Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Biden admin actively sabotaging Ukraine now? To me it still says they are winging it and haven’t clearly defined the war goals yet.

Feck Jake Sullivan, I say. There will be no tears on the day he will be given the boot out of that position as national security advisor.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[Carolina Red]

If there’s anything I’ve learned studying military history, it’s that cholera will feck up an army.

 

[TwoSheds]

As an aside to all the actual news in here, I was just reflecting on how many people used to talk about whether the citizens of the Donbas and Crimea perhaps actually wanted to be Russian rather than Ukrainian. I haven't heard anyone say that for a long time and I think that's probably reflective of how cruelly and incompetently the Russian war has been waged making it clear to citizens which side it would be better to be on.

Or are there still people saying it and I'm just not reading it?

 

[Mike Smalling]

They can’t hand out some water purification tablets?

 

[foolsgold]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

 

[VorZakone]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

Probably too early to say anything concrete.

 

[Member 123428]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

Just a few probing attacks at the moment to find defensive weaknesses. The bulk of the forces and weaponry haven’t been meaningfully committed yet.

 

[The Firestarter]

Feck sakes. Cholera in 2023.

 

[Raoul]

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Feck sakes. Cholera in 2023.

Outright pathetic when they boasted having the second best army in the world or so they thought.

 

[Raoul]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

Still feels like its early in the process, although the Ukrainians are making gradual progress.

 

[Carolina Red]

They can’t hand out some water purification tablets?

In Putin’s Russia, water purify you!

 

[stefan92]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

Tentative optimism. So far Russia is holding quite well and lost only a few settlements, but considering that Ukraine likely so far only used a small fraction of their freshly trained troops with western equipment and that there are reports that Russia had to move reserves around to hold while having key storage sites attacked makes it likely that they will break down at some point.

However could still be weeks at least of very little movement on the front line.

 

[TwoSheds]

So what happens if the Russians blow up the Zaporizhzhia cooling pond like the Ukrainians say they are planning? If the plant melts down what happens? Would the war have to stop?

 

[harms]

As an aside to all the actual news in here, I was just reflecting on how many people used to talk about whether the citizens of the Donbas and Crimea perhaps actually wanted to be Russian rather than Ukrainian. I haven't heard anyone say that for a long time and I think that's probably reflective of how cruelly and incompetently the Russian war has been waged making it clear to citizens which side it would be better to be on.

Or are there still people saying it and I'm just not reading it?

It was more relevant at the time, I guess? No one's doing opinion polls on whenever people would like to join Russia or stay in Ukraine in the middle of the war if you don't count fake referendums. And if we're not talking about "LPR/DPR", the rest of the Ukrainian Donbas is understandably extremely anti-Russian now (and no one knows what's really happening in LPR/DPR in terms of their genuine political opinions).

I do wonder what Crimeans think about it now for example and how much their minds are getting poisoned with propaganda. I do remember that different independent reports suggested that people in Crimea weren't too happy with how everything played out eventually – I'm talking before the 24th of February – since a lot of those who wanted to join Russia were basically thinking that the grass was greener on the other side. And once they became part of the system they realized that it wasn't.

 

[TwoSheds]

It was more relevant at the time, I guess? No one's doing opinion polls on whenever people would like to join Russia or stay in Ukraine in the middle of the war if you don't count fake referendums. And if we're not talking about "LPR/DPR", the rest of the Ukrainian Donbas is understandably extremely anti-Russian now (and no one knows what's really happening in LPR/DPR in terms of their genuine political opinions).

I do wonder what Crimeans think about it now for example and how much their minds are getting poisoned with propaganda. I do remember that different independent reports suggested that people in Crimea weren't too happy with how everything played out eventually – I'm talking before the 24th of February – since a lot of those who wanted to join Russia were basically thinking that the grass was greener on the other side. And once they became part of the system they realized that it wasn't.

All good points. Will be interesting to see what the opinions seem to be in any areas Ukraine might eventually liberate (assuming there any places with significant populations).

 

[VorZakone]

All good points. Will be interesting to see what the opinions seem to be in any areas Ukraine might eventually liberate (assuming there any places with significant populations).

The problem here seems to be that those who are pro-Ukraine likely fled in significant numbers. And of those who stayed, a part will be those with pro-Russian feelings.

I think there were even reports last year of Ukrainian troops sharing stories of being asked "why did you come here?" when they liberated a village.

 

[TwoSheds]

The problem here seems to be that those who are pro-Ukraine likely fled in significant numbers. And of those who stayed, a part will be those with pro-Russian feelings.

I think there were even reports last year of Ukrainian troops sharing stories of being asked "why did you come here?" when they liberated a village.

A lot can change in a year though.

 

[Raoul]

So what happens if the Russians blow up the Zaporizhzhia cooling pond like the Ukrainians say they are planning? If the plant melts down what happens? Would the war have to stop?

Wouldn't be the wisest move given that Zap is only about 330km from the Russian border. Vlad would also lose soft power among his few global supporters like China, Hungary and the like and would probably become completely isolated.

 

[Raoul]

As an aside to all the actual news in here, I was just reflecting on how many people used to talk about whether the citizens of the Donbas and Crimea perhaps actually wanted to be Russian rather than Ukrainian. I haven't heard anyone say that for a long time and I think that's probably reflective of how cruelly and incompetently the Russian war has been waged making it clear to citizens which side it would be better to be on.

Or are there still people saying it and I'm just not reading it?

Many Crimeans probably still want to remain a part of Russia. They did so before Putin invaded in 2014 and have probably been clobbered with non-stop Russian propaganda on TV and radio since. The fact that Crimea has largely evaded any fighting also helps the pro-Russia position. If the Ukrainians managed to go into the peninsula militarily and reclaim Crimea, they would still have some work to do in terms of deRussifying everything.

 

[the hea]

 

[Gehrman]

I think we are on 300.000+ casualties now. I admit we have had a plethora of pointless wars but it still just like WW1 pointlessness. I cant make a case that Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan werent equally pointless. But this war is just throwing everyone into the meatgrinder without any significant objective(from the Russian side).

 

[Dans]

I think we are on 300.000+ casualties now. I admit we have had a plethora of pointless wars but it still just like WW1 pointlessness. I cant make a case that Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan werent equally pointless. But this war is just throwing everyone into the meatgrinder without any significant objective(from the Russian side).

It's just a massive ego driven flex.

 

[The United]

In Rush to Arm Ukraine, Weapons Are Bought but Not Delivered, or Too Broken to Use

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/world/europe/ukraine-weapons-howitzers-contracts.html


The war probably helps NATO countries and even the US evaluate their own combat readiness with their equipment and their production.

 

[Raoul]

 

[The United]

It was more relevant at the time, I guess? No one's doing opinion polls on whenever people would like to join Russia or stay in Ukraine in the middle of the war if you don't count fake referendums. And if we're not talking about "LPR/DPR", the rest of the Ukrainian Donbas is understandably extremely anti-Russian now (and no one knows what's really happening in LPR/DPR in terms of their genuine political opinions).

I do wonder what Crimeans think about it now for example and how much their minds are getting poisoned with propaganda. I do remember that different independent reports suggested that people in Crimea weren't too happy with how everything played out eventually – I'm talking before the 24th of February – since a lot of those who wanted to join Russia were basically thinking that the grass was greener on the other side. And once they became part of the system they realized that it wasn't.

I think there will always be people who will not change their minds. On the other hand, though, was being in the UA's system better than what they have now? Now, I don't know much about the details, but the UA government was pretty much as corrupted as the RA and actually heavily involved with them back then ( I thought?). I mean, we are not talking about some regions of Germany, the UK, or France, some of whose population wanted to stay under Putin.

 

[The United]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

I pray for the UA to kick the RA out of the country for obviously reasons and to troll the crowd that says the Russians are so powerful and that even the whole NTAO can't beat them, etc.

But in reality, the RA still has tons of weapons and equipment, more so than the UA, even with what they got from NATO. The UA will gain a few ruined villages but probably will not be able to penetrate the RA's defensive lines in key areas. Then they will have to defend the RA's counterattacks. The war will be more or less a statement for awhile yet, with the RA terrorizing the UA's public.

The UA needs to have working modern weapons (a lot more so than what they have right now) to kick the RA out of their country.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[calodo2003]

 

[calodo2003]

 

[calodo2003]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Carolina Red]

Can’t say enough about someone who will put their life on the line to save another’s.

 

[frostbite]

I think we are on 300.000+ casualties now. I admit we have had a plethora of pointless wars but it still just like WW1 pointlessness. I cant make a case that Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan werent equally pointless. But this war is just throwing everyone into the meatgrinder without any significant objective(from the Russian side).

If we are talking about reasons for starting the war, this is more like WW2 than WW1. In WW1 you cannot blame only the Germans for starting the war, everyone was at fault in one degree or another, it was like a chain reaction. On the other hand, for WW2 the blame is 100% on Germany, and in this war the blame is 100% on Russia. Both WW2 and Ukraine are imperialistic wars, the goal is to conquer other nations, in this case to enlarge Russia (which is a huge difference from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan).

 

[2cents]

Is there much point in even taking notice of this stuff? All seems pretty clearly staged/coordinated/approved for whatever reasons.

 

[the hea]

Looks like Ukraine is trying to cut off all Russian supply lines coming from Crimea into southern Ukraine. Same tactics they used in Kherson last fall.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Simbo]

What's the general feeling for how the counter offensive is going ?

I'm reading a lot of very different takes all over the place, is it too early to say anything for sue?

Ukraine has been reporting consistent small gains for a couple weeks now. They don't appear to have suffered any significant losses and have barely committed much force, compared to what they are capable of. They also continue to hit strategic targets behind enemy lines on a daily basis. Still stage setting.

The reason they've slowed a bit (i'm not sure they actually have) appears to be due to Russia counter-attacking the counter-attack, which I expect is welcomed by Ukraine. Russia doesn't seem to want the defenders advantage, or isn't as confident in its much lauded "defensive lines" as some western commentators are.

Meanwhile, Russian internal politics don't appear to be improving for the better. There's a growing rift between Prigozhin and Shiogu and these Ukraine supplied anti-Kremlin Russians continue to operate in Belogrod.

Still to early to say anything for sure, but things mostly seem pretty positive from a Ukrainian point of view. They spoiled us with the speed they reclaimed Kharkiv/Kherson regions, so too many people have been hoping for something similar with the remaining territories I guess. Also, Russia is trying to push hard that they've "defeated the counter-attack". Their noise always filters through to western media.

 

[The United]

Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive ‘not meeting expectations,’ Western officials tell CNN

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html#:~:text=In its early phases, Ukraine's,one of the officials said.

“This is a very difficult fight, it is a very violent fight and It will likely take a considerable amount of time and at high cost,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said.

One of the main reasons for this is not being able to respond to the RA air capability effectively or having little air support. Which is something many predicted, including Zelensky. So, it is not exactly surprising. There are high casualties for the UA troops, as expected in any offensive operation, but not as high as the RA made out to be.