Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Yeah but what else can he say? It's not going that well?
It is like asking ETH if he will use Dave next season before the FA final. If the theory is that the main battles will be between light infantry squads, I would be concerned because how would that be good for UA, which has a lower population and has to be on the attacking side? And there are like hundreds of miles to clear out.
I’m not really sure what you’re getting at here.
You claimed the counteroffensive has been “a bit of a fail so far” and said you wouldn’t be surprised to see negotiations in the fall. The commanding general for Ukraine said folks need to realize what the reality on the ground is and be patient before deciding the fate of the counteroffensive.
It seems way too early to consider it failure, I’m not really sure what people expected.
EU plans €20B fund to stock Ukraine’s military for years.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-20-billion-fund-stock-ukraine-military-russia-war/
WTF is stopping me posting links correctly?!
Ha, indeed
So lets say that the UA clears 1 km of mines. Does someone that knows more of military tactics knows if it is feasable that the russian army seeds 1 km new layer at the back so they can just wait for the UA to keep losing equipement and men being sitting ducks?
Is that a possibility taking in a account mine stocks (economically and fastness of producing them) and if they can lay them fast enough?
Is that a normal tactic or i is dumb for me to think that is possible
Is that a possibility taking in a account mine stocks (economically and fastness of producing them) and if they can lay them fast enough?
Is that a normal tactic or i is dumb for me to think that is possible
One of the reasons why UA seemed to stop gaining much territory at the moment is that the Russians kept dropping mines on their trenches or the areas that were already cleared. So it takes even more time now. As everyone said, without a huge amount of equipment to rapidly clear a huge area followed by rapid breakthroughs, I have a hard time seeing UA getting to where they want to any time soon. Or unless the RA runs out of those, which is unlikely soon.
Saw this earlier and was surprised that they showed a UA soldier jumped out of an armor vehicle, stepped on a mine and it blew up. They did not show the whole thing but some parts. But still horrible. So be warned!
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<<All previous crimes of the Russian empire had been committed under the cover of a discreet shadow. The deportation of a million Lithuanians, the murder of hundreds of thousands of Poles, the liquidation of the Crimean Tatars remain in our memory, but no photographic documentation exists; sooner or later they will therefore be proclaimed as fabrications. Not so the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, of which both stills and motion pictures are stored in archives throughout the world.
Czech photographers and cameramen were acutely aware that they were the ones who could best do the only thing left to do: preserve the face of violence for the distant future. Seven days in a row, Tereza roamed the streets, photographing Russian soldiers and officers in compromising situations. The Russians did not know what to do. They had been carefully briefed about how to behave if someone fired at them or threw stones, but they had received no directives about what to do when someone aimed a lens. >>
[...]
<<She kept coming back to the speech Dubcek had given over the radio after his return from Moscow. Although she had completely forgotten what he said, she could still hear his quavering voice. She thought about how foreign soldiers had arrested him, the head of an independent state, in his own country, held him for four days somewhere in the Ukrainian mountains, informed him he was to be executed—as, a decade before, they had executed his Hungarian counterpart Imre Nagy—then packed him off to Moscow, ordered him to have a bath and shave, to change his clothes and put on a tie, apprised him of the decision to commute his execution, instructed him to consider himself head of state once more, sat him at a table opposite Brezhnev, and forced him to act.
He returned, humiliated, to address his humiliated nation. He was so humiliated he could not even speak. Tereza would never forget those awful pauses in the middle of his sentences. Was he that exhausted? Ill? Had they drugged him? Or was it only despair? If nothing was to remain of Dubcek, then at least those awful long pauses when he seemed unable to breathe, when he gasped for air before a whole nation glued to its radios, at least those pauses would remain. Those pauses contained all the horror that had befallen their country. >>
The Unbearable Lightness of Being, 1984
Milan Kundera, died 11 July 2023 (aged 94)
Czech photographers and cameramen were acutely aware that they were the ones who could best do the only thing left to do: preserve the face of violence for the distant future. Seven days in a row, Tereza roamed the streets, photographing Russian soldiers and officers in compromising situations. The Russians did not know what to do. They had been carefully briefed about how to behave if someone fired at them or threw stones, but they had received no directives about what to do when someone aimed a lens. >>
[...]
<<She kept coming back to the speech Dubcek had given over the radio after his return from Moscow. Although she had completely forgotten what he said, she could still hear his quavering voice. She thought about how foreign soldiers had arrested him, the head of an independent state, in his own country, held him for four days somewhere in the Ukrainian mountains, informed him he was to be executed—as, a decade before, they had executed his Hungarian counterpart Imre Nagy—then packed him off to Moscow, ordered him to have a bath and shave, to change his clothes and put on a tie, apprised him of the decision to commute his execution, instructed him to consider himself head of state once more, sat him at a table opposite Brezhnev, and forced him to act.
He returned, humiliated, to address his humiliated nation. He was so humiliated he could not even speak. Tereza would never forget those awful pauses in the middle of his sentences. Was he that exhausted? Ill? Had they drugged him? Or was it only despair? If nothing was to remain of Dubcek, then at least those awful long pauses when he seemed unable to breathe, when he gasped for air before a whole nation glued to its radios, at least those pauses would remain. Those pauses contained all the horror that had befallen their country. >>
The Unbearable Lightness of Being, 1984
Milan Kundera, died 11 July 2023 (aged 94)
It's absolutely pathetic, that still no one promises to escort the grain ships in international waters even without an agreement. No Turkey, no NATO, no one. After 1.5 years of war, they still fear Putin so much that they can't even promise protection in international waters. Spineless leaders, it's so frustrating. Just watch how they will give in to some of Putin's demands, so the deal continues. And he will prey on that and use this kind of threats again and again to ease more and more sanctions.
Again terror on civilian infrastructure. The expected answer for the Kerch bridge.
Indeed. It's utterly pathetic, and I can also lay some blame on the US for doing feck all when those are easy points to score with countries in need of that grain.
The US Navy should have elements of its Fifth and Sixth Fleets spearheading a multinational force patrolling the international waters of the Black Sea, especially since China and Russia are already doing the same in the Sea of Japan. Feck those dictatorships and their feelings.
Scatterable mines fired from artillery systems have been used by both sides in this war, most of the Russian MLRS can deploy both anti-personnel and anti-tank mines.
It's a common tactic used by militaries when you want to deny access to an area for the enemy and don't have time to set up a proper minefield.
This would probably mean breaking the treaty of Montreux and open the doof for Russia moving more ships into the Black Sea.
Only those ships already operating in the Black Sea could be used without that trouble.
Vegetation in full bloom, very limited sight, everywhere holes and trenches where Russians could ambush you, narrow paths which could be mined. Those people complain about the counteroffensive's speed should watch some videos on how hard it is just to take a single position in a forest strip.
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Is that the video with people being killed at close range? Better put a spoiler/content warning on it if so.
The upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa also seems to become a bit embarassing for Putin. SA is a member of the Den Haag court and therefore would have had to arrest Putin. They did ask for an exemption from this rule, but so far none was granted.
Now it is confirmed that Putin will not attend at all. So it looks like the leader of the (until recently looking like it) second biggest power in the world no fears being arrested by a generally friendly and not that big country.
No matter what is going on on the battlefield, Putin himself looks weaker and weaker in recent weeks.
Now it is confirmed that Putin will not attend at all. So it looks like the leader of the (until recently looking like it) second biggest power in the world no fears being arrested by a generally friendly and not that big country.
No matter what is going on on the battlefield, Putin himself looks weaker and weaker in recent weeks.
I suppose the thought is that Russia's weaknesses are bad moral and bad organisation and political incompetence. The most likely expected route for the counter offensive to succeed was if soft underbellies were exposed that led to key defences crumbling and a cascade of chaos that the Ukranians could capitalise on. So far that seems not to be looking that likely.
There are no kills, just some shooting into dark holes without any visible Russians there. Position looks abandoned, but the video shows how hard it is to take such positions on a daily basis. But sure, I can still put it in a spoiler.
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I've personally stopped reading into this idea of Putin is 'weak' or 'strong', it's relatively clear his internal image has been dogshite for a long time but no one can do anything about it. Internationally I'd wager most governments see him as nothing more than a crook, even most of his allies. In any democratic country he'd have been hounded out of power years ago, the question really is how long will Russia suffer him now it is clear they won't win in Ukraine (not that Ukraine will 'win' either for a long time) and their economy is shot. They seized Carlsberg and Danone's in country assets yesterday which seems a desperate last resort for them long term if they want to try and attract international business back to Russia.
No need for a spoiler if there's nothing explicit in it, thought it might be the video that went around a while back.
I blame the media a little bit to be honest, they hype ukraine so much they create a lot of silly expectations on people. The way some news channels talked about the counteroffensive it made it sound like ukraine would be marching on moscow by christmas.
I think earlier Russian incompetence and underestimating of the opposition lead to this perception that if you kick the door lightly it will collapse . Once the RA came to terms with the situation and their actual abilities, and their switch to a focus of defense (Bakhmut excluded) , which they had ample time to prepare lead to this WW1 style grind, which seemingly cannot have a quick resolution without CAS.
The media hyped their capabilities up a lot in the beginning, which they deserved for obvious reasons. But that had a lot to do with Russians being sh*t. Russians getting some of their sh*t together with new UA recruits learning the rope probably didn't meet the expectations of some.
But this counterattack speed news has nothing to do with the hype. I think it has something to do with people's anxiety. Some of them probably just wanted to get it done quickly with terms favorable to UA.
Yeah, and not to mention that people usually ignore the noises coming from sources close to the UA army that it is not so much better than the RA in many senses. It is too rigid, too centralized, and not flexible enough.
These things at least can be subject to change with the gradual Nato style training
That may all be true but I know people who just casually watch the news at dinner time and they are surprised why it's taking so long. The only media they watch created those expectations.
I follow the media a lot and never have I seen journalists from the likes of BBC, Reuters, CNN etc make the implication that Ukraine was going to walk over the Russians.
It seems to me that it isn't the "media" to blame but simply people not understanding how tough the situation is for Ukraine. Maybe that's something to blame the media for but even then the media regularly invites field experts and they tend to be neutral/cautious too.
And who invented that narrative?
These are the top 4 resultsI get if I search "cnn portugal advances in ukraine".
The 2022 results roughly translate to:
"in just 4 hours, ukraine accelerates the conquest, russians can't hide ukranian advances"
"they call it the mad max army and its responsible for the fast advance of ukraine in the frontline"
"the russians are running away in a rush"
Then the 2023 result:
"the counteroffensive in ukraine is not meeting the expectations"
I just can't help thinking it's kinda their own fault the expectations are not being met, since they were the ones responsible for a lot of it.
