Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

stefan92 said:
That's not a big factor now I think. They are able to do deep strikes using drones, cruise missiles (both air and land launched - Storm Shadow, Scalp, Neptune) already, they don't need the F-16 for this capability. But obviously to increase the success of any long range attack it makes a lot of sense to start with the enemies air defense.

The biggest new capability of the F-16 will be long-range air-to-air combat, which Ukraine can't perform right now due to a lack of fitting long-range AA-missiles for their current planes (only Russia has those which gives them an advantage in air-to-air combat).
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Always a good thing to get closer to the front line to strike deeper into enemy territory, plus they might be thinking to have them loiter near targets as they come in from ground troops.
 
Klishchiivka is next and that would mean pressure on Bakhmut city. Russians will find themselves in the same situation Ukraine was last summer. Sitting ducks in Bakhmut, but with a big difference. Most of the buildings are destroyed now.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Klishchiivka is next and that would mean pressure on Bakhmut city. Russians will find themselves in the same situation Ukraine was last summer. Sitting ducks in Bakhmut, but with a big difference. Most of the buildings are destroyed now.
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I think one of the Ukrainian units fighting there denied it was fully under control yesterday didn't they?
 
TwoSheds said:
I think one of the Ukrainian units fighting there denied it was fully under control yesterday didn't they?
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Some contradictory statements yesterday, but today they are confirming it. Its just a small village, now completely destroyed, but has been a point of contention for a long time.
 
Looks like Klishchiivka is also liberated, although official confirmation is still pending.
 
Bad tea or did he catch a cold by standing too long near a open window?

 
Browsing the CE is such a good experience lately.

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Surovikin is in Africa. I hope he packs a parachute on the way home to Russia. Just in case.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Bad tea or did he catch a cold by standing too long near a open window?

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Would be a bad thing for Putin if he dies (Kadyrov that is) as it could destablize that area since Ramzan was little more than a regional stooge emplaced to keep a lid on separatism.
 
T00lsh3d said:
Can you explain to the dozy amongst us who are too tired to research, exactly what that means please
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Kadyrov is loyal to Putin and controls Chechnya. Ichkeria is the Chechen Republic that wants independence. It’s an interesting dynamic, many Russian Chechens have died fighting for Russia and if Kadyrov goes maybe there will be another war there.
 
T00lsh3d said:
Can you explain to the dozy amongst us who are too tired to research, exactly what that means please
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Kadyrov's father switched allegiances in the second Chechen war to support Russia around 2000 (instead of fighting against them). Putin, in his early days in office then made him the President of Chechnya, thereby giving Putin a loyal proxy who would stabilize Chechnya on his behalf and squash any further successionist movements. The older Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004 and Putin subsequently groomed his son Ramzan to replace him, which he has done ever since.

With Ramzan now allegedly in a coma, his death would probably destabilize Putin's grip on that region, which would be doubly bad timing given that most of his resources are tied up in Ukraine, and his own regime at home is growing weaker by the month (the Prigozhin mutiny that sent Putin' scurrying back to St. Petersburg being the most recent example).

That's why a few pundits are suggesting Kadyrov's demise would be bad for Putin.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Kadyrov is loyal to Putin and controls Chechnya. Ichkeria is the Chechen Republic that wants independence. It’s an interesting dynamic, many Russian Chechens have died fighting for Russia and if Kadyrov goes maybe there will be another war there.
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Raoul said:
Kadyrov's father switched allegiances in the second Chechen war to support Russia around 2000 (instead of fighting against them). Putin, in his early days in office then made him the President of Chechnya, thereby giving Putin a loyal proxy who would stabilize Chechnya on his behalf and squash any further successionist movements. The older Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004 and Putin subsequently groomed his son Ramzan to replace him, which he has done ever since.

With Ramzan now allegedly in a coma, his death would probably destabilize Putin's grip on that region, which would be doubly bad timing given that most of his resources are tied up in Ukraine, and his own regime at home is growing weaker by the month (the Prigozhin mutiny that sent Putin' scurrying back to St. Petersburg being the most recent example).

That's why a few pundits are suggesting Kadyrov's demise would be bad for Putin.
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Thanks fellas. Is there a realistic chance of an uprising? Or just fanciful talk?
 
“If the war stopped today, it would take Russia between three and five years to restore military might and capabilities to the level they would need to strike the next neighboring country.”
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Raoul said:
Further to the above.

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To be honest, I wouldn't get my hopes up. Even if it's true and he is dieing, or so seriously ill that he can't continue to govern chechnya (and that's a big IF, because he'll get the best treatment possible), Putin will prepare for his, maybe even right now and groom the next successor, as he did with with Ramsan Kadyrov.
Last time I read about chechnya, his family held all the positions of power. Maybe an inner fight for succession could weaken their grip on chechnya, but Putin will never allow it. He will simply name a successor in case Ramsan dies and that's it. They won't go to war with Putin, that would mean losing all privileges, wealth and most likely their life. His family live like kings in chechnya, Putin bought their loyalty and I think he has nothing to fear, even if Ramsan dies.
 
Looks like the southern offensive has stalled, barely any movement in the last week.

Was hoping for more, the Tokmak front was the one area with significant progress, but good news is hard to come by these days.

If they don't get much further in the next month, mud season arrives, and then Russia have time to build new fortifications and minefields, sigh....
 
Morty_ said:
Looks like the southern offensive has stalled, barely any movement in the last week.

Was hoping for more, the Tokmak front was the one area with significant progress, but good news is hard to come by these days.

If they don't get much further in the next month, mud season arrives, and then Russia have time to build new fortifications and minefields, sigh....
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I think their progress is constant, though slow. All these liberating news stories kind of excite people, but if you look at the map, those are just small areas, and they have been in that area fighting for weeks. And they will keep doing it for another small area, village, etc. after that, and the news will show that.

It is hard to be truly excited for them until they get to some big cities like Tokmak, for obvious reasons.

For the mud season, I hope UKR is preparing the massive obstacle buildings in the NE as well. With rumors of another massive mobilization in Russia, that front may be vulnerable to them.
 
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