Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone said:
Wagner guys are mercenaries at the end of the day. They are not necessarily ideologically attached to Wagner. If Wagner can not pay salaries anymore, then it's game over.
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Well... are they really? Looking at Wagners history it is just an unofficial branch of the army, full of veterans and among them a lot quite nationalist ones. It's not just a mercenary company, it is Russians ready to fight for Russia everywhere on the world.

So lots of them have some ideological attachment, and now they lost their leading figures. And it is true, Prigozhin at least appeared to care for Russians and at some point was ready to pull the plug (I presume when he was running out of worthless convicts and had to send worthy Russians to certain death). Who will now publicly care for the (fighting) Russians? Everybody there knows that the answer isn't Putin.

However at this point I severely doubt that they have the means to perform another stunt like two months ago. They got get them again quickly if they have enough support in the army, but I guess that is questionable.
 
I thought that video was from a different event? But, if it was about this one, it seems that they tried to maximize the terror before plummeting into death. I can't say the guy didn't deserve it, though. A pity though that the other guy who took down the Malaysia airline was not in it.
 
B20 said:
That's exactly why I think there might be a counter reaction. They all saw how close they were before Prighozin got cold feet. The top in Wagner now must be thinking that either they go quietly into the night and fall out of windows in the coming year, or they go and finish what might still be a very achievable coup.
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The top of Wagner is eliminated. Meduza has a good article on it, they've asked current and ex-Wagner members about their opinion on what happened – here's a few excerpts:
It's sad, of course: Prigozhin was a serious dude, we've called him "Batya" (Dad). But the time has gone, you know? If it would've happened on the 27th of June, straight after the march, then yes, there would've been a reaction. And now... some are on a holiday, some try to fix their lives up. Some are already working for the Ministry of Defense
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Nothing to worry about: people will talk shit for a couple of weeks and then people will forget about it. About the guys – some are locked up in Belarus, some in Africa, the rest are spread thin throughout the entire Russia. They were broken up preemptively – the government has ensured its safety.
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harms said:
The top of Wagner is eliminated. Meduza has a good article on it, they've asked current and ex-Wagner members about their opinion on what happened – here's a few excerpts:
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Yes, Putin would not have ordered Prigozhin's assassination without first making sure he had nothing to fear from his Wagners. He didn't wait for two months only to take a cold revenge, but also used that time to weaken Wagner. 20k Wagners with heavy armor were a real threat to Putin. But now, 2 months later with one part in Africa, one part signed contracts with the MoD. They had to leave their heavy armor behind going to Belarus. They're not a threat anymore.
 
U.S., Ukraine Clash Over Counteroffensive Strategy

The American advice is based on the calculation that the surge of equipment the U.S. has funneled to Ukraine—more than $43 billion in weaponry has been committed over the years—is enough for this offensive and is unlikely to be repeated at anywhere near the same level in 2024.
“We built up this mountain of steel for the counteroffensive. We can’t do that again,” one former U.S. official said. “It doesn’t exist.”
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“You don’t understand the nature of this conflict,” Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, the Ukrainian commander, responded in one interaction with the Americans, a U.S. official recounted. “This is not counterinsurgency. This is Kursk,” the commander added, referring to the major World War II battle between Germany and the Soviet Union.
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It isn’t too late for Ukraine to make gains, according to U.S. officials.
Ukrainian commanders also say that time hasn’t yet run out on their counteroffensive, and Zaluzhny has told U.S. officials his forces are on the cusp of a breakthrough.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-ukraine-clash-over-counteroffensive-strategy-cb5e4324
 
This clip coming from a Russia source, but there does seem to be a fair bit of reporting that Ukraine is not sitting on its heels at Robotnye.



Also, lots of AD activity south of Moscow atm.
 
Simbo said:
This clip coming from a Russia source, but there does seem to be a fair bit of reporting that Ukraine is not sitting on its heels at Robotnye.

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At least during the night nothing happened, the big Ukrainian movement just ended without a fight, instead they took camps closer to the front.

Looks like they still want to prepare more before pushing through, but by being closer to the front they now can react faster with those troops.

This looks like a prime example for the Ukrainian reluctance to perform a big push that was criticised especially in the US a few days ago.
 
stefan92 said:
At least during the night nothing happened, the big Ukrainian movement just ended without a fight, instead they took camps closer to the front.

Looks like they still want to prepare more before pushing through, but by being closer to the front they now can react faster with those troops.

This looks like a prime example for the Ukrainian reluctance to perform a big push that was criticised especially in the US a few days ago.
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If these numbers are true, that's pretty much a full mechanised brigade and perhaps the first time Ukraine have committed a significant force in any direction. Could be a sign of the counter-offensive finally getting underway.

Personally, I don't give much credence to these anonymous "US Officials" that nyt/wsj spams us with "quotes" from on a daily basis to pretend they are a relevant news source in for this war. Either way, if some dude sat on the other side of the world, without a clue about the situation on the ground, is criticising Ukraine for not throwing its people into harms way as much as they would like... They need a fecking slap.
 
Simbo said:
Personally, I don't give much credence to these anonymous "US Officials" that nyt/wsj spams us with "quotes" from on a daily basis to pretend they are a relevant news source in for this war. Either way, if some dude sat on the other side of the world, without a clue about the situation on the ground, is criticising Ukraine for not throwing its people into harms way as much as they would like... They need a fecking slap.
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Exactly. You can also include WP in that list. Their "Officials" are probably some Gulf War relics with as much inside knowledge as we have. They sell single opinions like some official statements just to bait klicks.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Exactly. You can also include WP in that list. Their "Officials" are probably some Gulf War relics with as much inside knowledge as we have. They sell single opinions like some official statements just to bait klicks.
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I doubt that. Just look at the top of this page where WSJ quotes "Officials" citing their meeting with Zaluzhny. So I do think that there is truly a rift between (some) US military officers and the Ukrainian generals.

And that would be no surprise I think - when was the last time the US fought a war against a (at least in some aspects) stronger army? Probably early WW2 in the Pacific theatre. Which was 80 years ago.
 
VorZakone said:
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I think it also might have slightly different effect to some. You can't trust Putin for any sort of "deal" because he'll proceed to alter the terms of the deal. Something that may not have been the case before. Which may cause some of the elite that consider themselves a flight risk , to act sooner and go out with a bang.
 
B20 said:
That's not new
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Right I'd seen they were disproportionately conscripting from ethnic minorities. But didn't know they were drafting foreigners.

I would say surely that's illegal but then it's Russia.
 
stevoc said:
Right I'd seen they were disproportionately conscripting from ethnic minorities. But didn't know they were drafting foreigners.

I would say surely that's illegal but then it's Russia.
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Probably no longer illegal there, they can pass new laws overnight.
 
stevoc said:
So they're conscripting foreign workers now?
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No, they don't. The video in question talks about people with Russian passports.

They are inviting foreigners to join the army on a contract basis* but they aren't conscripting them – there isn't any legal way to do that (which doesn't always mean that there isn't a way to do that in Russia but there haven't been any known cases yet).

* when we're talking about people who have issues with their visas etc. sometimes they're given a choice between deportation and signing the contract
 
harms said:
* when we're talking about people who have issues with their visas etc. sometimes they're given a choice between deportation and signing the contract
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Unless they are wanted criminals back home, it's bit of a one sided "choice" though ? Can't imagine any would voluntarily sign up.
 
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