Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Wonder what happens if the Wagner lot refuse...
Prigozhin already did.

“Those orders and decrees that Shoigu forms, they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and to military personnel. PMC "Wagner" will not sign any contracts with Shoigu. PMC "Wagner" is organically built into the overall system, PMC "Wagner" coordinates its actions with the generals on the right, left, with unit commanders, has the deepest experience and is a highly effective structure. Unfortunately, most military units do not have such efficiency, and precisely because Shoigu cannot manage military formations normally. Therefore, the fact that he writes decrees or orders applies exclusively to the Ministry of Defense and to those who are within the Ministry of Defense. What can happen after this order - we will not be given weapons and ammunition - we will figure it out, as they say, when the thunder breaks out, they will come running and bring weapons and ammunition with a request "help".
As for subordination, of course, Wagner PMC is absolutely completely subordinate to the interests of the Russian Federation and the supreme commander in chief. On the territory, according to the orders of Gerasimov and Shoigu, Wagner PMC coordinates all its actions and performs the tasks set by Army General Surovikin. And since Surovikin is an intelligent, competent and experienced commander, the tasks that Wagner PMC developed together with Surovikin and carried out on his behalf showed a high level of efficiency and success.”
 

There appears to be a lot of good progress lately. Long may it continue.

On the other hand, do we know if they are breaking their first real defensive line? A lot of trolls (I hope) are saying that UA has not reached it yet.
 
There appears to be a lot of good progress lately. Long may it continue.

On the other hand, do we know if they are breaking their first real defensive line? A lot of trolls (I hope) are saying that UA has not reached it yet.

Yeh their supposed "defensive line" is about 10km down the road from where the fighting currently is in Zaporizhzhia.
 
There appears to be a lot of good progress lately. Long may it continue.

On the other hand, do we know if they are breaking their first real defensive line? A lot of trolls (I hope) are saying that UA has not reached it yet.

 
Hopefully, the UA has enough equipment to clear the mines ahead and ammunition to pound that line to dust.

Oh, and some gepards along with them in the field.
 
They are certainly putting a lot of faith in this "defensive line" judging by social media comments. I sure do hope it doesn't turn out to be just one big long target marker...
 
They are certainly putting a lot of faith in this "defensive line" judging by social media comments. I sure do hope it doesn't turn out to be just one big long target marker...
I think it is more like just trenches with minefields around them. I don't think they have enough to manage all of them at all. But it still makes it hard for the UA, as they won't know if certain sections are manned or not, slowing them down overall. The RA can just run around to exhaust the UA troops. Having some more airplanes and helicopters would make it a lot easier for the UA.

It would be interesting if the UA committed their main forces to the Northeast area now while making it look like they were going for the South.
 
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16 Bradley's lost.

Ukraine has lost 16 US-supplied armored vehicles in the past several days, according to open-source intelligence analysis, as the country’s military announced its forces had captured three villages from Russia in an offensive in the eastern Donetsk region.

The 16 US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles either destroyed or damaged and abandoned in recent days represent almost 15% of the 109 that Washington has given Kyiv, according to Jakub Janovsky of the Dutch open-source intelligence website Oryx, which has been collecting visual evidence of military equipment losses in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began on February 24, 2022.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/12/...efield-losses-progress-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
 
Russians shooting at their retreating pals:

Back to Stalinist methods, I mean this was already practiced by Wagner mercenaries around Bakhmut but for Russian army it’s a new low.
 
Some of these folks are being disingenous in my opinion or stating the obvious. No one worth taking seriously thought that this counter offensive would be free of casualties and it doesn't seem to me that that's the real controversy.

The real 'controversy' or question is whether Ukraine is using the "right" tactics under the circumstances or making the same mistakes for which we ridiculed the Russians.
 
Some of these folks are being disingenous in my opinion or stating the obvious. No one worth taking seriously thought that this counter offensive would be free of casualties and it doesn't seem to me that that's the real controversy.

The real 'controversy' or question is whether Ukraine is using the "right" tactics under the circumstances or making the same mistakes for which we ridiculed the Russians.

I do agree, this is the question a lot of people seem to be pondering, perhaps worrying about. I still think its fecking stupid to ask it though in such early stages, such tight opsec and mostly Russians for sources :lol:
 
Some of these folks are being disingenous in my opinion or stating the obvious. No one worth taking seriously thought that this counter offensive would be free of casualties and it doesn't seem to me that that's the real controversy.

The real 'controversy' or question is whether Ukraine is using the "right" tactics under the circumstances or making the same mistakes for which we ridiculed the Russians.
Ukraine has no other tactic is can use though? They don’t have effective air support so it’s going to be extremely costly attacking a dug in army with superior artillery. They’ve chosen to attack, I guess that’s probably the only question - would it have been wiser to wait longer and stockpile more NATO aid/train troops?

Russia were ridiculed because they had a 10-1 artillery advantage, were fighting a country without a navy or effective airforce and had manpower + armour advantages and still massively fecked up.
 
Ukraine has no other tactic is can use though? They don’t have effective air support so it’s going to be extremely costly attacking a dug in army with superior artillery. They’ve chosen to attack
There’s many different tactics to use under the attack umbrella. I believe that’s what he’s referring to there.
 
There’s many different tactics to use under the attack umbrella. I believe that’s what he’s referring to there.
I guess we won't actually know what they're trying to do until at least weeks from now - all we know is they are attacking a fortified defensive line against an enemy who outguns them without an air force - as much as most of the world hopes they succeed it seems very high risk. Not sure how there's any comparison with their current attack & how Russia fared attacking Ukraine at the start of the war which is what the poster said, differences in the scenario are pretty obvious.
 
Ukraine has no other tactic is can use though? They don’t have effective air support so it’s going to be extremely costly attacking a dug in army with superior artillery. They’ve chosen to attack, I guess that’s probably the only question - would it have been wiser to wait longer and stockpile more NATO aid/train troops?

Russia were ridiculed because they had a 10-1 artillery advantage, were fighting a country without a navy or effective airforce and had manpower + armour advantages and still massively fecked up.

Having eyes in the air (drones/satelites) and modern accurate artillery reduces the impact of air support. They know where russians soldiers are and they can target specific targets from a long distance with good enough accuracy. We're not in the carpet bombing era anymore.
 


Do they honestly believe that China will fly to Russia's rescue just like they did for North Korea in 1950, when those troops just came out as hardened veterans from a civil war before they eventually got wasted by UN forces? :lol:

I don't know what they drink, but I would take some if I need to escape reality.
 
Do they honestly believe that China will fly to Russia's rescue just like they did for North Korea in 1950, when those troops just came out as hardened veterans from a civil war before they eventually got wasted by UN forces? :lol:

I don't know what they drink, but I would take some if I need to escape reality.
I think he means Russia should have an army as big as China's, rather than have the actual Chinese one.
 
Having eyes in the air (drones/satelites) and modern accurate artillery reduces the impact of air support. They know where russians soldiers are and they can target specific targets from a long distance with good enough accuracy. We're not in the carpet bombing era anymore.
I think it would be very effective on trenches. Close air support would help a ton for any offensive campaign in many ways, especially in those open fields where the UA South is.
 
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I think it would be very effective on trenches. Close air support would help a ton for any offensive campaign in many ways, especially in those open fields where the UA South is.
The trenches usually have a low density of defenders in this war. While more traditional CAS would definitely be helpful, a bunch of drones dropping grenades on soldiers they discover is similarly effective and much more efficient.
 
The trenches usually have a low density of defenders in this war. While more traditional CAS would definitely be helpful, a bunch of drones dropping grenades on soldiers they discover is similarly effective and much more efficient.
We are not exactly talking about efficiency here, though. We are talking about getting this thing done in a quicker manner while saving as much UA manpower as possible. With decent air support (which they don't have), it could have been done.

I am not exactly sure how drones (that UA is currently using) would be more effective here than planes in this kind of offensive campaign. The drones are getting jammed a lot more now apparently and are not exactly effective against infantry. Not to mention the amount of ammunition a drone can carry. A lot of people were arguing that if the UA had a decent air force, the RA would have been gone a long time ago. I doubt anyone would say that about the drones.
 
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Ukraine has no other tactic is can use though? They don’t have effective air support so it’s going to be extremely costly attacking a dug in army with superior artillery. They’ve chosen to attack, I guess that’s probably the only question - would it have been wiser to wait longer and stockpile more NATO aid/train troops?

Russia were ridiculed because they had a 10-1 artillery advantage, were fighting a country without a navy or effective airforce and had manpower + armour advantages and still massively fecked up.
The tactic, especially against the trenches, would be interesting. I wonder if the UA would have a different tactic to counter the RA in trenches.

One of the reasons the convicts of Wagner got the Bakhmut in the end was that, according to the UA soldiers, the RA soldiers would just hide in the holes no matter what the situation was outside. Then, once the UA passed, they would come out and shoot them from behind. Eventually, it was too much for the UA to keep doing it. I can see the RA doing same here with UA losing many men, even if the RA does not have enough manpower to man the trenches because they don't have to do that.
 
We are not exactly talking about efficiency here, though. We are talking about getting this thing done in a quicker manner while saving as much UA manpower as possible. With decent air support (which they don't have), it could have been done.

I am not exactly sure how drones (that UA is currently using) would be more effective here than planes in this kind of offensive campaign. The drones are getting jammed a lot and are not exactly effective against infantry. Not to mention the amount of ammunition a drone can carry. A lot of people were arguing that if the UA had a decent air force, the RA would have been gone a long time ago. I doubt anyone would say that about the drones.
In general I agree, but we discussed the trenches. And for that specific case air support can be replaced quite well by drones and additional artillery IF those can operate well. And that's where traditional CAS aircrafts like the A-10 shine, destroying more or less armoured vehicles etc (including EW equipment like the jammers you mentioned).

So yes of course better air force capabilities would help Ukraine, but they wouldn't be used or needed for carpet bombing of trenches first.
 
In general I agree, but we discussed the trenches. And for that specific case air support can be replaced quite well by drones and additional artillery IF those can operate well. And that's where traditional CAS aircrafts like the A-10 shine, destroying more or less armoured vehicles etc (including EW equipment like the jammers you mentioned).

So yes of course better air force capabilities would help Ukraine, but they wouldn't be used or needed for carpet bombing of trenches first.
Well, yeah, carpet bombing stuff is just for countries with a lot of money and bombs. But it could affect their mental capacity while hiding in the holes with hell going on just above their heads.
 
Having eyes in the air (drones/satelites) and modern accurate artillery reduces the impact of air support. They know where russians soldiers are and they can target specific targets from a long distance with good enough accuracy. We're not in the carpet bombing era anymore.
Drones really have come to the fore this war - Ukraine/Russia were already world leaders in the area but the usage of them to now even take on and prove successful against armour has probably got a lot of countries rethinking their airforce somewhat. That said, you can't really compare those capabilities to attack helicopters or jets for targeting armour which really is what Ukraine is reliant on for this push and reports say the South is where the Russian air force is able to operate most actively.
 
I think he means Russia should have an army as big as China's, rather than have the actual Chinese one.
Nope, she's quite clear on what she says – she says that Russia needs the Chinese army (or, rather, its soldiers).