Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Financial Times articles can be read with archive.ph most of the time (in my experience).
Are we now officially into mud season in Ukraine? Meaning front lines are probably quite set now?
Struggling to find much cause for short- or medium-term optimism for Ukraine.
I hope they don't lose Avdiivka, as it kind of defeats the purpose of chasing RA out of their territories. It has been clear that every territory would cost so much blood to retake. And it would have questioned the ability of the UA's troops if they kept losing cities even after all this support.
I don't see how Ukraine loses Avdiivka in the foreseeable future. Russia lost hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks and around 10.000 men in just 2 weeks for what, 1.5 km of land? The bad weather is coming soon as well. They cannot sustain such attacks for long with these losses. And the situation is a bit different than Bakhmut's. Wagner had 50.000 prisoner zombies at their disposal. Russian military might not value the lives of their men, but my feeling is they can't throw them the same way into the meatgrinder like Wagner did. Russian telegram channels report about the terrible losses in Avdiivka in a different tone than last year in Bakhmut. The public pressure could rise if they use them the same way.
Ukraine needs to hold their ground in 2024. Russia plans to use every third ruble for their war machinery. If they don't have any success in Ukraine next year, they'll start to crumble. No economy can sustain this level of spending for long. There will be light at the end of the tunnel.
Denmark puts US to shame today with their package:
Denmark and the whole Nordic / Baltic block really stood up when it counted.
T-72 in denmark?
Maybe they have sourced it from somewhere? Basically bought it for Ukraine?
Both the BMP-2s and the T-72s are from the Czech Republic, bought and refurbished by Denmark.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...therlands-ukraine-weapon-supplies-2023-09-19/
interesting
Article on deserted Russians.
How long I read this "Russia can sustain this level of..." since the beginning of the war. Soon 2 years and still on
Ukraine needs to hold their ground, with significantly less help from the US going forward, though.
Yes, other NATO countries contributes, but they aren't upping their productions nearly enough to what is needed, by comparison, Russia's stockpiles are larger than we could even think of, and they are going into, as you say, something of a war economy now.
Russia has prepared for this for years/decades, meanwhile, the big NATO-nations in Europe got lazy and complacent.
Would the US really deprive themselves from that free live testing ground for some of their more recent weapons though?
Europe need to pick up the pace for sure, but we have to be realistic as very few countries have that kind of quality and numbers in their weaponry. That being said, it would also greatly help if the Japanese and the South Koreans decide to up their game on that front.
The new house speaker is opposed to it, and about as far right as its possible to get in the republican party, US would be lucky to even hold the government open, let alone aid for Ukraine.
You're underestimate the lobbyists from the military industrial complex. They make politicians' balls bluer than the gun lobby does because it's about actual jobs.
In his first interview this has already been proven to be wrong. As soon as they step in an actual important role in US government, geopolitics become a lot more important.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eu-leaders-fight-slice-budget-pie-2023-10-26/
This veto system needs to change. With an unanimity system you're just helping Putin, who only needs to find one corrupt politician in the EU. It's just wrong that someone like Orban can slow down the whole EU.
This veto system needs to change. With an unanimity system you're just helping Putin, who only needs to find one corrupt politician in the EU. It's just wrong that someone like Orban can slow down the whole EU.
All well and good, but then, McCarthy said he supported Ukraine too, then removed aid in the last round of negotiations before getting ousted.
So, a bill with Ukraine aid has to come out of the house first, not going to take his words for it.
Ideologically ? Perhaps. Materially... don't think I agree. There's always been a lot of posturing by Putin about modernizing the military, hyping up the marketing for arm exports by manufacturers but the reform has never reached all that deeply.
Doesn't seem like the Russian Army proved they let behind the issues from their wars on Chechnya or Georgia. They were more successful in expeditionary warfare or the so called hybrid ops, granted, but I don't think they expected to be engaged in an actual "near peer" conventional campaign that's will probably last a year at the shortest.
I think they proved more resilient than the always too rosy "NATO enthusiasts" projections hoped but whatever gains they can make -from this vantage point- have already been paid with an exorbitant price in blood & treasure for non-existential objectives.
Apart from Baltic countries, I don't think any NATO member have to worry about being overwhelmed by a Russian conventional attack anytime soon.
Looking more like another Bakhmut type quagmire for the Russians. Loads of resources spent with little to show for it.
A good interview with Breedlove about the current state of affairs.
This is why they are having to combine aid for Ukraine and Israel into on bill.
All allowed by Putin of course.
Pressure on the left bank is beginning to yield the results.
Will the house do it? It looks like they will vote for Israel only and ignore the Ukraine aid pretty much.
Shouldn't those idiots be serving in Ukraine right now? I also saw that other video where one of those fools was putting his head right into the plane's engine.
They just wanted their house. The West's appeasement politics towards autocrats allows medieval savagery to breed.
The most effective and efficient anti armor weapons in this war so far are clearly mines and drones. Javelins are better of course, but very expensive. Russia held off Ukrainian's counter offensive mainly with their huge mine fields. I fear mines will be produced at an unprecedented level going into the future. As a consequence, it'll be even more dangerous for civilians to return to former war zones.
I doubt that it was allowed by him. It’s in many ways a consequence of his actions (from nurturing “traditional values” to supporting HAMAS), but I doubt that it had started from up top — by most accounts it was a ground root movement that began with a spread of misinformation that the jews on the plane were coming to Dagestan as settlers.
Yes. They are nuts.
I'm increasingly convinced Putin has instructed his troll factory to hack into ChatGPT with this narrative.