Could be a coincidence, could be the start of something bigger. To me it looks like Ukraine won't sit idle this winter if Russia starts their energy terror again. This is maybe the reason Biden vetoed ATACMS in the last second, because he fears Ukraine could use them for retaliation?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Could be a coincidence, could be the start of something bigger. To me it looks like Ukraine won't sit idle this winter if Russia starts their energy terror again. This is maybe the reason Biden vetoed ATACMS in the last second, because he fears Ukraine could use them for retaliation?
Sorry for the ignorance but havent Ukraine received some ATACMS already?
Or the range is the question?
Or the range is the question?
No they haven't.
Relentless strikes against targets in Crimea now. Its starting to look like they are fairly defenceless there against the air.
Yep, and it remains to be seen whether Russia can replace the lost air defence systems, ships, and naval infrastructure.
It’s been relatively simple (although expensive) for them to replace men, tanks and AFV’s etc, but this feels very different.
This could be Russia’s achilles heel. After all, what good is Crimea to them if it doesn’t have safe, well manned warm-water ports there?
Any idea what they hit in the most recent strikes? I read somewhere that it was Russia’s naval HQ; hopefully a few senior officers were working late that night.
Yeah, after taking out a couple of S-400 systems as well as radars, it looks like Russian anti-air in Crimea is currently unable to protect the peninsula and Ukraine is exploiting it.
Do we know an intercept was actually attempted or they really lack enough AA systems there.
What are the missiles Ukraine is hitting at Crimea and how are they launched?
Crimea is the most protected Russian space with air defense, mostly with S400 (plus useless systems like pantsir and more). 2 systems were already destroyed by a nation that has a handful of semi modern cruise missiles, next to 0 air force, uses mediocre anti ship missiles like the Neptune to hit ground targets and even very old S200 missiles.
Now I know why Ukraine can do this and it's not because they are using 5th get aircraft or NSM or any real tech from the West in terms of stealth. It is because they use fairly standard decoys (small missiles that have the radar cross section of a plane or large cruise missile) and the S400 radar can not tell the difference, so it gets overwhelmed easily. The S400 is a pile of something not because of the performance of the interceptors, but because the radars and identification of targets is at most 1990s level.
F16 will do very well because Russian radars are extremely vulnerable to decoys and thus easily overwhelmed to the point where they themselves become the main target. Put this in to comparison with the 2 Patriot systems that are protecting Kiev and how impposible it is for the orcs to do major damage here, let alone to accually destroy these systems.
We're not going to agree on this.
Storm Shadow / Scalp-EG air launched cruise missiles donated by the UK and France that have been modified so they can be launched from Ukrainian SU-24 aircrafts.
Its a combination of air launched stormshadows and ground launched Neptune's (anti-ship missiles, adapted for ground attack) and S-200's (anti-air, adapted for ground attack), s-200 more used to saturate air-defense. They reportedly are also still using ADM-160, which are the decoy missles that can mimic stormshadows, etc. Also combined with cardboard drones to saturate AD more.
Trebuchet, a fecking big one
Thanks guys. 
How does decoy work, you send cheaper and smaller missiles to overhelm radar so the real thing can go through?
How does decoy work, you send cheaper and smaller missiles to overhelm radar so the real thing can go through?Fair enough and you might as well be correct here.
I wanted to make the case for why Ukraine can strike the way it does in the best air protected space of Russia and thus, F16s will also benefit from the same frailties of the Russian AA and in so doing, they will be a major benefit.
We'll disagree on this. As these strikes prove Ukraine can perform well with their existing jets. F-16 don't add any new capabilities for this kind of long range strike and they are as vulnerable to air defence as the existing jets. They will be a benefit for their better air-to-air capabilities, but this is unrelated to the current crisis of Russian air defense.
Gerasimov? When did you get a redcaf account?Thanks guys.
Or it is Shoiguuu
The ghost of Kadyrov
He ded?
You say yourself a major improvement that the jets will have. Air to air is not just jet vs jet but also defense against cruise missiles ( that patrolling F16s can do while Ukrainian planes can not).
In terms of front line benefit, I don't think there is an aircraft that has more weapons integration then the F16. The World of all US made air lunched weapons is open with the F16. You think a few Storm Shadow/ Scalp missiles are a major problem for the orcs? Almost everything the US is making is integrated to the F16 and you can be sure they will come.
Why do you think the US was hesitant about the F16? It was not the F35 with super secret stealth or Eurofighter with mega advanced avionics and EW. The US was reluctant because the F16 means opening the way for a very large box of weapon systems: long range AA, cruise missiles, anti radiation missiles, etc.
The F-16 is able to connect with almost all western ground attack munitions, this means that the pilot can input target cordinates while in the air, this will be a major advantage compared to how things are now with target cordinates having to be inputed on the ground before take off. With the F-16's the lead time for air strikes will go down a lot.
Thanks guys.
You’d probably send lots, the cheapest at first, at different speeds, from different angles, aimed at different points around Crimea . Get the defenders to fire their already loaded missiles and thus need to reload (I’m assuming that is a thing). Keep it going for a few hours overnight and you have a group of very tired, confused air defence operatives who aren’t mentally or physically ready for the main course.
All true, I probably should rephrase a bit: the F16 will be an improvement because it is a better system using better and more armament.
But the state of Russian air defense doesn't matter, it will be a benefit no matter how good or bad this works.
I may be oversensitive but I saw many people suggest that the current strikes against AD are to prepare for the arrival of F16s, and that is just not the case. Ukraine is doing it because they right now have the means to do deep strikes to strategic targets, not to prepare for something that is still months away.
For sure not (the bold part). F16s are still a long way away. Nothing that is happening today is about new jets. What Ukraine is doing now is mostly for the counter offensive.
I guess that a potential effect of the F16 for today might be to create a bit of panic within the orcs organization. Something like if we (Ukraine) are able to attack your positions, including Crimea, then how do you feel about we improving on these 10 times over when the new jets come? It has a demoralizing effect for sure.
But yes I agree, the question of new jets is for the future. The immediate effect is in terms of making Saruman feel like the ring in closer and closer to the lava.
Personally, I'm bored of the atacms conversation, nothing has changed on it in well over a year. Just let me know if any ever turn up.
edit: multiple outlets now reporting a small number will be supplied. Zelensky working his ass off over there I guess.
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Hope the paper’s building is only one story.
Pending confirmation
I think Russian officials might expedite remote working by now. взлететь must be soaring
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Can’t wait for Solovyov’s take on this