Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Who knew that allowing private military companies to form, freely recruit thousands of disenfranchised people from penal colonies and then use state resources to arm them with heavy weaponry like IFVs, MBTs and artillery would see them turn against the state when the state becomes weak?

I have to say. Putin for a long time enjoyed a reputation akin to an evil genius or puppet master here in the West. But in the last few years the facade has completely fallen. He should have stayed happy with his kleptocracy by milking the Russian state and people to the end of his days. But he had an ambition to build a great legacy and enter a pantheon of Russian leaders by expanding the borders of his huge state. And now he reminds me more of a Russian version of the British classic, pub-dwelling, bumbling, nationalist idiot full of “Great Empire” revanchism and bravado but very little intellect to back anything up.
 
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Night of the long knives, Prigozhin = Röhm.

If anything, Prigozhin might have looked at that episode and decided to act before be was summarily defenestrated. Go out all guns blazing.

Do wonder what effect, if any, this is having on the front lines. Hopefully Ukraine can take some sort of advantage, lob a couple storm shadows at some high value stuff.

Also is that weird insurrection still happening in Belgorod?
 
Who would have thought that army within an army made out of ex convicts might be a problem.
 
Real Name said:
Possible civil war in Russia?
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Nah, this will be over quickly and all forgiven (for now)

I might be wrong as I don’t know that much about the Wagner group, but pretty sure they’re backed up by the Russian army supplying them (eg ammunition, weapons, tanks, fuel etc - not to mention I don’t think they have any aerial weapons of any kind). Without any of that being supplied to them by Russia how are they going to march on Moscow?
 
Spark said:
Night of the long knives, Prigozhin = Röhm.

If anything, Prigozhin might have looked at that episode and decided to act before be was summarily defenestrated. Go out all guns blazing.

Do wonder what effect, if any, this is having on the front lines. Hopefully Ukraine can take some sort of advantage, lob a couple storm shadows at some high value stuff.

Also is that weird insurrection still happening in Belgorod?
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Exactly. Vlad should have brushed up on his history.
 
Can Putin not order Telegram to give control of Wagner accounts to the state? Telegram is a Russian company, no?
 
We need an rvn said:
Nah, this will be over quickly and all forgiven (for now)

I might be wrong as I don’t know that much about the Wagner group, but pretty sure they’re backed up by the Russian army supplying them (eg ammunition, weapons, tanks, fuel etc - not to mention I don’t think they have any aerial weapons of any kind). Without any of that being supplied to them by Russia how are they going to march on Moscow?
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They’re now controlling Russian army’s HQ in Rostov and all the military facilities there and in Voronezh, which was given up without a fight.
 
Spark said:
Night of the long knives, Prigozhin = Röhm.

If anything, Prigozhin might have looked at that episode and decided to act before be was summarily defenestrated. Go out all guns blazing.

Do wonder what effect, if any, this is having on the front lines. Hopefully Ukraine can take some sort of advantage, lob a couple storm shadows at some high value stuff.

Also is that weird insurrection still happening in Belgorod?
Click to expand...

I can't imagine, who this isn't quite positive for Ukraine. Even from the simplest point of view there's thousands of Wagner soldiers, who suddenly disappeared from the front and thus are bound to have left some gaps behind them. Not to mention that the forces that are supposed to meet them in Russia have to come from somewhere as well. And then there's the soft aspects of Putin looking weak and a lot of people's loyalty being put to the test or questioned.
 
We need an rvn said:
Nah, this will be over quickly and all forgiven (for now)

I might be wrong as I don’t know that much about the Wagner group, but pretty sure they’re backed up by the Russian army supplying them (eg ammunition, weapons, tanks, fuel etc - not to mention I don’t think they have any aerial weapons of any kind). Without any of that being supplied to them by Russia how are they going to march on Moscow?
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If Russian soldiers wanted to stop them, they would have and could have. Instead Wagner took control of lots of military facilities.

So the answer pretty simply is that the Russian army does support Wagner against the orders of the MoD - at least a quite significant part does.

At least enough that Wagner does not need to use lots of ammunition if most others are just standing around waving while Wagner drives by.
 
stefan92 said:
If Russian soldiers wanted to stop them, they would have and could have. Instead Wagner took control of lots of military facilities.

So the answer pretty simply is that the Russian army does support Wagner against the orders of the MoD - at least a quite significant part does.

At least enough that Wagner does not need to use lots of ammunition if most others are just standing around waving while Wagner drives by.
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What is the Russian army at this point? A mix of old disappointed veterans who's friends have been sent to death mixed with a lot of inexperienced unwilling conscriptees?
 
How mad is this guy. Will he nuke Ukraine if he gets power? Not sure of this is a good or bad thing.
 
Is Putin going to be willing to launch serious strikes within Russia is the question. Given he's mobilised a reluctant civilian population you can imagine many won't oppose Wagner on the ground.
 
Today it will be clearer how much support Prigozhin actually has inside Russia. But the longer this goes on, the better it gets for Putin. Prigozhin needs to keep up the pressure and continue towards Moscow as long as Russia's forces are still reluctant to engage Wagner.
 
Putin might not launch nukes against foreign nations, but, Wagner could become a real threat to him, certainly can't rule it out for this scenario.

Wonder what the world will say then, he would only be attacking his own country, words of condemnation, nothing more?
 
Morty_ said:
Putin might not launch nukes against foreign nations, but, Wagner could become a real threat to him, certainly can't rule it out for this scenario.

Wonder what the world will say then, he would only be attacking his own country, words of condemnation, nothing more?
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I’m pretty sure you can rule out Russia nuking itself :lol:
 
Morty_ said:
Putin might not launch nukes against foreign nations, but, Wagner could become a real threat to him, certainly can't rule it out for this scenario.

Wonder what the world will say then, he would only be attacking his own country, words of condemnation, nothing more?
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Oh, for god's sake, forget the nukes. It's just bullshit. Nobody will launch nukes.
 
For what it's worth, there is a sizeable Russian military presence in Ukraine that Putin could use to defeat Wagner. But that would mean leaving Ukraine.

Remarkable stuff.
 
Interesting to see who else comes out of the woodwork now. Putin has a long list of enemies both inside and outside the country, and they’ll likely never get a better opportunity to make a move than right now. Russian forces under pressure in Ukraine due to the counteroffensive, and internal turmoil with a military coup attempt. The scene is set.
 
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