Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Clearing mines for an assault and removing all mines are 2 different tasks.
Mine clearance for an assault is usually in narrow channels towards a defined objective. The remaining minefield only comes into play if you have to retreat in a disorderly fashion.
So the Russian approach is aimed at just slowing the Ukrainian advance as they dont have enough airpower to provide close air support or carpet bomb the minefields. The Ukrainians are having to set achievable goals and not get too far ahead of their air support or they will be picked off by Russian helicopters.
When the Ukranians get F16's they will be able to wipe out the Russian helicopter threat and they will potentially be able to "break out" if they find a weak spot.
Russian citizens hoping for Lukashenko to deal with a local problem:
The Wagner mutiny definitely was the biggest PR win for Lukashenko in a long time. I bet he never expected this and will be laughing all day if he hears about this.
The Wagner mutiny definitely was the biggest PR win for Lukashenko in a long time. I bet he never expected this and will be laughing all day if he hears about this.
I know you aren’t saying it will be, but whilst we’re on the topic of F16s, I’m not sure getting F16s will be the holy grail some people think it will be.
There is learning to fly them (the easier part), and then learning to deploy weapons systems effectively whilst flying.Training on them normally takes years, even for experienced pilots.
There are logistics and the training of engineers to support them, you need very clean and well maintained runways to avoid damaging engines. You’d probably have to have lots of western contractors on the ground, at least at the beginning.
I can see Russia taking a few out quite quickly (or taking out runways making them harder to operate), and exploiting the fact that such expensive machinery donated by the West is going to waste.
I’m not saying it won’t be a useful tool for Ukraine and they should definitely get them. But I’d warn against it being a quick and decisive route to victory.
I am certain Putin himself is mad about this local viceroy upstaging him
Sadly I also believe this will be the case. It's the same problem with the counteroffensive. If you announce something half a year in advance, you give your enemy that time to prepare. Russians could prepare roughly half a year for the counteroffensive and we see the result now. Minefields and trenches over the whole front, many kilometers deep. Extremly difficult to overcome.
Now they can prepare half a year for a few dozen F-16. I fear the result will be similar to the counteroffensive. Russia has more than enough time to deploy their anti air and scan Ukraine for all possible runways. We just go in circles and it's frustrating. This way, the war will drag on for many years and Ukraine will continue to suffer.
You seem to ignore the fact that Russia already isn't able to stop Ukraine from operating its MiG-29 and Su-25 fleet. If they were able to take them out they would have done so (and tried it from day one). They don't have time to prepare, they are failing for 17 months to win air superiority.
In that regard nothing really changes once the F-16 arrive.
They certainly want more - I'm not sure they are saying out loud it's not enough to achieve significant military objectives. Really the public messaging to the west is aimed at getting more kit, not impartially describing the situation - though the two might often coincide.
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I speak from the point of view that the F-16s could play a bigger role, but if they have half a year to prepare for them, their impact will be limited I fear, because even Russia learns from mistakes. They will have a different focus on those F-16s, than on the old MiGs. The propaganda value will be huge showing destroyed F-16s. Also this will boost their export in anti air, if they manage to hit F-16 with it.
Eye for an eye now it seems.
No they won't be enough without some sort of AWACS support, but they will hopefully create a deeper band of close Air support.
They won't want the F16's going up against the Russians fighters, but they should be able to quickly pounce on Russian helicopters that have been limiting terretrorial gains to be in small increments.
I just wish that the "grain" situation was enough of a pretext to create a "UN no fly zone". It would potentially only need to be in place for a few weeks as I think Russian resistance would rapidly crumble.
First recorded use of cluster shells by Ukrainians?
They have been using them all war, as have Russia. Turkey was supplying them to the UA
Never seen this cat before, who is he?
He’s first and foremost a big supporter of Bashar al-Assad, and like all Assadists took up the cause of shilling for Putin after 2015.
Have you got any source or footage to back it up? I've seen hundreds of videos by now and I never saw Ukrainians use cluster munitions. It goes without saying that Russia has been using them since day one.
Quick google, lots of sources all said the same. As above poster says, also below.
Turkey Gives Cluster Bombs to Ukraine (foreignpolicy.com)
So there is no comment from either side about turkish cluster shells, nor is there any actual video of them being used, or is there?
Here we go...
So the question is why some people think that the offensive would be more effective now with the U.S supplies since they have had and used similar ammunitions already?
Is it that the amount from U.S is way higher? The quality? The range?
Or is it that some people are hyping the expectations again?
Is it that the amount from U.S is way higher? The quality? The range?
Or is it that some people are hyping the expectations again?
Because this is the first 155mm cluster munition that can be used more precisely and with longer range than the older 152mm
Oh I see. Thanks for the information.
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Looks like the Russians starting to feel the cluster shells at their own end. I just hope Ukraine got them in sufficient numbers to take at least the Bakhmut area.
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They've finally had enough of him
Girkin arrested? Interesting...
Let's hope protests and unrest starts in the occupied Donbass regions. That's the only upside I can see from this for Ukraine.
Their defence is terrified though.
@The United this lack of counter battery fire might be exactly what I talked about - Russian 152mm artillery simply can't reach 155mm artillery, so that can keep pounding the trenches.
The first part is actually a serious concern that many have had for European armies for awhile now. I’ve especially paid attention to the British Army’s changes over the last decade, and they’ve consistently made that problem worse at every chance. The thing they know they can rely on though is 1) they’d most likely be fighting alongside the US and 2) overwhelming air support