anymore, though. It is hard to call them that, especially after we saw how the UKR troops, with modern equipment, had similar struggles on the South to capture small villages. We usually laughed at them for taking so long and losses to capture some establishment. Maybe we should be looking at their losses in a different way to get a good idea of how UKR has to do the same for bigger cities anywhere. Very grim.
 
The United said:
They are not that bad at that anymore, though. It is hard to call them that, especially after we saw how the UKR troops, with modern equipment, had similar struggles on the South to capture small villages. We usually laughed at them for taking so long and losses to capture some establishment. Maybe we should be looking at their losses in a different way to get a good idea of how UKR has to do the same for bigger cities anywhere. Very grim.
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They are still bad when going on the offense, so they aren't really getting anywhere, but then, neither is Ukraine.

Of course, offense is always more difficult than defense, but considering how wide and long the entire frontline is, how neither side can really find any real weaknesses is beyond me, the amount of work going into fortifying the lines has been quite astonishing, so Russia has done well on that front.
 
Morty_ said:
They are still bad when going on the offense, so they aren't really getting anywhere, but then, neither is Ukraine.

Of course, offense is always more difficult than defense, but considering how wide and long the entire frontline is, how neither side can really find any real weaknesses is beyond me, the amount of work going into fortifying the lines has been quite astonishing, so Russia has done well on that front.
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Oh, I agree that they are bad when we look at the results, but I think it is more like they don't want to die than they are totally incompetent. It is grim for them to go through all of these to capture some ruined villages. And I can't blame soldiers for not throwing their lives away easily like decades ago, as they have better and more options to live for nowadays regardless of whoever is saying that what they should fight for.
 
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Morty_ said:
They are still bad when going on the offense, so they aren't really getting anywhere, but then, neither is Ukraine.

Of course, offense is always more difficult than defense, but considering how wide and long the entire frontline is, how neither side can really find any real weaknesses is beyond me, the amount of work going into fortifying the lines has been quite astonishing, so Russia has done well on that front.
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Drones. Tactical reconnaissance has never before been this good. Basically it became impossible to do any surprising actions for the first time in history.
 
Assasinations include those of Dugina & militant blogger Tatarsky. Dugina's father was the intended target.

 
^ Also interesting nugget of info about Ukraine's initial own scepticism about Russia invading. The article mentions that Ukrainian intel was eavesdropping on Russian units who themselves weren't informed until the eve of the war. So they were getting their intel from Russians who were in the dark themselves.

US intelligence had other separate streams of intel that Ukraine did not have.
 
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