At the same time I thought that telegram was without need for 3rd party server therefore eliminating MIM attacks. And was e2e encrypted . I am not absolutely certain though.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Yep. It had the energy of a prank call, which it more or less was
I think that was the original intent when Durov developed it but I’ve seen recent reports that the Russian government restricted certain content about the rebellion on Telegram channels so I’m pretty sure they have their claws into how to shut down communications during times of emergency.
VK, which Durov also developed and is now owned by a Putin crony, definitely shut down all references to Prigozhin during the rebellion.
Croatian Homeland war lasted from 1991 to 1995, there are still mines around, few but the country still hasnt been completely demined.
Are they personal mines? Are thry still allowed? If so, there are still victims from them in croatia?
No, just left from the war, unfortunately there are still victims, rarely but it happens still, deminers and civilians both.
Hard to watch. One of the, if not the biggest ongoing warcrime. One of the most important tasks has to be to put all those involved in front of The Hague, otherwise the rules and control mechanisms for international human rights are not worth the paper they are written on.
It's absolutely despicable what they've done.
I doubt Putin was worried about Moldova entering NATO or EU before Maia Sandu was elected in 2020. He had the president before her in his pocket. Like a mini Lukashenko.
My interpretation of the course of events is this:
At the start of the war, the Russian army proved to be much worse than initially expected. Many experts blamed this on a) Putin purposely weakining the military to minimize the risk of a coup and b) a deeply rooted corruption. Soldiers would only report what their superiors wanted to hear, being critical would be interpreted as disloyalty and exploiting your position to enrich yourself is the custom. This meant Putin sat in an ivory tower and made his decisions on the basis of wrong information both about the state of his army as well as the situation in Ukraine.
Wagner is a very different organization. Prighozin is rather hands on and closer to the foot soldiers. They grant their officers more freedom and are less bureaucratic and thus proved to be a much bigger threat for Ukraine than the regular Russian forces. Anyway, in the end Wagner still relied on the Russian MoD and the longer the war continued, the more this did take its toll. Prighozin was probably getting increasingly tired of the incompetence he experienced first hand and that probably cost many of his soldiers' lifes and all for an overall phyrric victory in the grander scheme of things. At the beginning, this might not even been intended by the MoD but just their usual expertise in failure, especially in regards to logistics. It probably began to sink in that the war couldn't be won this way as he grew frustrated with the pointlessness and became vocal about it. This escalated into a feud with Shoigu that quickly spiralled out of control. At this point, the MoD probably intentionally held back ammunition and supplies intentionally in a display of power to show Prighozin his place only adding fuel to the fire. Putin, as he tends to do in this war, remained indecisive and an open battle for power emerged.
Prighozin could not have been the only one seeing the incompetence of the whole military apparatus and the terrible upwards flow of information (he even claimed a few times that Putin was lied to by his consultants). He was well connected in the military, so he probably knew likeminded people in high positions. And as the conflict escalated out of control, he probably began to ask himself why he should let Shoigu threaten him when he sees first hand how incompetent the Russian military is in comparison to his own forces, likely saw how amateurish the national defense was organized and how easy it would have been to capture Rostov. At some point, he realized they wanted to eliminate him and Putin didn't protect him. So he found himself backed into a corner by an incompetent military that left his forces an easy to breach path to one of their most important logistic hubs, he knew Shoigu and Putin have lost much support in the military and among officers, that important information wouldn't get to them, that he had much support among the population as Wagner were lauded as heroes, and took his chance. Not one motive but multiples ones and the most important probably being the threat for his life. Possibly he indeed was tired of Shoigu's incompetence and wanted him gone to reorganize the army.
He seemed to have judged many things much better than most of the Russian regime as they were caught completely off guard. That they took it very seriously is evidenced by Putin's and Lukashenko's evacuations. Anyway, probably a few of his deemed supporters didn't follow up or maybe when he was offered an offramp, he just took it. Better be exiled in Belarus than waiting for your inevitable assassination in Russia. His coup has now elevated him to a status in which it is hard to kill him without making him a martyr while the deal between him and Putin seems to be very basic (stop the rebellion and save your life in exchange) as both parties are still firing shots at each other. I don't think the last chapter in this has been written. Even if it would have been great for Ukraine if there had been even more turmoil, the outcome is still good. Wagner is more or less gone and the people that stand for the incompetence and corruption of state and military remain in charge. On top of it, insurgencies are only likelier now than they have been as Putin's reputation took a severe hit.
At the start of the war, the Russian army proved to be much worse than initially expected. Many experts blamed this on a) Putin purposely weakining the military to minimize the risk of a coup and b) a deeply rooted corruption. Soldiers would only report what their superiors wanted to hear, being critical would be interpreted as disloyalty and exploiting your position to enrich yourself is the custom. This meant Putin sat in an ivory tower and made his decisions on the basis of wrong information both about the state of his army as well as the situation in Ukraine.
Wagner is a very different organization. Prighozin is rather hands on and closer to the foot soldiers. They grant their officers more freedom and are less bureaucratic and thus proved to be a much bigger threat for Ukraine than the regular Russian forces. Anyway, in the end Wagner still relied on the Russian MoD and the longer the war continued, the more this did take its toll. Prighozin was probably getting increasingly tired of the incompetence he experienced first hand and that probably cost many of his soldiers' lifes and all for an overall phyrric victory in the grander scheme of things. At the beginning, this might not even been intended by the MoD but just their usual expertise in failure, especially in regards to logistics. It probably began to sink in that the war couldn't be won this way as he grew frustrated with the pointlessness and became vocal about it. This escalated into a feud with Shoigu that quickly spiralled out of control. At this point, the MoD probably intentionally held back ammunition and supplies intentionally in a display of power to show Prighozin his place only adding fuel to the fire. Putin, as he tends to do in this war, remained indecisive and an open battle for power emerged.
Prighozin could not have been the only one seeing the incompetence of the whole military apparatus and the terrible upwards flow of information (he even claimed a few times that Putin was lied to by his consultants). He was well connected in the military, so he probably knew likeminded people in high positions. And as the conflict escalated out of control, he probably began to ask himself why he should let Shoigu threaten him when he sees first hand how incompetent the Russian military is in comparison to his own forces, likely saw how amateurish the national defense was organized and how easy it would have been to capture Rostov. At some point, he realized they wanted to eliminate him and Putin didn't protect him. So he found himself backed into a corner by an incompetent military that left his forces an easy to breach path to one of their most important logistic hubs, he knew Shoigu and Putin have lost much support in the military and among officers, that important information wouldn't get to them, that he had much support among the population as Wagner were lauded as heroes, and took his chance. Not one motive but multiples ones and the most important probably being the threat for his life. Possibly he indeed was tired of Shoigu's incompetence and wanted him gone to reorganize the army.
He seemed to have judged many things much better than most of the Russian regime as they were caught completely off guard. That they took it very seriously is evidenced by Putin's and Lukashenko's evacuations. Anyway, probably a few of his deemed supporters didn't follow up or maybe when he was offered an offramp, he just took it. Better be exiled in Belarus than waiting for your inevitable assassination in Russia. His coup has now elevated him to a status in which it is hard to kill him without making him a martyr while the deal between him and Putin seems to be very basic (stop the rebellion and save your life in exchange) as both parties are still firing shots at each other. I don't think the last chapter in this has been written. Even if it would have been great for Ukraine if there had been even more turmoil, the outcome is still good. Wagner is more or less gone and the people that stand for the incompetence and corruption of state and military remain in charge. On top of it, insurgencies are only likelier now than they have been as Putin's reputation took a severe hit.
At this point I'm not clear why she doesn't quietly ask Zelensky to evict the Russian troops in Transnistria. They are apparently more of a police state presence than a proper fighting force, so Ukraine could use it as a training exercise to keep their non-front line troops sharp before they're sent to reclaim actual Ukrainian cities in Donbas. It would also free Moldova up to join NATO without fearing retribution from Putin since it would've been the Ukrainians who did the heavy lifting.
Further to the above.....
Whatever he prepared nobody in Rostov seemed to care.
I think it's got to do with the internal situation in the country. There are still many people who side with Russia. Plus, there is the issue in the southern region of Gagauzia following the recent local elections.
LFG
I think the thread title needs to be changed back (sadly).
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Lukaschenko rises
Next week it will be Even closer . Its like the club sale.
I am sure this coward is scared shitless. And I am sure that Putin has offered a lot of money to anyone that offs him.
I had no idea the time a small group of US forces wiped out a large group of Wagner soldiers had ties to recent infighting. Russian MOD screwed Pierogi-head over, hence the US's unlimited air superiority. I bet the feud goes further back though.
Here's a good article on the battle of Khassam if anyone wants ro read more on the subject.
https://thewarhorse.org/special-for...-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/
I remember reading about it in the Times. Always felt like that would have significant reverberations further down the line.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham
It’s pretty nuts all round.
She makes some good points including one I more or less mentioned in this thread as well which is that this "Rebellion" became a convenient tool to go full martial law on the population. What I missed is that he also relaxed the rules on who can join the military. She also mentions opening a second front and some other things. Whether it was staged or not, she makes some compelling arguments at minimum that this wasn't something that weakened Putin's position:
https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-coup-was-staged-putin-west-fell-it-opinion-1810035
https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-coup-was-staged-putin-west-fell-it-opinion-1810035
She has some good points and her interpretation is definitely possible, but the problem is, that it could also be totally different. But of course that's why this is an opinion piece, not presented as facts.
For example I am sure it's true that Prigozhin didn't believe he could take on the full army and national guard, but did he believe they were on his side, or did he know they were told to stand down by Putin to stage all this?
Prigozhin having actually big support, but then realising that his supporters in Moscow will chicken out and that he doesn't have enough support, would perfectly explain what happened as well.
Wagner apparently handing over it's heavy weaponry and going to Belarus without it to me signals that they are not going to open a new front in Ukraine, but of course I could be wrong there as well.
If I was a pilot of one of these planes I would be refusing to fly. Only a matter of time before they have mechanical issues and crash.
Or fly through a window