Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Dunno, but Prigozhin did something similar before his stunt. Could be there's a faction that is just tired of the non-stop bullshit?
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He was quickly sidelined and since then is complaining that it all wasn't done the right way (his way).
It fits what he is saying all the time about the war itself - that Russia didn't go all in to truly win stuff.
They are talking about 30 kilometers depth of defense lines, including trenches and mines everywhere. It is designed to maximize the causality of the UA and slow it down. Hopefully, they will supply UA with equipment that suits that ground condition. I would think normal combat tanks would not help much at this point as maneuvering is useless here, would they?
Dmitry Mishov, Russian airman who defected, gives BBC interview
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65867990
A military defector who fled Russia on foot has given a rare interview to the BBC, in which he paints a picture of an army suffering heavy losses and experiencing low morale.
Lieutenant Dmitry Mishov, a 26-year-old airman, handed himself into the Lithuanian authorities, seeking political asylum.
Dmitry said escaping from Russia in such dramatic fashion, with a small rucksack on his back, was his last resort.
He is among a small handful of known cases of serving military officers fleeing the country to avoid being sent to Ukraine to fight - and the only case of a serving airman that the BBC knows of.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65867990
A military defector who fled Russia on foot has given a rare interview to the BBC, in which he paints a picture of an army suffering heavy losses and experiencing low morale.
Lieutenant Dmitry Mishov, a 26-year-old airman, handed himself into the Lithuanian authorities, seeking political asylum.
Dmitry said escaping from Russia in such dramatic fashion, with a small rucksack on his back, was his last resort.
He is among a small handful of known cases of serving military officers fleeing the country to avoid being sent to Ukraine to fight - and the only case of a serving airman that the BBC knows of.
At this stage it's hard to see what Russia are really trying to achieve in Ukraine by dragging this war out. They can't take the whole country, they're are losing territory almost every day/week even if very slowly. They're losing soldiers every week, it's got to be hurting their economy long term, their standing internationally is in the toilet.
Even if the war slowed down to a stalemate there would never be real peace right along that entire frontier. So most of it likely couldn't be farmed or used for anything useful, especially given the mines/defensive structures they've placed there. Do the majority of the people in the territories they are occupying even really want them there? If they don't then they could end up with decades of civil unrest in those areas and them turning into economic sinkholes. From what Girkin has been saying recently life in the Donbas doesn't sound great either.
It all seems so pointless.
Even if the war slowed down to a stalemate there would never be real peace right along that entire frontier. So most of it likely couldn't be farmed or used for anything useful, especially given the mines/defensive structures they've placed there. Do the majority of the people in the territories they are occupying even really want them there? If they don't then they could end up with decades of civil unrest in those areas and them turning into economic sinkholes. From what Girkin has been saying recently life in the Donbas doesn't sound great either.
It all seems so pointless.
Trying to rationalize Putin's actions is a mistake, pure and simple*. As for the first point – like many autocrats who stay at power for decades he's used to outlasting his troubles; perhaps he still hopes that someone like Trump comes to power again and cuts off the military supply... it was certainly his plan at some point which doesn't mean that it was a good one though – he put himself in a corner where every move, which includes not moving at all, is a colossal loss.
*he says only to proceed with rationalizing
It's all beginning to stack up, worrying times for the Russian people.
How a worker exodus is wrecking the Russian economy – and Putin’s war (msn.com)
The worry is he's an old deluded bloke who hit his 70's - is he ever going to order a retreat or not keep throwing bodies into the war? He's got nothing to lose.
It is one of the most pointless wars that’s been fought. For what? Some misguided belief that a tyrant longs for old uSSR days. Using the excuse of NATO/EU/US/the west wanting to put Nukes in Ukraine. What a lot of unnecessary loss of life. How’s it going to end?
Putin went too far in, to pull out now. He miscalculated hard and his only hope now is, that Russia is able to suffer longer than the west and that the western society becomes tired of financing Ukraine. He believes that Russia's people are used to suffering, while the western spoiled society will start to riot soon. Especially if right wingers will soon win some elections in western states.
It's clear by now that nobody will win this war with a definitive, clear win like over the Nazis in WW2. It will be a war of attrition until the weaker side will start to push for negotiations. This can take a while, maybe even years. It all depends on how successful Ukraine will be on the battlefield and how long the west continue, or even ramp up their support. The more success, the earlier the negotiations. It's also no coincidence, that many western statements of late confirm the willingness of long term support. They want to make it clear to Putin that his hopes don't stand a chance.
IMO he's trying to keep it up until november 24 in the hope that his ole buddy wins the US election and significantly weakens the resolve of NATO to back the Ukrainians up. It's the only thing that makes any sense to me. Russia is simply not strong enough to conquer the Ukraine in it's entirety, much less hold it.
And to be honest I don't think he cares one bit about the life of people in the areas they've conquered or their opinions. He only sees the square kilometres he's added to Mother Russia and the ego boost of acquiring territory by force.
Geopolitically it's a disaster. Their economy will be hurting for a long time, they've lost hundreds of thousands to self imposed exile (massive brain drain as well), weakened their international standing and influence; NATO countries including Germany are increasing their military expenditure and the likes of Poland and Finland are angry and arming to the teeth. Not really I think what they were expecting before the launch of the "special operation"
Putin says Russia's demographic problems keep him awake at night so he's solving that by throwing men in working age into their deaths in thousands.
No worries, North-Korean slaves and Chinese will fill in the spots. They already advertise marriage with Chinese men.
Well true mate but I was hoping someone else in a position of power in Russia would start saying enough is enough. It looked like the recent Wagner rebellion might have been a catalyst but that turned out to be a wet fart of a coup.
Probably not, I've never wished death on anyone but for the sake of Russia someone over there needs to take him out.
It looks like he is trying to outlast the West but that seems like a foolish move given the Russian economy (even when it's going well) is roughly the size of Texas. The combined West (US/EU/UK) have much more capacity to continue this long term.
Betting on Trump is another foolhardy tactic, given he isn't guaranteed to get elected or not end up in jail. The man is hard to predict, I doubt he even knows what he'll be doing/saying on any given day. Trump might just as likely see helping Ukraine defeat Russia as a great opportunity for him to grandstand and act the hero. Who knows.
I don't disagree with you. I just cannot see what possible endgame he sees that isn't this gamble. He cannot win by conventional means.
No I'm not disagreeing either mate. That probably is his play it just seems like a stupid one. It's a bit mad that Putin used to have this image of being a smart political operator 4 steps ahead of his counterparts.
Oh yes! Twitter and YouTube are still full of people that swear that Putin is playing some kind of advanced 3D chess and we're dancing to his tune
"It's all part of his big plan!"I wonder what Russian troops in the trenches think of this. They could be sitting at home with a lovely Russian girl, having fun. Meanwhile they're risking their life in dirty trenches for a president who doesn't give a shit about them.
How much civilian/partisan presence is there in Mariupol? I would have thought the city was basically empty after the heavy fighting there.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/4/7409760/
Is that Chinder
Oh yes! Twitter and YouTube are still full of people that swear that Putin is playing some kind of advanced 3D chess and we're dancing to his tune
Yeah I imagine they're are bots or idiots. This whole fiasco has shown him up.
Didn't someone post an opinion piece from Newsweek or similar the other day, stating that the coup was 69d chess move and staged by putin?
Wolverines.
Big one. Some saying oil depot, but surely ammo dump to go up like that.
There are still many steps between Nato's involvement, article 5 and biblical apocalypse. If it really happens and Russia will do a false flag attack on the ZPP, much will depend on the damage and the radiation. Further, Russia will deny it of course and we have to prove it, which will be difficult, because Russia doesn't allow investigations, as we have seen earlier with the Kakhovka dam. We can expect, that China and some other corrupt states will believe Russia's version, no matter how ridiculous it may sound. So it could very well happen, that this potential catastrophe gets bogged down in endless discussions and both sides blaming each other. Let's just hope for now that Putin has not lost it completely. But the rhetoric doesn't sound promising.
I don’t think Putin’s denials will mean anything to the west. NATO will almost certainly take action if he deliberately attacks the biggest nuclear plant in the region.
I think it will be very complicated, as you say, if that happens (hopefully not for obvious reasons). NATO just can't decide by themselves and start bombing the Russians troops in Ukraine from planes, which is what I think they would do if they did. I don't believe they would put troops on the ground.
But that would be dangerous to do, as the Russia's response to that would be catastrophic as they would use nuclear weapons. The UN would do some voting that solves nothing there as usual. The most likely scenario would be NATO will just send more advanced weapons to the UA. Frankly, they should be sending those to them now, anyway.
I think 1 or 2 weeks ago the US said they weren't seeing signs of something going down at the plant but the Ukrainians seem to be insisting.